Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)

Labor fills a Victorian Senate vacancy, while the Liberals choose an ACT Senate candidate and confirm Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in Boothby.

There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:

• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.

• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.

• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.

• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.

On with the show:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.

• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.

• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.

• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,441 comments on “Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)”

Comments Page 26 of 29
1 … 25 26 27 … 29

  3. I assume some Greens will be along to criticize the Queensland Labor Government’s addition to net free zones in the Gulf of Carpentaria which will aid in the conservation of sawfish and Speartooth sharks which are in trouble.

    I suggest:

    1. Too little.
    2. Too late.
    3. Policing requires twice as much as has been allocated to it.
    4. Why isn’t this being extended to: name your favourite YIMBY site.
    5. The Queensland Government did not consult with the traditional owners.

    More probably there will just be the traditional wall of silence about anything positive while the Greens help Dutton along by slagging something else…
    … oh, I know! The Victorian Budget!

    Then there is the other tactic: claim credit for forcing the Labor Government to do this against its will.

  4. Hey BW, nice strawman you got there… it must be nice having a perfect party (god knows the greens piss me of enough times…)

  5. The $400 school bonus is a good outcome though that will be of great value to struggling young families.

  6. I don’t have any problem at all with anti-vaxxers dying young because of their inability to get basic statistics right.

    This is definitely in Darwin Award territory.

    The really nasty part of their stupidity is that it can choke hospital systems with avoidable cases, cause other people lifelong ill effects and outright kill some.

    Is this really a sacred human right?

  7. davidwhsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:35 pm
    Actually base on 1950 life expectancy I should have died 9 years ago.
    =======================================================

    Which suggests to me it is the 2035 life expectancy figures you should be looking at. If you get to see them you will have probably beaten them?.

    Note: Any one of pension age today. Life expectancy is going to be higher than the expected average for their cohort. As the they have made it this far already. Just like your chances of scoring a hundred are much higher if you are on 70 than when you first went out to bat.

  11. From what I remember from something I did at uni, the greatest advance in public health – and therefore life expectancy – occurred when some doctor in London did some tests – well in the 19th century I might add – which demonstrated that water purity (or lack of it) lead to disease and death. Essentially, when public authorities eventually thought it might be an idea to separate out the use of water between drinking the stuff, washing in it and pooing in it life expectancy improved.
    I am not convinced we have got this simple process 100% correct even now……………

  12. What’s needed though is for fossil fuel operators in Australia to be taxed properly and a superprofits tax introduced which would allow for the Fed Govt to lift up those Australians living in poverty.

  13. Tricot

    The Romans were quite good at cloaca and aquaducts, up to a point…
    … they just didn’t circulate the water in the public baths quickly enough.

  14. Dwh, have you got enough to afford to nominate for Longman as Teal independent ?
    You’d get your money back at a minimum I reckon.

  15. Boerwar: I don’t envy the decisions the state government has to make, considering the state of the Budget. However, the cuts are biting, the public service has already been cut so badly that it’s ceasing to function, and the specific cuts in this budget disproportionately hit younger and single people while the government’s spin is that the government is just not interested in them at all. And the debt position isn’t getting any better for all the sacrifice. I just saw an exchange on another social media site where one person said “well, young people get nothing out of this budget” and another replied “that’s incorrect -we get the bill!”.

    If a Labor government has to slash the public service to Newman/Abbott levels, is slashing funding for a bunch of badly-needed services, ditches key commitments impacting younger and single voters (and can’t even pretend in their own rhetoric to give a rats about those voters), it prompts an obvious comeback: why not give the other guys a go?

    The Victorian Liberals are genuinely scary. I do not want them anywhere near the levers of government, and it won’t be me swinging to the Libs. But all of this erases the massive difference there was between the two under Andrews, and makes switching to the Liberals seem less scary and less drastic a step. The Liberals have been conspicuously silent on their own internal drama lately, and some of the higher-ups in the Liberals have clearly been smart enough to agree to just shut up and let the government alienate people on their own.

    I’ve always broadly been pretty pro-Andrews (a couple of specific issues aside), but I’m increasingly worried Allan is setting Labor up to lose – and if that happens, things are going to get pretty scary.

  17. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:46 pm
    I don’t have any problem at all with anti-vaxxers dying young because of their inability to get basic statistics right.

