As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
Kevin Bonham: YouGov pre-budget ALP 30 L-NP 38 Green 13 ON 8 others 11. 2PP 50-50 (down from 52-48 to ALP). (YouGov uses last-election prefs rounded to whole numbers, my last-election estimate for these primaries to one decimal is ALP trails 49.5-50.5)
Should get a reasonable post budget effect given this poll. Look forward to their next poll.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:41 pm
Kevin Bonham: YouGov pre-budget ALP 30 L-NP 38 Green 13 ON 8 others 11. 2PP 50-50 (down from 52-48 to ALP). (YouGov uses last-election prefs rounded to whole numbers, my last-election estimate for these primaries to one decimal is ALP trails 49.5-50.5)
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Yes, I thought the ALP had dropped down below 50% on 2PP. KB’s calcs have also detected this.
I use the PB consensus calculation to try and work out the correct 2PP. I’m not the best on maths.
I think it roughly goes ALP Primary + 86% of the Grn vote + 35% of the ONP vote + ?% of Indies
WB or Steve777 usually convert the figure correctly so perhaps best to wait until one of them picks up the poll.
Albo is a card.
I especially like his falsetto
, but defenestration followed by a July Election is the ALPs only hope now.
A Nicola Roxon type who can get up Dutton’s nose might be a good pick?
“ Running the free world” … often repeated by US media.. including the “left” podcasts I listen to.. what level of hubris do the Yanks operate at.. the POTUS barely runs America let alone the fee world.
I just heard belatedly about the Daily Fail spluttering about Laura Chalmers’ dress. Has Van Onselen tried to defend that dreck or is he head under the covers pretending he’s still got self respect?
Great day for fed opposition cherry on top was being labelled racist by the greens.
Now they need to dive deep on the number of students who have not gone home even though their visas have expired.Tens of thousands of illegals in Aus on various visas hanging on via AAT etc.
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:44 pm
Should get a reasonable post budget effect given this poll. Look forward to their next poll.
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YouGov were due to report on Thurs 23-May. They have dropped this one a bit early. Even Freshwater (who are six days overdue), have held off so I’m a bit surprised YouGov didn’t wait until next week. You never know, YouGov may drop another post Budget poll next week. They’ll all be polling now.
davidwh @ #1652 Friday, May 17th, 2024 – 7:14 pm
Don’t hold your breath for a budget bounce. While it wasn’t a controversial one, it’s hardly a huge vote-winner. Also, as I’ve said before, politically engaged people tend to overestimate how much people care about the budget. As such, I’m pretty sure that most of the time budget bounces (or drops) aren’t really a thing – at least not significantly.
Nadia it’s likely they will poll again quickly.
It would be useful to clarify some figures on Reinhart’s sports sponsorship.
What percentage of total support to swimming and other sports was by Reinhart? That is, how important was Reinhart’s contribution in relation to other private sponsorships and taxpayers’ money.
How much advertising did Reinhart’s businesses receive on team uniforms etcetera in return for this sponsorship and how much was claimed as tax deductions?
If Reinhart withdrew financial support tomorrow, what would happen to the Australian swimmers in competition at the Paris Olympics and beyond?
Tricot says:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:07 pm
Agree with a lot of that. I went through after ADFA had taken the three year degree entry and Duntroon was purely the Officer Training. Wasn’t barely any bastardisation.
Luke Gosling was my junior class and is a friend having served with him in 1 Brigade in Darwin for a few years – clearly the indoctrination didn’t work.
Badthinker @ #1654 Friday, May 17th, 2024 – 7:17 pm
IF (I am not necessarily endorsing it) they were to change leaders, the worst thing they could do is run straight to the polls. Ignoring the fact a July election could only be House only (the earliest a House + Half-Senate election could be held is in August), rushing to the polls with a new leader that nobody knows or has any strong trust for would be a mistake (and a contributor to Labor’s problem when they did it last time.)
I am of two minds of whether the Government should call an election later this year or leave it to April/May next year but, if they were to change leaders mid-term, I would wholeheartedly endorse the latter.
