YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The fifth federal opinion poll of the week is the best of the bunch for Labor.

A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.

Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:39 pm

    Israel is a damaged democracy

    No, it isn’t. Just because they elected someone you do not politically like does not make it a damaged democracy. It is a proportional representation democracy and that almost always produces sub-optimal outcomes where a minority of voters have excessive power. If it were a left-wing government then you would be happy.

  2. Excellent thoughtful post at 12.21 AE regarding DV. It’s amazing what can be achieved when a little common sense is applied.

  3. ‘Bystander says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:40 pm

    Arky
    I totally agree with you regarding the need for more shelters for women and children who are under threat. It’s a no-brainer.

    I am about to read Erin Pizzey’s book who established the first such shelter in the world (in England) and has since established them in many countries, despite the initial attacks from militant feminists, who were determined to shut her down. Apparently they didn’t take too kindly to her discovery that women can be violent too.’
    ——————-
    One of our tasks as grandparents is to help socialize our grandchildren. This involves teaching them how to recognize and manage their anger. It involves teaching them alternative solutions to violence. It involves teaching them that violence is completely unacceptable. As part of this, we teach them to recognize and manage language that incites violence.

    We find that we have to teach ALL of the above to both boys and girls.

  4. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:39 pm
    ‘BK says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:36 pm

    Did he forget to ask Jenny about what to do?
    ______
    Did God not get around to telling him?’
    =====================
    She must have run out of eagles.
    =========================================

    I believe the job had been assigned to the “Haast’s eagle”. Unfortunately they weren’t where she had put them when she needed one.

  5. ‘FUBAR says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:47 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:39 pm

    Israel is a damaged democracy

    No, it isn’t. Just because they elected someone you do not politically like does not make it a damaged democracy. It is a proportional representation democracy and that almost always produces sub-optimal outcomes where a minority of voters have excessive power. If it were a left-wing government then you would be happy.’
    ——————–
    This is specious bullshit.

    When Israelis themselves demonstrate by the tens of thousands at Netanyahu’s assault on judicial freedom then it is reasonable to assume that Israeli democracy is being damaged.

    Other than that Israel has increasingly demonstrated elements of a police state including summary arrest, holding citizens incommunicado and the torture of prisoners.

    I could go on but the notion that Israel is a perfect democracy is not supported by the available evidence.

  6. Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.
    That’s since turned out to be a mistaken belief, to be further reinforced by the Reynolds Defamation in July.
    The issue then was a woman in a vulnerable state being raped by someone she knew.
    That issue is still live, and if Albo had any sense, he’d tackle it, rather than grandstand on Domestic Violence, and end up pissing everone off.

  7. Entropy
    Haha. Poroti’s fave bird. As I understand it, Maori ate the Haast’s prey birds, the moas, and that was that.

  8. ‘Badthinker says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:54 pm

    Most agree…’
    ————-
    The ATM was kicked out because of ten years of misogyny, corruption and climate destruction.

  9. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:44 pm
    Bystander @ #447 Friday, April 26th, 2024 – 12:40 pm

    Arky
    I totally agree with you regarding the need for more shelters for women and children who are under threat. It’s a no-brainer.

    I am about to read Erin Pizzey’s book who established the first such shelter in the world (in England) and has since established them in many countries, despite the initial attacks from militant feminists, who were determined to shut her down. Apparently they didn’t take too kindly to her discovery that women can be violent too.

    Some facts:

    Women are more likely to experience abuse at the hands of a partner. 1 in 6 women have experienced physical or sexual violence by a current or former partner, while for men it is 1 in 16. 75% of victims of domestic violence reported the perpetrator as male, while 25% reported the perpetrator as female.

    https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/domestic-and-family-violence-statistics

    Not sure of the point you are making there C@t. But I did read your recent account of the shocking DV you experienced at the hands of your husband. So I can fully appreciate how this topic would be very triggering for you.

