My diagnosis of a quiet week for polling hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, brought to you by The Australian. The headline-grabber here is Western Australia: whereas the other mainland states record changes in two-party preferred no greater than one point either way, Labor has gone from leading 54-46 to trailing 51-49 in the State of Excitement, for a swing to the Coalition of 6% off the 2022 result. However, the sample would have been below 400, putting the margin of error north of 5%. Elsewhere, New South Wales has gone from 51-49 in favour of Labor to 50-50 (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%); Victoria is unchanged at 55-45 to Labor (also little changed from 2022); the Coalition’s lead in Queensland has narrowed from 54-46 to 53-47 (a 1% swing to Labor); and Labor’s lead in South Australia has narrowed from 55-45 to 54-46 (unchanged from 2022).
Two other movements stand out: Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 cohort is in from 66-34 to 61-39, which reflects parallel five-point movements in both major parties’ primary vote share rather than anything to do with the Greens, who are in fact down a point and no longer lead the Coalition; and its lead among non-English speakers is in from 60-40 to 55-45. The gender gap has re-emerged, with an aberrant 53-47 lead to Labor among men last time making way for 50-50 this time, while Labor’s lead among women is out from 52-48 to 53-47.
These results are compiled from three Newspoll surveys conducted between January 31 and March 22, from an overall sample of 3691.
Minority govt looms – decision time for the ALP after the budget.
Some interesting numbers in the Newspoll Quarterlies.
Women appear to be able to read the signs from overseas=abortion severely restricted and IVF threatened, and are linking it with the Conservative Christian takeover of the Liberal Party from the Moderates. Hence keeping Labor’s lead strong with them.
Also, the Coalition now ahead of The Greens with 18-34 year olds! Maybe they are finally realising that The Greens’ Housing policy is a dud and what can they really do for them?
Australia’s identity is undergoing fundamental demographic changes. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that net overseas migration hit a record 659,800 in the year ending September 2023, out of a total population of 26.8 million. These arrivals accounted for 83 per cent of Australia’s population growth for the year.
Three out of four current female migrants are of child-bearing age, double the figure of Australian residents. At the same time, the birth rate for Australian residents continues to decline and is now at 1.63 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. And 17 per cent of Australians are now 65 years and over.
The kids that resident Australians haven’t had are coming from a new wave of aspirational Indo-Pacific migrants now forming the next generation of Australian families and politicians. Stand up Foreign Minister Penny Wong and NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey.
Of the 26.8 million people living in Australia, 30 per cent, or nearly 8 million, were born overseas. Growth in migration in the last decade has been led by India (with a total in mid-2022 of 750,000), China (600,000), the Philippines (320,000), Vietnam (280,000), Malaysia (180,000), Nepal (150,000), Sri Lanka (145,000) and Pakistan, Iraq and Thailand, with about 100,000 each. When we add in the rest of the Indo-Pacific countries, we’re looking at about 3.8 million, or one in seven Australians.
If we go back a little further, to 2005, when migration from Indo-Pacific countries really took off, we find a million total migrants who arrived in their early 20s and who have been paying taxes ever since, as they worked their way up to the peak of their careers.
No wonder the Canberra bureaucracy and the Tax Office loves migrants. They’re the ones paying net tax for public service salaries.
When we factor in sex ratios, youth, and fertility rates, aspirational migrants and their families will be the fastest-growing demographic chunk of suburban Australia for at least the next two decades.
Broadly, between the ages of 25 and 39, young adults tend to find partners, get a mortgage and start a family (not necessarily the best order) and their votes start spraying everywhere. Within this age group, we keep finding Indo-Pacific migrants popping up in our profiles of people in politics, health and education.
