As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
@Aqualung at 8:28pm
I’m assuming that it would be something like the Victorian energy bill rebate from the past couple of years, where bill-payers self-report their latest bill to the federal government and get a direct payment from the government to their bank account in response if all checks out, even if it’s reduced to something like $75 every 3 months.
Happy to be corrected in this if I’m thinking wrong.
Sprocket
What structural reforms are there that the Australian people will look back on in ten years, or even three years?
It’s a nothing budget. Don’t scare the horses.
Yes Nadia88 an early election as expected. Get in before the chickens come home to roost – there’ll be some serious internal polling post Budget on with Albo, without Albo as well which is the last key variable before the election.
Dio
Are you suggesting Albo should be picking AI winners? High wire stuff IMHO
The winner picking is geared towards the renewable economy and critical minerals – segments where Australia has natural endowments
Lars Von Trier
next years Budget , and it would be a surprise to see Peter Dutton doing the last federal Lib/nats federal budget reply before the 2025 federal election in a years time
“ That is exactly what people said during the 1930s.
Of course it was not what they were saying in the first half of the 1940’s.”
______
Silly point, Boer.
On the one hand, the problem is that AUKUS wont deliver a capability within a decade. Even the ‘second hand subs’ part of the deal won’t see three subs in service until 2039 (and a navy operating US subs actually needs 3 subs in service to sustain a capability as only one would be ‘on station’ at any time).
On the other hand, for all the criticism of the French and British governments of the 1930s, they were the only ones who did anything to rearm and in fact did so to the extent that in terms of defence matériels were in a position to actually beat the germans in Western Europe in spring 1940 (it is however a pity that their armies’ high command were not up to it tactically though and got themselves ‘out Guderianed’ straight off the bat. Alas). All in all, a pretty good effort from a bunch of folk wrongly pilloried by churchillian propagandists as mere ‘appeasers’. But I digress.
Dio
The transition to a net zero economy is structural reform
Aqualungsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:28 pm
Did I miss something. I thought the $300 energy rebate was a…rebate.
Presumably that means it will be coming directly off energy bills and not into peoples bank accounts.
Either I’m missing something or Ferguson is.
=========================
It comes off your Electricity Bill, similar to QLD where we have the QLD gov’t rebate.
In fact, in QLD, from July 1, we’ll get $125 p/qtr off the state gov’t and $75 p/qtr off the Feds.
ie: $200 per qtr
And I’m warming a bit to the early election narrative – all we need is for the RBA to start cutting rates and it could be on
Dio
What areas of use are you looking for Ai investment in?
For the record, in my field (tranport and infrastructure) AI has not really proven useful and is a bit “oversold”. It doesn’t change the physical problem.
Yeah and I suppose everybody wants the fella back that said everyone should get a better job FFS
Sceptic, Ross is just another far leftist from the far left media /s
No worries Kirsdarke. I get what Ferguson was trying to say but if it’s a rebate you either spend your money upfront and get reimbursed or it gets paid to the energy provider and gets deducted from the bill.
I’m not sure her point was all that valid.
Defense spending..
Can someone explain what the funny thing on the bow of this ship is for… do we actually have anything that would us it?
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:38 pm
“ That is exactly what people said during the 1930s.
Of course it was not what they were saying in the first half of the 1940’s.”
______
Silly point, Boer.’
===============
Tell that to the chaps who went up in Brewster Buffaloes against Zeroes.
There are two levels of discussion here. The first is guns v butter. The second is spending wisely on guns.
I am not at all happy with the pattern of our military equipment spending. Never have been.
The single biggest risk is that we get a manbaby with progressive dementia who has eliminated all the adults from the room who kept him from doing exceedingly stupid stuff during his first stint.
We need a Plan B.
And that Plan should include an increase in our defence expenditure and a ruthless resetting of the strategic parameters along with the equipment appropriate for those parameters.
Bandt does not like the Budget at all!
What a surprise.
Sceptic @ #315 Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 – 8:45 pm
Skateboard ramp
About time Bandt was managed out
Bandt is threatening to block the COL supports.
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:40 pm
And I’m warming a bit to the early election narrative – all we need is for the RBA to start cutting rates and it could be on.
=========================================================
Sprox – I don’t think they even need to cut rates, it’s more along the lines of not increasing rates.
Inflation predictions are that we trend down later this year, which will lower pressure on RBA rate increases.
I suspect the gov’t might go for an early election to “get in before” any inflation nasties might arise.
ie: a petrol price spike (which is out of the govt’s control)
Assuming an early election (let’s say November 30). What is the latest date it could be called? I think Albanese’s best bet would be for a short campaign.
Ven says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:52 pm
Is this a Goldie Locks economy or what?
