Full displays of results:
Brisbane City Council wards election
11.42pm. My system has the Greens ahead in Paddington now, but slightly behind in Walter Taylor.
10.50pm. The ABC computer has different ideas from mine about a couple of things, notably Paddington, which it’s (again) calling for the Greens while mine has the LNP with its nose in front. This points to the difficulty of projection off an election that was held at the height of COVID, which dramatically changed how people voted. The Greens have a solid lead on the TCP count so far, but this is well behind the count for the primary vote.
10.08pm. One bright note for Labor is that they seem to have come to life in LNP-held Calamvale, which is now rated a likely Labor gain by both me and the ABC. That could see them break even after the loss of Wynnum-Manly, giving them the weak bragging right of not having done worse than last time. The ABC has retracted its call of Paddington as a Greens gain from the LNP — it and Walter Taylor both look very close.
9.54pm. I also note the ABC isn’t calling Ipswich West for the LNP — it’s projecting 52.6% TCP for the LNP whereas I have 53.2%. Mysteries abound — the TCP results on the ECQ site lag far behind the media feed, and actually have Labor ahead (from 6501 votes compared with 14,375 on the feed).
9.52pm. Actually, that’s not the reason my system is being more conservative about Walter Taylor than the ABC’s. I note that every ward result on the ABC says “0 of x centres reporting a preference count”, but preference counts have assuredly been reported. I’m not sure if this is purely a cosmetic issue or if the ABC is working entirely off preference estimates.
9.38pm. So Labor look like they are down from five BCC wards to four, having lost Wynnum-Manly to the LNP. The Greens are in the hunt in LNP-held Paddington and Walter Taylor, which both look very close, to add to their existing The Gabba. The ABC is calling Paddington for the Greens, so I suspect there is an issue here of my preference estimate selling them short — that will be corrected when a few more TCP results are through. However, their second tier hopes of Central, Coorparoo and Enoggera don’t look like coming through for them, so they will not emerge as the second strongest party.
9.35pm. I’ve devoted the last half hour to bug-hunting, at least partly because my read of a Labor disaster in the BCC ward of Wynnum-Manly didn’t seem to gel with the ABC — but now it does. That’s not to say there weren’t bugs though, one of which was stopping the two-candidate preferred tables from populating on the council wards results pages. That has now been fixed.
9.18pm. It’s been noted by preference estimates, which get used before two-candidate preferred numbers report, have been selling the Greens short in seats where they are challenging the LNP. I now have them ahead in Paddington, and a correction should soon come through in their favour in Walter Taylor.
8.41pm. A strong showing by the Greens in Labor-held Moorooka ward, where they look like taking second place from the LNP, but Labor still on track to retain it.
8.38pm. As well as Wynnum-Manly, I’m now projecting the LNP ahead in the Labor-held BCC ward of Morningside, suggesting they could be reduced to three seats. That at least raises the possibility of them being outperformed by the Greens, although it’s far from clear at this stage if they will add anything to their existing solitary seat of The Gabba (which is yet to record any figures) — there are four possibilities, but they’re not actually ahead in any of them.
8.34pm. Paddington still looks like a very close race between the LNP and the Greens with three booths in.
8.30pm. My system is now calling Ipswich West for the LNP. The projected swing in Inala is even bigger, but so is Labor’s buffer there.
8.21pm. My system is now calling six wards for the LNP, one of which is Enoggera.
8.19pm. Early figures suggest Labor are in big danger of losing Wynnum-Manly to the LNP, one of only five BCC wards they held going into the election.
8.18pm. The LNP looks like retaining Enoggera regardless of who comes second out of Labor and the Greens — my system is now favouring the latter. This was one of five LNP-held wards the Greens had identified as possible gains. Of their two presumed strongest chances, Paddington looks lineball and there is nothing in yet from Walter Taylor. Too early to say about their other second tier prospects of Coorparoo and Central.
8.13pm. While Adrian Schrinner is headed for re-election as Lord Mayor, he’s faded on my projection as the count has progressed, with a slight booth-matched swing away from him now recorded on the primary vote.
8.10pm. The good news for Labor is that my system is calling Inala for them. The bad news is that the swing is similar to the one that’s putting it on the cusp of calling Ipswich West for the LNP.