They are interesting politically, in that they played a very strong role in the election of the current Labor government and voted Yes in the Voice referendum, but, unlike typical young Australian families, they are growing consumers of private health insurance and private schools.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/how-migrants-are-changing-the-face-of-australian-politics-20240325-p5ff4e
For Lars Von Trier, the Hanrahan of PB, who would like us to forget that he was the same person proclaiming that the Coalition would come from behind in the polls to win the 2022 federal election and who is now proclaiming Minority government status for federal Labor based upon the fact that they are roughly where they were in 2022 at the election:
SAID HANRAHAN
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s lookin’ crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak–
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want a inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
😐
Admital Akbar “ break off the attack, it’s a trap!”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The PM was punching well, until he gave himself an immigration uppercut, writes Sean Kelly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-pm-was-punching-well-until-he-gave-himself-an-immigration-uppercut-20240329-p5fg6a.html
Writing about the trajectory of the Liberal party, Mark Kenny says that, poised to vote, Dunstan voters gained a sobering glimpse of the antediluvian views in vogue within the SA Division of said party. Tasmania also showed the colours of the religious right and its “anti-woke” outlook.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8574166/liberals-winning-the-race-to-oblivion/?cs=14258
Andrew Giles faces years of litigation as he fights to prevent another disastrous defeat on immigration, writes Paul Karp.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/apr/01/andrew-giles-faces-years-of-litigation-as-he-fights-to-prevent-another-disastrous-defeat-on-immigration
Network Ten is seeking to call fresh evidence about Bruce Lehrmann in a bombshell manoeuvre just days before a judge is due to deliver his decision in the former federal Liberal staffer’s high-stakes defamation case. Michaela Whitbourn remarks that the application follows a series of reports about the circumstances in which the Seven Network secured an exclusive interview with Lehrmann, aired in two parts on its Spotlight program.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ten-seeks-to-call-fresh-evidence-about-bruce-lehrmann-days-before-judgment-20240331-p5fgdx.html
Aspirational migrants and their families will be the fastest growing demographic chunk of suburban Australia for at least the next two decades, writes John Black who explains how migrants are changing the face of Australian politics
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/how-migrants-are-changing-the-face-of-australian-politics-20240325-p5ff4e
“Last time Meta banned news, it removed the Facebook pages of charities, emergency services and hospitals. What will happen this time?”, ponders David Swan.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/what-would-facebook-look-like-without-any-news-20240328-p5ffxc.html
Just minutes after the first bounce in a round one AFL game, families watching on free-to-air television were exposed to more than 70 gambling ads – and all before 8pm. Henry Belit reports that the fluorescent ads for gambling giant Tabcorp were splashed on digital billboards, despite the company previously declaring there was “too much advertising” and that change was necessary to protect vulnerable people.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/01/we-know-the-community-is-over-it-how-self-regulation-of-gambling-ads-came-unstuck-minutes-into-an-afl-game
Chris Vedelago reports that nicotine pouches, like those often spruiked by TikTok influencers and marketed with fruit and confectionery flavours such watermelon and gummy bears, are being illegally imported and aimed at children.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/illegal-tobacco-industry-pushing-new-product-experts-say-is-aimed-at-children-20240310-p5fb75.html
Christopher Harris reports that a woman who visited shopping centres in western Sydney while infectious with measles this week has prompted a health warning for people to be vigilant for symptoms of the potentially fatal disease. Thank you for that anti-vaxxers, thank you!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/measles-outbreak-warning-after-infected-woman-visits-sydney-shopping-centres-20240331-p5fgdi.html
Donald Trump’s violent nihilism is exposed in his latest video. The Australian Electoral Commission would expunge such an image, but the First Amendment protects him. explains Bruce Wolpe who examines the pathology of Trump’s politics.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-trump-parades-a-hog-tied-biden-his-violent-threat-to-democracy-is-beyond-question-20240331-p5fgca.html
Similar to the 2016 election in which Trump was elected, Russia is working to subvert American politics and leadership. Unlike 2016, the goal isn’t simply to harass a candidate and discredit democracy in the global public’s eyes. Today, Moscow’s goals are to unravel US resolve in supporting Kyiv, says Chris Zappone.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/russia-seeks-to-influence-us-election-to-weaken-ukraine-s-defence-20240215-p5f55j.html
A former national security adviser in the Donald Trump White House, John Bolton, has said that the ex-president “hasn’t got the brains” to helm a dictatorship, despite his admiration for such rulers.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/30/john-bolton-donald-trump-dictatorship
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Jim Pavlidis
Megan Herbert
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 6:30 am
Minority govt looms – decision time for the ALP after the budget.
