Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.
Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.
We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.
Boerwar @ #150 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 3:25 pm
Is it the Greens or the Chinese you hate the most?
Asking for a friend.
Meanwhile in SA Prominent former federal MP Nicolle Flint will conquer a sexist barrage that ousted her from politics to recontest her old seat of Boothby. It is understood Ms Flint, who held the southwestern Adelaide federal seat from 2016-22, will formally nominate for Liberal preselection on Wednesday.
Ms Flint, who had considered a tilt at the South East state seat of MacKillop, has declared her heart is in the marginal electorate of Boothby. In a remarkable return after abruptly quitting federal politics in 2021 citing burnout, abuse, harassment and significant health issues, Ms Flint is insisting her physical and mental health have never been better after winning a long-running battle with endometriosis.
Internal critics say Ms Flint is likely to overwhelm any preselection rivals but argue her conservative views are not suited to the electorate.
She is backed by SA conservative factional powerbrokers Tony Pasin and Alex Antic, who are deploying numbers from an influx of like-minded membership recruits to shape preselection contests.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/former-liberal-boothby-mp-nicolle-flint-to-recontest-federal-politics-in-old-seat/news-story/05096565c17d8a9a1d8f1e0560799a2a?amp
Congrats to Ms Flint on her good health outcome.
Not sure her political views have much community support though.
Great to see Bells Beach pumping today.
Perhaps TaylorMade could give us a live onsite report ….?
The usual suspects from The Australian have Rattenbury in their cross hairs and they misfire:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/claims-of-rattenbury-interference-are-wrong/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Jeez, the Liberal Party are short of female talent:
Meanwhile in SA Prominent former federal MP Nicolle Flint will conquer a sexist barrage that ousted her from politics to recontest her old seat of Boothby.
Ms Flint, who had considered a tilt at the South East state seat of MacKillop, has declared her heart is in the marginal electorate of Boothby.
Actually the electorate ousted her. Probably due to her outmoded social views.
Labor and L/NP teaming up in the senate now to ram the draconian deportation legislation through today.
#LibLab
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 3:47 pm
Great to see Bells Beach pumping today.
Perhaps TaylorMade could give us a live onsite report ….?
_____________________
Am at my desk in North Geelong.
Am one of the few on here that actually has to work for a living.
But I have it playing on my phone. Looks a bit onshore.
I think Kelly Slater will still be surfing Bells when he’s a 75yo.
Yep.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Labor and L/NP teaming up in the senate now to ram the draconian deportation legislation through today.
——————
The Guardian News Feed, March 26, 2024.
Deportation bill generates more criticism
The deportation bill is going to reach the Senate this afternoon, where no doubt there will be another mess of procedure worthy of a Sunnydale High school dance.
Meanwhile the criticism from outside parliament continues to roll in.
Asylum Seekers Centre CEO Frances Rush said:
The Albanese government’s attempt to rush through new legislation to increase its powers to deport people seeking asylum and exclude people from coming to Australia based on their nationality is a draconian and inhumane move to criminalise and punish refugees seeking safety.
These laws put Australia at risk of breaching its international obligations by forcibly removing refugees to places where they face persecution and harm.
This bill must be stopped in its tracks and the Albanese government must end its harmful pattern of knee-jerk draconian legislation, de-escalate rhetoric, and prioritise a humane approach to refugees and people seeking asylum.
But with the Coalition supporting it, there is not a lot the crossbench can do, leaving the law to be challenged in the courts.
Labor must support ‘PM’ Dutton. At all times. And people wonder why Labor support is dropping. No morals in the duopoly. Another court case imminent.
In Australia we get a constant stream of violence, murder in the daily news, of Australians attacking other Australians. But no plan, no government wants to spend the money to protect vulnerable Australians, you and I, with rehabilitation programs for them.
But let’s pick on, demonise refugees, asylum seekers. A vote winner? Maybe not for Labor.
It’s all just a political manoeuvre by Labor to take this off the table leading into the next election.
