As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
Budget looks pretty good on the whole. Perhaps a little more inflationary than one would ideally want, but the main factor there is the Stage 3 tax cuts, which are an unavoidable blast from the past.
Well done Chalmers and the Government.
A boring and insipid B- budget.
Enough to not be a net vote loser.
”
”
Mavissays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:48 pm
I refuse to contrast & compare Chalmers to Keating.”
Mavis
You don’t have to.
Keating was flamboyant. There is only one Keating.
No assistance for the homeless.
Hmm if they use the local restrooms will they be able to get the electricity rebate?
This should shut the coalition (and others) up:
Highly skilled migrants will be targeted while the total migration intake is slashed over coming years, as the government tries to reduce pressure on the stretched housing sector while building out its Future Made in Australia plan.
After a record net overseas migration intake of 528,000 in 2022-23, Treasury is forecasting that figure will decline to 395,000 in 2023-24, before tapering off even further to 260,000 in the coming financial year. The permanent migration program will be capped at 185,000 places in 2024-25, with 132,200 places allocated to the skill stream to “help address Australia’s long-term skill needs”.
A $18.3m investment over the next four years will seek to further reform Australia’s system to “drive greater economic prosperity and restore its integrity”
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk;
25 minutes after the budget and the markets have spoken about the stimulatory / inflation risks.
3 year bond 3.95%. No change
10 year bond 4.33%. No change
AUD 0.6610. Up 0.004one, zilch, zip, zero, nada, nix.
And I can assure you markets would move if there was an issue
The budget surplus is for the financial year 23-24.
The new spending announced is for the financial year 24-25 and beyond.
The new spending is possible, in part, because of the surplus in 23-24.
It is not rocket science.
Cheers and a good night to all.
Tax to GDP ratio:
2023-24 23.8%
2024-25 23.3%
2025-26 23.1%
2026-27 23.3%
Chalmers leaves Taylor in his dust. Not even in the same paddock.
Dutton will have no reply to the premium on responsibility
$565 mil. to fund a Full Geological Survey of Australia, water resources included, eh.
Identifying Nuclear Waste sites for our AUKUS mates, perhaps?
MelbourneMammothsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:55 pm
A boring and insipid B- budget.
Enough to not be a net vote loser.
_____________________
C-
At best.
I’m purely looking at the budget in terms of health and AI in SA and it’s deplorable. Albo doesn’t believe in AI and the only possible investment in SA for health might be Urgent Care Clinics which are a complete waste of money.
Don’t know about the rest but I genuinely can’t bring myself to vote for that Muppet. Obviously can’t vote Dutton so I’m hoping for a decent teal like Rachel Swift.
Albo has no vision whatsoever.
“No assistance for the homeless.”
They don’t vote. They are invisible.
Now will Dutton and Taylor pledge to reinstate the original Stage 3 tax cuts (and even build on them) in the budget reply on Thursday?
Unemployment up to 4.5 percent in a year.Going up .
NDIS under labor will blow out by another 5 billion .Deficits for a decade.
Opposition will have a field day with this.
Dutton
Reward those who are earning over 1 million dollars
Reward the lib/nats propaganda media units
Everyone (even the lib/nats supporters) who were earning more under Labor will earn 50% less under the lib/nats
Thats what I “enjoy” about the ABC winners/losers table; if theres funding they are winners, but god forbid we actually consult with experts about if it addresses whats needed, or if its simply a quasi election budget…
Dutton
Inflation under the federal lib/nats will continue to be higher than 7% on a consistent basis
Interest rates will continue to rise , electricity prices will rise
The only thing Dutton and his cronies will offer expensive nuclear thought bubble
Four times as much for a firearm registry as investment in AI.
And people think I’m cynical about how stupid politicians are.
Universities to build international student housing under a student enrolment/housing ratio to be determined?
More bullshit.
“ Opposition will have a field day with this.”
never fear, Pied Pooper: Ssussan is on to it!
The Australian government’s funding for its Aukus nuclear-powered submarine project will ramp up sharply, with the federal budget earmarking $2.59bn next financial year.
A lot of money to splash around the pub for a few Navy types to have a quick knees up at taxpayers expense.. like ALL defense spending there will be nothing to show for it in the end
Being reminded why I no longer watch 7.30 Report.
Sarah Ferguson being the chief hectorer
Well then, this certainly puts an end to the constant heckling from the Coalition about the promised “$275 reduction in energy prices” at the election.
Now it’s here, and it’s $300, so they can shove that up their clackers.
Sarah Ferguson certainly kicking up a stink about it on the post-budget interview with Jim Chalmers for sure.
Sceptic, I dont think alot of posters here will still be alive when your proven right on that front…
Ven, that’s my point!
‘Sceptic says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:18 pm
The Australian government’s funding for its Aukus nuclear-powered submarine project will ramp up sharply, with the federal budget earmarking $2.59bn next financial year.
A lot of money to splash around the pub for a few Navy types to have a quick knees up at taxpayers expense.. like ALL defense spending there will be nothing to show for it in the end’
———————–
That is exactly what people said during the 1930s.
Of course it was not what they were saying in the first half of the 1940’s.
Diogenes says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:17 pm
Four times as much for a firearm registry as investment in AI.
And people think I’m cynical about how stupid politicians are.