————————-
Not with the federal lib/nats combined primary vote averaging 36/37%
Even a 1% drop in QLD its trouble for Federal Lib/nats to gain any seats in QLD
for the seats they will lose nationwide
‘A recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlights a complex web of deception spun by Russia, aimed at undermining the West’s support for Ukraine.
According to ISW, two significant falsehoods are being peddled by the Kremlin to foster a sense of inevitability around a Russian victory and discourage Western nations from further involvement in Ukraine.
The Power of Perception
The crux of the matter, as laid out by ISW, is the manipulation of public perception in the West.
Russia, despite receiving support from countries like North Korea, Iran, and China, is in a less advantageous position than it would appear if the collective resources of NATO and EU member states are fully mobilized against it.
This stark reality contrasts sharply with the narrative of Russian dominance and the slow but sure encroachment on Ukrainian forces—a narrative ISW identifies as a strategic misinformation campaign by the Kremlin.
Crafting an Alternate Reality
The strategy, according to ISW, isn’t centered on battlefield tactics but on shaping a “Kremlin-generated alternative reality.”
This approach aims to exhaust the United States’ will to support Ukraine, eventually leading to the cessation of aid and leaving Ukraine isolated against a more formidable Russian threat.
“The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russian dominance is a Russian information operation, offering a glimpse into the Kremlin’s real strategy and only true hope for success,” ISW points out.
ISW warns of the significant challenge Western societies face in countering Russian disinformation.
The campaign targets a broad spectrum of decision-makers and influencers in the West, exploiting vulnerabilities to perceptions manipulation—one of the Kremlin’s core competencies now unleashed with full force.
Two Main Facets of Deception
The ISW’s analysis categorizes Russian falsehoods into two primary themes: the notion that the U.S. risks being mired in a perpetual war, and the idea that domestic issues are being neglected due to the focus on Ukraine.
These narratives serve a clear purpose: convincing the U.S. and, by extension, the West, that a Russian victory is inevitable, and thereby discouraging further involvement in the conflict.
Despite the complexity and reach of Russia’s disinformation campaign, understanding these strategies is a crucial step in countering them. As ISW highlights, the battle for truth is as critical as the conflict on the ground, with the outcomes potentially shaping the future of international relations and the fate of nations involved.’
https://www.dagens.com/news/unveiling-putins-deception-the-two-false-narratives-weakening-western-resolve
Some might say this is the business of politics, adjusting to conditions, bending when the wind blows and compromising where necessary.
But the impression is that the government does not know whether it’s coming or going, so the headlines become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
No wonder voters are confused about what Anthony Albanese and his government stand for, and the polls are tightening.
It’s time for the PM to grow a spine, show some conviction and put the nation’s interests ahead of the baying mob.
The alternative is an ebbing of public confidence, which could see the return of an unrepentant Coalition, which would only deliver more wasted years.
https://the-riotact.com/skittish-albanese-government-is-letting-the-headlines-blow-it-off-course/757082
Dogs Brunch,
The PM has to stop Dutton and the Murdoch media getting in his head.
This is an excellent development, IMO. I would like to see moderates on the other side organize themselves and speak out publicly as well.
After all, while both senior members of the Israeli Government and Iran, and the leaders in Hamas, Heshbollah, Iranian-controlled terror groups in Syria and Iraq and the Houthis have ALL put out genocidal vision statements, not all the populations in Israel or Iran in particular have genocide as their ultimate aim.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/01/progressive-australian-jews-opposing-antisemitism-israel-gaza-war
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 7:56 am
Dogs Brunch,
The PM has to stop Dutton and the Murdoch media getting in his head.
