Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Labor falls behind in one poll and moves ahead in another. Also: Liberal preselection news for McPherson and the ACT Senate ticket.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, Labor by two to 31% and the Coalition by one to 35%, with undecided down two to 4%. The Greens are on 11%, reversing a three-point spike last time, and One Nation gets its best result for the term with a three-point surge to 9%. The Coalition moves back into the lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up three to 49% with Labor down one to 47%. The monthly leadership ratings find Peter Dutton with net positive approval for the first time from this or any other pollster, with a four-point gain on approval to 44% and a three-point drop on disapproval to 41%. Anthony Albanese up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 43% and 48% respectively.

A regular question on national mood found a one-point increase in those who consider the country headed in the wrong direction to 50% and a one point drop on right direction to 32%. When it was put to respondents that the government’s Future Made in Australia policy would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, 51% were in favour with 18% opposed. Fifty-two per cent said they would support nuclear power, up two from October, with 31% opposed, down two. A question on Israel’s military action in Gaza recorded a five-point drop in those who thought Israel should permanently withdraw to 32%, with 19% considering its actions justified (up one) and 19% favouring a temporary ceasefire (down one). Twenty-nine per cent supported recognition of a Palestinian state with 24% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.

After two successive polls with the Coalition in the lead, the latest weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor back in front 52-48 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition is down three to 35.5%, the Greens are up two-and-a-half to 16% and One Nation is steady at 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1617.

Preselection news:

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons, won a Liberal National Party preselection on the weekend to succeed the retiring Karen Andrews in McPherson. Other candidates were Ben Naday, lawyer and former staffer to Andrews, and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.

Ian Bushnell of RiotACT reports four candidates have nominated for a Liberal preselection vote to be held on Saturday to choose the party’s lead Senate candidate in the Australian Capital Territory: Giulia Jones, who served in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2022; Jerry Nockles, deputy chief executive of Independent Higher Education Australia and unsuccessful candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2022; Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy; and Kacey Lam-Evans, a former ministerial adviser to Christopher Pyne who now works for his lobbying firm. Zed Seselja lost the party’s ACT Senate seat to independent David Pocock at the 2022 election.

Mark Phillips of Brunswick Voice reports Samantha Ratnam, the Greens state party leader, has won the party preselection ballot for the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, prevailing over the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

389 comments on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Lars
    PNSI are still threatening action against anyone naming the alleged victims of Sir Jeffrey and Lady Donaldson although they were bandied about on the net in the early days post arrest and doesn’t take much to work out.
    The delay to court may be 18 months.

  2. Kirsdarke says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:45 pm
    And now along gallops FUBAR, declaring that all these women being murdered isn’t such a significant thing, so we might as well go back to ignoring them so let’s just get back to our comfort zone and ignore the problem that we can detect with our eyes and ears.

    I didn’t say anything of the sort. No one should be murdered and in this day of equality of the sexes everyone should be treated equally.

    Why are female murders so much worse than male murders and shouldn’t we be looking to reduce the male murders as well as female murders?

    The same issue arises for incarceration. The imbalance in the incarceration of Aboriginals relative to the rest of society is a problem that deserves significant attention and efforts to fix. Yes, the massive over representation of males versus females incarcerated receives zero attention.

    The same applies for the lower life expectancy of males and the lower University enrolments and graduates.

    Equality only for some.

  3. It’s pretty obvious – should rates go up as foreshadowed by barrenjoey that will pretty much kill of labor’s chances in the next election.

    I thought that was obvious – but maybe not.

  4. I do not understand this.

    Is it saying that Australian WW1 troops are responsible for the situation in contemporary Gaza?

    History of that area began in 1915?

  5. Oc given the nature of the allegations against Donaldson , how can the DUP have him back (even if exonerated) given their save ulster from sodomy antecedents.

  6. The Court registrar granted bail in the Billings case, not a Magistrate.

    That means it was a matter heard by weekend Bail Court, or a court where the magistrate could not be present.

    Court registrars are not in a position to have all facts and other matters before them at such sittings.

    Having said that the police prosecutor would have asked that bail be refused.

    The registrar made a decision based on whatever facts were before them.

  7. @FUBAR

    Oh you’re really contesting this at this moment? Honestly can’t really be bothered fully doing the instant-courtroom routine considering how bad-faith you are in this discussion so I’ll just say the basics – lack of escape, young children often involved, lack of personal household power, toxic masculinity, etc, all that and more leads to this situation where toxic men end up murdering women that they deem as “problems” in their lives.