  10. I admit that I am a little taken back by ScoMo’s admission about relying upon modern medication to get him through his hidden anxiety condition. Especially in an inspired religious text such as his autobiography. Surely a prosperity Pentecostal like he would have found all the strength he needed in the good word:

    “Psalms 18:34:

    34 He teacheth my hands to war, so that a bow of steel is broken by mine arms. He trains my hands for war, so that my arms can bend a bow of bronze.”

  11. Brian Tyler Cohen@briantylercohen

    Samuel Alito is 74. Clarence Thomas is 75. Roberts and Sotomayor are 69. The next president may very well nominate replacements for multiple (if not all!) of these justices. If Trump is president, the Supreme Court is gone for the rest of our lifetimes. That means an all-powerful executive that can commit criminal acts with impunity, a nationwide abortion ban, no restrictions on firearms, a complete dissolution of the Voting Rights Act, election vigilanteism, legalized voter suppression, and so much more.

    What we saw today at SCOTUS was a preview; it will be exponentially worse if Trump wins in November.

  12. Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.

    Absolute crap. But how Trumpy of you. Wheedling an opinion adverse to the PM by stating, without proof, ‘most agree’. Yeah nah. 😐

  13. Socrates

    What isn’t declining is murders of women by men, mostly from DV, and I think Cat and Victoria had a valid point to raise there. Whether it is social media portrayal, alienation, police inaction, lack of emergency accommodation, or court failings (as Shellbell suggested) we ought to be looking at why one category of murders (male vs female) is going back up.
    —————————————-
    It’s probably a bit of all those things but gender policymakers have known for sometime that there’s growing opposition to gender policies and that opposition is greater amongst younger people but younger people are also seen by many to be more progressive.

    There’s always been violence men and DV can and does happen across every social group but its magnified in areas of lower educational levels and poorer communities but the political class have been more into academic theory and the top quantiles. Making this worst the language and attitude of many gender policymakers has been arrogant using words like mediocre men and white men because this problem isn’t about skin colour but the problem is the use of American academic theory. The government should be asking why are boys doing worse at school and why are so many men not living healthier lives.

  14. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:54 pm
    Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.
    That’s since turned out to be a mistaken belief, to be further reinforced by the Reynolds Defamation in July.
    ================================================

    So you have read Gaetjens numerous reports that supposedly clear the PMO’s office of any wrong doing in this?. Until the rest of us get to see these reports i will reserve final judgement. Though secret reports that never get to see the light of day. Does not scream out innocence to me.

    Reynolds would be smart to pull out of her court action before July. Much of her statement that she gave in the ACT Supreme court. Was contradicted by Fiona Brown’s more recent and superior testimony in the recent trial. She does appear to be covering up, at the very least the exact details around the 1st of April meeting. Idea she only knew it was a security breach at the time of 1st of April meeting. Directly contradicts the superior testimony of Fiona Brown.\

    Note: If you believe this was sole issue the Morrison Government was voted out for you are delusional. Though i do wonder what our national debt would be if Morrison was still in?. If not for the superior economic management of the ALP i suspect it would be huge. Before the ALP turned around the economy. Frydenberg was looking at running a budget deficit of close to $80 billion to add to their already huge national debt. Plus more debt forecast in future years too.

    “The measures leave the 2022-23 budget deficit at $78 billion, something set to shrink to $43 billion over the following three years, but with no help from savings in this budget.”
    https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-frydenberg-has-spent-big-but-on-the-whole-responsibly-180122

  15. Bystander,
    I have had to sit here today and see men complain about how badly done by THEY are when it comes to domestic violence. Look, I get it, but when one woman every 4 days is being murdered by her partner, and in comparison men, at the rate of 1/16 are experiencing violence and not necessarily murder at the hands of their female partners, please excuse me if I don’t express the requisite amount of sympathy for those men and a quantum more sympathy for women. I simply provided some statistics before we get the mistaken impression that men are suffering anywhere near what women are. Also, I appreciate your sympathy but I don’t need it, it sounds a tad condescending. I’m not arguing for myself, I’m arguing on behalf of all the women who didn’t escape with their lives.

  16. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:58 pm
    Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.

    Absolute crap. But how Trumpy of you. Wheedling an opinion adverse to the PM by stating, without proof, ‘most agree’. Yeah nah.
    ——————–
    Albo said just after the election that his election was more about voters rejecting Morrison.