Agree
Never thought I’d see the day the Coalition leads the Greens with the youth vote! What’s happened?
Karp up with the blindingly obvious:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/apr/01/andrew-giles-faces-years-of-litigation-as-he-fights-to-prevent-another-disastrous-defeat-on-immigration
As the school system seems to be slewing towards the private end of the scale, kids will be given a different view of the world; One that reflects their parents desire to see their child protected from the push and shove of the public system.
They will , by default see themselves as different and separate to that part of society that seen as (in the words of my sister-in-law) , trash.
If that doesn’t breed potential LNP voters I’m not sure what will?
It is traditional for leading political figures to issue Easter messages – with those of Christian faith often pointing to Jesus’s crucifixion and resurrection as a metaphor of hope for the human condition. And eternal values such as forgiveness of sins and charity towards those who may persecute you.
Donald Trump must have missed that teaching in Sunday School, with this being his Easter message..
For c@t and a few others
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/30/isolated-abroad-torn-apart-at-home-israel-must-face-the-future-it-dreads-a-palestinian-state
Which way is north?
Labor feds need someone locally with a high profile in WA.
Albanese visits often but the local members are invisible need to step up as a local I can tell you labor has been getting hammered in WA for months.
Stokes locally and in national media is doing labor slowly.
State gov doing well in WA libs and Nat leaders state wise are at war with each other .Crazy.Meanwhile Basil will walk into the leadership if this continues.Think labor has a WA/Stokes issue now wait to see what happens if his man gets a platform to attack feds as state lib leader.
Unbelievable that this appears! Talk about stretching to fill column inches. A first term PM with a rock solid partyroom behind him and his party leading in the polls with over a year to go until the next election should never have this kind of baseless speculation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/does-anthony-albanese-have-a-succession-plan-the-most-and-least-likely-contenders-20240310-p5fb81.html
Facebook owner Meta takes more than $262m a year in tax funding from health, education and aged care by shifting money reaped from Aussie ads to Ireland, experts say.
“Facebook is slapping Australians in the face with its egregious and aggressive tax dodging,” Jason Ward, the principal analyst at the Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability and Research, said.
Facebook Australia’s most recent financial accounts show that in 2022 it received $1.25bn from Australian businesses who advertised on the social media platform and immediately sent $1.03bn to another member of the Meta group as payment for “advertising inventory”.
The company that received the cash, Meta Platforms Ireland, soaks up revenue from Meta subsidiaries around the world and pays tax on its profit at the Irish rate of 12.5 per cent – less than half Australia’s corporate rate of 30 per cent.
Mr Ward said the move may be legal but it took away “funding for essential services like public health, aged care and education”. “How can honest Australian businesses compete when multinationals are able to shift billions offshore?” Mr Ward said his estimate that tax dodged was $262.4m was conservative and “based on available data and comparisons with Ireland”.
The Irish jig helped slash the profit declared by Facebook Australia to just $77m before tax, reducing the local company’s tax paid to $31m, at the same time as boosting profits in Ireland, which the EU Tax Observatory says is the world’s second-biggest corporate tax haven.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/companies/inside-the-irish-jig-meta-uses-to-slash-262m-from-aussie-tax-bills/news-story/603517a7ba03d983553b2a0e6b1d4fd0?amp
Turkey’s main opposition party has declared victory in high-stakes elections in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara. Ekrem Imamoglu, who first became opposition mayor in Istanbul in 2019, said “the picture pleases us greatly”.
A year after Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured a third term as president, he had made it his goal to win back the city where he grew up and became mayor.
But the night belonged to the main opposition as it closed in on victory.
Significantly, the secular CHP was also on course for victory in many of Turkey’s other big cities, including Izmir and Bursa, Adana and the resort of Antalya.
