As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 8:47 am
Low income renters on rent assistance are not “winners” cos they will get $9 a week more. Rents went up $56 a week on average last year alone and are expected to go up another $46 this year. $102 average increase in rent vs $9 increase in rent assistance is devastating.— Max Chandler-Mather (@MChandlerMather) May 14, 2024
________________
And this is one of the reasons I don’t put The Greens first. Yes low income people are doing it tough. Yes, they need more support. But this is a very deceptive statement. It reminds me of the risks when politicians believe that the ends justify the means.
No surprise who posts it here either 😉
Israel’s return to areas of Gaza it said were clear of Hamas raises doubts about its military strategy
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/13/middleeast/israel-restarts-fighting-north-gaza-military-strategy-mime-intl?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17157253484851&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2024%2F05%2F13%2Fmiddleeast%2Fisrael-restarts-fighting-north-gaza-military-strategy-mime-intl%2Findex.html
”
Netanyahu strategy is to raze Gaza to ground in the name of killing Hamas.
Hey Grif, how is the statement deceptive 🙂
Lordbain says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:02 am
Hey Grif, how is the statement deceptive
___________________
Hmm….if you cannot see that this is a comparison of apple and oranges, then I cannot help you 🙂
The roundup can’t contain everything.
Thought this might be of interest:
“ AUKUS back on track as US congress set to double purchases of Virginia-class submarines”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/aukus-back-on-track-as-us-congress-set-to-double-purchases-of-virginiaclass-submarines/news-story/2cd621ce039f8d80f5559d7c684b36d4
“ “Given the critical need for attack submarines across the globe and the impending decision to certify the sale of three submarines to Australia starting in 2032, the subcommittee mark takes decisive action – as required in Article One of the US Constitution – to add back the second submarine,” Mr Courtney added in a statement.”
“ “This effort demonstrates congress’s iron-clad commitment to fulfilling the AUKUS security partnership and will make it easier for the future president to certify the sale of three Virginia-class submarines beginning in 2032,” Mr Courtney said.”
Appears to have support of the house publicly before going to a vote.
AZ
I’ve thought the same. Why not the shadow treasurer?
Ven says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:07 am
Ven
___________
Nietzsche eat your heart out 🙂
Griff: What Rex posted is the literal difference to someone who receives rent assistance (if they even receive the maximum rate to get all of this increase) – that is, what they actually see in their bank account. It is, objectively, what Labor are likely to be judged by in that cohort of voters.
Not sure why you think it’s “deceptive” for not being accompanied by some desired spin.
Labor is perfectly capable of understanding that it’s all about the maths [bills-rebate] in the context of energy bills, but seems to expect people on welfare to make voting decisions about their economic interests on a completely different basis.
Ten years of deficits incompetent federal labor announced last night.
Another 5 billion blowout on the NDIS.
More lies on immigration numbers.
Energy grant to Gina Rinehart,yes she’s eligible under labor
Rebecca says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:10 am
Griff: What Rex posted is the literal difference to someone who receives rent assistance (if they even receive the maximum rate to get all of this increase) – that is, what they actually see in their bank account. It is, objectively, what Labor are likely to be judged by in that cohort of voters.
Not sure why you think it’s “deceptive” for not being accompanied by some desired spin.
Labor is perfectly capable of understanding that it’s all about the maths in the context of energy bills, but seems to expect people on welfare to make voting decisions about their economic interests on a completely different basis.
___________
No Rebecca, it is not the “literal difference”. Look at the comparison a little more carefully 🙂
See Lordbain? Deceptive.
fred
There is a big difference between AI and quantum computing. Four of the biggest companies in the world are basically AI companies. It’s proven technology and we all use it all the time, even as I’m typing here.
Quantum computers really haven’t done much. I’ve got a student who want to use quantum computing simulation for real time running a hospital. But they are a long way off.
Hey Griff, I am actually quite confused… I dont get where the deception comes in>
His right the rental assistance is an additional 9 dollars
His not wrong that rents have gone up, and will continue to go up at a greater rate then the assistance.
What am i missing?