    Morrison had many problems and one of them was the liberals had a women problem and had mistreated Brittany Higgins.

  17. Mexicanbeemer @ #469 Friday, April 26th, 2024 – 1:04 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:58 pm
    Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.

    Absolute crap. But how Trumpy of you. Wheedling an opinion adverse to the PM by stating, without proof, ‘most agree’. Yeah nah.
    ——————–
    Albo said just after the election that his election was more about voters rejecting Morrison.

    Morrison had many problems and one of them was the liberals had a women problem and had mistreated Brittany Higgins.

    As Julia Gillard famously said, “It was something, but it wasn’t everything.”

  18. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:52 pm

    I could go on but the notion that Israel is a perfect democracy

    No democracy is perfect.

    Show us a better one in the Middle East.

  19. Does Albo agree?
    Otherwise, why start a national conversation over DV, when the big issue at the time he got elected was young woman in a vulnerable state being raped by someone she knew and the Government perceived to have covered it up?
    From IA:

    Higgins also alleged that during the first meeting in the office of her then-boss Senator Linda Reynolds following the alleged rape, Reynolds told her:

    “These are things that women go through.”

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/these-are-things-that-women-go-through-the-lehrmann-trial,18134
    If Reynolds alleged words to Higgins are factual, then there’s a huge issue there that Albo is avoiding.

  20. Boerwar says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:30 pm
    Irene, predictably, ignores the genocidal vision statements made by Iran, Heshbollah, the Houthies and Hamas.
    ———————
    Dumb comment. They are irrelevant in Netanyahu’s agenda. Have effectively no influence, weapons. When pitted against the USA, UK, Germany.

    Mice compared to the lion.

    But I guess to support Israel, BW will say anything.

  21. FUBAR says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:08 pm

    ‘Boerwarsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:52 pm

    I could go on but the notion that Israel is a perfect democracy

    No democracy is perfect.

    Show us a better one in the Middle East….’
    ——————–
    Shifting the goalposts.

    My original point is that it doesn’t matter whether the players are democracies or thugocracies. They have ALL made genocidal vision statements.

  22. Badthinker says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:09 pm
    Does Albo agree?
    Otherwise, why start a national conversation over DV, when the big issue at the time he got elected was young woman in a vulnerable state being raped by someone she knew and the Government perceived to have covered it up?
    From IA:

    ———.

    Albo doesn’t want to start a national conversation.

    He wants it firmly on what his view of terrorism is : someone knifing a religious leader in a church. Why his focus is on X. And Elon Musk.

    Certainly doesn’t want domestic violence called terrorism. Is he a misogynist?

    From a recent ABC report: April 24, 2024
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described it as a “crisis”, noting that one woman a week dies at the hands of someone they know or someone they are in a relationship with. This year, that number is two women every nine days.

    When asked if the crisis was a national emergency, the prime minister avoided labelling it one.

    In his opinion the only crisis is the knifing of the Bishop.

    Last week, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus gave an address at a sexual violence symposium and said there needed to be a “fundamental shift in acknowledgement that” overwhelmingly, violence against women in Australia was perpetrated by men.
    The attorney-general said that to create lasting change, women could not be expected to solve violence against them alone.
    “It’s time for men to step up,” he said.

    So the Albanese Labor government’s plan is to do nothing.

    Likely the Minns government plan too. 3 men.

    Bad parenting can produce dysfunctional children. If children see their fathers bashing their mothers this may be seen as normal. And they do it if they are displeased. Blame the female.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-26/intimate-partner-violence-terrorism/103769202?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other

    NSW needs over 500 more child protection people. There are so many children that need help. And no money from governments to do it.

  23. Reading through the Hitler/Putin stuff over the last few days, leads me to a question.

    Is using Aldoff Hitler as some maximum benchmark for evil actually useful? Because:

    – Genghis Khan was a pretty bad dude, might actually be worse than Hitler, and I think the magnitude of the human toll of his regime gets discounted because it happened in central/east Asia (ie not western Europe).

    – the crimes of imperial Japan I think similarly get discounted in the west as it mainly happened in mainland Asia.

    – Mao and Stalin were pretty bad, though their worst was internal to their countries.

    – I don’t think “western” leadership should escape comparison, the UK in India, Belgium in the Congo, etc I think were “just as bad”.

    I think a new standard should be something along the lines of a behaviour relative to time and place. If we use “Hitler” as one does “Cesar” then:

    – yes, I think Putin is the “Hitler” of the 2020s

    – G Bush jr may have been in fact the “Hitler” of the 2000s.

    And we can go back decade by decade (Yugoslavia, Rwanda etc) and make a similar judgment.

  24. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:48 pm
    ‘Bystander says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:40 pm

    Arky
    I totally agree with you regarding the need for more shelters for women and children who are under threat. It’s a no-brainer.

    I am about to read Erin Pizzey’s book who established the first such shelter in the world (in England) and has since established them in many countries, despite the initial attacks from militant feminists, who were determined to shut her down. Apparently they didn’t take too kindly to her discovery that women can be violent too.’
    ——————-
    One of our tasks as grandparents is to help socialize our grandchildren. This involves teaching them how to recognize and manage their anger. It involves teaching them alternative solutions to violence. It involves teaching them that violence is completely unacceptable. As part of this, we teach them to recognize and manage language that incites violence.

    We find that we have to teach ALL of the above to both boys and girls.

    Excellent and insightful post Boerwar. A very good friend of mine is a very strong believer that the kind of socialisation to which you refer was largely lost when western society moved from an extended family system with grandparents, parents and children all under the one roof to what we have today. He also believes that the extended family was a big brake on the potential for domestic violence, which we no longer have. I think he’s probably right on that.

  25. “ Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.”

    ____

    This statement is a LNP-Newscorpse passion project to rewrite history.

    Before the Higgins saga broke ScoMo was already on the nose over half a dozen different issues, ranging from his lack of preparedness and response to the Black Summer Bushfires through – past the breaking of Higgins’ allegations and Channel 10’s piece – to his failure to order the Pfizer in time to mitigate the worst of the Gladys delta outbreak in late 2021.

    It was his lack of competence in governance that done him in & the Higgins saga – which first broke in early 2021 – was merely emblematic of his standing – and that of his party – on other long standing problems; including ‘women problems’ stemming from his treatment of female MPs within his own party room.

    Moreover, Morrison led an awful and corrupt pork barrelling government that had wasted a decade of opportunity by the time the 2022 election rolled around.

    I’d suggest that ‘Higgins’ had nothing to do with any of the seats that the LNP lost to Labor (or for that matter the two seats that the Greens picked up in Brisbane).

    I’d say that it only had a partial contribution to the loss of heartland seats to the Teals (and in that regard Kali beat Abbott 2 years before the Higgins saga broke, and Wentworth proved that it was ripe for a high profile non LNP candidate back in the 2018 byelection, plus Sharkey picked up Mayo as far back as 2015). Swinging voters in those seats seem to have been motivated by far more than the plight of Brittney Higgins. The lack of action on climate change, the role of women within the LNP more generally & especially in the face of the takeover of the party by cookers, religious freaks and wing nuts. These issues won’t go away if somehow Linda Reynolds is ‘vindicated’ in a WA defo case.

    Morrison and the LNP lost because they were awful and long in the tooth and out of relevant ideas.

  26. Hey Irene, speaking about dumb comments, how about you being sucked in hook, line and gullible goldfish sinker about the real estate company’s plans to build luxury homes for Israelis in Gaza! 😆
    As PT Barnum would say, ‘there’s a sucker born every minute’.

  27. ‘Irene says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:10 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:30 pm
    Irene, predictably, ignores the genocidal vision statements made by Iran, Heshbollah, the Houthies and Hamas.
    ———————
    Dumb comment. They are irrelevant in Netanyahu’s agenda. Have effectively no influence, weapons. When pitted against the USA, UK, Germany.

    Mice compared to the lion.

    But I guess to support Israel, BW will say anything.’
    —————————–
    I don’t support any organization that has a vision statement of genocide.

    You do, apparently.

    Your sole argument is that Israel is better at achieving genocidal outcomes than the Iran axis.

    I have close to zero doubt that if the military shoe were on the other foot then most of the current wave of slaughter would be of Israeli jews.

    Even a temporary ascendancy on October 7 demonstrated this.

    Statements from senior Hamas leaders since indicates that they have zero intention of resiling from October 7.

    As noted previously, both sides have made genocidal vision statements. It follows that anything less to this end is morally acceptable. IMO, to support either side is to support genocide.

  28. Federal budget on track for second successive surplus, fiscal update shows

    Figures out today from the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, offer the latest indication the Albanese government is on track to post a second consecutive budget surplus.

    The underlying cash balance for the 2023-24 financial year to 31 March 2024 – or three-quarters of the way in – was a deficit of $1.8bn. However, the projection in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook was for a deficit by this point of about $6bn.

    Instead, payments have been $4.8bn shy of what had been expected by now, while receipts have fallen by a smaller $649m than projected.

    When the 2023-24 budget was announced last May, it projected a budget deficit of $13.9bn, a shortfall that shrank to $1.1bn by the mid-year update. The latest figures indicate the gap will be closed, and then some, in the final quarter of this fiscal year.

  29. Badthinker, were you smirking when you wrote that Friday, April 26th, 2024 – 12:54 pm comment, or do you really think Australian are one issue voters who solely made their mind up about the Scott Morrison government because of Brittany Higgins?

    I dont remember any adverts about white dresses in 2022, but I do remember a lot of ads with Scott Morrison saying, I dont hold a hose mate. So maybe, just maybe, Australians voted against Scott, and not for Brittany.

  30. While I disagree with alot of Irenes views, for those who seem focused on the “israeli property developers in gaza” stuff up, you seem to be ignoring the actual comments made about longterm/permanent occupation of Gaza by Israel from members of the Israeli government and military, including within the last 24 hours which had the Minister of Defence attempt to downplay leaked plans for long term military occupation.

  31. Taylormadesays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 8:26 am
    Way above my knowledge level, but many men struggle with rejection. Even the gay Sydney cop.
    Most cases are women wanting to break it off, but men being unable to accept it and move on.
    How you stop that I have no idea.
    ——————–
    Yep and not enough attention is given to teaching men how to move on because its these men that start listening to the Andrew Tates.

  32. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:09 pm
    Does Albo agree?
    Otherwise, why start a national conversation over DV, when the big issue at the time he got elected was young woman in a vulnerable state being raped by someone she knew and the Government perceived to have covered it up?
    From IA:

    Higgins also alleged that during the first meeting in the office of her then-boss Senator Linda Reynolds following the alleged rape, Reynolds told her:

    “These are things that women go through.”

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/these-are-things-that-women-go-through-the-lehrmann-trial,18134
    If Reynolds alleged words to Higgins are factual, then there’s a huge issue there that Albo is avoiding.
    ===================================================

    How is warped and crazy thinking by a past LNP female Minister. Anything to do with Albo?. LNP misogyny is their problem. If it has been so ingrained in that institution that even the few high up females in that institution believe their misogynistic ideology, it is certainly a problem. Yes it is a real problem but one for the LNP. It is more a problem that the Australian public can fix, than Albo though. As the Australian public have the power to show such an ideology is just wrong. By voting the misogynistic lot of them out at the next election.

  33. Lordbain @ #482 Friday, April 26th, 2024 – 1:23 pm

    While I disagree with alot of Irenes views, for those who seem focused on the “israeli property developers in gaza” stuff up, you seem to be ignoring the actual comments made about longterm/permanent occupation of Gaza by Israel from members of the Israeli government and military, including within the last 24 hours which had the Minister of Defence attempt to downplay leaked plans for long term military occupation.

    Not the point. Irene used the ‘Gaza real estate plan’ as the basis for a big sledge. It just wasn’t true and I believe fake news like that needs to be called out.