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:56 pm
Nadia it’s likely they will poll again quickly.
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I think so davidwh. To me it seems a bit silly to drop a poll, after the budget, but only include a sample poll period of pre budget. It’s like a “non-poll”. YouGov are an international polling company who are known for their accuracy in the UK. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another YouGov next week. As I posted before, they were actually due to report on Thurs 23-May. We’ll see. I don’t have a crystal ball but I try to give posters an indication of what polls will likely drop in the immediate future.
”
FUBARsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 6:27 pm
Entropy says:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 6:07 pm
The old “spread some unmitigated bullshit” and then challenge anyone who calls you out to prove a negative.
”
Entropy is giving the same medicine you give to others on PB
Say something (usually crap) and ask people to prove it otherwise.
Atleast Entropy provided some links.
You and Badthinker are just trying to prove the indefensible that what a great bloke Joh B-P was
So, Dutton AND Trump next year.
Fuk it.
Don’t think I care anymore.
I’m not sure changing leaders would help Labor.
Labor policy is pretty much set in stone for the next decade. Nothing would materially change.
@Ven at 8:07pm
Hear hear. God I’m sick of FUBAR and co’s crybullying.
We have known you to be wrong before Mundo. 🙂
If the interest rates cuts do occur around September – November this year
It will be very interesting budget reply from Federal Liberal Party leader Angus Taylor before the 2025 federal election around this time
Angus Taylor is the only choice the Federal Liberal Party have when they replace Dutton , only 5-6 months before the federal election
Rex Douglas @ #1667 Friday, May 17th, 2024 – 7:40 pm
Yeah, that’s my biggest counterpoint to the idea. I think people are expecting a wholesale change to policy, and while there might be some refinement around the edges, the core policies would remain unchanged. Furthermore, I think the operational and communication problems the Albanese Government currently have run a lot deeper than Albanese himself or his inner circle and are probably going to be a taint in a Government led by any Labor leader. The entire culture of the party needs to change TBH, otherwise the same mistakes will keep getting made, if given the chance.
Wat Tylersays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:02 pm
Badthinker @ #1654 Friday, May 17th, 2024 – 7:17 pm
defenestration followed by a July Election is the ALPs only hope now.
IF (I am not necessarily endorsing it) they were to change leaders, the worst thing they could do is run straight to the polls. Ignoring the fact a July election could only be House only (the earliest a House + Half-Senate election could be held is in August), rushing to the polls with a new leader that nobody knows or has any strong trust for would be a mistake (and a contributor to Labor’s problem when they did it last time.)
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Thanks for confirming Wat. I gave a run down two nights ago about the electoral calendar, but some posters still seem to think we can have a July election. Not possible, the earliest possible date is Sat 10-Aug.
Badthinker – you are very bad because you don’t read what the sensible posters post on this site! There is absolutely no possibility of a July election this year. Wat is correct that there could be a “House only” election, but no PM is ever going to do that, certainly not on primary voting figures sitting around 30-32%.
To clarify, Mr Albanese can hold a “House only” election as late as Sat 27-Sep-2025, but he’s not going to do that either because there is a half Senate vote which needs to take place before 30-Jun-2025. There is absolutely no possibility of Mr Albanese running two seperate elections on different dates for different houses.
We will have a normal House & half senate at some stage between Sat 10-Aug-2024 & Sat 24-May-2025.
If the Interest rate cuts happen in early in 2025, then it will be too late for the federal liberal party to change from Dutton
They will be sweating the lib/nats do not get below 50 seats on 2025 federal election night
Which means the federal liberal party would likely lose a few senior liberal party leader alternatives , to be leader of the federal lib/nats opposition after the 2025 federal election
Yes Ven
AG Michael Daley spoke well from the bar table with Dreyfus KC sitting nearby.
Richard McHugh SC had a warm chat with Sir Anthony Mason (across the political divide) who looks pretty good for 99 years old.