    This is definitely in Darwin Award territory.

    The really nasty part of their stupidity is that it can choke hospital systems with avoidable cases, cause other people lifelong ill effects and outright kill some.

    Is this really a sacred human right?
    ======================================================

    It is the people who have immunity problems. So can’t develop proper immunity from a vaccine or the small percentage of people who can’t be vaccinated due to legitimate medical conditions. Who are the real victims of anti-vaxxer ignorance and stupidity.

  19. [‘Federal government debt is expected to be $152 billion lower in the federal budget, as tax revenue surges.

    The budget, which will be handed down next week by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, will show gross debt reached $904 billion in 2023/24, down from projections of more than $1 trillion at the time of the 2022 federal election.

    The government expects to save about $80 billion in interest costs over the decade to 2032/33.

    Debt as a share of gross domestic product is also expected to peak lower compared with mid-year economic and fiscal outlook forecasts.

    “Debt will peak significantly lower than was projected at the time of the election thanks to our responsible economic management,” he said.

    “These are some of the dividends of our responsible economic management.”

    The treasurer said the government’s third budget was not the time for “scorched-earth austerity”.

    But neither would it be “some kind of free-for-all” of spending.

    Dr Chalmers suggested a second consecutive surplus was in reach.

    Tax revenue is expected to be $25 billion higher over the next four years.’] – INQUEENSLAND

    I think there’ll be some sweeteners in the budget, and it should but probably won’t change the narrative that the Tories are better economic managers.

  20. ‘Rebecca says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:59 pm

    Boerwar: I don’t envy the decisions the state government has to make, considering the state of the Budget. However, the cuts are biting, the public service has already been cut so badly that it’s ceasing to function, and the specific cuts in this budget disproportionately hit younger and single people while the government’s spin is that the government is just not interested in them at all. And the debt position isn’t getting any better for all the sacrifice. I just saw an exchange on another social media site where one person said “well, young people get nothing out of this budget” and another replied “that’s incorrect -we get the bill!”.

    If a Labor government has to slash the public service to Newman/Abbott levels, is slashing funding for a bunch of badly-needed services, ditches key commitments impacting younger and single voters (and can’t even pretend in their own rhetoric to give a rats about those voters), it prompts an obvious comeback: why not give the other guys a go?

    The Victorian Liberals are genuinely scary. I do not want them anywhere near the levers of government, and it won’t be me swinging to the Libs. But all of this erases the massive difference there was between the two under Andrews, and makes switching to the Liberals seem less scary and less drastic a step. The Liberals have been conspicuously silent on their own internal drama lately, and some of the higher-ups in the Liberals have clearly been smart enough to agree to just shut up and let the government alienate people on their own.

    I’ve always broadly been pretty pro-Andrews (a couple of specific issues aside), but I’m increasingly worried Allan is setting Labor up to lose – and if that happens, things are going to get pretty scary.’
    ——————–
    I broadly agree with this analysis, noting that it stops short of the $64 question.

    The unanswered challenge remains: assuming expenditure cuts must be made, where would you make them?

    The major challenge for all governments is generally how you arrange priorities in various queues.

    All the losers in any queue will always ask themselves whether changing their votes might improve their personal lot.

    As noted elsewhere, any fool can spend foolish amounts of money or promise to spend foolish amounts of money.

  21. A young covidiot that is part of my extended family who didn’t believe that anything should be injected into a human. Refused the covid vaccine. Didn’t believe in the science.

    Funny thing happened in the meantime. Diagnosed with MS. What does the treatment involve to stop it progressing?
    ———
    Natalizumab is given through a drip (known as an infusion). It takes about an hour, with another hour for you to be monitored. You need to go to hospital, but you don’t need to stay overnight. You usually have the drug every four weeks.

    ———

    Did this person refuse this intervention? No. Go figure…….

  24. Taylormade

    You are a laugh a minute. 3aw is not good for your health. It’s not called “all whingers” station for nothing.

  26. davidwhsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 1:53 pm
    I do have enough pension to live to 85
    =========================================

    I assume you mean super?. I think the pension will likely kick in when your super runs out. I don’t think even the LNP have suggested you can live for as long as you have the private resources to pay to do so.That would really be taking capitalism to an extreme.

