Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Roy Morgan (open thread)

Another three federal polls — one good, one bad and one ugly for Labor.

Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.

Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.

We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

979 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. C@t declares:
    “Um, congenitally inherited IS DNA inherited!”
    – – — – – – — –
    I say:
    You’re wrong, congenital means caused by the mothers state of health during gestation, not DNA inherited.
    For example, Cretinism is congenital, but it’s not DNA inherited.
    Downs Syndrome is another condition that’s congenital, but not an expression of DNA .
    Look it up.

  2. Immigration Minister Andrew Giles will be given powers to bar new visa applications from non-citizens of countries that refuse to accept removals from Australia and to ban all visa applications from “designated” countries, under new immigration legislation the Government wants to rush through Parliament.
    The emergency bill, being introduced on Tuesday, will also lead to immigration detainees who refuse to cooperate with the Federal Government’s efforts to deport them being jailed for at least one year.
    A High Court case next month about an Iranian man, known as ASF17, who is refusing to cooperate with the Government because he fears he would be harmed if he was deported back to Iran, has prompted Labor to bring on new laws.
    There are fears if the Commonwealth loses the case it could result in more than 170 people being released from immigration detention. The matter will be heard on April 17, in the middle of Parliament’s six-week pre-budget break.
    The new legislation requires non-citizens set to be deported and who “have exhausted all avenues to remain in Australia” to cooperate with efforts to ensure their prompt removal from the country.
    This could include the minister ordering them to obtain a passport from their home country.
    “The amendments in the bill are necessary to address circumstances where non-citizens who have no valid reason to remain in Australia and who have not left voluntarily as expected, are not cooperating with appropriate and lawful efforts to remove them,” the bill’s explanatory memorandum says.
    MPs briefed on the bill early on Tuesday said it would also give the minister powers to say Australia would not process any visas for people from countries like Iran, Russia and South Sudan who don’t take back people refusing to return. It would also ban people on bridging visas or in immigration detention from applying for permanent visas. The Government says it is liaising with the Opposition and crossbench in the usual way over the new laws.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/immigration-minister-andrew-giles-seeks-to-rush-new-immigration-laws-through-ahead-of-court-case-c-14085353

  3. gympie @ #102 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 12:44 pm

    C@t declares:
    “Um, congenitally inherited IS DNA inherited!”
    – – — – – – — –
    I say:
    You’re wrong, congenital means caused by the mothers state of health during gestation, not DNA inherited.
    For example, Cretinism is congenital, but it’s not DNA inherited.
    Downs Syndrome is another condition that’s congenital, but not an expression of DNA .
    Look it up.

    Oi vey!

    Congenital refers to a condition or trait that exists at birth. Congenital conditions or traits may be hereditary or result from an action or exposure occurring during pregnancy or at birth, or they may be due to a combination of these factors.

    https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Congenital

    Cretinism is a condition of severely stunted physical and mental growth due to untreated congenital deficiency of thyroid hormones (congenital hypothyroidism). Congenital hypothyroidism can be endemic, genetic, or sporadic.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3603067/

    I take nothing that you state to be true. It’s better that way. As you obviously don’t even know how to google properly.

  4. The prospects are bleak: Albanese is headed for the door in one term, at best an unstable minority government. Meanwhile a second Trump administration is all but inevitable.

  5. National Negotiations To Ease Housing Crisis.

    The Allan Labor Government is continuing calls for the Albanese Government to significantly increase funding for housing and homelessness services as part of negotiations for a new National Housing and Homelessness Agreement.

    Population growth, ageing social housing and a rise in homelessness have led to unprecedented pressure on all states and territories. To assist the most vulnerable people in our communities across Victoria, we need to deliver support, care, workforce capacity, and more homes all over the state.

    Through our landmark $5.3 billion Big Housing Build, more than 9,200 homes have been completed or are underway – and we are on track to deliver more than 12,000 much-needed new social and affordable homes and create more than 40,000 jobs in construction. We’re also providing $1 billion for at least 1,300 new social and affordable homes across rural and regional Victoria.

    This work can and should continue with combined funding from the Commonwealth that counters the current shortage of social housing in Victoria and delivers measurable improvements in supply into the future.

    Press release state labor blaming fed labor! Oh Dear!