  8. He is history, no matter the result but;
    1. Will he resign as MP for Lagan Valley? there is speculation that Alliance would win a by-election.
    2. Everyone is swearing perpetual allegiance to Gavin Robinson but the hard men must surely act – is the age of Gregory Campbell about to dawn?


  9. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:13 pm
    @Irene at 8:09pm

    Oh for fuck sake, it’s honestly ridiculous how quickly you try to whiplash this into being the personal fault of Albanese.

    Kirsdarke
    According to Irene and Rex, everything that is wrong in this country or some other country to which Australia is allied with is Albanese’s fault.

    Have you considered a political scenario where Liberal party dirt unit(LPDU) sent out people to comment on social websites attacking from left, where LPDU can provide the information to them, which will make people like Rainman blood boil?
    We read people like Rainman and Sohar, who said they were life long Labor voters but cannot vote for them anymore. It is after reading things on social media.

    People like Irene and Rex behave as if nothing wrong happened during Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments times. They acknowledge something wrong happened during that time with some throw away lines if fact placed in front of them.
    But they behave as if why the numerous ills of society are not yet fixed in the last 2 years when Albanese government is in power.

    Unfortunately Democracy is a slow beast and ATM governments have put many obstacles by legislating them.


  10. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:23 pm
    Irene @ #313 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:09 pm

    Kirsdarke says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 5:56 pm
    Developments in the Cobram woman Emma Bates’ death.
    ……….
    ……
    No leadership from Albanese. Or Dreyfus. I guess no matter how many more violent deaths Australian women suffer from a male they know, those two will turn their heads away.

    To label these killings as terrorism, which it is, can’t happen in their man’s world.

    You are truly a scurvy knave. A scumbag as well. With an entirely predictable m.o. How do you sleep at night creating such disgustingly false scenarios about our Prime Minister?

    Learnt from experts like Rex and Lars. 🙂

  11. Rikali
    I think the chronology of Ottoman defeat, Sykes-Picot agreement and Balfour declaration had more to do with the current morass than anything that happened in the previous 1500 years.

  12. Fubar, your equation re male/female murders is reprehensible!

    All decent people here find it reprehensible!

    What percentage of males are killed by their partners?

    Can you tell us that?

    I doubt even your fellow travellers will back you on that.

    Fubar, you are losing credibility!


  13. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:23 pm
    Stronger action must be taken against men credibly accused of stalking, threatening or abusing women.

    Investigating every claim to the level of ‘credible’, you’re goimg to need a larger Police Service.
    History tells us that the “protection” supposedly afforded by an apprehended violence order is often no protection at all.

    No it doesn’t.
    What the tabloids tell us is that if you’re a TV celebrity or retired sportsman, you’ll get endless goes at breaking an AVO.
    If you’re Neville Nobody, you’ll get 6 months Gaol first up.

    If are someone like Trump you won’t ever get Gaol.

  14. @Ven at 9:25pm

    Yeah, I know, just at times like tonight that maybe it might be better to call this bullshit out rather than just let it pass and let the pro-Coalition narrative have their way without question.

    Namely that a method of anchoring on to human rationality is repetition, and if we let these right wing arseholes get away with their narrative being unquestioned, then more and more people will believe what they say and so they’ll be more likely to vote for the Coalition, or at least direct their preferences to them.

  15. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 9:35 pm
    Rikali
    I think the chronology of Ottoman defeat, Sykes-Picot agreement and Balfour declaration had more to do with the current morass than anything that happened in the previous 1500 years.
    ================================================

    Agree with that assertion.

  16. “Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:45 pm
    And now along gallops FUBAR, declaring that all these women being murdered isn’t such a significant thing, so we might as well go back to ignoring them so let’s just get back to our comfort zone and ignore the problem that we can detect with our eyes and ears

    Like Howard and ATM governments did all those years. Mind you it was not 1 or 2 years. They ignored for 20 years.

  17. Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 9:35 pm
    Rikali
    I think the chronology of Ottoman defeat, Sykes-Picot agreement and Balfour declaration had more to do with the current morass than anything that happened in the previous 1500 years.
    ————-

    Thank you, but the signs on the donkey have “Australian Imperial Forces” and “Gallipoli” (in Turkey?) before the “Ottoman Defeat”?


  18. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 9:42 pm
    @Ven at 9:25pm

    Yeah, I know, just at times like tonight that maybe it might be better to call this bullshit out rather than just let it pass and let the pro-Coalition narrative have their way without question.

    Namely that a method of anchoring on to human rationality is repetition, and if we let these right wing arseholes get away with their narrative being unquestioned, then more and more people will believe what they say and so they’ll be more likely to vote for the Coalition, or at least direct their preferences to them.