  27. I note that the secondary explosion arising from one of the Israeli airstrikes was huge in East Rafah.
    I assume this means that Israeli intelligence had pinpointed a munitions store.
    I assume that this is why Israel warned Eastern Rafah civilians to shift.
    I assume that this would also give Hamas soldiers time to shift themselves and their hostages out of East Rafah.
    I also assume that the Hamas knew that it had a massive munitions store sitting right under a lot of civilians.
    I assume that is probably a few too many assumptions to hold as anything other than speculation… except for the huge secondary explosion.

  29. Victoriasays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 2:10 pm
    Did this person refuse this intervention? No. Go figure…….
    Okay.
    Refused the CovidVax, still alive, hasn’t got Long Covid either.
    Win/Win.
    Diagnosed MS.
    Bummer, but since there’s no MS vaccine, what now?

  30. The Victorian government will delay construction of the long-awaited Melbourne airport rail by at least four years, postpone key election promises and scrap its lauded paid sick leave scheme for casuals in an effort to bring its growing debt under control.
    The Victorian treasurer, Tim Pallas, said he has been forced to make “sensible and disciplined decisions” to combat the state’s “two big problems” of high inflation and workforce shortages in his 10th budget, handed down on Tuesday.
    This includes putting off the Melbourne airport rail by at least four years and increasing several taxes.
    “We need to be realistic about the project and its timeline,” Pallas said of the rail project in his budget speech to parliament. “[It] is now at least four years delayed.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/victorian-state-budget-2024-airport-train-delayed-and-sick-leave-for-casuals-scrapped-in-bid-to-rein-in-debt

  33. In the early 20th century it was a leading cause of death in children, but even before the Second World War and the introduction of antibiotics, its severity was already declining, perhaps due to better living conditions, the introduction of better control measures, or a decline in the virulence of the bacteria.

    There is no vaccine for scarlet fever.[1] Prevention is by frequent handwashing, not sharing personal items, and staying away from other people when sick.[1]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarlet_fever

    Game, set and match Badthinker, I believe?

  35. I see Annika Smethurst had a whole slew of anti-Labor articles lined up and ready to go for the budget release today.

    Some of the language in The Age’s articles today has been so blatantly biased.

    I loved the one that had the headline “Australia’s most debt burdened state to only get worse”, to then go on and actually (relunctantly) have to mention that there is literally no change to the timeline for the operational surplus (2025-26) and for the debt to still “peak” in 2027 and then start coming down, but that 2027 debt-to-GDP ratio will just be 0.7% higher. And then of course used language like “Tim Pallas will claim that..” so that the reader treats his justifications with suspicion, despite them making perfect sense and being logical & true (to the point where The Age isn’t actually challenging them).

    Since Costello’s Nine took over from Fairfax they have become masters at presenting neutral or even positive Labor related news as a negative. I suppose Annika Smethurst did come up through the ranks at News Corp prior to joining The Age, so we know where she learnt it.

  38. Hi All
    Infrequent poster here, so gonna start with big thanks to BK for Dawn Patrol – the main reason I lurk here.

    My comment is around why people vote the way they do / have the opinions they do.

    Any open review of the last 40 years would clearly show that Neo-liberalism is at the core of most of societies problems.

    Housing is a market failure – the Govt got out of the way of private industry and here we are.

    The under resourcing of societies essentials – health and environment protections (looking at you global warming and fire ants) have got us here today.

    The apparent lack of any real care for the vulnerable in our society (income supplements way below poverty levels) is part of this social Darwinism that is part and parcel of neoliberalism.

    Of course we have a mental health crisis amongst our youth – they see the world they are arriving in and it’s not pretty (unless you chose the right parents at birth!!)

    So why do people hold the opinion that the last 40 years of Governments have been the way to go and why won’t people vote for alternatives?

    This is the question. Why?

    As we see in the rise in Fascism across many democracies, it’s easy to tie your hopes in a strong man who blames the ‘other’. Do people genuinely feel better if they have someone below them to kick?

    Why don’t we see a rise in alternatives? Why is SolarPunk a fringe belief? Why is any form of democratic socialism decried as useless? Why do we stick to the failures of the past?

    Is it just the media? Is it the lack of critical literacy skills? Is it the capture of politicians by the rich? Or a combination of the above?