There was mention of the speech given by Gough Whitlam on the 175th anniversary. Indeed it was a bit of an ALP love in with a video montage featuring Evatt CJ and mention of Neville Wran QC.
Plus lots more stuff. Do yourselves a favour when the video goes online.
Relying on interest rate cuts to win an election is dangerous strategy.
the voters have made up their minds the federal lib/nats are averaging 36% around the 2022 federal election in the opinion polling
The non lib/nats voters are likely to stick with other independents/ minor partys who are not allign to the Lib/nats , if they do not vote Labor
Labor 2nd Term Majority is very likely more than a minority at this point
MI
is it true?
Lambies to slaughter: Staff exodus hits state Jacqui Lambie Network
https://www.examiner.com.au/story/8631399/jacqui-lambie-state-branch-rocked-with-staff-exodus-this-week/
the racist radioactive wrecker is toast when interest rates start falling 😆
davidwh says:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:23 pm
Relying on interest rate cuts to win an election is dangerous strategy.
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It probably doesnt matter , it too similar leading into the 2022 federal election , no matter how much the lib/nats propaganda media is attacking Labor , the voters are not shifting
Dutton has shown the federal lib/nats have nothing to offer different to what they offered before the 2022 federal election
Arkysays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:50 pm
I just heard belatedly about the Daily Fail spluttering about Laura Chalmers’ dress. Has Van Onselen tried to defend that dreck or is he head under the covers pretending he’s still got self respect?
_____________________
She reminded me of Rebecca Judd on Brownlow night.
The Queen of the WAGS is our Bec.
Racist radioactive wrecker, I’ll pay that. 🙂
FUBAR ….
My more direct knowledge of matters at Duntroon were back in the day the place was more or less an elite private boy’s college. I am aware that in more recent times the cadets are treated like adults not green school kids……
I totally disagree with an earlier poster who proposed that professional servicemen/women are some kind of blood thirsty hunting party.
I worry, however, about some of the goings on reported from SAS actions in Afghanistan.
I certainly don’t think you should be pilloried merely because you became a professional soldier via Duntroon or anywhere else for that matter….
Taking that description apart. Racist will get him votes. Wrecker may help if it’s the left he is wrecking. However radioactive is a dead set political negative.
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:23 pm
Relying on interest rate cuts to win an election is dangerous strategy.
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I guess if you believe your economic policies will likely result in this. Then it could be considered a vote of confidence in your ability as a Government to achieve this. Though obviously a lot of events that are not under a Governments control effect interest rates too.
Though a Government going a full term is generally the default position. I don’t think you lose votes by doing just that.
I’m just going to say this right now: If your strategy for defeating Dutton is to call him a racist, you will lose.
I know this is just a label being thrown around on a politics forum but please don’t make it an offline thing and the ALP itself needs to steer well and truly clear of that kind of label.
Some discussion of ADFA/RMC issues here today. My eldest son went through in 2002-2006 and is currently a Lt.Col. Any bastardisation had disappeared by then but he does say that there is a fair cohort of conservative officers coming out. He was a classmate of Andrew Hastie (who had been at university the previous year and transferred), who reputedly is quite conservative.
I have a good friend who was a classmate of Jim Moylan (Dec) and although politically at polar opposite ends of the political spectrum claimed he was a good bloke.
One thing favouring the production of conservative officers is the private school system that feeds many into the army..
My son reckoned they were wankers.
Entropy inflation is key to interest rate movements. While we still have two major military conflicts happening it is hard to predict inflationary pressures with any confidence. Labor need to be careful they don’t create an expectation on rate reductions. They already have expectations created on cost of living and housing to manage.
I see that Shanks shone a light on the Mossop J track record today following the McBride stitch up.
Agree Wat.
Integrity doubling down.
Have you no shame, sir?
I have read some of his stuff. I don’t agree with it all but he is certainly not a fool. A bit eccentric perhaps.
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 8:31 pm
[Taking that description apart. Racist will get him votes. Wrecker may help if it’s the left he is wrecking. However radioactive is a dead set political negative.]