  34. I’d like to share a friend’s story.

    When he was living with his ex and two kids she decided to call the cops and accused him of DV. When the police turned up he was placed under arrest whilst professing his innocence. He has no criminal record for violent crime, there was no precedent.

    He was placed, handcuffed, in to the back of the paddy wagon, in full view of the neighbours, whilst a female copper spoke to his ex. She accused him of strangling her, but her neck was remarkably free of red marks or bruising. The copper asked again what had happened and said if that were the case then there would be evidence of it . His ex was reminded about the repercussions of making false police statements and decided to drop the accusation.

    My friend was released.

    This was but one story from their toxic relationship. My friend was suicidal at one point.

  35. ‘Lordbain says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:23 pm

    While I disagree with alot of Irenes views, for those who seem focused on the “israeli property developers in gaza” stuff up, you seem to be ignoring the actual comments made about longterm/permanent occupation of Gaza by Israel from members of the Israeli government and military, including within the last 24 hours which had the Minister of Defence attempt to downplay leaked plans for long term military occupation.’
    ——————–
    When both sides are focused on genocide then anything goes.

    Going to isolated particulars nearly always involving supporting one side or the other of a genocidal entity. But how is that really useful other than as propaganda?

    FWIW, hundreds of thousands of jews have been forced to leave various islamic countries.

    FWIW, 8,000 jews from 21 settlements in Gaza were forced to leave, thus ethnically cleansing Gaza.

    FWIW, some of the genocidal statements coming from inside Israel include a desire for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza – this time of arabs.

  36. I’d argue the main reason people kicked the Morrison government out was that he couldn’t help but talk down to the public. Not to mention the numerous occasions where he’d straight up gaslight us

    I don’t think there was any particular policy that did it. Possibly climate in more urban seats where they lost to the teals and Greens. And there was a bit of a “it’s time” factor. But mostly I think people just thought he was a dickhead

    Saying the Higgins saga is what caused the change in government is quite an alternative history I think….

  37. ‘MadHouse says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:28 pm

    I’d like to share a friend’s story.

    When he was living with his ex and two kids she decided to call the cops and accused him of DV. When the police turned up he was placed under arrest whilst professing his innocence. He has no criminal record for violent crime, there was no precedent.

    He was placed, handcuffed, in to the back of the paddy wagon, in full view of the neighbours, whilst a female copper spoke to his ex. She accused him of strangling her, but her neck was remarkably free of red marks or bruising. The copper asked again what had happened and said if that were the case then there would be evidence of it . His ex was reminded about the repercussions of making false police statements and decided to drop the accusation.

    My friend was released.

    This was but one story from their toxic relationship. My friend was suicidal at one point.’
    ————————–
    I have a relation whom the police only finally began to believe when his security camera filmed his ex trying to set fire to his house while he and the children were inside the house.

    In the interim it was one long engagement with the forces of the law.

    So, false accusations occur.

    But, far more often, the accusations are not false. They are real.

    That is why we have police and the courts.

    It is also why we should have a comprehensive system ensuring refuge: housing, moral support, funding. It is also why we need a more robust AVO system than we do currently.

  38. Boerwar says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:30 pm
    ‘Lordbain says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:23 pm

    While I disagree with alot of Irenes views, for those who seem focused on the “israeli property developers in gaza” stuff up, you seem to be ignoring the actual comments made about longterm/permanent occupation of Gaza by Israel from members of the Israeli government and military, including within the last 24 hours which had the Minister of Defence attempt to downplay leaked plans for long term military occupation.’
    ——————–
    When both sides are focused on genocide then anything goes.

    Going to isolated particulars nearly always involving supporting one side or the other of a genocidal entity. But how is that really useful other than as propaganda?

    FWIW, hundreds of thousands of jews have been forced to leave various islamic countries.

    FWIW, 8,000 jews from 21 settlements in Gaza were forced to leave, thus ethnically cleansing Gaza.

    FWIW, some of the genocidal statements coming from inside Israel include a desire for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza – this time of arabs.

    ————————

    Over 700,000 Palestinians were forced out of their homes in 1948 when the Zionist State of Israel was proclaimed. And supported by the USA.

