The latest federal poll from RedBridge Group has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, as compared with 51.2-48.8 at the last such poll in early February. The primary votes are Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (not specified previously). The full release offers detailed demographic breakdowns and much else besides. Interestingly, both Labor and Coalition voters who report being in financial stress also report being less firm in their voting intention. Questions on immigration include a finding that 72% believe the current rate is making housing less affordable for young people, with only 16% disagreeing, and similar results for the proposition that “Australian cities are too crowded”. The poll was conducted April 12 to 21 from a sample of 1529.
The Courier-Mail also published a finding on Saturday from the YouGov Queensland poll that a preferred prime minister question showed Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 45-37, comparing favourably with the 41-41 result from the January-to-March Newspoll breakdown.
@HoldenHillbilly at 7:11pm
If those turn out to be the results of the UK election then it would be something not seen since the wipeout of the Progressive Conservative party of Canada in 1993.
Although if that does turn out to be the case, I worry for what follows. That leaves a large vacuum for a movement under Farage to sweep in the following election.
‘Confessions says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:05 pm
Boerwar @ #1529 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 6:40 pm
Something must be working.
The DV murder rate is half what it was forty years ago.
But still at unacceptably high levels.
Rather than casting our minds back to the past in order to whitewash what is currently happening, how about focusing on what is actually happening today?’
———————–
Of course it is unacceptable. So is the murder rate of men, which is also half what it was in 1980.
We are being told on a daily basis that nothing is working. This is clearly wrong. IMO, this moral panic mongering is clouding the public policy discussion.
Something MUST be working to bring the long term trend to half of what it was 40 years ago.
What can we learn from that?
Australia getting nuclear weapons would shortly thereafter be followed by South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam working at getting such weapons.
It would also form the perfect ‘reason’ for China placing nuclear weapons in friendly local countries in order to ‘protect’ them.
What could possibly go wrong?
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:27 pm
WTF?
What is absolutely disgusting is the way that Dutton is seeking to catastrophize everything in order to generate FUD with a view to assuaging his personal power lust.
In order words, Dutton’s MO is to deliberately and systematically seek to increase people’s anxieties.
Morrison (who was not averse to raising the national anxiety level) should write to Dutton begging him to desist for the good of the mental health of all Australians.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Have a word to the climate catastrophists while you’re about it.
‘FUBAR says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:42 pm
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Have a word to the climate catastrophists while you’re about it.’
——————————–
1. False analogy.
2. What is absolutely disgusting is the way that Dutton is seeking to catastrophize everything in order to generate FUD with a view to assuaging his personal power lust.
In order words, Dutton’s MO is to deliberately and systematically seek to increase people’s anxieties.
Ven @ #1543 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 7:17 pm
God, I sincerely and honestly hope so.
Would you really have trusted Howard with a nuclear trigger? Abbott? Morrison? Dutton?
I would not trust any of the bastards. Including Albo. Who would want “cranky pants” Albo in charge of a nuclear trigger?
The outcome here is not all that predictable, IMO:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/02/faruqi-v-hanson-one-nation-leaders-barrister-says-tweet-not-nice-but-not-racist-as-court-hears-closing-arguments
irsdarke says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:30 pm
@HoldenHillbilly at 7:11pm
If those turn out to be the results of the UK election then it would be something not seen since the wipeout of the Progressive Conservative party of Canada in 1993.
Although if that does turn out to be the case, I worry for what follows. That leaves a large vacuum for a movement under Farage to sweep in the following election.
___________
Unopposed power is rarely ideal.
The ‘music’ is audible at our place. I hope that the ANU authorities leave well enough alone and that the opposing groups continue to show respect for each other:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/02/australia-universities-pro-palestine-protests
‘Griff says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:49 pm
irsdarke says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:30 pm
@HoldenHillbilly at 7:11pm
If those turn out to be the results of the UK election then it would be something not seen since the wipeout of the Progressive Conservative party of Canada in 1993.
Although if that does turn out to be the case, I worry for what follows. That leaves a large vacuum for a movement under Farage to sweep in the following election.
___________
Unopposed power is rarely ideal.’
===================
The devil makes work for idle hands…. several hundred Labor MPs with nothing to do but be backbenchers for five years…
Yet another sign. Cross fingers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/02/middle-east-crisis-israel-gaza-hamas-war-lebanon?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66335f518f08a1a2f963988f#block-66335f518f08a1a2f963988f
Ha, ha, “unopposed power is rarely ideal.” May as well vote Tory then, you know, to protect democracy. OMFG!