The outcome was a significant blow for the man who has led Turkey for the past 21 years. This was the first time since he came to power that his AK Party was defeated across the country at the ballot box. President Erdogan, 70, acknowledged the election had not gone well, but he told supporters in Ankara it would mark “not an end for us but rather a turning point”. He had led his party’s election campaign in Istanbul, vowing a new era in Turkey’s biggest city.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68704375
Hilarious.
https://youtu.be/5t51qicID9o?si=OCnrmem_y5lu68ii
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On global conflicts, they are driving a global increase in weapons purchases, not only by countries involved in wars. Australia is one of many examples here. This video by Aussie defence economist Perun goes through the details.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfMYpmrTGm0
There have been some large increases in European countries production which bodes well for Ukraine.
The relative scale of different countries production is changing, with South Korea and Turkey being among the biggest increases.
One major consequence of this is that the cost of importing weapons and ammunition is going up faster than inflation. Local production is sensible now.
Confessions @ #20 Monday, April 1st, 2024 – 8:32 am
He’s speculating about a 3rd Term federal Labor government!
What is this tommy rot and nonsense, an April Fools joke?
There is only one successor to the PM, Sunshine State boy, Jim Chalmers. I think everyone knows that already.
Pied Piper. @ #18 Monday, April 1st, 2024 – 8:21 am
And you probably thought that the Coalition being behind for 30+ Newspolls in a row was just fine and that they would come from behind to win. 😐
C@t:
Must be an April Fool’s joke. I keep forgetting about 1 April, especially when it’s not a work day.
I’m putting this:
Turkey’s main opposition party has declared victory in high-stakes elections in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara.
The outcome was a significant blow for the man who has led Turkey for the past 21 years. This was the first time since he came to power that his AK Party was defeated across the country at the ballot box. President Erdogan, 70, acknowledged the election had not gone well, but he told supporters in Ankara it would mark “not an end for us but rather a turning point”.
Together with this:
The relative scale of different countries production is changing, with South Korea and Turkey being among the biggest increases.
And coming to the not unreasonable conclusion that Erdogan will not want to sell those arms to Russia, China or Middle East theocracies. If he wants to be re-elected again next time.
Confessions @ #27 Monday, April 1st, 2024 – 8:55 am
I was going to make the first comment of the day an April Fools Day joke along the lines of Trump has been taken into custody in America, but then I thought that too many people would believe me. 😀
Oops labor miles in front in vic.
Just saw the front page of todays west Aussie via their website says it all for labor and Stokes.
Confessions says:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 8:05 am
Never thought I’d see the day the Coalition leads the Greens with the youth vote! What’s happened?
_________
Gen Z. There is a conservative counter-culture. More so among men. Perhaps to distinguish from older Millenials and Gen X parents?
C@t:
Except I think we’ve had too many false flags during the Trump era to believe he’d be taken into custody. Ever.
Former President Trump went after the flurry of GOP House members leaving their seats this year, throwing the already razor-thin Republican majority up in the air.
“Never forget our cowards and weaklings! Such a disgrace,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday in response to an article about outgoing Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.).
Trump’s Easter criticisms were aimed at Gallagher and Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who both chose to retire early from Congress, leaving their seats empty. Gallagher will resign from Congress in mid-April, leaving his seat open until next January, while Buck resigned last week to be replaced in June.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4566635-trump-attacks-resigning-gop-reps-as-cowards-and-weaklings-as-majority-thins/
FYI chocolate to double in price: The cost of cocoa, chocolate’s main ingredient, has been increasing all year, hitting a record high just before Valentine’s Day and again this week, when it was priced at more than $10,000 a tonne – meaning it is currently more valuable than several precious metals, and growing in value more quickly than bitcoin. Increasing costs stem from a cocoa shortage in west Africa, in particular Ghana and Ivory Coast, where more than half of the world’s cocoa beans are harvested. According to experts, the shortage is explained by interconnected factors including climate-related weather events and exploitation inherent in the cocoa industry. It has come at a time of increased global demand, also contributing to scarcity and subsequent price rises.
One of the comments on that Age/SMH article re future ALP leaders sums the reality up nicely.