    The year before the partition plan was approved by the UN General Assembly.

    Who are the ethnic cleaners in the Middle East since WWII? Seems more than 1 million Palestinians, if there are any alive, will be forced out. To help Israel.

  39. According to bludger track, the Morrison LNP government were already on the nose months before Covid hit in early 2020. Then, on the back of JobKeeper and a general ‘rally around the flag’ mood the government recovered again, peaking around September 2020 and the falling away in a near linear fashion between November 2020 and February 2022, when it hit rock bottom of around 45-55 on the 2PP measure.

    The Higgins scandal broke in February 2021 & the government was already behind on the 2PP by that stage. Its decline did not seem to accelerate much over that controversy, but that issue probably did form part of the tapestry of national discontent. However, it simply did not impact on bludger track in the same way as the Labor-Greens ETS deal did in January 2011 – that did shift bludger track – effectively overnight and for the rest of the life of that parliament.

    … interestingly the actual 2PP result at the 2022 election appears to have been very close to where bludger track had it in February 2021 (when Higgins hit). So there is that.


  40. FUBARsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 10:59 am
    Ven says:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 8:17 pm
    When war happens innocent people get killed, whether we like it or not. Unfortunately that is the nature.
    There are no battlefields (as shown in movies), where armies fight with other and when one side wins that is the end of it.

    There are 2 wars being waged now and civilians are killed in both wars

    There are currently 32 wars active in the world.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war

    Unfortunately the world population doesn’t know about other 30 wars because
    1. maybe they are not related to US National Security.
    2. They may not impact Europe and America.
    3. They impact the only the population where they are fought.

  41. Irene

    When both sides have genocidal vision statements then there can be no moral support for either side.

    Both sides have acted consistent with their genocidal vision statements.

    There is no isolating the behaviours of either from that vision statement.

    Attempts so to do inevitably end up supporting a genocidal regime.

    IMO, your first step is for you to acknowledge publicly that both sides have made (repeated) genocidal vision statements.

  42. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:04 pm
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 12:58 pm
    Most agree that Albo only got elected on the mistaken belief that Scott Morrison and the Liberal Government did the wrong thing by rape victim Brittany Higgins.

    Absolute crap. But how Trumpy of you. Wheedling an opinion adverse to the PM by stating, without proof, ‘most agree’. Yeah nah.
    ——————–
    Albo said just after the election that his election was more about voters rejecting Morrison.

    Morrison had many problems and one of them was the liberals had a women problem and had mistreated Brittany Higgins.
    ===================================================

    The LNP problem with women was not just restricted to Brittany too. Remove Brittany they still had a big problem in that area. Even just where LNP female staffers are concerned you could name a handful of others. That had genuine and worrying complaints or treatment that pointed to a culture of misogyny in the LNP in general. Certainly one that tried to ignore it and did little or nothing to fix it.

  43. ‘Ven says:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:40 pm


    FUBARsays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 10:59 am
    Ven says:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 8:17 pm
    When war happens innocent people get killed, whether we like it or not. Unfortunately that is the nature.
    There are no battlefields (as shown in movies), where armies fight with other and when one side wins that is the end of it.

    There are 2 wars being waged now and civilians are killed in both wars

    There are currently 32 wars active in the world.
    …’
    —————
    You can make that 33. The Indian Government has clamped down on travel into the frontier territories in the north east in order to hide its military suppressing people of various rebel elements.

  44. My late husband’s father set fire to his house and succeeded to burn it down in order to ‘get back’ at his wife and their children (inadvertent victims) and to get the insurance so he could set up house with his mistress. The insurance company didn’t pay up and the family ended up living in a circus tent. The father eventually got his wish and a divorce. Though not the salubrious beginning to his second marriage that he had planned for.

    These things can cut both ways.

  45. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:


    Before the Higgins saga broke ScoMo was already on the nose over half a dozen different issues, ranging from his lack of preparedness and response to the Black Summer Bushfires through – past the breaking of Higgins’ allegations and Channel 10’s piece – to his failure to order the Pfizer in time to mitigate the worst of the Gladys delta outbreak in late 2021.