8.08pm. Early indications also point to a close LNP-Greens race in Paddington, where the Greens fancied their chances.
8.06pm. The first booth from the BCC Enoggera ward has the Greens second, but my projection has them behind Labor in a fairly close race for second. The LNP vote looks high enough for them to hold either way, but early days yet.
8.04pm. The Brisbane City booth gives the Greens an encouraging first result in the BCC’s Coorparoo ward — only 168 votes, but it points to a chance they will take it from the LNP, consistent with the party’s own expectations.
8.02pm. A booth in at last from Inala, and there too there is a huge swing to the LNP of over 20% according to my projection, with Labor’s primary vote collapsing 32.5% to 37.8%. No doubt Annastacia Palaszczuk had a big personal vote here, but still. Independent Linh Nyugen on double figures, presumably taking a bit from Labor. Bad as all this is for Labor, it doesn’t suggest they are in serious danger of losing.
8.00pm. It’s been noted that the informal vote in Ipswich West is out from 4.0% to 8.6%, which no doubt has a lot to do with an optional preferential voting council election being held on the same day as a compulsory preferential voting state by-election. Presumably this isn’t doing Labor any favours.
7.58pm. An eleventh booth in Ipswich West was obviously not good for Labor, pushing my projection of the LNP lead out from (from memory) 1.9% to 2.5% and increasing their win probability to 95%.
7.52pm. Substantial progress now in the mayoralty count, confirming what was noted before — Adrian Schrinner holding steady on his 2020 vote, and movement from Labor to the Greens but not enough to get the latter’s candidate, Jonathan Sriranganathan, to second.
7.50pm. The swing in Ipswich West continues to be big enough to make the LNP firm favourites when quite getting them to where my system would call it. The Brisbane council ward of Tennyson has been called for independent incumbent Nicole Johnston, who looks to be doing it easily.
7.43pm. Note that my mayoralty entry page does things like say certain wards have been “retained” by the LNP, which simply means Schrinner is projected to win there again. The system is geared to seat-style contests and I didn’t have time to finesse everything.
7.42pm. The lack of any action from Inala had me checking the ABC to make sure it wasn’t a fault in my system, but no, still no numbers there yet.
7.40pm. Some big lord mayoralty numbers in now, and the situation has settled quite considerably — it now looks like a status quo result with a bit of a swing from Labor to the Greens, rather than historic disaster Labor seemed to be suffering at first. Presumably this will start flowing through to the council ward results shortly.
7.37pm. Labor has perked up a little on my Ipswich West win probability with the reporting of a third two-candidate result, which presumably improved their projected preference flow.
7.33pm. On Brisbane Council, my system is now calling Bracken Ridge and LNP retain, which a huge swing blowing out what was hitherto a fairly tight margin.
7.31pm. My system has actually crossed the threshold where it’s not using my preference estimates in Ipswich West. So the 10% Labor win probability should probably be taken seriously at this point.
7.30pm. Eight booths in now on the primary vote — fast count there, slow one in Inala. Perhaps they’re prioritising by-election and council votes differently. In any case, the new Ipswich West results do not change what was written in the previous update.
7.28pm. Booth number five from Ipswich West is also less bad for Labor, being comparable to the last two. But I may have been wrong to say these booths were coming in below what the LNP needed to win the seat — I was just looking at the Labor primary vote (a lot on my plate at present). The LNP primary vote swing across the board is approaching 20%, which makes them look very dangerous. Legalise Cannabis are soaking up votes from the absent Greens and a lot depends on their preferences. My current projection assumes they will go 60-40 to Labor, but if they’re loaded with Greens voters they may get a stronger flow than that. Once there are enough two-candidate preferred votes in, my projection will go off the swing on preferences rather than my estimates.
7.20pm. From four wards, I’m recording LNP two-party swings of 4.2% to 15.0% for the lord mayoralty. It’s a similar story for the council, albeit that these are the same booths. So Labor would seem in big danger at this early stage of going backwards.
7.17pm. Two further booths from Ipswich West are better for Labor — seemingly a tad below what would cost them the seat. The two booths that came in first were well above that, so Labor will have to be hoping both were outliers. Still nothing from Inala.