Strange as it might seem, the vast majority of Australians will support legislation which enables governments to deport people from Australia.
The Labor Government will continue to welcome 20-30,000 asylum seekers a year to Australia. The vast majority of those asylum seekers will have their claims validated, will stay and will become useful contributors to our society.
With all the failed former and retired federal liberal party members coming back
How long will it be till Stuart Robert , Allan Tudge make a comeback
Rainman says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 10:54 am
For all the out of touch lite left Labor apologists, who continue to bang on about all the good things Labor have done, you should wake up to the fact that, for ordinary people, Labor have totally failed to deal with the cost of living crisis and, in particular, the housing crisis.
………………………………………………………
A “crisis” is a time of intense difficulty or danger. Definitionally, it is not a chronic state of affairs.
The absence of adequate public housing in Australia started, oh, . . . whenever you like to nominate humans living on the continent.
“Cost of living crisis”, you’re right, that definitely started the day after Albo became PM.
Whilst my point may appear semantic, have a little think. Why do we start talking about housing and cost of living as crises? The same reason we started talking about “labor’s debt and deficit disasters”. Take a bow Rainman loyal, unpaid servant of Rupert.
You don’t even have any positive suggestions that might indicate you give a shit about either problem.
With the polls as they are especially Essential you make a good point Scott.
Lars Von Trier
Lib/nats combined primary vote 36/37% = they will be battling to get more than current 55 seats they hold now
Particular if it is QLD who is boosting the primary vote
Nationwide the lib/nats combined primary vote is weak
We know how these things eventuate….
Scott , what if Essential is correct ? thoughts ?
Albo ist kaput – ja?
Think it is time to trot out a hackneyed, tired Liberal line – usually peddled by the Murdoch press and their watch mates here in relation to Labor.
‘It’s clear that the coming by election in Cooke is a huge test for LOTO Peter Dutton…
With his party struggling for any kind of traction in electorates outside Queensland – both at Federal and State level, the coming by-election in a heartland, tradies electorate in suburban Sydney is a “must win” for Peter Dutton to make any headway at all for his party at the next Federal election.
As a minimum, the Liberal party, in the absence of any candidate from Labor, must get at least 50% of the vote for Peter Dutton to have any credibility leading into the next Federal election – still at least 12 months away.
Failure to make any inroads in this electorate must surely call into question his hold over the Liberal leadership.
Mr Dutton’s only saving grace is that there is nobody who either wants the leadership of the Federal Liberal party and/or have any support from either their colleagues or the electorate for such a role’
Bet lots of dough you will not see any sentiments such as the above from any of the so-called responsible media pack when it comes to friend Dutton……..
‘Rainman says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 10:54 am
For all the out of touch lite left Labor apologists, who continue to bang on about all the good things Labor have done, you should wake up to the fact that, for ordinary people, Labor have totally failed to deal with the cost of living crisis…’
———————
Yeah, nah.
Inflation is down. Wages are up – particularly for the lower paid and those working in feminized industries. Employment is up by around 700,000. Medicines much cheaper. Child care is better supported. Taxes down. Free TAFE for over 300,000 Australians. Rental assistance is up. A suite of assistance for energy costs.
Is there a mismatch between demand and supply in housing and is this hurting renters?
Yes.
There are two ways of addressing this. The first is suppressing demand. The Government is addressing this by eliminating shonky education institutions teaching shonky overseas ‘students’. It is, however, not substantially altering the asylum seeker intake.
The second is by allocating around $20 billion to housing supply. The third is by creating tens of thousands of construction-industry specific training opportunities.
Will this fix the the housing supply/demand imbalance?
The imbalance took decades to cook up and it will take years to bring it down to something reasonable.
Does the Government of the day get kickbacks from Migration Agants?
Perish the thought.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 4:50 pm
Scott , what if Essential is correct ? thoughts ?
Albo ist kaput – ja?