    Morrison and the LNP lost because they were awful and long in the tooth and out of relevant ideas.

    Results of the Eden-Monaro By Election, held 4/7/2020, right in the heart of bushfire country, during the pandemic, held due to the Labor Member resigning due to ill health.
    2CP: ALP 50.39; swing against of 2.77%; Liberal 49.61, swing of 1.32%
    Then there was the Constance/Barilaro ‘candidacies’, which didn’t help, yet the Morrison Government went 735 votes short of being the first Government to win a seat off an Opposition in 100 years.
    plus 14 candidates, yet Liberal National combined PV was 44.7%.
    https://results.aec.gov.au/25820/Website/HouseDivisionPage-25820-117.htm
    Forward to 22/5/2022, the Liberal Candidate only got 33.02%PV.
    https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm
    What happened?
    It wasn’t bushfires, and it wasn’t Gladys and the Pandemic.
    That leaves Brittany Higgins and the perception of the Liberal Party having done wrong by not only not supporting a Rape Victim, but actively covering it up.
    The chickens have come home to roost for Mr. Albo, i’m afraid.

  46. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:58 pm
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:


    Before the Higgins saga broke ScoMo was already on the nose over half a dozen different issues, ranging from his lack of preparedness and response to the Black Summer Bushfires through – past the breaking of Higgins’ allegations and Channel 10’s piece – to his failure to order the Pfizer in time to mitigate the worst of the Gladys delta outbreak in late 2021.

    Morrison and the LNP lost because they were awful and long in the tooth and out of relevant ideas.

    Results of the Eden-Monaro By Election, held 4/7/2020, right in the heart of bushfire country, during the pandemic, held due to the Labor Member resigning due to ill health.
    2CP: ALP 50.39; swing against of 2.77%; Liberal 49.61, swing of 1.32%
    Then there was the Constance/Barilaro ‘candidacies’, which didn’t help, yet the Morrison Government went 735 votes short of being the first Government to win a seat off an Opposition in 100 years.
    plus 14 candidates, yet Liberal National combined PV was 44.7%.
    https://results.aec.gov.au/25820/Website/HouseDivisionPage-25820-117.htm
    Forward to 22/5/2022, the Liberal Candidate only got 33.02%PV.
    https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm
    What happened?
    It wasn’t bushfires, and it wasn’t Gladys and the Pandemic.
    That leaves Brittany Higgins and the perception of the Liberal Party having done wrong by not only not supporting a Rape Victim, but actively covering it up.
    The chickens have come home to roost for Mr. Albo, i’m afraid.
    ==================================================

    You are seriously delusional. If you believe DV is an issue that will make people vote for the LNP though.

    The party that is still actively pursuing and harassing one of their own. Who had the audacity to claim to be a rape victim. With further and ongoing threats of legal defamation action. Is hardly likely to do well if DV is to become an important election issue.

  47. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 26, 2024 at 1:04 pm
    Bystander,
    I have had to sit here today and see men complain about how badly done by THEY are when it comes to domestic violence. Look, I get it, but when one woman every 4 days is being murdered by her partner, and in comparison men, at the rate of 1/16 are experiencing violence and not necessarily murder at the hands of their female partners, please excuse me if I don’t express the requisite amount of sympathy for those men and a quantum more sympathy for women. I simply provided some statistics before we get the mistaken impression that men are suffering anywhere near what women are. Also, I appreciate your sympathy but I don’t need it, it sounds a tad condescending. I’m not arguing for myself, I’m arguing on behalf of all the women who didn’t escape with their lives.

    C@t
    Your claim that 4 women are being killed every 4 days by their partners is demonstrably incorrect but the myth will unfortunately endure . It refers only to the situation from the beginning of the year up to now and includes five women who were killed in the Bondi stabbings by a sick delusional man. The true yearly figure by my calculation is likely to be about 70 for women (which is still appalling) and about 25 for men.

    No-one is asking you to be sympathetic for the men. That’s your choice. But it is important that it be at least acknowledged that domestic violence is a two way street and that needs to be part of the solution. Men’s lives matter too.

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