    Kirsdarke: Namely that a method of anchoring on to human rationality is repetition

    Me: Like majority people thinking that Renewables energy is more expensive than nuclear energy.

  19. I think the “imperial” was more relevant than the “Australian”.
    Australia’s role in WWI being as purely an agent of the British Empire and, in this instance ensuring the break up of the Ottoman Empire and resulting distribution between the British and French.
    The link is there
    (I like that Duffy, the donkey is wearing the Red Crescent rather than the Red Cross. He was, after all, a Turkish donkey.)

  20. FUBAR
    I didn’t say anything of the sort. No one should be murdered and in this day of equality of the sexes everyone should be treated equally.

    Why are female murders so much worse than male murders and shouldn’t we be looking to reduce the male murders as well as female murders?

    The same issue arises for incarceration. The imbalance in the incarceration of Aboriginals relative to the rest of society is a problem that deserves significant attention and efforts to fix. Yes, the massive over representation of males versus females incarcerated receives zero attention.

    The same applies for the lower life expectancy of males and the lower University enrolments and graduates.

    Equality only for some.
    —————
    Get the point you are making but there’s a group of men not coping as adults and violence behavior points to a growing problem of men being left behind.

  21. @Ven at 9:55pm

    Yes it might seem ridiculous to rational people that most Australians would support Nuclear Energy over Renewables, but most Australians of voting age have grown up and been very much amused by the shenanigans of the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant as portrayed in The Simpsons, so if they get convinced by enough right-wing uncles at birthday parties and don’t fully understand the whole chain of consequences of such a system then they’ll think it can all be handled by a dickhead like Homer Simpson and they can get free energy forever with minimal downsides.

  22. Oakeshott

    I like that Duffy, the donkey is wearing the Red Crescent rather than the Red Cross. He was, after all, a Turkish donkey..

    ———-
    Duffy doesn’t sound like a Muslim name…. :). And 20% of the middle east was still Christian at that time. It’s before the commencement of the Ottoman genocides.

  23. FUBAR
    “I didn’t say anything of the sort. No one should be murdered and in this day of equality of the sexes everyone should be treated equally.

    Why are female murders so much worse than male murders and shouldn’t we be looking to reduce the male murders as well as female murders?”

    And the Liberals wonder why they are having trouble with the women’s vote?

    If we shift the focus to who is committing the murders, we will soon see where the problem lies.

  24. I’ve been reading the posts about men murdering women and I thought this article might be of interest. It’s a short read.

    ‘Does toxic masculinity explain why men kill women? Perhaps not as much as we thought’

    Samara McPhedran
    Honorary Associate Professor, The University of Queensland
    Published: April 21, 2022

    https://stories.uq.edu.au/research/2022/does-toxic-masculinity-explain-why-men-kill-women-perhaps-not-as-much-as-we-thought/index.html

  25. Yo Rainman!

    Great article from Samara McPhedran, well researched.

    Can only hope some here read it.

    Cheers!

    Bedtime for me, take care all!

  26. Re. my earlier post on a presumption against bail for allegations of serious domestic violence incidents: it would be rebuttable. The presumption would provide an added layer of protection to a vulnerable complainant, as was the case of Molly Ticehurst. The legal test is that a rebuttal must be supported by persuasive evidence (more than a mere likelihood) supporting a different conclusion. Granted, it’s a high threshold but it needs to be.

  27. From https://www.drive.com.au/reviews/2025-porsche-macan-electric-stuttgarts-biggest-gamble-yet/

    Should I buy a Porsche Macan?
    Yes, you should, especially if you like the idea of an electric SUV, with all the practicality inherent in the formula, combined with zero tailpipe emissions motoring.

    Umm, I can just imagine my wife’s reaction if I said I wanted to spend >$133k on a new car. But honey, the website told me we should buy it.

    Then again, if I could afford it perhaps I might:

    This might be a brave new world for Porsche, the Macan the first model in its storied line-up to transition from combustion to electric power, but the boffins in Stuttgart have nailed it.

    The electric Macan is, quite simply, a better car than the one it replaces.
    2025 Porsche Macan electric: Stuttgart’s biggest gamble yet

  28. bc says:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:18 am
    From https://www.drive.com.au/reviews/2025-porsche-macan-electric-stuttgarts-biggest-gamble-yet/

    Should I buy a Porsche Macan?
    Yes, you should, especially if you like the idea of an electric SUV, with all the practicality inherent in the formula, combined with zero tailpipe emissions motoring.

    Don’t know about Macan but I walk past a Taycan most days on my stay here in West Wales. A lazy $160k sitting there outside a local guest house plugged into a fast charger. Guess some of the 1% holiday here as well as me. Btw: nice car but happy with my MG 4.

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