7.16pm. My system is calling McDowall ward for the LNP and sees big LNP swings everywhere that a swing can be determined.
7.10pm. I’ve turned off some features that were misfiring on the mayoralty landing page. However, the primary vote numbers are suggesting a very good night for the LNP and not just in Ipswich West.
6.53pm. Remarkable first results from Ipswich West had me checking the ABC to see if there was something amiss in my system, but it concurs the LNP swing is blowing the hinges off. Still early days, but the fact that the ALP has been trounced in two booths will be giving them palpitations.
6.47pm. I’m hoping the screwiness on the lord mayoralty landing page at present will resolve when there are some numbers in that aren’t mobile booths.
6.37pm. To elaborate on that point, the swing results I have for the mobile booths are meaningless — in most cases there were zero mobile results last time, so I think I just gave them a fraction of a vote from the central pre-polling booth so the system would have something to work off. Everywhere else, the swing figures will be based on booth-to-booth comparison.
6.35pm. Two mobile booths in for the lord mayoralty, with the same issues noted in the previous update. The chart and dial on my lord mayoralty landing page won’t show anything until two-candidate preferred results are reported. Ordinarily I run projections based on the primary vote, but didn’t have time to do that in this case. A little perversely, I have projections for the mayoral results at ward level, but not overall. As always, another day to do all this would have been handy.
6.23pm. A mobile polling booth has reported 102 council ward votes in Bracken Ridge. Caution would be required here at the best of times, but especially on this occasion where mobile polling was just about non-existent last time because of COVID, making any swing figure meaningless.
6.20pm. One of the things I didn’t have time to do was code around a recurring issue where sometimes empty XML files get uploaded to my server, so I suspect there will be the odd occasion where you find the page hasn’t been filled out with data. If so, you should find it resolves after a minute or two.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland local government elections and Inala and Ipswich West state by-elections. The links above will take you to the Poll Bludger’s own live results pages, which I’m reasonably confident will work well in the case of the by-elections, but merely hopeful in the case of the Brisbane Lord Mayor and council elctions, which were a pretty huge undertaking and for which I was still squashing bugs up to the last, which is usually not a good sign. In any case, the first results should presumably be in in around half an hour or so.
Yes, there’s bugs in my preference estimates. Once a certain amount of the TCP count is in they stop being used, which is presumably why Holland Park is back to 53-47 now.
“ Not much, but he’s perceived as a buffoon, which is a turn off for Female voters.
Think Trump, without the charm!”
That leads to a fairly obvious question… Why? Is there nobody better?
Steven Miles laughing at a press conference in the midst of a crime wave wasn’t a good look. And he always has that deer in the headlights look about him. No doubt a decent bloke, but he is the puppet of the union bosses and totally beholden to their interests.
Democracy Sausage wrote, “Steven Miles laughing at a press conference in the midst of a crime wave wasn’t a good look. And he always has that deer in the headlights look about him. No doubt a decent bloke, but he is the puppet of the union bosses and totally beholden to their interests.”
Hey Buddy, the last time I checked, the ALP was the political wing of the trade union movement. Maybe if they did a little more to serve the interests of working class people, the party wouldn’t be on the receiving end of such a drubbing.
This is definitely a bad result for the ALP , it could be argued that the candidates lost the personal vote of previous members and that the voters were pissed off about having to vote but this is not good for the government no matter how you look at it. The LNP is now in the box seat and people will know what is in front of them. These results are proof of the bad polls. The spotlight now moves to the LNP and what they will do as the government waiting, will they remove the extra resources royalties that pay for electricity subsidies and a range of services , what are the policies on climate change,sale of assets, public service cuts ,land clearing etc. etc.
Vensays:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 10:55 pm
Nobody can sugar coat disasters in Inala and Ipswich West by-election results.
I hope coming QLD state election won’t be like another 2012 landslide for LNP.
=========================================================
Ven – It will be a big landslide victory to the LNP come October. Nothing Miles or Albo can do about it.
The Inala “primary collapse” is now at over 30%, with 58% counted. It will drop back below 30%, but this figure is horrific and eclipses the brutal Penrith swing of around 24%.
Do a bit of research on the Penrith 2010 by-election or perhaps the NSW posters can explain what happenned. There are by-elections which deliver a “thanks for coming” result (like Deakin), there are by elections which deliver a slap on the wrist with a piece of salad (like Dunkley a couple of weeks ago), and then there are by-elections which deliver a baseball bat to the face (like Inala, or Penrith, or Canberra federally in 1995).
Soc,
Miles comes across as extremely arrogant.
In particular, his smirking put down of the journo who asked about crime a few of days after the grandmother’s murder in Redbank was appalling, and was generally received as such by the public.
It’s a continuation of perspective on Miles that he developed as Palaszczuk’s head kicker.
I see mayor Quimby in him.
Labour stalwarts and Miles tomorrow:
Nothing to see here. Completely expected in a by election. How bad are the LNP?
Bass 1975
nadia88 at 10.01 pm
“Federal Implications of tonight’s QLD Council elections: None”.
The implication of the Qld state by-elections is that the federal election will be after the Qld one.
Queensland is different than elsewhere but the result in Ispwich West puts to bed the idea since the last federal election that progressive women candidates always beat LNP men.
Dandy Murray
“ Miles comes across as extremely arrogant.”
Well that is fatal. I haven’t followed the grandmother story closely because while I understand it is tragic I despise law and order beat ups in politics. But laughing is a terrible response.
Socratessays:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 10:50 pm
I haven’t been following Qld politics much lately apart from talking to my nephews. What is the concern with Steven Miles? What has he done?
==============================================
Soc.
* Miles hasn’t done anything. He is simply seen as being a bit childish.
* He comes across similar to one of those rotating clowns at a theme park where you pop a ball into it’s mouth and hope for a prize. ie: vacuous
* The expectation in Qld is that adult men should behave like men, and not like some sort of giggling clown.
* The perception is that he seems to laugh and joke at inappropriate issues. It may be personal nervousness, or the way the media presents him, but I would rather have Palusczuk/Newman/Bligh/Bjelke Peterson/Borbidge or Beattie at the helm when we have our next serious cyclone/flooding event.
* The better choice (post Palusczuk) would have been Cameron Dick – steady pair of hands and he comes across as mature and on top of his brief.
Because he’s one person versus 17 million characters of xml.
Anyone got an informed opinion on how Central Ward might go from here ?
Seems like it’s getting tighter.
p.s. Dandy, if that was a reply to my earlier quickly deleted tweet, I realised I was looking at the wrong page (Mayoral race instead of ward race)
Looks like Labor might have more bite than first thought in the north and south of Brissy. ABC is showing decent chances for Labor in the northern cluster of Marchant / Northgate (plus the safe Deagon) and the southern cluster of Calamvale / Runcorn (plus the safe Moorooka / Forest Lake).
I’m sure this will be fixed shortly, but ABC computer just had LNP gaining The Gabba by
“-1,025 votes” though the graphic still shows The Greens with well over 50% TCP as you’d expect.
The bug gives some insight into how AG’s software is written. Eg. in dot point form we’re told
* Laura Wong in upset victory for LNP.
* Trina Massey defeated after 2023 appointment.
Where have all the Brisbane City Council figures gone?
Long time passing
Am I right in thinking that Miles is from the left faction and Dick from the right? And that the left faction has been getting stronger internally in Qld (albeit under pressure electorally by the Greens in some of their heartlands seats)? Might explain why it was thought that he had to be given a turn.
I don’t follow QLD politics closely but concur with the view that Miles isn’t very impressive. Lots of obvious phoniness in the way he presents: phoney outrage, phoney concern. Reminds me a bit of Brendan Nelson.
All politicians are phoneys, but some are better actors than others. And some are smarter too.
Seriously bad results for Queensland Labor, and heading for a drubbing in line with the NSW 2011 result.
As a non Queenslander, it’s a mystery to me as to the source of the anti Labor sentiment. In 2011, NSW Labor was plagued with scandals and leadership instability.
If the electoral sentiment reflects hostility to Miles the political calculus is a difficult one. Numbers will be counted. But if the anger is personal, Miles needs to go, and give Dick a few months to have a shot at clawing back some support.
Outsider: There are no real bad issues for Labor other than the hyped up youth crime issue. An issue like this is likely to cause Labor some pain in the regions especially far north Qld where our Murdoch media reports youth crime as a problem. Qld is a huge place and I am closer to Sydney than any of these centres in what is known as far Q so I’ve no idea of the voracity of this media campaign. The Qld economy is in good shape, we own our assets so government can help with electricity rebates, huge surplus, interstate migration at record levels, government working hard to solve housing crisis.The thing is our media is very partisan and dictates the debate. They support the LNP and highlight all ALP negatives and never the positives. The ABC and commercial news picks up on these themes. If there is anything positive to take from last night it’s that we now will focus on the opposition as likely to win the government . They have not released any policies and have coasted along on the culture of complaint. The government beyond all of this criticism is actually pretty competent and miles is a smart guy. It will interesting to see if this result means an inevitable win and panic in ALP ranks or will it focus the public on the consequences of an LNP rule and the fact that they will very likely be just Cando Newman pt.2.
Outsider @ #121 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 6:52 am
Both these state seats are Ipswich based. Several factors:
An Ipswich woman was dumped as Premier in favour of a Brisbanite.
There was a stabbing murder of a grandmother in an Ipswich shopping centre recently which the LNP has played up to a moral panic.
Ipswich is a fast growing residential area with lots of pressure on infrastructure.
All fertile ground for a protest vote. Whether the same effect will be seen in a general election remains to be seen.
QLD LABOR VOTERS, LET ALONE QLD VOTERS, DON’T LIKE STEVEN MILES. PERIOD.
HE HAS TO GO.
Cameron Dick is in his late 50s and has no chance of ever becoming Premier if Labor loses this election, unless he and his party decide he can be their Joe Biden. The best, and only way he can become Premier is if Labor dump Miles and give him a few months of lame-duck leadership during which they might salvage some of the furniture and only lose to the extent of the 2013-Federal election loss.
clem attlee says:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 11:15 pm
Democracy Sausage wrote, “Steven Miles laughing at a press conference ….
Hey Buddy, the last time I checked, the ALP was the political wing of the trade union movement. Maybe if they did a little more to serve the interests of working class people, the party wouldn’t be on the receiving end of such a drubbing.
——————-
The neo Liberal Labor Party have abandoned working class people, and when these people fall into poverty from job loss, domestic violence or illness.
Poverty benefits for welfare recipients and their children too low. Funding to help the 1 in 6 children living in poverty while young and at a public school only minimal, while Labor supports funding wealthy religious schools and wealthy people.
Housing for low income rentals almost non existent, limited builds is Labor policy.
Public hospitals are funded less than the need when a big immigration policy is the choice of the Albanese government. Apparently over 125,000 people, expecting permanent residency entered Australia in January. Plus the over 600,000 from July 2022 to July 2023, and around 300,000 from July 2023 to 2024.
dailytelegraph.com.au
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au
March 14, 2024. Migration surge ‘a disaster for families’ as January records highest arrival intake yet
2 days ago — Australia’s migration intake hit record numbers in January despite the Albanese government’s plan to slow the surge of new arrivals, …
Fortunately the Sydney Daily Telegraph reports facts Labor wants to keep secret.
High immigration is for business needs. They say. Supporting and training poorer Australians not their interest.
Federal and State Labor policy.
Irene @ #126 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 8:00 am
More boilerplate text. No engagement with the actual topic
ajm says:
Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 10:05 am
Irene @ #126 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 8:00 am
No engagement with the actual topic
—————
Right on topic. The topic is why State Labor is losing votes. But these facts you may not want to know. Why 2/3rds of voters don’t give Labor their first preference in elections since 2019. Or opinion polls.
They are hoping Labor will change their policies. And that includes state Labor. Clem is right. But no evidence so far they will.
The neo Liberal Labor Party have abandoned working class people, and when these people fall into poverty from job loss, domestic violence or illness.
@Irene
Irene its funny that you suggest Labor abandons the working class, but your happy to dump on Labor when it goes ahead with Fossil Fuel projects. Labor has alot of working members and union members in those industries. That rely on these projects for their lively hoods. And they would face job losses without a proper transition into new industries. Which takes time and is easier said then done. Of course, you hide behind it making vague generalisations that Labor are getting millions from the coal industry without any references. You can’t have it both ways.
Cameron Dick is in his late 50s and has no chance of ever becoming Premier if Labor loses this election, unless he and his party decide he can be their Joe Biden. The best, and only way he can become Premier is if Labor dump Miles and give him a few months of lame-duck leadership during which they might salvage some of the furniture and only lose to the extent of the 2013-Federal election loss.
@MelbourneMammoth
Terrible idea. Cameron Dick and Kevin Rudd scenarios are two different kettle of fish. And Rudd was Prime Minster who Queenslanders, and other Australians felt he was robbed. Dick hasn’t been robbed of anything, and he doesn’t have the popularity to match Rudd. And I generally think if Labor was to do that they would be viewed like NSW Labor in 2011 or CLP in 2016. Where they are in a state of disarray, and are changing leaders like they are changing underpants. I think Labor’s best bet is stay with Steven Miles, but I accept it’s going hard for Miles to peg it back from here.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 10:18 am
The neo Liberal Labor Party have abandoned working class people, and when these people fall into poverty from job loss, domestic violence or illness.
@Irene
Irene its funny that you suggest Labor abandons the working class, but your happy to dump on Labor when it goes ahead with Fossil Fuel projects. Labor has alot of working members and union members in those industries. That rely on these projects for their lively hoods. And they would face job losses without a proper transition into new industries. Which takes time and is easier said then done. Of course, you hide behind it making vague generalisations that Labor are getting millions from the coal industry without any references. You can’t have it both ways.
——.————
Maybe you don’t believe in global warming. Burning fossil fuels- coal, oil and gas, releases heating emissions, CO2 (and the mining of coal releases the more dangerous methane) that stays in our closed atmosphere and so increases air temperatures. And some is absorbed in oceans to increase water temperatures.
These are facts. We are seeing increasing heating in air and sea temps now. And the effects will be and are sea level rises, more extreme weather events, a warmer world. More insect spread, less snow, this is known by the majority of the world. Who aren’t influenced by Murdoch media who is holding progress on fossil fuel elimination back. Hence Dutton with his Nuclear rubbish.
The aim is not to stop existing coal mines or gas drilling, but to stop future ones. And this is what Labor refuses to do. Donations from Santos, other coal mining interest, giving them good tax deductions while expecting working class people to pay more of their fair share of pay in tax. Is Labor’s plan, while not providing good services for them.
So your working class miners and gas drillers would keep their jobs, even while the effects of global warming are growing. Zips your argument.
Don’t forget some mines, power stations (Liddell in the Hunter, Eraring may soon too) have closed already. As the owners know their product is becoming more expensive than renewable energy.
The best Labor can do for their workers is to increase renewable energy quickly near these mines. And for some workers to move to that field . Are they? Think many renewable projects are elsewhere.
Irene
The neo Liberal Labor Party have abandoned working class people, and when these people fall into poverty from job loss, domestic violence or illness.
—————–
If both parties kept to their original bases the electoral map would look very different so people saying labor has abandoned the working class miss the point the labor party had to change to remain competitive or become like the Liberals.
People think younger people are becoming more left lending but are they or is it more the right has refused to embrace what younger people want so making them look left lending. Some in the Labor party get this and that’s why they try to balance their base and what the broader electorate wants.
Aged care workers won big pay rises and labor supports that so what working class are they abandoning or is this the left’s version of go further right to a base that just doesn’t exist in today’s Australia.
Labor in Queensland would have been better with Cameron Dick as Leader, Miles is seen like the Morrison as a goody two shoes. Sorry Labor has the wrong leader in Queensland.
Maybe you don’t believe in global warming.
@Irene
Don’t try and divert the issue. I do believe in global warming, but you dump on Labor with these projects. But generally don’t care what happens to these workers. But then have the nerve to opportunistically starting putting the boot into Labor for job losses which is causing poverty. And there has to be a clear path to transition. Which you think is simple as clicking your fingers and it’s not. It’s going to take time.
@princeplanet while high level numbers might suggest the state is in good shape (eg surplus, unemployment, etc) I’m not sure that is the feeling on the ground. Tent cities popping up around the city in places like Musgrave Park and Roma St.
ajm said:
‘Both these state seats are Ipswich based.’
Inala is part of Brisbane, residents also voted in Yesterday’s BCC Election.
Ipswich starts at Goodna
‘Several factors:
An Ipswich woman was dumped as Premier in favour of a Brisbanite.
There was a stabbing murder of a grandmother in an Ipswich shopping centre recently’
Palaszczuk has no ties to Ipswich, the stabbing murder at Redbank Plains is a long way from Inala.
I’d say Inala Labor’s lost the Vietnamese community, possibly some of the Aboriginal community.
Figures very similar to the Voice No vote., a few Aborigines handed out for NO, they were heckled by some non Aboriginal people.
Basically the same old story, Labor taking their Ethnic vote for granted, poor behaviour by Greens cadres at the Voice Referendum came back to bite Labor.
Miles is no doubt a hard working bloke, his problem is how he comes across in a news conference or a public setting, he often looks to me like a deer caught in the headlights, just very awkward and nervous – the smiling or giggling is probably his way of dealing with all that.
Sure, if state Labor governs well for the next 6 months and the youth crime situation calms down, they can probably run a fear campaign against the LNP and evoke the spirit of Campbell Newman, BUT the results in Ipswich West and Inala are reminiscent of the Mundingburra byelection in 1995, which signalled the end of the Goss Government back then.
Yes, Cameron Dick would have been the better choice to replace the long serving Premier, but alas for him the right in QLD isn’t as powerful as the left, so he’s really got no chance unless there’s a total panic and he’s elevated as a furniture saving option for the election.
I think there comes a point in the life of a long standing government when the public stop listening, no matter how many apparently good things are being done to improve their lives, such is the situation currently with the Miles Government.
In more bad news, Townsville mayor Jenny Hill (ALP) is reportedly (per Townsville Bulletin) 1500 behind ‘independent’ candidate Troy Thompson.
Mr Thompson was the One Nation candidate for Thuringowa (Townsville outer suburbs) in 2020, and was apparently backed by the “North Queensland Freedom Network” whoever they are.
The following post from a supporter, well, speaks for itself really…. “Townsville is a major Freemason city!!!!!!! All judiciary in this country has sold us out and are following the new world order agenda. They are corporations with an ABN no. Do some research, its all there to see. Government, tax office, councils, law courts etc. We need to wake up Aussies and get them out and start again under sovereignty that our Anzacs fought and died for!!!!”
https://rumble.com/v4cbgwr-nqfn-troy-thompson-for-mayor-of-townsville.html
‘BUT the results in Ipswich West and Inala are reminiscent of the Mundingburra byelection in 1995, which signalled the end of the Goss Government back then.’
The situation was different.
Goss had narrowly won the 1995 State Election [by 1 Seat], the Court of Disputed Returns ordered a rerun in Mundingburra.
The Sitting Labor Member was defeated, so the Government changed hands.
The issue was that Liberal votes from ADF serving in Somalia may not have been counted in Mundingburra in 1995.
Obviously, the Diggers had a look at the results from their Booth, said,
“Hang on a tic, this can’t be right”, and the rest is history.
Which reminds me, whatever happened to ‘Truthy’ who from memory was from up that way and used to post hat he should be able to set his own speeding limits on the public highways?
gympie @ #138 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:48 am
It’s right nextdoor and culturally much more like Ipswich than Brisbane. I travel to Redbank Plains regularly and Inala is not at all remote from Ipswich.
Democracy sausage : the people may have stopped listening to the government but the problem for Mr Crisifulli is that they will now start listening to him and expect to hear something other than whinging. What are his ideas, policies etc. his culture of complaint has worked in making the government seem inert ( they are actually very active and working hard to solve things like the housing crisis not of their making) aided by the LNP aligned courier and magnified by other new services. This result puts the spotlight on the LNP who have not renewed their ranks from the last time they were in which was a debacle.
Princeplanet @ #144 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 10:47 am
The general election will be a totally different kettle of fish to these by elections. Actually that almost always is the case.
The LNP in the Brisbane City Council election basically just held their own apart from a few pretty small enclaves. In a lot of other areas they went back marginally and the Greens seem to have taken another bite at the Labor vote (but very variable by Ward).