It seems to me that Senators Faruqi and Hanson share a propensity for offensive, attention-seeking behaviour. They probably deserve each other.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:44 pm
‘FUBAR says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:42 pm
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Have a word to the climate catastrophists while you’re about it.’
——————————–
1. False analogy.
2. What is absolutely disgusting is the way that Dutton is seeking to catastrophize everything in order to generate FUD with a view to assuaging his personal power lust.
In order words, Dutton’s MO is to deliberately and systematically seek to increase people’s anxieties.
___________
This is not new. Howard started the latest round. “Be alert but not alarmed”. A cool $15 million. I still have the fridge magnet somewhere.
But before my time as a voter Labor was into a bit of xenophobia as well. It is rare for a politician’s hands to be absolutely clean on this.
‘Pedant says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:57 pm
It seems to me that Senators Faruqi and Hanson share a propensity for offensive, attention-seeking behaviour. They probably deserve each other.’
——————-
Putting personal feelings aside, I suspect we may be about to get a significant judgement about what constitutes ‘racism’ in Australia’s public discourse.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:53 pm
‘Griff says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:49 pm
irsdarke says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:30 pm
@HoldenHillbilly at 7:11pm
If those turn out to be the results of the UK election then it would be something not seen since the wipeout of the Progressive Conservative party of Canada in 1993.
Although if that does turn out to be the case, I worry for what follows. That leaves a large vacuum for a movement under Farage to sweep in the following election.
___________
Unopposed power is rarely ideal.’
===================
The devil makes work for idle hands…. several hundred Labor MPs with nothing to do but be backbenchers for five years…
_______________
If we don’t get a modern version of Yes, Minister I would be very sad.
‘Pedant says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:57 pm
It seems to me that Senators Faruqi and Hanson share a propensity for offensive, attention-seeking behaviour. They probably deserve each other.’
——————-
Putting personal feelings aside, I suspect we may be about to get a judgement about what constitutes ‘racism’ in Australia’s public
The difference in polling at the moment from the results of the 2019 UK election are so wild that the seat calculators are coming up with ludicrous results. Like this one from Electoral Calculus.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
So far it’s showing the predicted votes and seats for Great Britain as:
Labour: 43.4% for 472 seats
Conservative: 22.9% for 85 seats
Lib Dem: 9.6% for 50 seats
Reform: 12.3% for 0 seats
Green: 6.0% for 2 seats
SNP: 3.1% for 19 seats
Plaid Cymru: 0.6% for 4 seats
Ven
“ Me: I am the only one on PB to publicly advocated to acquire Nuclear weapons to protect Australia with suitable missile launchers. If as Defence review says that Australia will be attacked within 3 years, then no other military hardware can deter the attackers than Nuclear weapons as far as I can see.”
I must agree with Boerwar on this one. Australia getting nuclear weapons would provoke a SE Asian nuclear arms race, with huge risks. The more countries that have nukes, the more risk there is of a WWI style accidental escalation.
That being said, even in this respect, AUKUS is a poor deal. USA has never given away nuke technology, with UK and France developing nuclear bombs separately.
clem attlee says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Ha, ha, “unopposed power is rarely ideal.” May as well vote Tory then, you know, to protect democracy. OMFG!
___________
Knee jerk reaction? I am actually with you part way in that I think Starmer a wet blanket. If he doesn’t have an effective opposition I would be concerned what will happen. It will leave a vacuum that could be filled by a purely populist right winger like Farage. I have had personal experience living under a Labor Council in the UK that had been in power for over two decades; a pseudo “rotten borough”. Not pleasant, with corruption galore.
Bystander @ #1548 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 7:30 pm
I disagree. Boerwar has spent the best part of the last week or so trying to lessen the importance of domestic and family violence and its impact on women today.
”
Player Onesays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:46 pm
Ven @ #1543 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 7:17 pm
I am the only one on PB to publicly advocated to acquire Nuclear weapons to protect Australia with suitable missile launchers.
God, I sincerely and honestly hope so.
Would you really have trusted Howard with a nuclear trigger? Abbott? Morrison? Dutton?
I would not trust any of the bastards. Including Albo. Who would want “cranky pants” Albo in charge of a nuclear trigger?
”
P1
Then tell how can defend itself if it is attacked within 3 years as per Australian Defence review. Either that or Australian Defence review is catastrophizing to get their AUKUS.
No I don’t support Dutton with Nuclear trigger.
Not wrong.
Today in Australia a woman is killed every four days. That isn’t moral panic, that’s reality.
torchbearer
“ As bad as the LNPs NBN?”