———————————————
50-44% , what does it actually mean with 6% left out
the 3 federal by-elections which were held , particular the recent Dunkley shows . swings to Labor
Scott it (Essential) is not good is it ?
Wasn’t the S3 change meant to be the turning point?
What is
Labor primary vote in essentials
Lib/nats combined primary vote in essentials
Scott , According to bludgertrack Labor Primary is 31.6%.
It’s almost Tasmanian isn’t it ?
Lars Von Trier
The stage 3 tax cuts dont start till after this years budget and beginning of the 2nd half of the year
Which the lib/nats and their propaganda media units will be sweating on no cuts in interest rates or any other news which is good for Labor
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 5:12 pm
Scott , According to bludgertrack Labor Primary is 31.6%.
It’s almost Tasmanian isn’t it ?
———————————–
If federal liberal party primary vote end up the same as state liberal party 36.8%
Federal Liberal party would lose seats in Tasmania ,possible gains to Labor or independents
gympie @ #172 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 5:04 pm
You’re thinking of the Coalition. But they call them ‘donations’. 😐
… a Trump style ‘travel ban’?
As usual the Greens are trying to foment moral panic. They seem to be genuinely disappointed that they will not get an opportunity to block, delay and stunt for the next six months.
As noted above Labor welcomes between 20,000 and 30,000 asylum seekers a year. The vast majority of those will have their claims validated. The vast majority will become good contributors to our society.
An infinitismal minority will turn out to be criminals of the worst order. Being crooks and liars they are quite willing to game the system and to defy deportation orders and the like by whatever means available. The current legislation enables these unlawful undesirables to be given the heave ho back to their homelands.
The vast majority of Australians will support this.
The Greens by classing genuine refugees of good will and good behaviour with the tiny minority of scumbags are doing all genuine refugees a grave disservice.
Lars Von Trier
QLD at this point is the only thing Federal LNP and Lib/nats have got , unless all of a sudden things go bad in QLD like reacting in not wanting Duttons’s Nuclear energy thought bubble
Good on you Scott I always enjoy our chats. Got a train to catch will write soon.
This is the sort of case where “trial by media” is actually a good thing, because the evidence – the text messages – speak for themselves and making it public lets people make up their own mind and doesn’t let the organisation involved cover up. Professor Chris Semsarian accused of sexual harassment of a junior employee, and frankly, any good PR flack will be advising his employer to switch from “defending” to “settle and apologise and get it out of the headlines ASAP” and to sack the guy – it’s a shame when highly respected people who’ve clearly done a lot of good go off the rails like this, but you also can’t let their career accomplishments give them a free pass to be predatory like this to junior women in the office.
https://archive.md/IHzbf
Amazing how all the Cons apologists like pied piper and gympie, and the Socialist Left and Greens’ apologists like Rainman, try and make us angry for the fact that the federal Labor government haven’t been able to wave a magic wand over the Housing Crisis and magically fix it.
However, being a rational sort who knows how long it will take to fix the mess Coalition policy has created, I’m not angry that it hasn’t been solved yet. I’m grateful that we finally have a federal, and some state governments, who are working hard to fix it. No matter what the catastrophists bleat.
@Boer: “… a Trump style ‘travel ban’?
As usual the Greens are trying to foment moral panic. They seem to be genuinely disappointed that they will not get an opportunity to block, delay and stunt for the next six months.
As noted above Labor welcomes between 20,000 and 30,000 asylum seekers a year. The vast majority of those will have their claims validated. The vast majority will become good contributors to our society.
An infinitismal minority will turn out to be criminals of the worst order. Being crooks and liars they are quite willing to game the system and to defy deportation orders and the like by whatever means available. The current legislation enables these unlawful undesirables to be given the heave ho back to their homelands.
The vast majority of Australians will support this.
The Greens by classing genuine refugees of good will and good behaviour with the tiny minority of scumbags are doing all genuine refugees a grave disservice.”
Well said.
Honestly, Albo and co could take a leaf from you in explaining this to the public.
@Windhover: ““Cost of living crisis”, you’re right, that definitely started the day after Albo became PM.
Whilst my point may appear semantic, have a little think. Why do we start talking about housing and cost of living as crises? The same reason we started talking about “labor’s debt and deficit disasters”. Take a bow Rainman loyal, unpaid servant of Rupert.
You don’t even have any positive suggestions that might indicate you give a shit about either problem.”
Also well said.
An interesting view of China and changes in last 5 years. (Don’t tell Peter Hartcher!).
https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1771858094030565756
C@t….The naysayers will always be with us…..
What we have is a competent, no frills government.
After the turmoil of the Rudd/Gillard years and the miserable LNP years thereafter, the seas are relatively calm.
Just being one of 25/26 million people parked over in the WA Cave, I do not see/hear much (a) talk about politics and (b) much “get Labor” stuff – and if at all, from the usual places such as the West newspaper – the latter now barely read or paid attention to by any in Perth.
Can’t speak for the other side of the Rabbit Proof but on the basis of the few by-elections – and yes, even in Tassie, the Liberals really don’t seem to have much to cheer about.
An excellent contemplation, IMO.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2024/mar/26/historic-revolt-forgotten-hero-empty-plinth-jamaica-slavery-chief-tacky
Yet, somehow, he misses this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_among_Native_Americans_in_the_United_States
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 5:23 pm
Amazing how all the Cons apologists like pied piper and gympie, and the Socialist Left and Greens’ apologists like Rainman, try and make us angry for the fact that the federal Labor government haven’t been able to wave a magic wand over the Housing Crisis and magically fix it.
——————-
Labor are making no effort to fix it. Their choice of big immigration numbers, pushing out more vulnerable Australians from the rental market is the problem.
Had over 120,000 immigrants enter Australia in January. Plus the well over 600,000 since election day, May 2022. Labor believe business has priority, who they are working for.
Labor fully responsible here for the numbers of homelessness.
Low income people, adults and children, are of no interest to Labor. How they fought to not increase Jobseeker last year, how Labor refused to restore the single parenting allowance, and instead of stopping it at 16, as previously, refused to budget for it, Labor was only willing to stop it when the youngest child turned 14.
Maybe Labor wants these children to go to work, as a 14 year old. Certainly many will be accessing Foodbanks or similar.
Labor want to be the image of the Liberals, keep rolling out $billions of middle and upper class welfare. Copy the crook, bully and liar Morrison’s policy on asylum seeker detention, AUKUS etc.
Over $1billion for Gina’s mines money well spent they say. The modern Labor Party.
@gympie: “William Kristol is a Neocon warmonger, C@t.”
Yeah, and yet even he can see what Trump is. What’s everyone else’s excuse?
And he’s right – though incredibly behind – in pointing out the media’s vaunted “sunlight is the best disinfectant” line is horribly outdated and most of the worst bullshit is going on in plain sight. I and many others have been singing that song since Trump’s original campaign proved that actually there’s nothing like endless exposure and repetition to normalise and indoctinate people with Big Lies. All those media organisations giving the lies of Trump endless exposure as “disinfectant” were doing the exact opposite.
We had this conversation here a number of years ago when there was the kerfuffle about the ABC platforming Steve Bannon. Conventional journalists at the time tried to tell us we were wrong to want to “cancel” Bannon and that actually, interviewing him on TV was the best thing because sunlight disinfectant yada yada. And we were right and they were wrong. Bullshitters like Bannon thrive on being given status by appearing on these media outlets, and on getting the opportunity to repeat their talking points whether the interviewer is effective at disputing them or not (and few are as effective as they think they are).
I reckon that ISIS is just going to get more pissed off with Russia. They commit a terrorist action in Moscow and claim responsibility – yet the Russians want to blame Ukraine so ISIS doesn’t even get the blame. There is nothing worse than others getting credit for your work.
fixed it for you, CLOWN!