Not sure the point of this article given Albo has just been elected and so much can change in 6 years (Two more terms) when he would likely step away. I would have thought if you did the same article on Peter Dutton, it would be finished in one paragraph. The LNP have no talent, no plan ‘B’ and no hope.
Most of the comments are similarly negative to the article
”
Confessionssays:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 8:05 am
Never thought I’d see the day the Coalition leads the Greens with the youth vote! What’s happened?
”
As Tony Abbott said “Sh*t happens”.
In recent elections/ by-elections after May 2022 federal election, except for Brisbane council elections, Greens political party went backwards. Even in Tasmania state election, there is not much change to their PV. Although Libs lost quarter of their vote, Greens hardly gained anything.
Confessions @ #32 Monday, April 1st, 2024 – 9:06 am
True dat. 🙂
#weatheronPB
The sun hesitates,
but then chances a quick look,
through the cool grey sky.
Yet the crazed male leaders of the Houthis can still afford bombs and killer drones:
What is the main reason for poverty in Yemen?
Yemen Crisis Explained
Nine years of protracted conflict have pushed the country to the brink of economic collapse, shrinking the economy by more than half since the beginning of the conflict. 21.6 million people in Yemen are now in need of humanitarian assistance and protection services.
21 Mar 2024
An Easter Bunny made from Hazelnuts or Carob just wouldn’t be the same. 🙁
Fingers crossed, Finally some rain forecast for my part of world.
It is so dry that the grass leaves are crunchy beneath your feet.
I see that Massola, one of Costello’s minions, is up for a bit of moral panic mongering on the Labor leadership front.
Absolutely shameless stuff.
Massola might have spent some time on the succession plans for Bandt, Littleproud and Dutton.
Shoebridge, Joyce & Ley?
Government by zany zingers.
Albanese going at an admirable pace, considered, durable and positive.
The forces of gloom and doom are just that. (mostly just liver complaints)
The media have had the foot on their pedal since day one.
Albanese has a strong well performing ministry. Most attacks are on the fringe as the ministry is well performing and successful.
The budget and the economic indicators are all good.
Housing and income inequality are “birth defects” after a complicated, truncated and compromised national gestation and birth. These problems have been “managed” with various measures of success from genocide to more discreet forms of discrimination.
Crime is rampant from the boardrooms to the streets, not helped by the exposure of the malfeasance all over the Morrison government, it’s nepotism, discrimination and disrespect for law.
Albanese and Labor will not be given any respite between now and the election from an array of sources, all poking their collective heads above the parapet hoping to be significant.
Throwing things at a government with its “head in the stocks” is a pandemic, replacing traditional religions with ferocity and fervour.
It’s as contradictory as the greens opposing wind turbines, as ludicrous as “every child deserves a nuclear reactor”, as shallow as the mobilization of the “ute” brigade and as thoughtless as acknowledging the poor after the second glass of chardonnay.
Politics employs otherwise “useless” types, in the parliaments, in and around the media and on an array of accessible forums.
Humans are greedy, grubby and egocentric.
Some “humans” in Australia can’t cope with some honesty, integrity and consideration for the less well off.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 9:13 am
Yet the crazed male leaders of the Houthis can still afford bombs and killer drones:
What is the main reason for poverty in Yemen?
Yemen Crisis Explained
Nine years of protracted conflict have pushed the country to the brink of economic collapse, shrinking the economy by more than half since the beginning of the conflict. 21.6 million people in Yemen are now in need of humanitarian assistance and protection services.
21 Mar 2024′
——————-
1. A merciless civil war.
2. Proxy war by way of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
3. Overpopulation.
4. Half of the irrigation water not used to grow food crops but instead to grow khat – a cash crop that benefits those in power.
5. Administrative incompetence.
6. Armed disruption of supply systems by the Houthis.
7. Climate change.
8. Failed state.
9. A Houthi leadership that prioritises genocide over civil values.
10. A lack of democracy.
11. A lack of liberal values.
This is excellent news, IMO.
Erdogan has exhibited more and more draconian tendencies to setting up a personal islamic autocracy. This has been coupled with extensive war fighting in northern syria and northern iraq. It is coupled with huge defence spending. It is coupled with high inflation rates.
IMO, this is a hip pocket nerve response and also a credit to Turkish democratic institutions.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/31/turkey-local-elections-istanbul-mayor-ekrem-imamoglu-recep-tayyip-erdogan
Ok Richmond Alliance, shocking news is surfacing from Headquarters this morning.
Andrew Dillon will be holding a press conference at 10am because apparently we had 19 players on the ground during the last quarter of yesterday’s match against Sydney. Looks likely we’ll lose the 4 points.
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Was at the ‘G’ yesterday, so this one got me for a second.
Morning all.
Before the Houthis started sending missiles at shipping there was a years long internal conflict proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia – both of them authoritarian regimes that state-sponsor fundamentalist terrorist organisations.
It barely rated a mention here, though I have on several occasions objected to Australian arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile the civil war has caused a major humanitarian disaster in Yemen.
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C@tmomma
What do you think “if the collective resources of NATO and EU member states are fully mobilized against it” means?
Because I think it means NATO and the EU declaring war on Russia.
Is that what you want?
Has Yemen ever been anything other than a failed state?
Disparate tribal groups in civil war since British colonial times and then a proxy cold war battle. The current iteration of Yemen was cobbled together when the collapse of the USSR made South Yemen unviable.
I suspect the most peaceful solution is a recognition of the de facto split between two states.
The fed lib/nats propaganda media units have nothing
51% 18-35 are not going to make much difference for the fed lib/nats if majority are not voting for the fed lib/nats in WA
‘yabba says:
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 8:15 am
For c@t and a few others
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/30/isolated-abroad-torn-apart-at-home-israel-must-face-the-future-it-dreads-a-palestinian-state
Which way is north?’
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Excellent question and excellently framed.
North points to the substantial elements in the Israeli government, Iran, Iranian-owned terror groups in Syria and Iraq, Heshbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, ALL of whom have espoused genocide.
Once your vision statement is genocide no lesser action needs any moral compass at all. That includes murder, rape, kidnapping, bombing and starving your enemies. In this space there is zero ethical difference between an armed enemy soldier and enemy children. There is zero ethical difference between a pre-schooler in a kibbutz and a child on life support in a hospital in Gaza.
The major practical difference ATM appears to be ability to deliver on their vision statements. But that is not for want of trying. Hamas was apparently hoping to trigger all out regional war, for example. One consequence is that Houthi attacks on shipping are delaying aid to famine victims in Somalia and, surprise, suprise, to Yemen. But the thing about genocidal visions is that this is all OK. Similarly, Israel is doing its worst to delay and obstruct aid shipments to starving children in Gaza. Again, that is all OK.
In terms of the Gaza famine it is 100% clear that both sides are putting their genocidal visions above complying with the relevant UN resoution, with both sides thereby expediting massive humanitarian assistance to Gazans.
Inter alia this creates huge problems for any Australian government. The first is that ANY aid of ANY kind to ANYONE is, de facto, aiding rulers who are genocidal. The second is that Australia has, de facto, two home fronts: one for Israel and one for Iran/Hamas/Heshbollah/Houthis. Again, in the context of genocide, keeping the home fronters to behaviours consistent with liberal values and democratic values is a major challenge. Social media is replete with outrage mongering of the worst propaganda kinds. For the Government a major challenge is keeping a lid on islamophobia and anti-semitism, hate speech, criminal behaviours by those seeking to make a propaganda point and inter-communal racist acts.
Cat
Regarding Erdogan yes Turkey is now (more) firmly in the EU tent. Turkey could never afford not to be. I think Erdogan just wanted to play Turkey’s NATO vote for all it was worth till after the Turkish election. With that over, and concessions extracted from Brussels, there is no reason for him to side with Putin. And of course Turkey has a long standing conflict with Russia over who dominates the Black Sea. Erdogan is still a corrupt autocrat, but not an idiot.