About the same. Why are our politicians anti-science? Their idea of growing the economy is digging more stuff out of the dirt or increasing immigration. I suspect its because they are so poorly educated.
Diogenes says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:18 pm
torchbearer
“ As bad as the LNPs NBN?”
About the same. Why are our politicians anti-science? Their idea of growing the economy is digging more stuff out of the dirt or increasing immigration. I suspect it’s because they are so poorly educated.
__________
Barry Jones was alright. But yes, we are truly the Lucky Country.
Griff
True. But if you went around a country of 25 million you’d never choose any of these also-rans to be in charge of the country.
MSNBC:
Police enter encampment at UCLA, California. It is 3:25 am in California.
‘Confessions says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:11 pm
Bystander @ #1548 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 7:30 pm
Confessionssays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 7:05 pm
Boerwar @ #1529 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 6:40 pm
Something must be working.
The DV murder rate is half what it was forty years ago.
But still at unacceptably high levels.
Rather than casting our minds back to the past in order to whitewash what is currently happening, how about focusing on what is actually happening today?
Confessions
I don’t think Boerwar would ever be suggesting that the current rate of domestic violence is in any way acceptable. I think you are being a bit unfair to him there.
I disagree. Boerwar has spent the best part of the last week or so trying to lessen the importance of domestic and family violence and its impact on women today.’
————————————
I do have a difficulty here. Somehow if you don’t immediately fall in with the agreed lines you are tring to lessen the importance of domestic and family violence and its impact on women today.
My last two posts on the topic, from memory:
1. Relate specifically to the horrendous statistics on DV in Indigenous communities. I provided a link to the statistics. They bear repeating. Indigenous women are 33 times more likely to be hospitalized than non-Indigenous women. In a huge proportion of those cases DV is directly implicated. Earlier I had made the observation that I hoped that the a proportionate amount of DV funding goes to Indigenous communities because that were peak DV rates occur.
2. My last post on DV specifically relates to what I consider to be the egregious nature of an article on DV in the AFL. My view, FWIW, is that if the final recommendation is generalized then men who are alleged to have committed DV must leave their current area of employment and find a new one. Not very well thought through, IMO.
3. I have been advocating for years, including directly to ministeral advisors, that ankle bands would be a very useful way of policing AVOs. I have expressed delight that the SA Labor Government has finally adopted this approach.
4. I will repeat an observation that is really very important even if repeating it invites unfair criticism about my views. The DV murder rate is HALF of what it was in 1980. This completely rebuts the idea being put about in certain quarters that NOTHING is working. Clearly, SOMETHING is working. Something is doing good. Something is improving outcomes. But what is it?
5. I note that the MSM and a few Bludger posters slagged Prime Minister Albanese and the National Cabinet for a billion dollar outcome.
6. I note that there are very, very few references to the fact that the jurisdictions have agreed to work up additional options for consideration at another national cabinet in a couple of months time. I am aware of the directions of some of this work and am providing input to same.
7. Moral panic is no substitute for good public policy, program and regulatory work.
Ven
Where is it going to end up?
‘Confessions says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:14 pm
We are being told on a daily basis that nothing is working. This is clearly wrong. IMO, this moral panic mongering that is clouding the public policy discussion.
Not wrong.
Today in Australia a woman is killed every four days. That isn’t moral panic, that’s reality.’
——————–
If the rate was the same as it was in 1980, a woman would be being killed every two days. That’s reality.
”
Diogenessays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Ven
Where is it going to end up?
”
I don’t know. But it is resonating with young people across USA and threatening Biden re-election.
Naive question here. Where do firearms figure in the statistics regarding DV deaths? I don’t know, but it is the immediate question that comes to mind. If there is a difference between 1980 and current statistics, then one can start looking into interventions that restrict firearms further e.g. can we revoke licence to possess firearms in situations where a restraining order is made?
In London, it’s back to the 1940’s!
Graham Stewart @Critic_GStewart
Anti-revisionism on its way to Trafalgar Square today. Genuine question: when was the last time demonstrators proudly carried portraits of Stalin through London?
https://x.com/Psychgirl211/status/1785969527592816669
Oops wrong link!
https://x.com/Critic_GStewart/status/1785674041879105956
Socrates says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:04 pm
WWI wasn’t an accidental escalation. The Boxheads wanted war.
‘Griff says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:37 pm
Naive question here. Where do firearms figure in the statistics regarding DV deaths? I don’t know, but it is the immediate question that comes to mind. If there is a difference between 1980 and current statistics, then one can start looking into interventions that restrict firearms further e.g. can we revoke licence to possess firearms in situations where a restraining order is made?’