Government appears to give everything to everyone but still produce surplus in addition to bringing inflation within RBA band
———————-
Give everything to everyone. Just not true.
Homelessness increasing, people living in cars, tents. Money promised for housing, fast builds, too late, too little.
Jobseeker $55/day is not increased. To 90% of aged pension was a possibility.
No help for the 1 in 6 children living in poverty.
No change in childcare. Pre schoolers whose parents aren’t working or studying don’t get any subsidy. Yet these may be the ones who need it most, those may be living in poor homes, violent homes.
No increased funding for the 64% of children needing more resources and staff in public schools. While religious and independent schools continually receive more than they need.
And religious bodies pay no tax either.
HECs still high, while many gas, fossil fuel companies pay little or no tax.
From Alan Kohler, indicating how Labor refuses to tax our resources properly.
‘ according to the Australia Institute, the royalties paid by the gas industry to the WA government, totalled $670 million in 2023-24, or just 1.5 per cent of the state government’s revenue.
Motor vehicle registration contributes almost twice as much; iron ore royalties nine times as much.
The Australian Taxation Office considers the oil and gas industry to be “systemic non-payers” of tax.
The four biggest LNG producers operating in WA – Chevron, ExxonMobil, Woodside and Shell – made combined income of $55.2 billion in 2021-22 and paid $1.7 billion in corporate income tax and petroleum resource rent tax.
ExxonMobil paid nothing. Exxon, Woodside, Shell and Chevron contributed less to the Commonwealth government than Australia’s beer drinkers, who raised $2.5 billion through the beer excise.’
Disgraceful. As is the surplus when there is so much need in poorer community members.
No proper environment regulations or funding to reduce feral animal numbers.
Defence gets much more funding than those adults and children suffering domestic violence, other cruelty.
Yet Australians attacking other Australians is a greater risk to everyone than some unlikely distant threat. Drummed up by the Liberal Party. Swallowed by Labor.
We can see only wealthier people benefit. Children, young people studying, the environment don’t donate to Labor, so no concern, or funding increase for them.
Jim Chalmers should be ashamed for ignoring children’s needs. Especially as his own children are protected, safe and well looked after financially .
For a federal election this year, September , November , December are the months for it to happen
There hasn’t been a December election for 40 years – and John Howard’s 2007 demise was the last November one.
CommSec @CommSec
“The Energy Price Relief Plan and increases to Commonwealth Rent Assistance are estimated to reduce measured inflation in 2023–24 by ¾ of a percentage point. “
@J J Hall at 8:48pm
The minimum time for campaigning between the dissolution of parliament and election day is 33 days, so a Saturday 30 November election will have to be called on no later than Monday 28 October.
Scottsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:50 pm
I would think a September election is not likely because of footy finals. I equally doubt the chances of a December election. But November 30 being a Saturday is surely appealing to some in the government?
Sceptic @ #315 Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 – 8:45 pm
” Defense spending..
Can someone explain what the funny thing on the bow of this ship is for… do we actually have anything that would us it?”
—————————————–
On the Spanish original the ramp allowed wasier launch of Harrier “jump jets”.
However Australia (RAAF and RAN) does not use those so it is superflouous in current RAN service.
In future it might be used to more easily launch drones, if we develop suitable ones.
Thanks Kirsdarke
Manage out Bandt… good one guys. You should become professionals with that level of intellect. Whats next; the Greens should back labors Gas Policy? What the Greens reach 20 percent plus next election with you guys behind the wheel… /s
The Shovel sums up the reaction of Generation Blue.
“The Shovel@TheShovel·16m
Bloke Who Got Free Uni and Paid $75,000 for $4M House Wonders What’s in Budget for Him
“Things are unbelievably tough at the moment. Try getting a builder to renovate a holiday house in Portsea right now – they’re booked up until 2026!”
What the MSM and other commentators are missing is the $300 energy relief is just the commonwealth contribution to the ever rising impose on Australians.
State and territory governments have and will provide their own rebate relief over the 24-25 financial year. $300 is just one part of the narrative.
Queensland, Victoria and WA have announced their own energy relief rebates so far and the Albanese rebates are just the icing on the cake come the 24-25 financial year.
So far the MSM have failed to factor in the extra rebates into the equation either through incompetence or a deliberate “ fail to acknowledge “ agenda.
The lived experience will decide.
Cheers and definitely the last post this evening.
David Pocock says spend the $300 on household electrification.
I think he meant batteries and solar panels on every roof.
@Sceptic at 8:45pm
I believe the ski-jump bows on HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide are there as emergency landing/take-off means for F-35’s. Even though they’re designated as Landing Helicopter Dock ships, they’re pretty much doing no more and no less than skirting around the world navy rules, since if they were designated as full Aircraft Carriers then they’d be more significant targets and have more attention put on them.
Earliest possible date for a House & Half Senate is Sat 10-Aug-2024.
Could possibly be squeezed in on Sat 3-Aug-2024, if the Governor is in a good mood and signs off the writs.
There are no DD triggers at the moment, so no possibility of a DD election.
For a DD election to occur we need legislation blocked twice after 3 months and also for the DD election to be held before 31-Dec-2024. Reason: Constitution prohibits a DD in the last six months of a Senate term. It’s tucked away in the Constitution somewhere and I can’t remember which Section.
Anyway, put a DD out of the picture.
We’ll have a normal House & Half Senate b/w Sat 10-Aug-2024 & Sat 24-May-2025 (the last possible date JJ Hall).
My gut:
* August 2024 is too early. Labor needs the rebate and tax cuts to kick in, and be “felt”
* Sept is NRL/AFL finals time. Not a good time to pull an election unless you want to lose.
* Oct/Nov & early Dec (say Sat 7-Dec) is looking good. Looking very good I think.
The Parliamentary cycle got out of kilter with the 2016 DD. I believe PM’s prefer to have elections in the latter half of the year, rather than the start of the New Year.
We’ll see the polls come out in the next fortnight, but yes I’m confident to say the gov’t would like an election this year, not 2025.
“David Pocock says spend the $300 on household electrification.
I think he meant batteries and solar panels on every roof.”
The slight problem with Pocock’s well meaning idea is that a solar PV installation without battery averages around $6K. So you can give 20 households a power rebate for the cost of one solar PV home.
I support installing as much solar PV ASAP, but in large scale it will cost money the government does not have right now. The necessary amount of borrowing, given the current debt and interest rate situation, is a non-starter.
Chalmers has not done much in this budget, but he couldn’t do more without risking harming inflation and interest rates. It is a sit tight budget.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:09 pm
Now will Dutton and Taylor pledge to reinstate the original Stage 3 tax cuts (and even build on them) in the budget reply on Thursday?
=============================================
They would be crazy to do that. Labor saved the economically incompetent LNP’s butt by changing the S3 tax cuts from the disastrous original form. In the original form the effect of bracket creep was going to be minimal over time. When your as economically incompetent as the current LNP are, that certainly includes you Angus. The only way they would even get close to balancing a budget would be via bracket creep. Though we know even after 9 years of bracket creep they still couldn’t balance a budget. That was due to their other disastrous policy of wage suppression too. So hope still remains that LNP may one day deliver a budget surplus thanks entirely to Labor’s S3 changes that allows a lot more potential bracket creep. Lets face it the LNP is going to need a lot of it and long period of it occurring to get anywhere close to it though. Particularly if they are expecting Angus to do it.
Chalmers handed down a good liberal party budget.
Processing critical minerals in Australia?
China style environmental catastrophe on the cards?
I fear for the Great Artesian Basin under this Government.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:04 pm
The Parliamentary cycle got out of kilter with the 2016 DD. I believe PM’s prefer to have elections in the latter half of the year, rather than the start of the New Year.
We’ll see the polls come out in the next fortnight, but yes I’m confident to say the gov’t would like an election this year, not 2025.
====================================================
Why?, they will go in May 2025 most likely. Why wouldn’t you go after delivering the next budget?.
Diogenessays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:08 pm
“No assistance for the homeless.”
They don’t vote. They are invisible.
————
They can vote.
“ Tell that to the chaps who went up in Brewster Buffaloes against Zeroes.”
_____
This is brilliant: deflecting from one silly comparison by making an even more silly point. Genius.
Brewster Buffaloes did not represent a failure of government funding. They barely represent a failure in military planning. Any more than the Paul Defiant represented a failure by the Air Ministry to procure ‘the right airplanes’ for the RAF. For every Brewster there are at least two or examples of where the US Planners got it right (P40 War Hawks, P38 Lightenings and P47 Thunderbolts. Same for the Defiant and the Air Ministry (Hurricanes and Spitfires, anyone?). Not to mention the Anglo-American collaboration that resulted in Merlin Engined P51 Mustangs of late 1943-45. …
In fact, unlike the Defiant – which was just a bad idea – the Brewster WAS a good monoplane navy fighter … in 1939-40 period. In fact it still gave good service to the Finnish airforce against the soviets in the Winter War.
In reality, the fate of the Brewster was sealed by the rapid pace of technology in fighter aviation in the period 1939-42 (when they were annihilated in early combats with Japanese navy fighters). In that regard, the Brewster was not alone (by the time they were outclassed by the just introduced Zeros, even the venerable Spitfire Mk V had been well and truly pantsed by the newly introduced FW190As in the European theatre, and Supermarine’s bacon was only saved by the rapid introduction of a interim fix (the two speed, two stage supercharged Merlin 60 series being bolted straight onto the Mk V airframe – thus begating the Mk IX). But even then – mid 1942, the replacements for the Brewsters (the upgraded Wildcat’s) were already in USN service and rapidly replacing them and what is more, the replacements for those planes (the Corsair’s and Hellcat’s) were in late stage development.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Processing critical minerals in Australia?
China style environmental catastrophe on the cards?
I fear for the Great Artesian Basin under this Government.
=====================================================
Which critical mineral mines even occur anywhere near the Great Artesian Basin?.
There is a map of where the Great Artesian Basin occurs in the link below. Though obviously you must know where it is since you made this statement above?.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Artesian_Basin
@Entropy at 9:15pm
I suppose one compelling if cynical reason could be if Trump is elected as US President in November. Put Lord Spudemort on the defensive in trying to convince the Australian electorate to file in line behind him in backing that possible shitshow. Especially in that Trump wouldn’t actually get power until late January.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:15 pm
nadia88says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:04 pm
The Parliamentary cycle got out of kilter with the 2016 DD. I believe PM’s prefer to have elections in the latter half of the year, rather than the start of the New Year.
We’ll see the polls come out in the next fortnight, but yes I’m confident to say the gov’t would like an election this year, not 2025.
====================================================
Why?, they will go in May 2025 most likely. Why wouldn’t you go after delivering the next budget?.
==========================================================================
* The next Budget will need to be brought fwd to mid-late March 2025 (to allow for it’s passage through Parliament, before Parliament shuts down – ie: once writs are issued; no more legislation).
* The next Budget is forecasting a $26.8b deficit. Better to go to an election with a surplus.
And if this budget was produced by the LNP, there’d be calls for knighting Morrison, bigger mugs to be produced, more appointments to the AAT, tax relief for millionaires and a mandate for SMRs in a convenient location near you.
Albanese and Labor have no need to go to an early election, have delivered an imperfect but reasonable budget in the circumstances and the polls remain as good as it gets for Labor.
All the hulabaloo from the many “significant” members of the MSM and the blogertariat together with the huffing and puffing that will emanate from the opposition between now and Thursday nights reply, will be settled in the dust before the weeks out.
Tonight’s response to the budget is quite similar to to the Collingood’s supporters hugging of the opposition player over the fence and throwing the ball back onto the field.
Meaningless nonsense from over excitement and unrealistic expectations.
From The Salvation Army
‘As winter gets closer and the cost-of-living crisis bites harder, more and more Aussies are in urgent need of your help.
They feel they are out of options, with no hope in sight.
But you can help give them a way forward. By ordering a gift now, you’ll be sending immediate and tangible help to Aussies doing it tough. You’ll be helping them through their crisis and giving them the chance of a new beginning.
Please urgently help vulnerable Aussies.’
The Chalmers budget has ignored them. He has deliberately chosen to not help, what Labor government policies should be doing.
People strangely think governments should be run like a household, with money ( the surplus ) put away. Another myth from the Liberals, but swallowed by Labor and some gullible Labor voters.
Cost of living pressures will not be helped by the $300 electricity rebate or small tax refunds.
More permanent measures like solar panels on sunny roofs and batteries supplied and paid for over say 5 years in instalments would be a better cost of living helping plan.
But this would help many lower income Australians. These people are of no interest to Labor as unlikely they will receive a donation from them. Fact.
I think nadia makes a good point, Entropy. Much better to go to an election with successive budget surpluses.
Sprocket
Albo gave $1b to a US company to develop a quantum computer.
You can’t seriously argue he isn’t backing long priced winners. He’s like a drunken gambler betting on Fine Cotton when Makybe Diva is running.
He’s an idiot.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:15 pm
nadia88says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:04 pm
The Parliamentary cycle got out of kilter with the 2016 DD. I believe PM’s prefer to have elections in the latter half of the year, rather than the start of the New Year.
We’ll see the polls come out in the next fortnight, but yes I’m confident to say the gov’t would like an election this year, not 2025.
====================================================
Why?, they will go in May 2025 most likely. Why wouldn’t you go after delivering the next budget?.
==========================================================================
* The next Budget will need to be brought fwd to mid-late March 2025 (to allow for it’s passage through Parliament, before Parliament shuts down – ie: once writs are issued; no more legislation).
* The next Budget is forecasting a $26.8b deficit. Better to go to an election with a surplus.
==============================================
The Frydenberg budget was brought forward to March in 2022. It also was suppose to have a deficit of around $100 billion. It ended up a surplus though under Labor.