Just look at the staffers employed on the Hill.. by both parties.. 16 year olds still wet behind the ears, explains all.
‘Badthinker says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:17 pm
Universities to build international student housing under a student enrolment/housing ratio to be determined?
More bullshit.’
—————
Someone is triggered! The largest single private sector landlord by far in the ACT is the ANU.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:20 pm
Glad to see defense strategy is still rooted in the 19th C
Diogenes
Not sure what you are on about with no funding for AI?
Try looking at p141 of Budget Paper 2
https://budget.gov.au/content/bp2/download/bp2_2024-25.pdf
Sceptic
True. And most politicians are pretty dim with minimal life experience so they get their advice from “experts” like Lehmann.
Peter Dutton will be hoping October doesn’t come to quickly, Angus Taylor would likely want October to come quickly
If only O’Brien could be invigorated – Sarah, a sad mismatch! I’m off.
It’s a “no losers” budget. I think we have an election coming up in late 2024 (b/w Sep & early Dec)
* There’s a kept election promise of a rebate on electricity ($300 from Jul 1, or $75 per qtr)
* There’s a play to Senior Citz with extra funding (to try and wean them off the Coalition)
* There’s a play to rental subsidies (to try and neuter the Greens)
This Budget is ticking off some of the gov’t’s weak spots. Mr Chalmers seems quite confident with delivery. Fairly confident to say there won’t be another Budget this parliamentary cycle.
I’ll do the psephology calculations in a minute and we’ll check some dates.
‘Badthinker says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:04 pm
$565 mil. to fund a Full Geological Survey of Australia, water resources included, eh.
Identifying Nuclear Waste sites for our AUKUS mates, perhaps?’
———————-
The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments spent a fortune on identifying potential nuclear waste sites, consulting with communities about the potential sites, etc, etc, etc. The result? Nothing.
Did I miss something. I thought the $300 energy rebate was a…rebate.
Presumably that means it will be coming directly off energy bills and not into peoples bank accounts.
Either I’m missing something or Ferguson is.
Badthinker says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:17 pm
Universities to build international student housing under a student enrolment/housing ratio to be determined?
More bullshit.
You need to drive down Anzac Pde in Sydney just past NSW Uni.. the Uni is building a 1000 student rooms .. subsidies them to build more so they can import more students is an excellent idea for the Uni business model.. does SFA for the general homeless..
The policy only works if they cap / reduce foreign student intake.
All parties do their best work while in opposition
A renter only gets an extra dollar a day in rent assistance, while this budget gives the country’s property investors $1290 every second – every cent denying renters the chance to buy their first home. This represents $175.4bn across the forward estimates, compared to a claimed new $6.2 bn for housing by the government – Greens attack line
There; if you think Labors proposed rent assistance is going to garner much support from that audience, then good luck…
The Fox mob seem to be of the opinion that this is a budget for an election later this year. Interesting.
Pages 65 to 73 outlines The Future Made in Australia program
Blows the ‘do nothing, no vision’ charlatans out of the water
https://budget.gov.au/content/bp2/download/bp2_2024-25.pdf
Diogenes says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:24 pm
Did you read my mind..
Taylor starts with a BIG LIE.
Sceptic
“ The Australian government’s funding for its Aukus nuclear-powered submarine project will ramp up sharply, with the federal budget earmarking $2.59bn next financial year.
A lot of money to splash around the pub for a few Navy types to have a quick knees up at taxpayers expense.. like ALL defense spending there will be nothing to show for it in the end”
In fact that spending will be on the shipyard upgrades in Perth. Actual spending on submarines, nuclear or otherwise, is years away.
As I have said before, AUKUS is the great slowdown in sub spending for this decade.
I see no increase in transport infrastructure spending, and I see that as a good thing. Construction resources should be going into housing.
sprocket
Less than $40m over 5 years. That is less than 1% of what OpenAIs share price went up today with ChatGPT4o.
Albo has thrown in the towel. He’s like the politicians in New York who said they wouldn’t support this electricity thing 100 years ago as it wouldn’t catch on.
Malinauskas and Uni Adelaide put $12m into AI in SA a week ago. Australia will become a desert for AI under Albo.
Lordbain says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:29 pm
A renter only gets an extra dollar a day in rent assistance, while this budget gives the country’s property investors $1290 every second – every cent denying renters the chance to buy their first home. This represents $175.4bn across the forward estimates, compared to a claimed new $6.2 bn for housing by the government – Greens attack line’
—————–
The Greens at their worst.
Aqualung
Next financial year, everyone gets a $75 per quarter reduction off their electricity bill.
So for those of us with solar panels + battery, I guess a credit will sit on the bills until we ask the provider for a refund
The federal Lib/nats are completely against AI
This budget will make us better off now, worse off later
Ross GittinsMay 14, 2024 — 7.32pm
It’s said you can tell a government’s true priorities from what it does in its budget. If so, the top priority of Anthony Albanese’s government is not to have any priorities.
You know you are f###ed when a moderate like Ross calls you out.. smug pills all round for Labor’s front bench
sprocket_ @ #297 Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 – 8:33 pm
Ferguson was making out as if it was going into peoples bank accounts.
I can’t see people jumping around going whoopee I’m going out to spend $75. Yee ha.