Pied Piper. says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:12 am
Energy grant to Gina Rinehart,yes she’s eligible under labor
————–
Yet the federal Lib/nats would give her , clive palmer, twiggy forrest a bigger tax cut, into the thousands of dollars
Griff: I’m not sure what distinction you’re trying to make either, to be clear.
Ley lines at a business breakfast this morning:
‘… while Andrew holds a PhD in public policy and has published over 10 books on a range of economic issues, Jim Chalmers’ PhD is in politics. In fact, it was titled “Brawler statesman: Paul Keating and prime ministerial leadership in Australia”.
‘… the fact that we have Andrew Leigh as an assistant minister and Jim Chalmers as the treasurer tells you a lot about the character and the priorities of the Albanese government.’
Sso, Sussan, what ssayeth you to the fact that we have a university dropout as the putative alternative prime minister?
What doess that ssay about the ‘character and priorities’ of the LNP oppossition?
”
Arkysays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:10 am
@Diogenes – Private industry is developing AI at speed and hardly needs government trying to pick winners and put un-needed subsidies into it. I’m sure there will be money for AI research through research and R&D grant rounds,and money for implementation of AI throughout the public service as people find useful ways to implement it, but it’s a weird thing to get hot under the collar about, that the government is not headlining with some huge bucket of public money tipped into something which doesn’t need it at a time individual households have a greater need, and at a time when people in many areas are more worried about AI causing their jobs to be made redundant than they are excited for the possibilities.
”
I also don’t understand Diogenes ‘hot under the collar’ about AI especially when the most realistic outcome of AI in future is people losing jobs. Diogenes may be imagining “Jetsons” scenario. I don’t know.
Getting ‘hot under the collar’ for climate change is perfectly understandable but getting ‘hot under the collar’for AI is wierd and bagging ALP based on that and threatening to vote for a Teal is even more wierd because a Teal never promised any action whatsoever on AI.
BTW, even if you vote for Teal, in the end one has to preference ALP and LNP one over the other.
Oh I get AIE is the future and many things will be disrupted by that. But it is not even a tenth order issue for public and politicians.
Quantum computing is the Fusion of computing – been coming for decades and still not useful.
Pied Piper. says:
“Ten years of deficits incompetent federal labor announced last night.”
Are you getting confused with the nine years of deficits delivered by the incompetent Coalition?
“We will deliver a Budget surplus in our first year, and every year after that!”
— Smokin’ Joe Hockey
For Lordbain and Rebecca. I know it will be shouting into the void but here goes:
The quote is “$102 average increase in rent vs $9 increase in rent assistance is devastating”.
This comparison relies on the assumption that the average rent paid by those that will receive the $9 increase in rent assistance is the same as the average rent paid by all renters. Can you see that it is not true?
It is what is called a ‘false equivalence’ logical fallacy i.e. comparing apples and oranges. I call it deceptive and there is at least some evidence now that it is 😉
The federal Lib/nats version of AI , will be what ever Newsltd tells them
”
Scepticsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 6:15 am
Trump Trial
Blanche asked Cohen if he had called Trump a “boorish cartoon misogynist” and “cheeto-dusted cartoon villain.” Cohen responded to both questions with a version of “sounds like something I would say.”
‘
ROFL.
Did Blanche asked Cohen if he had called Trump “Von shitzinPants”? 🙂
Thanks Griff.
Not sure I agree on the premise that this is oranges and apples; your certainly right that there is probably people out there that that get the benefits of the increased assistance, and local rents have not gone up as much as the average. But at the same time its also a useful demonstration that rental assistance needs to go alot higher if its going to actually start helping the majority of people its targeted at.
But i do appreciate you coming back and explaining your piece
Diogenes,
Did you not see my post @7.24am? What part of, it would be a colossal waste of the government’s and taxpayer’s funds to invest in AI now, for the reasons I outlined, do you not get!?!
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 7:18 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Some fairly sober assessments of the budget. It is not a very visionary document, but is focused on relief for families.
Laura Tingle gives her analysis of the budget here with characteristic logic.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-14/budget-built-on-hope-of-more-time/103843846
With a budget that is necessary but unexciting, Labor’s messaging and selling of it will be critical.
”
The messaging is very critical because even ALP supporters like ‘Confessions’ think that the budget doesn’t impact them.
“Confessionssays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 6:29 am
I think after all the pre-budget hype and series of ‘tests’ for Jim Chalmers, people feel a little meh this morning.
I didn’t watch the budget speech but this morning’s reports are all mixed. Personally I never benefit from budgets as I’m just not in the demographics that typically get targeted”
Griff: What basis would there be for assuming that welfare recipients would be less affected by rent increases than the general population?
The only group that would apply to are social housing residents – who, as I said above, have all their Rent Assistance taken by providers and so don’t receive a cent of it.
And you, Lordbain, what part of an analogous exercise do you not get!?! And yes, thanks for proving that The Greens solution to every problem is to print more money.
Honestly, trying to argue economic sensibility with Greens cheerleaders is like trying to debate the Theory of Relativity with a toddler.
Labor – socialising costs and privatising profits for their political donors and ALP’s investment funds.
Not paying much attention to the budget buy amused by An(g)us’ take on it as he describes the budget as political.
While we may just ignore his dribblings it prompts the thought, everything is political, this is the parliament that decides what sort of circumstances the people get to live in…when did calling something political become e pejorative?
My only answer is that this occurred when a politician decided that their views were self-centred and against the best intentions of the people and they wanted to keep discussion of their views ‘out of sight’. So it became one of those things to be avoided, like religion that stem from personal belief and not out of any legitimate, reasoned source.
CAT, let me make this really simple… a government budget is nothing like a household budget. Not sure how you didnt get that in the last comment, but hopefully you get it now 🙂
On the back of last nights budget, and all the various economists wildly varying views on this, what do people think about interest rates going up, down or staying the same over at least the next 12 months?
Lordbain says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:43 am
Thanks Griff.
Not sure I agree on the premise that this is oranges and apples; your certainly right that there is probably people out there that that get the benefits of the increased assistance, and local rents have not gone up as much as the average. But at the same time its also a useful demonstration that rental assistance needs to go alot higher if its going to actually start helping the majority of people its targeted at.
But i do appreciate you coming back and explaining your piece
____________
We will have to agree to disagree on whether such statements are useful 🙂
Farewell Alice Munro, 92, Canadian short story writer, Nobel laureate, and often compared to Anton Chekov and John Cheever.
”
Griffsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 8:01 am
Thanks BK!
The budget is too hot!
The budget is too cold!
It isn’t a magic pudding. It is porridge”
Sorry Griff to steal your thunder.
Even before the Budget speech is finished I posted saying it is Goldy locks budget. 🙂
But all the ALP bashers and journalists are saying ‘no cigar’. 🙂
Rebecca @ #474 Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 – 9:46 am
Rebecca. You have no idea. My daughter shares a flat with two others. They share the rent, funnily enough. Two of the three receive Youth Allowance and qualify for rent assistance. The rent assistance is paid into their personal bank accounts each fortnight. The flat is nothing special, and the rent is well below the mean for the suburb they live in. As Griff said, you are comparing apples with oranges, or, in this case 2 apples with one, much larger, orange.
Are you capable of understanding this?
Interesting that Dutton and co are so against the $300 being paid to “ high income earners “ but are, apparently, very keen to give them a tax cut.
Completely against a one off rebate of $300 but all for tax cuts for the rich of around $4000 to $5000 a year.
Cheers.
Re AI, I’m on the side of the fence it’s going to lead to quite large job losses in some sectors. There’s 300,000 people employed in call centres in Australia. I can see a third to a half of those jobs going in the next 5 years. I can not see them being replaced in some new wonder field. Labor are probably conscious of that.
Rebecca,
Thanks for not caring about Welfare recipients like me who have to pay rent in the private market because the waiting list for Social Housing in my state is 10 years long and the Coalition state government sold off most of our Social Housing stock and didn’t build any new places for us to live in. Hence the 10 year wait for people to die off so people like me can get a place to live in finally in Social Housing when we get to the top of the list. Nor did the Coalition federal government do anything about my Rent Assistance for nigh on 10 years, nor provide any monies to the States and Territories for more Social Housing.
Such a considerate and generous soul you are, Rebecca, for not caring about me. Vote for The Greens do you?
CAT, on the topic of rent assistance and Social housing that you just poured your heart out to… you deserve better. You, and others like you, deserve so much better.
The only thing I did not like about this budget to provide energy rebate to people over $200000
Rebecca says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:46 am
Griff: What basis would there be for assuming that welfare recipients would be less affected by rent increases than the general population?
The only group that would apply to are social housing residents – who, as I said above, have all their Rent Assistance taken by providers and so don’t receive a cent of it.
____________
You are talking about something quite different. The proportion that are subject to an increase in rent as opposed to an average increase in rent. I cannot explain in more clearly. It is best I get back to the grind 🙂
Totally understand where your coming from Ven, but depending on the means testing system designed to implement it, its can a)often be cheaper in the grand scheme of things to just given a benefit across the board… and b), its often harder to argue for the removal of a benefit thats available to everyone, as opposed to means testing (Ie, the doll bludger argument). Personally I have no issue with a means testing system designed to ensure the very obvious individuals (anyone say above 200k personal, 350k combined household) incomes are not eligible, but hey, thats just me
Ven says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:54 am
”
Griffsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 8:01 am
Thanks BK!
The budget is too hot!
The budget is too cold!
It isn’t a magic pudding. It is porridge”
Sorry Griff to steal your thunder.
Even before the Budget speech is finished I posted saying it is Goldy locks budget.
But all the ALP bashers and journalists are saying ‘no cigar’.
_________________
You win! In that case may I say Labor had better hope the budget isn’t pease pudding in the pot 9 days old at the next election? 🙂
I grew up in the 1970s and can clearly remember back then how computers/robots were going to take everyone’s jobs.
I’ll start taking notice of the AI apocalypse when it actually happens.
Just a quick question.
Can anyone please direct me to where on my electricity bill it states what my annual income is ?
Thanks in advance.
Lordbain,
Let me explain it to you again. I know the difference between a household budget and the federal budget. All I was asking of you was to use your imagination and apply the Greens budgetary precepts and overlay them onto a household budget scenario, not literally but figuratively, in a merely conceptual sense. To which your honest reply was that to fulfill Greens budgetary precepts, in our comparative scenario, you would have to get out the family printer and start cranking out some $100 notes. In our broadly comparable scenario I simply said, a responsible government will not do that. That means that The Greens wishlist can never be fulfilled by a fiscally responsible government. The things you and The Greens crave can only ever exist in the minds of fiscally reckless minor parties who will never get within a bull’s roar of government.
Now, if you don’t get this, I can’t help you.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:49 am
$566M to map Australia’s critical minerals, strategic materials, groundwater and fossil fuels. A repeat of past practice where taxpayers fund the search for the resources that low/non taxpaying multinationals then exploit? #BeABetterQuarry #auspol https://t.co/j9u8FgMjy3— Rex Patrick (@MrRexPatrick) May 14, 2024
Labor – socialising costs and privatising profits for their political donors and ALP’s investment funds.
”
I want to say idiotic statement by Rex but I will be generous like Griff and say “a deceptive statement by Rex Patrick and Rex Douglas.
The daughter of a friend is a accountant and shares a house with three friends of hers. One of those is a IT specialist and the other two are accountants.
My friend and I were talking this morning and he was wondering where on the electricity bill his daughter and friends receive every month it shows the individual incomes of e@ch of the house mates.
CAT, you cannot in any way compare a household budget with a government budget.
I dont know how much plainer i can say; any analogy that relies even remotely on this doesnt work.
For example, you dont in any way consider changing spending, you just claim the greens will need to start cranking out notes.
Also, and heres a secret… theres alot of economists that would argue that a surplus for the sake of surplus is pretty crap, especially when that money could be spent helping people… and before someone goes “inflationary spending”, theres a secret way you can prevent inflation… you can have targetted taxation increases. But its funny that this is never discussed
Lordbain,
One thing I do know is that, if my Rent Assistance went up to the extent you think it should be at then I would be the subject of massive favouritism by Real Estate Agents and the landlords they represent and the rents would therefore come in at that plus a bit more, which would likely put it out of the reach of the Working Poor, who believe that it is better to have a job than be on a Welfare payment, even if it makes life tough. I don’t want that scenario to occur.
Lordbain,
A Surplus puts downward pressure on inflation, which helps people. That’s why they do it!