RedBridge Group: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Labor maintains its lead in the latest RedBridge poll, while YouGov finds Peter Dutton with a solid lead as preferred prime minister in his home state of Queensland.

The latest federal poll from RedBridge Group has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, as compared with 51.2-48.8 at the last such poll in early February. The primary votes are Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (not specified previously). The full release offers detailed demographic breakdowns and much else besides. Interestingly, both Labor and Coalition voters who report being in financial stress also report being less firm in their voting intention. Questions on immigration include a finding that 72% believe the current rate is making housing less affordable for young people, with only 16% disagreeing, and similar results for the proposition that “Australian cities are too crowded”. The poll was conducted April 12 to 21 from a sample of 1529.

The Courier-Mail also published a finding on Saturday from the YouGov Queensland poll that a preferred prime minister question showed Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 45-37, comparing favourably with the 41-41 result from the January-to-March Newspoll breakdown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 comments on “RedBridge Group: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 34
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  1. From the previous thread.

    VCT Et3e @ #1464 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 12:16 pm

    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1784767117033963559?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, the challenge is to watch the vid and not be reminded of the former PM+ to 2022 …

    You mean the one that didnt turn up?

    He was there, he probably didn’t need to reference scheduling matters, and he wouldn’t have done the booking himself (clearly).

    But the content of the speech and Labor’s policies along with their committed funding speaks much more loudly than the previous decade’s forced silence and inaction.

  2. It’s interesting how the far right and the far left on this site have turned an incredibly serious issue into just another bash at Albanese and Gallagher. Like every other real issue this country faces, for them the value is only how to destroy the Labor Government.

    The far right don’t really give a shit about the issue but welcome the opportunity to bash the government while hiding their own putrid policies and the far left want the issue to stay out there as long as possible so they can pretend they can actually do something about it and get votes that way.

  3. So.

    Prime Minister Albanese was willing to talk to the protestors.
    He has announced an emergency Cabinet meeting.
    He has shown a strong acceptance of the importance and urgency of the issue.
    He did not remind protestors that they were lucky they were not being shot.

    Good on Prime Minister Albanese.

  4. She better be careful, the forces of the patriarchy that she so despises have already glommed onto her for their own benefit. I’d call that a form of abuse as well.

  5. On the day that Defence Minister Marles visited Urkraine and announced a $100 million military support package for Ukraine, The Guardian led with an article reporting that Hanson-Young may have changed her mind about something to do with a Royal Commission into the Murdoch MSM.

    Pissweak reporting, IMO and about what you would expect from the Murdoch MSM.

  6. TPOFsays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:00 pm
    It’s interesting how the far right and the far left on this site have turned an incredibly serious issue into just another bash at Albanese and Gallagher. Like every other real issue this country faces, for them the value is only how to destroy the Labor Government.
    ————-
    Gallagher’s biggest problem is she’s too much about the c-suite and Albo has a direct personality but that’s from his background so he’s never pretended to be warm and cuddly.

  7. TPOF says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    I’m just trying to channel the outrage level if Abbott, Morrison or Dutton had said/done anything like Albotross and been called a liar by the organiser. I think comparisons to the Boxing Day Tsunami shockwave is adequate.

  8. Prime Minister Albanese was willing to talk to the protestors.
    He has announced an emergency Cabinet meeting.
    He has shown a strong acceptance of the importance and urgency of the issue.

    I look forward to the Albanese Government increasing further their general, systematic and targeted support for women.

    I also expect Dutton to further feed the men as victims meme.

  9. Well done Prime Minister Albanese you fronted a large group of protestors among whom there were some so heavily politicized that they were not prepared to hear from the Prime Minister and were prepared to try and shout him down.

  10. Ten years of Coalition neglect and misogyny have undoubtedly featured heavily in the national failure to deal with domestic violence.
    As usual, it will be the Albanese Government that has to pick up the pieces and fix a terrible national mess.
    Perhaps is Morrison was not so interested in harvesting FUD he might have suffered less personal anxiety and inflicted less anxiety on voters?

  11. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:15 pm
    Ten years of Coalition neglect and misogyny have undoubtedly featured heavily in the national failure to deal with domestic violence.
    As usual, it will be the Albanese Government that has to pick up the pieces and fix a terrible national mess.
    Perhaps is Morrison was not so interested in harvesting FUD he might have suffered less personal anxiety and inflicted less anxiety on voters?
    ————-
    Most of the issues are state government and labor’s in power in most states but you will tell us they have been spending billions. 😉

  12. Mostly Interested @ #1 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 12:58 pm

    From the previous thread.