Dutton is an “isodope”.
Evening all. I have been out of town from early today on a site visit to Port Lincoln and only just got back. Qantas cancelled my first booked flight while I was on the way to the airport. Thanks to Rex Airlines for saving the day.
Catching up with Dutton’s reply to the budget was as predictable as it was depressing. He might as well have said “brown people go home”.
Labor just has to be patient and stick to its guns (except for AUKUS and gas policy cave-ins). Cost of living relief in the budget is easily justified. Keeping overall spending down to limit pressure on inflation and interest rates is the only politically and economically sustainable course.
This will work, but like most strategies based on best long term community outcome, takes time to take effect. Stage 3 kicking in will help. So will lower interest rates.
Observations
This afternoons PB was right out of control!
Not sure where WB was.
No one will ever change FUBAR’s military training, hard right-wing mindset.
The other Liberal dribblers are inconsequential.
Surprised to see OE get into an ongoing debate, go OE!!
Me?
Well, we’ll see.
Dog’s Brunch
Back in the day, the intake to Duntroon was organised such that there was a spread of cadets from all types of schools across Oz, a goodly number of Kiwis and some odds and sods from other countries such as Thailand. Also, back in the day, many non-government schools had cadet corps of their own. Thus is was thought the SUO from Kings School in Paramatta might be up himself, hence the use of bastardisation then. As it was explained to me, Class Four went in as the shit of kings and the Graduating Class was known as the King of Shits. How true any of this was, is a conjecture.
I think things changed when the intake included females, though in the early days they were given a hard time – and a sexual element was introduced into the mix that was not the case when it was all blokes….
I have no idea whether young officers today of any of our services lean more to Labor or to LNP…I suspect they too represent the cross section of the Oz electorate.
Our recently retired Premier in WA (ex RAN officer) was certainly not a Liberal anyway!
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 7:36 pm
Entropy my favorite Jo answer when the media were asking the same question a number of times went something like this “you, you, you, you are whipping a dead horse and, and, and then turning it over and whipping the other side”
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My main problem in remembering some of Joh’s quotes. I can’t remember now which ones were Joh’s and which ones were Max Gillies playing Joh.
Entropy being a Liberal I hated how the Nats walked all over the Libs. Having said that they were a motley crew for much of the time.
“Angus Taylor is the only choice the Federal Liberal Party have when they replace Dutton , only 5-6 months before the federal election”
Probably. He strikes me as a better “retail” politician that Dutton. Bit of a Barnyard type but with less spittle and not AS unhinged. But i cant see the Libs dumping Dutton before the next election. He’s too nasty and would take his revenge on the party.
Albo will lead into the next election. Really, the only people making #leadershit comments in that direction are the Lib Luvvies that are getting more desperate. Their nightmare is:
Everyone getting a bigger tax cut July 1 and more $ in their take home pay.
Some level of Real Wage Growth.
An interest rate cut Oct/Nov this year with any prospect of further cuts into 2025.
An increase to Jobseeker in the May 2025 Budget next year or WORSE …. at MYEFO time this year.
And that is not an implausible scenario.
TRicot / Dog’s Brunch
What were the navy officer intakes back when you went through like? These days they seem overwhelmingly anglo-saxon in what has become a fairly diverse country and conservative in many cases. Was that always the case?
In Port Lincoln today the fishing industry is huge and it is a very sea-focused town. There is a large cohort of Croatian immigrants in the industry there, and a lot of family businesses with a strong link to sea based work. I couldn’t help thinking the RAN ought to recruit there(!) but I don’t think I have ever met an RAN officer with an eastern European background.
davidwhsays:
Friday, May 17, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Entropy being a Liberal I hated how the Nats walked all over the Libs. Having said that they were a motley crew for much of the time.
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Not being from Queensland. We saw Max Gillies take on it more than the real thing. No internet in those days and local TV or papers didn’t cover other states politics that much either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlNk1E_rzGo