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 3:24 pm
I like Scott 2.0
”
To be honest, I don’t know who is Scott and who is Scott 2.0. So I don’t know whether to like or not.
Like Rex, I am confused. 🙂
‘Themunz says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 5:30 pm
An interesting view of China and changes in last 5 years. (Don’t tell Peter Hartcher!).
https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1771858094030565756‘
——————-
Thanks. Interesting.
@Irene:
“Labor are making no effort to fix it. Their choice of big immigration numbers, pushing out more vulnerable Australians from the rental market is the problem.”
International students and expats returning after they left (or never even got the chance to come) during COVID is not a choice of big immigration numbers. It’s a correction after a disaster event.
Because of people like you and Pauline Hanson who insist on taking every opportunity to scream about immigrants and blame everything on immigrants and pretend Labor has some policy of wanting to cause itself problems for no obvious benefit, Labor has had to crack down on new student visas which is one of the things it at least can control. This has knock-on effects for university numbers and damaging the international student market which brings a lot of money into Australia but hey, at least you guys can’t accuse them of doing nothing about it, not that it will stop you.
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says income tax for workers earning less than $300,000 should be cut to 30 per cent, the GST increased and the tech giants slapped with a levy as a key reform to revive economic growth.
Urging the government to overhaul the tax system in a self-described “blunter” fashion, Mr Comyn said turning around a forecast slowdown in long-term economic growth had to focus on “international competitiveness, dynamism and supporting both the mobility of labour and capital”.
Mr Comyn’s proposal came as the chief executives of the country’s other major banks weighed in on how to lift economic growth. Treasurer Jim Chalmers this month said that Australia should aspire to better than the government’s 2.2 per cent long-term economic growth forecast – down from 3.1 per cent – by lifting productivity and business investment.
Ross McEwan, the departing chief executive of National Australia Bank, said it was “strange” that the focus was often on “how to divide the existing pie … instead of getting on to creating a bigger pie for everybody”. “We’re frightened of industries that are doing well and making money,” Mr McEwan said at the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit. “We no longer celebrate great organisations that actually do great things, that make money. Those are the organisations who will be investing back into their businesses.” “I think we’re actually become a wee bit ashamed of companies that even make money,” Mr McEwan said on Tuesday.
Mr Comyn’s $120 billion tax reform package was headlined by simplifying the personal system with no tax on incomes up to $20,000, 20 per cent tax on incomes above $20,000 up to $80,000, 30 per cent on incomes above $80,000 up to $300,000 and a top rate of 45 per cent thereafter.
The income tax relief would cost the government about $35 billion in annual revenue, he said.
“Extremely inefficient” state payroll taxes and stamp duties on property purchases and insurance should also be eliminated to improve competitiveness, at a ballpark cost of $55 billion, he added.
On the revenue raising side, Mr Comyn suggested lifting the 10 per cent goods and services tax rate to 15 per cent, to raise about an extra $60 billion a year. That figure includes broadening the GST to some exempt items.
About a third of the GST rise or $20 billion would be redistributed to compensate lower income households via government transfer payments, such as for pensioners and welfare recipients.
Personal income tax deductions would be abolished, except for charitable donations. This would raise an estimated $5 billion and simplify tax returns for taxpayers, remove red tape and lift productivity, Mr Comyn said.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/slash-income-tax-hike-gst-and-levy-tech-giants-comyn-s-growth-fix-20240326-p5ffbt
@Fairman: I can bear the prospect of the evil rogue state and the evil terrorist remnant beating up on each other with enormous fortitude.
Irene says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 5:37 pm
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 5:23 pm
Amazing how all the Cons apologists like pied piper and gympie, and the Socialist Left and Greens’ apologists like Rainman, try and make us angry for the fact that the federal Labor government haven’t been able to wave a magic wand over the Housing Crisis and magically fix it.
——————-
Labor are making no effort to fix it….’
====================
Irene does not do facts, apparently.