    VCT Et3e @ #1464 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 12:16 pm

    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1784767117033963559?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, the challenge is to watch the vid and not be reminded of the former PM+ to 2022 …

    You mean the one that didnt turn up?

    He was there, he probably didn’t need to reference scheduling matters, and he wouldn’t have done the booking himself (clearly).

    But the content of the speech and Labor’s policies along with their committed funding speaks much more loudly than the previous decade’s forced silence and inaction.

    Not to mention the last lot’s intimidation of women on their own side of politics. Rachelle Miller, Christine Holgate, Julia Banks, and the other female Liberal staffers who spoke out during the Coalition’s time in government. There is no comparison between the two governments. Except in the way of chalk and cheese.

  13. Preferred P.M. may not mean much, but you wouldn’t want it to keep up that trajectory.
    Resignation for heath reasons?
    He’s never looked healthy, but noticeable weight loss lately?

  14. Albo might have been in some trouble if Dutton’s response to Bondi had been harder hitting on law & order and mental health but Dutton’s response wasn’t bad but might have been a bit muted.

  15. FUBAR says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:11 pm
    TPOF says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    I’m just trying to channel the outrage level if Abbott, Morrison or Dutton had said/done anything like Albotross and been called a liar by the organiser. I think comparisons to the Boxing Day Tsunami shockwave is adequate

    ________________________________________

    When it comes to treating women’s issues like shit Abbott and Morrison have form. Don’t know about Dutton; he seems more focussed on indigenous crime and foreigner crime in general.

    Morrison was ridiculously condescending to the women’s march. And he didn’t speak to them.

    As Boerwar indicated Albanese has and is walking the talk. The others talk platitudes or make a big show of wringing their hands. As for the right-wingers on this site – it only matters to them if they can bash Albanese and all the pretence of “only doing it because your mob would” is a cover-up for the fact that your lot do it.

  16. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:26 pm
    Albo might have been in some trouble if Dutton’s response to Bondi had been harder hitting on law & order and mental health but Dutton’s response wasn’t bad but might have been a bit muted.

    ______________________________________

    It took a long while for Dutton to get over the fact that it wasn’t a Muslim crazy targeting Jews.

  17. Has anyone got a source verifying the above tweet? Because so far every other source seems to be supporting that Albo fucked up (it happens)

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:07 pm
    She better be careful, the forces of the patriarchy that she so despises have already glommed onto her for their own benefit. I’d call that a form of abuse as well.

    _________________________________________________

    I don’t know much about Ms Williams other than that she is a “survivor-advocate”, which means she is likely a survivor as well, and that she is in her early 20s. That latter suggests she might be politically inexperienced because she has now completely diverted the critical issue of domestic and sexually motivated violence against women into a question of whether Albanese lied or not – which will do fuck-all for the women and children who are risk.

  19. We must urgently address AVO & bail failures & data gaps. Then, combat online violence, toxic influencers, gambling, & financial stress. Long-term, we need to prioritise education, prevention, elevate respect for women, & provoke men and boys to action. Enough is enough. pic.twitter.com/HiTocmk4jw— Zoe Daniel MP (she/her) (@zdaniel) April 29, 2024

    Sounds good to me.

  20. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    I hope the Albo defenders will not target Ms Williams now…

    ______________________________________________

    Why did you post that?

  21. Lordbain @ #NaN Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 1:31 pm

    Has anyone got a source verifying the above tweet? Because so far every other source seems to be supporting that Albo fucked up (it happens)

    Apparently there is an unedited live video of the whole thing that the organisers said they would make public and are yet to do so. Once I get it, I’ll post it here.

    Here is that tweet I posted an image to: https://twitter.com/PhoenixButerfli/status/1784753253152129313

  22. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:45 pm
    We must urgently address AVO & bail failures & data gaps. Then, combat online violence, toxic influencers, gambling, & financial stress. Long-term, we need to prioritise education, prevention, elevate respect for women, & provoke men and boys to action. Enough is enough. pic.twitter.com/HiTocmk4jw— Zoe Daniel MP (she/her) (@zdaniel) April 29, 2024
    Sounds good to me.