    So today we have a ‘horror’ Victorian state budget. This ‘horror’ framing brought to you by the mainstream media (looking at you The Age). Is it so bad? It’s still along neoliberal lines. I mean, the Victorian government had greater debts in the past, yet I still enjoy using the train lines this debt provided. Of course my spending priorities would be different to the Vic Govt, so there is improvements that can be made. Of course I would be kicking neoliberalism to the curb and taxing the rich to provide the services society needs.

    Why doesn’t the Federal Labor party stop all new fossil fuel exploration and remove all subsidies for fossil fuels? Then use the economic capacity freed up by these actions to design and build prefab / modular housing in regional and suburban centres to arrest the housing crisis? And raise income supplements beyond poverty levels? And get rid of the absurd waste that is mutual obligations? What is Labour scared of?

    Could it be that our leaders are in fact followers? Our politicians cannot sell their ideas and bring the people with them. They choose to follow what is perceived as popular without trying to bring the populace over to a good idea. Maybe it’s because our politicians are good at being politicians, not leaders or managers?

    Anyway, that’s all a bit ranty. No good answers to any of my questions. All I can do is be the best me I can and try to influence those around me when I hear them parrot idiocy they have heard in the media (apologies to the work colleagues I berated when they suggested nuclear power was a good option for Aus).

    So just remember these words:

    Be excellent to one another, and
    Party on Dudes!!

  39. At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent.

    Recent information indicates that inflation continues to moderate, but is declining more slowly than expected. The CPI grew by 3.6 per cent over the year to the March quarter, down from 4.1 per cent over the year to December. Underlying inflation was higher than headline inflation and declined by less. This was due in large part to services inflation, which remains high and is moderating only gradually.

    Higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply somewhat closer towards balance. But the data indicate continuing excess demand in the economy, coupled with strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs. Conditions in the labour market have eased over the past year, but remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target. Wages growth appears to have peaked but is still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity growth. Meanwhile, inflation is still weighing on people’s real incomes and output growth has been subdued, reflecting weak household consumption growth.

    https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-08.html

  40. Painted Dog Research are running a survey that compares approval of Albo and Dutton. No other questions asked.

    I wonder who commissioned that?

  41. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 2:17 pm
    I note that the secondary explosion arising from one of the Israeli airstrikes was huge in East Rafah.
    ================================================

    So Rafah had no gas or oil supplies at all?. Or just don’t have any now?. I don’t like the chances of Rafah have any electricity now though. As what ever its power station ran on. Probably would explode like a supposed Hamas weapons cache. So for propaganda reasons it would be the first to go.

    Note: If a weapons cache was actually hit. Secondary individual explosion should be obvious in the blast cloud. As the ammunition lifted up in the blast cloud detonates. While if the blast detonated a nearby weapons cache. They don’t go off as one big secondary explosion. They ping off as a number of separate explosions for sometime instead.

  42. Bad thinker

    So you don’t think a drug being administered via an IV every four weeks is non invasive to one’s body? Your avatar sums it up really.

  44. Rafah is probably the last town/city standing in Gaza. If you want to implement aparthied you have to wreck the joint so all the non-Israelies move out.

  45. The airport rail link is not being resolved cos the airport authority don’t want it.

    They want to keep making shitloads of money for their car parking friends.

  47. Victoria

    From some past work the main benefit of the Melbourne Airport rail link is NOT for airport passengers. For them the CBD Skybus works fairly well.

    The main beneficiaries are the hundreds of thousands who live along the route between Sunshine and Tullamarine.

  48. C@tmomma says:
    “Badthinker wants his kids to get Polio, Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox and Shingles, later on in their lives I see.”

    Not just his kids: everybody else’s kids, too.

    See, by way of confirmation, recent spikes in the incidence of whooping cough in anti-vaxxer territories.

  49. Victoria @ #1295 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 2:38 pm

    The airport rail link is not being resolved cos the airport authority don’t want it.

    They want to keep making shitloads of money for their car parking friends.

    Well sure, maybe. But I’ve used the airbus any number of times at all times of the day and night, and it’s never been an issue. And from what I saw in my last trip to Melbs the upgraded ramps get the airbus off the highway faster, which is where the bottle neck used to be.

Comments Page 26 of 29
1 … 25 26 27 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *