As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
Re AI only Moses could stop AI tsunami.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Ok Entropy, what ever you say
I am just lying about being a classic C word, im actually just part of the tree tory brigade! Damnation, my mask is ruined
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I’m really asking do you actually support what Kohler wrote about austerity in his article on the budget today or not?. You are currently down as doing so. Yet much of what is written in that article does contradict what you have posted in the past on this. Alternatively do just support anything that is against Labor without caring what is actually said?.
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Lordbain said:
The article that Entropy is brining up for the record
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2024/05/14/alan-kohler-budget-risky-not-responsible
Note, thats not the article or point I said I agreed with.
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Entropy said: Pretty sure it was though (see below):
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The record that Lordbain claims he didn’t say in response to a “TM’s” post:
Taylormadesays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 7:26 am
Alan Kohler reckons this budget, through its increased spending, will lead to two more interest rate rises.
_____________________
I’ll take Kohler over The Kouk any day of the week.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 7:31 am
Yeh honestly same Taylor – and it’s totally not because in a Kohler fan boy
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EightESsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 10:08 am
I grew up in the 1970s and can clearly remember back then how computers/robots were going to take everyone’s jobs.
I’ll start taking notice of the AI apocalypse when it actually happens.
——————–
The reason you don’t notice it is because business isn’t coming out saying 10000 jobs replaced by a bot. Business is slowly replacing easy tasks done by entry level workers and bank branch closures and self-service checkouts because of technology.
Going to an early election doesnt really work well for govts I have found over the years.
Herald Sun 15/05
Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ wife Laura stole the show in a buttery Carla Zampatti dress while her husband debuted his second budget consecutive surplus.
The Weekend Magazine editor turned heads in a $899 yellow Carla Zampatti dress and matching $999 jacket on Tuesday night while supporting her husband on his big night.
_____________________
No cost of living crisis there.
Further to my post at 10.26. Retired army generals in the US have filed an amicus brief to the court deciding Trump’s immunity claim. I doubt they were invited to do so.
As I understand it, an amicus brief is where experts are invited to provide facts relevant to a court case. What law expertise retired generals would have I can’t imagine, beyond realising that Trump is a crook that is.
Image a similar group trying to influence a court case here. They skite about their democracy and freedoms. I think they are far behind most other western democracies.
frednk @ #520 Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 – 11:13 am
Agree. My experience similar to yours. I mostly generate optimisation systems, using Linear and Integer Programs, Monte Carlo and Simulated Annealing, sometimes a combination, and sometimes with NN’s. Somewhat complicated.
My problem with AI is that, as you imply, systems can be very poor at recognising that a particular ‘rogue’ output is bullshit, with potentially dire results.
eg What does the word ‘bound’ mean? Tied up? A jump? Going in the direction of? Almost certain to? …. Well?
Another eg. How does an AI application correctly work out whether a speaker/writer knows the meaning of the word ‘infer’.
What does ‘cool’ mean? What’s ‘good shit’?
Boerwar,
You know that whatever Labor spends on anything that it will never be enough for Irene. She would have to cease to exist then and I’m sure that’s not in her job description.
Ok Entropy, ill make it simple; in a popularity contest (again, the quip about parasocial relationships) i prefer Kohlers style over the K (form over function).
And again, if we were expanding the list of economists beyond these 2, I vastly prefer (in both substance and style) Yanis Varoufakis.
I also note that my preference for Kohler is not based on this mornings article, but Kohlers recent work relating to being honest about the cost of action on climate change.
Not sure how I can make that anymore simple
One day AI will eliminate the need for surgeons too. Especially ones who do the more mundane and routine types of surgery.
Herald Sun is trying to predict an early election based on bits of the budget
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 11:58 am
The most cynical comment by far over the past couple of days came from Adam Bandt.
This one is a pearler.
He reckons that the best job for a coal miner is another mining job.
The Greens have never, ever, ever supported a mine or the mining industry ever.
Surprisingly sensible suggestion from the Bandt, compared to Labor.
Do the Greens support Labor’s idea to vertically integrate all stages of production of Solar Panels?
That’s a pretty Populist proposal that would only appeal to fruitcakes.
The major parties are taking the p155
Taylormadesays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Herald Sun 15/05
Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ wife Laura stole the show in a buttery Carla Zampatti dress while her husband debuted his second budget consecutive surplus.
The Weekend Magazine editor turned heads in a $899 yellow Carla Zampatti dress and matching $999 jacket on Tuesday night while supporting her husband on his big night.
_____________________
No cost of living crisis there.
============================================
LNP supporter doesn’t like it when someone they consider not of their class wears something they believe should only be for their class. Also supporting an Australian brand and fashion designers is not in their DNA it seems.
And my last comment before I retire for the night.
1. A normal computer cannot simulate a quantum computer. Simply because a quantum computer can do so many more calculations than a normal computer, so how can it simulate the quantum computer? It makes no sense to say that.
2. Again I say, get a hold of the latest copy of Wired and read the interview with Jensen Huang. You will be enlightened about the nature of the future of AI.
3. Finally, Diogenes, you inadvertently answered your own question about why doesn’t the Albanese government invest in AI? So many others are already! So why invest our money for what would likely be only gains at the margins? Better to invest our money into the next big thing after AI, which other governments aren’t and reap the rewards from that.
Granny Anny
Law applies to the military too. There are lawyers in the officer corps. Perhaps the generals are concerned the military will be ordered to execute a coup or eliminate rivals by the Orange Turd(or another president in the future), if blanket immunity is granted. A legitimate concern, so why shouldn’t they file? Remember Trump using Mullen for his bible stunt. I’m certain they do
“LNP supporter doesn’t like it when someone they consider not of their class wears something they believe should only be for their class.”
Only Julie Bishop should be wearing expensive outfits.
She attended day one of Australian Fashion Week on Monday in a $2000 black cocktail dress by Rachel Gilbert with ostrich feather trim on the sleeves.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Irene says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:06 pm
More Albanese government failures, no funding, for the terrorism that is domestic violence.
…’
————————————————————-
Irene along with another Big Lie and along for another slag based on yet another Irene lie.
The Government is investing $925.2 million over five years from 2023–24 to provide support for victim‑survivors leaving a violent intimate partner relationship including support for migrants, regardless of their visa status.
Under the new program, victim‑survivors can access up to $5,000 in financial support, which will be indexed annually to ensure the payment meets the rising cost of living.
Additional support services will be available through the program including safety planning, risk assessment and referrals to other services for up to 12 weeks.
These commitments, alongside additional efforts to prevent and respond to gender‑based violence, form part of the Government’s $3.4 billion total investment for women’s safety and support the National Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children 2022–2032. This is complemented by the actions on gender‑based violence agreed by governments at the National Cabinet on 1 May 2024.
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This is a tiny amount compared to, say the $368billion for nuclear powered submarines, that will never be used in a war against Australians. But will help Scott Morrison, Joe Hockey, Christopher Pyne, and others gain another good income from the taxpayers from consulting on AUKUS.
Full Stop Australia Karen Bevan will know the true facts about the immense terrorism against women by a person she knows, and thus these trivial amount shows Labor is not interested. And you know nothing either.
Domestic violence, that is terrorism call outs to police are their biggest demand on their time.
Of course Albanese won’t call it terrorism as it would require more funding. Something he, Chalmers and the other Labor MPs don’t want to give it.
As people said after Albanese’s continuing Morrison’s policy, $925million – says it all about Labor, Morrisons and Liberal policies are important for Labor to continue, very few women will qualify.
And a few $billions, $3.4billion, over 10 years , is $340million over year. Will do very little.
Sad you are conned by Labor, who do not care about protecting women and children from violence.
Labor’s failures in this budget need to be called out. And often.
Subgeometer, I support that the generals are doing this to protect their democracy. My point is that in a real democracy where judges decided cases based on the law, not the political affiliation to the president that appointed them, this wouldn’t be necessary.
“Sad you are conned by Labor, who do not care about protecting women and children from violence.”
As opposed to the LNP who did what exactly in their last 3 terms?
Carla Zampatti’s designer is Allegra Spender’s sister now, I believe, after their mother died.
Oh, and funny how the Hun never clutched their pearls over the amounts that Julie Bishop’s clothes cost. Or Bronwyn Bishop, or any Liberal female MP or Senator, for that matter. Many, many times more than $900 for a dress and a thousand bucks for a jacket. But then they’re Liberal and Labor women are supposed to get their clothes from K Mart (more appropriate for their class), I guess.
frednk at 11:13 AM today.
What NN applications did you develop 20 years ago?
What’s wrong with K-Mart clothing?
My lad shops at Op Shops and dresses better than his peers who buy brand clothing new. Found me some ripper pieces as well.
steve davis,
Irene just lies about Labor’s financial contributions to protecting women and children from violence. It’s in her job description to lie about Labor every day here. Big lies. Able to be demonstably disproven with a quick google. But that’s not how disinformation campaigns work. It’s all about the vibe that is created by relentlessly pushing the lies out multiple times every day. Don’t expect it to stop any time soon. That’s not how she rolls. She knows full well that she is not telling the truth about the government. I have never seen a lily that well gilded.
Friendlyjordies’ latest, putting a lot of blame on the current skills shortage on the Coalition’s policy of gutting TAFE and Vocational Education.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y_lpjs9zpY
Just how bad it was – Coffs Harbour TAFE had to cancel its Bricklaying course, so there was nothing available in that field in NSW North of Newcastle.
FUBAR,
It’s the inverse snobbery of the Hun commenting that wearing Carla Zampatti was above a Labor Treasurer’s wife’s options.
C@t
Reminds me very much of an alter ego and sock puppet called Nath.
Bed! Me. Now!
C@t
Goodnight Trumpland. Hehe!
steve davissays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:03 pm
“LNP supporter doesn’t like it when someone they consider not of their class wears something they believe should only be for their class.”
Only Julie Bishop should be wearing expensive outfits.
She attended day one of Australian Fashion Week on Monday in a $2000 black cocktail dress by Rachel Gilbert with ostrich feather trim on the sleeves.
================================================
Though i do note Julie Bishop wore an Australian brand too. As promoting more home grown industry is a good thing. I will not condemn her for that at all.
My prediction of the short-term Poll effect of Budget is “bugger all”, as in nothing outside the margin of error.
They’ve taken a massive risk tying their fortune to the inflation figures and therefore the RBA and mortgage interest rate changes. It might work in their favour but I can see that being very messy for them. Hopefully the Opposition will hold their feet to the fire on this if it moves against the government.
Election timing strategy remains the same whatever happens – as late as possible. (Unless there is some outside the box massive movement in polling favouring the ALP for some reason).
Irene says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:06 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Irene says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:06 pm
More Albanese government failures, no funding, for the terrorism that is domestic violence.
…’
————————————————————-
Irene along with another Big Lie and along for another slag based on yet another Irene lie.
The Government is investing $925.2 million over five years from 2023–24 to provide support for victim‑survivors leaving a violent intimate partner relationship including support for migrants, regardless of their visa status.
Under the new program, victim‑survivors can access up to $5,000 in financial support, which will be indexed annually to ensure the payment meets the rising cost of living.
Additional support services will be available through the program including safety planning, risk assessment and referrals to other services for up to 12 weeks.
These commitments, alongside additional efforts to prevent and respond to gender‑based violence, form part of the Government’s $3.4 billion total investment for women’s safety and support the National Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children 2022–2032. This is complemented by the actions on gender‑based violence agreed by governments at the National Cabinet on 1 May 2024.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:22 pm
Alternatively, they are being complimentary and she looked great and was wearing an Australian designer. Can’t say it bothers me. I have no idea if she earns herself but it’s not like her husband can’t afford it so good on her.
Budgets rarely affect opinion polls. Usually just a non event.
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:15 pm
What’s wrong with K-Mart clothing?
===================================================
Not sure the wife of a treasure should be promoting the Bangladesh textiles industry on Budget night though. Going with designed and made in Australia was the better option.
What have we got against Bangladeshis now?
WA ALP government absolutely giving the Federal Government an evisceration over their Live Sheep ban.
“ The relationship between State Labor Agriculture Minister Jackie Jarvis and her Federal counterpart Murray Watt appears in tatters, with Ms Jarvis telling the Queensland senator his decisions over live exports have not been “in the interest of WA” and “it is difficult to see how we can work collaboratively”.”
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/state-agriculture-minister-jackie-jarvis-tells-murray-watt-live-sheep-ban-is-not-in-the-interest-of-wa–c-14673875
The private polling must be very worrying. Surprising that Albo is prepared to lose seats in WA on this issue to appease a very small activist section of the community.
Are there any clothing textiles made in Australia for the mass market?
It’s chunderous reading Dutton’s criticism of giving $300 to Gina & Twiggy. 6 months or so after he raged at the idea of them not getting their rightful coalition ordained tax cut.
Fred
Because of the explainability problem, a lot of models now will give a level of certainty, eg that shadow on a CT Chest is 75% likely to be a metastasis.
MI
Nurses are very worried about that. Some will be replaced by unskilled labour plus a bot.
Yabba
The hallucinations can be incredibly convincing. That’s because LLMs are actually trained to output what seems reasonable, not the truth. It’s bizarre if you think about it.
The Herald Sun likes its envy and society gossip but the dress goes to labor doing more for middle class and wealthy people than the disadvantaged.
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:38 pm
What have we got against Bangladeshis now?
====================================================
Nothing, we import lots of their clothes. Just Australia Budget night is not the event to wear them at though. They are at their best in a backyard BBQ type setting instead. Unless it is at Jeff Kennett’s house. I hear he is even a clothes snob at BBQ’s.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Boerwar,
You know that whatever Labor spends on anything that it will never be enough for Irene. She would have to cease to exist then and I’m sure that’s not in her job description.
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Labor is spending too much on Defence. And too little on domestic violence, terrorism against women. And violence against men.
The biggest danger to an Australian is another Australian. But Labor had to follow the Liberal AUKUS policy. Too bad about violence against Australians at home.
Most Labor polices are identical to Liberal ones.
And women and children are not as important to men in Labor and Liberal eyes, so they don’t deserve much help.
It’s a bit of an unofficial tradition for federal governments to call an early election to end their first term. Going back to the 1970s, I believe Abbott/Turnbull holds the record for the latest first-term election at just two months short of three years after the previous election. Then comes Rudd/Gillard at three months short of three years, followed by (going by memory) daylight.
The difference this time is the wafer-thin majority combined with the polls being iffy, which will probably encourage party strategists to hold on longer than usual.
Oh, and by the way, the earliest an election can be held is early August, not July (the campaign could start in July).
What have we got against Bangladeshis now?
Steady on.
Labor has the White Australia policy in it’s DNA.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 1:47 pm
The Herald Sun likes its envy and society gossip but the dress goes to labor doing more for middle class and wealthy people than the disadvantaged.
————————
Labor the Alternate Liberal Party. The middle class and wealthy may donate to Labor, hence some help for them.
Disadvantaged and children won’t. Hence no extra support from Labor.
Interesting potential election year budget. I can’t wait to see Labor’s reply to it tomorrow night.
Australia isn’t even close to spending enough on Defence.
We are in the same situation as we were in pre-WWII – horribly underfunded and ill-equipped – hoping nothing bad happens in the next 20 years. Hope is not a plan or a method.
Thanks for this.
Not just the gutting of TAFE. You can trace it back to the gutting of government and semi government agencies like Telecom. Places like that did some serious training of the next generation of trades and other skilled workforce – often alongside TAFE, supporting the cadet in the process. That shifted way too much of the load onto smaller companies and TAFE (and also on immigration).
Granny Anny
Fair enough
Although I think that in a time of crisis its possible for malign actors to game any system.