If I was a betting man I’d go for a Labor minority government supported by the Greens and perhaps the Katter party.
Labor sells Pie In The Sky solutions to hard questions, create make/work jobs, smother the LumpenProletariat with Welfare, when the music stops, it’s
>Don’t take us back to the Joh days, remember CanDo Newman, something, something Policies …that’s it.
The incredible thing is that they ever get elected in the first place.
Looking ahead the Albanese government need to find a pathway to win elections without Queensland. It is clear that Qld is a wasteland for all except the right and far right and is many, many percentage points to the right of the nation as a whole. Just as Dutton has a plan to win by targeting the outer suburbs and regions Labor needs to win the cities outside Brisbane, something which they are generally doing reasonably well.
The Townsville mayoral result is a direct consequence of the youth crime issue up there.(and – let’s not beat around the bush, we’re talking about Indigenous youth, and that adds another whole dimension to the issue).
It might be beaten up a little bit by the media, but it’s a huge and growing issue with the public across northern and central Australia (including many Indigenous people). It got worse thanks to ICE, fentanyl and what have you and, for several reasons, it got even worse during COVID.
I’m not sure what the solution is, but many people are going to listen to politicians who offer solutions, including One Nation types. And it gets worse: look out for KKK-style vigilante groups.
I’m fond of the centre and the north, but things aren’t good up that way ATM
The State Labor Government in Qld is a dead duck and has been since it knocked Palasczuck, who may have been tired but was still a dominant performer. No matter what the local factors, and the crime issue is biting hard, governments don’t come back from 20% swings
That said, maybe a 10 or 20% chance of limping back into minority government if they avoid mistakes over the next six months and all the electoral cards fall right on the day
I’m a Queenslander and live here
Meher Baba: you are right from what I am reading but I’m not on the ground so don’t know how much of a media beat up it is. The one thing that is correct is that it’s a complex problem that the LNP and LNP aligned media( Murdochracy) has found easy to simplify and make hay with. If they do win the election off the back of this issue they will find the going exceptionally tough. Last time they were in they set up boot camps which were beyond a joke. What will they do this time? Drugs are also an issue in many crimes so how do they approach this. They will be held to very high standards by the public if not the murdochracy and solutions will be expected and quickly.
So whats Crisafulli’s big vision for QLD?
meher baba says:
Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 12:35 pm
The Townsville mayoral result is a direct consequence of the youth crime issue up there.(and – let’s not beat around the bush, we’re talking about Indigenous youth, and that adds another whole dimension to the issue).
It might be beaten up a little bit by the media, but it’s a huge and growing issue with the public across northern and central Australia (including many Indigenous people). It got worse thanks to ICE, fentanyl and what have you and, for several reasons, it got even worse during COVID.
I’m not sure what the solution is, but many people are going to listen to politicians who offer solutions, including One Nation types. And it gets worse: look out for KKK-style vigilante groups.
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Maybe we don’t spend enough on family and community services. After all, children are all innocent when born, as toddlers,… but bad influences from parents, friends, relatives, including drug and alcohol abuse, physical and sexual abuse can turn children, young adults, adults into criminals.
Better and more low rent housing, better funding for schools and public hospitals, job skilling all young people would help. Maybe like PM Paul Keating in the 1990’s had Skillshares.
Cancelled when Howard won in 1996. But which government wants to fund those priorities?
This model, in Norway, may provide some ideas:
The Norwegian Child Welfare Services (Norwegian: Barnevernet, literally “child protection”) is the public agency responsible for child welfare in Norway. They consist of services in each municipality, which are aided and supervised by different governmental bodies at the state as well as the county level.
The Child Welfare Services’ statutory obligation is “to ensure that children and youth who live in conditions that may be detrimental to their health and development receive the necessary assistance and care at the right time.”
Roughly 3% of all children in Norway receive some sort of measure from the Child Welfare Services, most of them in the form of relief measures to the child and its parents (such as counselling, advice, external support contacts, access to day care etc.).
In about one quarter of the cases, the children are placed outside their homes (mainly in foster families or institutions) after care orders.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Child_Welfare_Services