  6. gympie @ #102 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 12:44 pm

    C@t declares:
    “Um, congenitally inherited IS DNA inherited!”
    – – — – – – — –
    I say:
    You’re wrong, congenital means caused by the mothers state of health during gestation, not DNA inherited.
    For example, Cretinism is congenital, but it’s not DNA inherited.
    Downs Syndrome is another condition that’s congenital, but not an expression of DNA .
    Look it up.

    Downs Syndrome is called Trisomy 21 for a reason, so I am not sure why you are saying it is not DNA related

  7. NSW Police spokesperson’s response to democratic demonstrations..

    A police spokesperson said the force respected people’s right to protest but public safety was “the first priority” and unlawful behaviour would “not be tolerated”.

    “A formal direction to move from the roadway was issued to protesters last night and they were given some time to do so,” the spokesperson said. “Those who chose not to comply were dealt with accordingly.”

    Spokesperson sounds as heavy handed & out of touch as the officers the spokesperson is trying to defend.

  8. No one mentioning the elephants in the room, so I will:

    1. Chris Bowen put the original new Emissions Standards out for consultation with the industry and stakeholders. They were never set in concrete from the get go.

    2. President Biden rejigged America’s new Emissions Standards.

    This has led to the new Australian Emissions Standards.

    No one was rolled. No Minister should resign. The petit commentariat can stand down.

  9. MelbourneMammoth:

    “The prospects are bleak: Albanese is headed for the door in one term, at best an unstable minority government. Meanwhile a second Trump administration is all but inevitable.”

    Chin up, sunshine!
    It might not happen.

  10. ABC News 24 running the line “Govt to water down proposed vehicle emissions standards”.

    Always a negative slant on what is still substantial progress.

  11. Bowen, King water down fuel standards to avoid ute backlash
    Phillip Coorey and Jacob Greber
    AFR.Mar 26, 2024 – 5.00am

    ‘The Albanese government has made key concessions to the manufacturers of utes by agreeing to soften the emission reduction targets that will apply to the popular vehicles in return for the adoption of environmentally beneficial technology.
    The concessions, which will mimic in effect a credit scheme that applies in the United States by rewarding manufacturers for additions such as environmentally friendly air conditioning gases, are designed to prevent a political backlash to the proposed New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES)’.

    Dutton in charge of Labor policies. When was Dutton elected PM? That’s right, when every Labor policy has to have Dutton’s support.

    What does rewarding manufacturers mean? Are we giving them more taxpayer money? As Labor recently gave pharmacies an easy $3billion?

    As Australia’s richest woman Gina Rinehart received over $800million for her company Arafura Rare Earths and $230million for Liontown Resources, lithium producer.

    Labor policy is middle and upper class welfare. Plus Morrison, Joe Hockey, Christopher Pyne, can’t help wondering if Peter Costello will, benefit from AUKUS $millions.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 1:38 pm
    No one mentioning the elephants in the room, so I will:

    1. Chris Bowen put the original new Emissions Standards out for consultation with the industry and stakeholders. They were never set in concrete from the get go.

    2. President Biden rejigged America’s new Emissions Standards.

    This has led to the new Australian Emissions Standards.

    No one was rolled. No Minister should resign. The petit commentariat can stand down.
    ——————————————
    Good points

  13. So going from having No New Vehicle Efficiency Scheme to have one is a “Watering down”? Didn’t they just take it to consultation with the industry, got feedback and adjusted it?

  14. It looks like the concession to manufacturers like Toyota is to move “body on frame” vehicles (like the Landcruiser) to the weaker standards applied to “light commercial vehicles”.

    Or at least that’s my reading between the lines as to how they’ve implemented it (rather than just picking specific models that have the weaker standards applied to them).

  15. Duttons had a few wins.
    The emergency Legislation on illegal entrants who refuse repatriation is laso a win for Dutton’s tactics.
    So were the revised Tax Cuts.
    Sooner or later, Albanese is going to run out of rabbits and top hats and the question will be asked:
    “What’s the point of this Labor Government when Dutton is telling them what to do and they’re doing it?”

  16. CEO of Toyota Australia says the emissions standards are not a tax.

    Bowen and King going to have a field day with that line in question time today.