—————————–
The decline started before the firearms legislation came into force in 1996. I am not sure if that legislation accelerated the trend.
Boerwar posted
I’m with you on that one Boerwar. Panic of any kind is the least likely response to produce the desired outcome.
‘Rikali says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:39 pm
Oops wrong link!
https://x.com/Critic_GStewart/status/1785674041879105956‘
———————-
Yes, yes, but how many legs? Two or four?
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:42 pm
‘Griff says:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:37 pm
Naive question here. Where do firearms figure in the statistics regarding DV deaths? I don’t know, but it is the immediate question that comes to mind. If there is a difference between 1980 and current statistics, then one can start looking into interventions that restrict firearms further e.g. can we revoke licence to possess firearms in situations where a restraining order is made?’
—————————–
The decline started before the firearms legislation came into force in 1996. I am not sure if that legislation accelerated the trend.
______________
Thanks. An interrupted time series analysis may help out.
Oh no, not the scary communists
7 airports in Indonesia closed due to Volcano: https://twitter.com/i/status/1785956146966155730
Rikalisays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:39 pm
Oops wrong link!
https://x.com/Critic_GStewart/status/1785674041879105956
=============================================
Are they Putin supporters?. Most seemed to have old USSR symbols. I assume they are Tankies and not Z-fascists. Though the Putin horseshoe has made them adjacent fellow travellers.
It looks like they have conscripted the Palestinian cause for their own use though. Which looks more to me a pro-USSR reforming agenda.
Ven @ #1574 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 8:11 pm
I can tell you it is not by spending $368 billion on nuclear submarines that won’t be delivered for decades … if ever …
We cannot become a nuclear power in 3 years. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
But you’re ok with “cranky pants” Albo?
Fubar
No more than everyone else (read Touchman, Guns of August).
Ven, Diogenes
There is now a large (thousands) additional UCLA student crowd gathered around the original Palestinian demonstration group. This is getting out of control.
Video here.
https://twitter.com/BeckettUnite/status/1785974484937183328
Xenophobia hurting India and China economic growth, says Biden
US President Joe Biden railed against India, China, Japan and Russia and called them “xenophobic” because they didn’t “accept immigrants”. The American president said it was “xenophobia” that was hobbling their growth.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/us-news/story/xenophobia-us-president-joe-biden-india-china-japan-russia-economic-woes-immigrants-donald-trump-anti-immigrant-2534344-2024-05-02
“US President Joe Biden has called India, China, Japan and Russia “xenophobic” and said it was “xenophobia” that was hurting the economic growth of these countries. Biden made remarks suggesting countries, including India, didn’t accept migrants.
“One of the reasons why our economy’s growing is because of you and many others. Why? Because we welcome immigrants,” Biden was quoted as saying at a fundraising event by Reuters.
“Why is China stalling so badly economically, why is Japan having trouble, why is Russia, why is India, because they’re xenophobic. They don’t want immigrants. Immigrants are what makes us strong,” Biden said.
Despite predictions of a global economic slowdown in 2024, India’s economy is projected to grow at a robust 6.8%.
Biden’s remarks came at an event in Washington to raise funds for his 2024 re-election bid. He made the remarks on May 1, which marks the start of Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month.
Immigration has remained a hot and polarising issue in the 2024 US presidential campaign.
People named immigration as the top problem in the US for a third straight month, according to the latest Gallup survey.
“A steady 27% of Americans say the most important problem facing the US is immigration, topping Gallup’s open-ended trend for the third consecutive month, the longest stretch for this particular issue in the past 24 years,” said the Washington DC-based analytics and advisory firm.
No-one seems to be disputing Boerwar’s statistics. If the murder rate has halved shouldn’t we be asking what worked?
My money is on the gun buyback, but is a guess good enough.
Asked google:
The institute reports 232 overall homicide incidents were recorded by Australian state and territory police between July 1 2022 and June 30 2023, which resulted in 247 homicide victims. The Australian homicide rate (0.87 deaths per year per 100,000 population) remains historically low.
”
Player Onesays:
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 8:59 pm
Ven @ #1574 Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 – 8:11 pm
Then tell how can defend itself if it is attacked within 3 years as per Australian Defence review. Either that or Australian Defence review is catastrophizing to get their AUKUS.
I can tell you it is not by spending $368 billion on nuclear submarines that won’t be delivered for decades … if ever …
We cannot become a nuclear power in 3 years. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
No I don’t support Dutton with Nuclear trigger.
But you’re ok with “cranky pants” Albo?
”
Yes.