    ___________________________________

    Sounds good to me too. “Sound” being the operative word. These are hellishly difficult things to develop real programs for and deliver.

    This is a start with some practical ideas about how to do it. But even these ideas will take a lot of work and a lot of training of the right people to put into operation.

    Edited to post the link

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/26/we-wont-stop-violence-against-women-with-conversations-about-respect-this-is-not-working-we-need-to-get-real-ntwnfb

  23. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:16 pm
    The polling over the next few months could be decisive re a potential leadership challenge to Albo.
    ====================================================

    You do know you are on thread which quotes 52:48 to the ALP. So pretty much the same as the election. Yet you want to talk about a leadership challenge. At least when you were watching golf sponsored by dirty Saudi oil money. We did get some golf commentary instead of propaganda i guess. Even if the hypocrisy in doing so was still through the roof.

  24. FUBAR says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:46 pm
    If anyone else described a woman as a confused woman there’d be hell to pay – but them’s the rules.

    ____________________________________________

    Politically opportunistic whataboutery from you. As usual.

  25. Looks like Humza Yousaf is set to admit defeat tomorrow and resign as Scottish First Minister. The Times is running a story to this affect. I can’t seem to find any other source to back this up yet (other than twitter which is full of racists celebrating his demise).

  26. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    I hope the Albo defenders will not target Ms Williams now…
    _____________________
    Too late.
    C@t has already got stuck into her.

  27. MI @ 1.47

    I had a look at the twitter links you posted. I came across this – which completely and neatly encapsulates the problem we have today with with Rex and FUBAR and others engaging in their favourite pastime (and it’s not improving this country):

    “Meanwhile, we are completely distracted from the issue at hand. Labor are our elected representatives. Let’s hold the to task now. Too many women are dying, being hurt, and living in fear.”

  28. Taylormade @ #33 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 1:56 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    I hope the Albo defenders will not target Ms Williams now…
    _____________________
    Too late.
    C@t has already got stuck into her.

    If you call that ‘getting stuck into her’ then you are not a true Liberal. They really know how to get stuck into women!

  29. I see the place is in damage control right now. Even have to wheel out the worst partisan poster on here.

    Times like this, I miss Nath. I know he needled people and crossed lines but he was good at putting partisans in their places.

    (This is not a commentary on the validity his banning, which I don’t know anything about but I’m sure was justified, as I know William is fair with the hammer and, not to mention, it’s his site.)

  30. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:59 pm
    I see the place is in damage control right now. Even have to wheel out the worst partisan poster on here.

    _______________________________________________

    Who’s that Wat?

  31. Moving aside the “did he or didnt he” (and noting that until the tweet is in any way verified, im trusting the Guardians reporting on this), I look forward to seeing what occurs with the meeting of states and territories, noting that Ms Rishworth and others in the government have already said they are sticking with the national domestic violence plan agreed by national cabinet in 2022; I agree policy takes time to respond and generate results, but I do also agree with Rex that there seems to be some quick wins on this.

  32. TPOF @ #39 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 2:01 pm

    Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 1:59 pm
    I see the place is in damage control right now. Even have to wheel out the worst partisan poster on here.

    _______________________________________________

    Who’s that Wat?

    It’s probably me, but he’s too, um, polite to say it.

  33. It’s not you, C@t.

    If you must know, it’s you, TPOF. Every post I see of yours seems to just be pure vitriol.

  34. frednk says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:05 pm
    You have to ask what is Sarah Williams about?

    _________________________________________________

    No. It’s a distraction from the issue. From what it’s worth I think she is genuine for where she is coming from but that’s not the issue. The issue is what the people were marching and demonstrating about. And it should remain the issue.

  35. “No. It’s a distraction from the issue. From what it’s worth I think she is genuine for where she is coming from but that’s not the issue. The issue is what the people were marching and demonstrating about. And it should remain the issue.”

    This.

    100% with you on this, TPOF.

  36. I don’t think the site is in ‘damage control’? Rather, it looks to me like the usual suspects can smell the blood of the PM and they’re going for it, hammer and tongs, and anyone who dare defend him by bringing countervailing evidence to the table is being a ‘partisan’. I’m just trying to give the guy an even break. And I’m sorry, but if you read that Mastodon post, the organiser of the rallies DOES sound confused, and I didn’t know she was such a protected species that that couldn’t be pointed out!

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