  17. Interesting ABC headline there, Socrates. The article itself doesn’t quite live down to the sensationalism.
    I can’t be bothered reading the Coorey thing but the first sentence quoted makes it all seem like a swap’s been done. Not the abject surrender that’ll be protrayed by this evening.

  18. I agree with all the watered down comments.

    However given that the LNP outsourced our car manufacturing industry I don’t see Australia has much choice but to go with what is happening internationally. Much as I would like Australia to be.a world leader.

    On this I am taking Labor at their word that it is a floor not a ceiling.

    BTW the political capital is not there now but with no car manufacturing capacity should we consider moving to driving on the right to fit in with EU and USA and others so we can just import those cars? A political cost of not having our own manufacturing base?

  19. Labor trying to ram through draconian laws like a far right party.

    11m ago
    13.57 AEDT
    The HRLC concludes this bill will criminalise refugees, who may never have had their claims for protection correctly assessed in the first place, will compound indefinite detention, by creating a ‘roundabout’ regime to imprison people first under this law, and then into detention because they will have committed a crime and can not be settled.

    The HRLC also finds the bill imposes a travel ban and circumvents existing protection findings under Australian law, will seperate families (deliberately so) as the minister can order someone’s removal, regardless of the impact on their spouse, children or families. It will stop people from designated countries applying for visas, including those fleeing conflict and war.

    And the human rights legal minds also see it as significantly expanding the powers of the minister, with no adequate safeguards. It’s what we call the ‘god’ powers, which the courts have been pushing back against.

    You can see why the Coalition likes it. But it is a Labor government which has drafted and introduced this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/mar/26/australia-politics-live-wage-case-cost-of-living-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-question-time-fuel-efficiency-standards-aukus-submarines

  20. Scott says:
    Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 2:08 pm


    BTW the political capital is not there now but with no car manufacturing capacity should we consider moving to driving on the right to fit in with EU and USA and others so we can I just import those cars? A political cost of not having our own manufacturing base?

    ———————————

    The federal lib/nats have a lot to answer

  21. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 2:14 pm
    Is there two Scott’s commenting here ?
    ———————————————-
    Yes

  22. Scott – use a full stop like Pied Piper. does and then do not use a single piece of punctuation correctly thereafter…

  23. MelbourneMammoth posting what most of us deep down are feeling.
    Still, if Albo and Jim think everything is roses I guess it must be.
    Stand at ease.

  24. C@tmomma @ #112 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 1:38 pm

    No one mentioning the elephants in the room, so I will:

    1. Chris Bowen put the original new Emissions Standards out for consultation with the industry and stakeholders. They were never set in concrete from the get go.

    2. President Biden rejigged America’s new Emissions Standards.

    This has led to the new Australian Emissions Standards.

    No one was rolled. No Minister should resign. The petit commentariat can stand down.

    Just a bit of a shame about both the climate and our hip pockets, eh?

    Not Labor priorities?

  25. I see that the Greens are in bed with the Coalition because they want Colesworth to pay farmers more for their produce.

    These are the very same farmers that the Greens intend to destroy whole industries at a time.

  26. @Boerwar

    Haven’t you been calling for a end to farming animals?
    Why would you not support the parties that you claim are doing what you want to achieve?

  27. Boerwar @ #142 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 3:08 pm

    Joyce up during QT on the Toyota tax.
    Looks bloated, pink and unhealthy.

    Could be along these lines?

    What is the main side effects of disulfiram?

    Disulfiram is used to treat chronic alcoholism. It causes unpleasant effects when even small amounts of alcohol are consumed. These effects include flushing of the face, headache, nausea, vomiting, chest pain, weakness, blurred vision, mental confusion, sweating, choking, breathing difficulty, and anxiety.
    15 Aug 2017

  28. The Greens hypocritrs are in full flight.

    They pretend to care for farmers when we know full well that they have a long list of farming industries that they intend to shut down. Completely. Gutting whole towns. Gutting whole regions.

    The Greens pretend to be outraged about Indigenous consultation.

    Have the Greens consulted with Indigenous workers whose rural industries they intend to destroy?

    All this moral panic, stunting, obfuscating and blocking!

    Yesterday we have a Greens idiot claiming that the Gaza famine is the worst since world war two.

    He was out by at least 15 million dead. But that was done by the Chicommies to their fellow citizens so that one does not count, apparently.

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