Budget eve miscellany (open thread)

Labor maintains a 52-48 lead in the only poll to have emerged in the pre-budget lull.

As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.

• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.

Preselection news:

• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.

InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.

The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,726 comments on “Budget eve miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 8 of 35
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  1. This budget gives the government the option to go early but Albo might want to actually do something for the disadvantaged but this budget probably wont bother the RBA.

  2. There is no mandate for the “made in australia” program, going to an early election and letting the Australian people decide if they support that direction makes sense. Other than that there is no appreciable agenda.

  3. Yeah look I can see why Labor might want to go to an early election, but as pointed out by others, they would seriously be pushing (plus they will want a few cycles to see if they get a bounce, and then to see if it’s an actual bounce etc)

  4. The last December election was 1984. Up until then, early December elections were fairly common. A November date would be more likely.

    Of course whether or not there’s an election will depend upon how the polls look then.

  5. Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    Sprocket

    Albo gave $1b to a US company to develop a quantum computer.

    You can’t seriously argue he isn’t backing long priced winners. He’s like a drunken gambler betting on Fine Cotton when Makybe Diva is running.

    He’s an idiot.
    =======================================================

    A USA company founded by an Australian, Jeremy O’Brien. Which has very strong connections to the UNSW and computer itself will be built in Brisbane.

  6. If we’re getting into election date speculation, the timing of the Queensland (October) and WA (March) elections is part of the mix (especially the former as federal Labor would presumably much rather go after the state election rather than before). Personally I can’t see any reason to go early – leaves the maximum possible time for interest rates to start falling again, amongst other things.

  7. “ I believe the ski-jump bows on HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide are there as emergency landing/take-off means for F-35’s. ”

    ___

    This is wrong.

    The Juan Carlos design was chosen as the reference design for our LHDs by beating out the French Mistral class. The ski ramp is a structural component of the hull design (contra British ski ramp designs, which are merely superstructure ad-ons) and it was discovered that it would have cost more to redesign the bow without the ramp, than simply going ahead with the original design which included it.

    There has been some debate about using the Canberra Class in more multirole configuartions, utilising the ski ramp for both F35 operations and for drones. So far, the RAN brass have resisted the concepts (although back in around 2007 they DID briefly float the idea to the Howard Government of buying 3-4 LHDs in lieu of the original idea of 2 LHDs + 2 ‘Heavy Sea lift’ ships alla the later purchase of HMAS Choules (which was surplus to the RN Auxiliary fleet). Having 3-4 LHDs would have provided additional flexibility to the RAN to combine amphibious operations simultaneously with fixed wing air operations via the acquisition of F35Bs. the idea didn’t go anywhere, and since then there has been overt hostility within defence to the acquisition of F35Bs. Abbott tried to revive the idea in 2013-14, but this was buried quickly.

  8. …..
    ==========================================================================
    * The next Budget will need to be brought fwd to mid-late March 2025 (to allow for it’s passage through Parliament, before Parliament shuts down – ie: once writs are issued; no more legislation).
    * The next Budget is forecasting a $26.8b deficit. Better to go to an election with a surplus.
    ==============================================

    The Frydenberg budget was brought forward to March in 2022. It also was suppose to have a deficit of around $100 billion. It ended up a surplus though under Labor.
    ========================================================
    Exactly my point:

    * Correct: The Budget was brought fwd to March because 2022 was an election year, and there are time constraints for the PM and Treasurer with regards to getting legislation through Parliament.
    * What did you think the public thought of a $100b deficit? We know the results of the May’22 election.

  9. J J Hallsays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:27 pm
    I think nadia makes a good point, Entropy. Much better to go to an election with successive budget surpluses.
    =========================================================

    Better to go with lower interest rates and lower inflation too. According to forecasts they’ll be lower in May 2025 than Dec 2024 though.

    If you go in either Dec 2024 or May 2025. The last two completed budget periods will still be the same and the current budget financial year will have a predicted $26.8b deficit either way too.

  10. nadia88says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:39 pm
    …..
    ==========================================================================
    * The next Budget will need to be brought fwd to mid-late March 2025 (to allow for it’s passage through Parliament, before Parliament shuts down – ie: once writs are issued; no more legislation).
    * The next Budget is forecasting a $26.8b deficit. Better to go to an election with a surplus.
    ==============================================

    The Frydenberg budget was brought forward to March in 2022. It also was suppose to have a deficit of around $100 billion. It ended up a surplus though under Labor.
    ========================================================
    Exactly my point:

    * Correct: The Budget was brought fwd to March because 2022 was an election year, and there are time constraints for the PM and Treasurer with regards to getting legislation through Parliament.
    * What did you think the public thought of a $100b deficit? We know the results of the May’22 election.
    =============================================

    I thought having the Budget in March gave the LNP Government a boost. It let them set the economic narrative going straight into an election campaign. Yes they lost but i think they could of lost by more. If they hadn’t done it this way.

  11. @Andrew Earlwood at 9:39pm

    Okay, fair enough. I was mainly just making a guess since I don’t know much about modern Navy ship design. It just seemed like the most likely reason to me.

  12. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:42 pm
    J J Hallsays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:27 pm
    I think nadia makes a good point, Entropy. Much better to go to an election with successive budget surpluses.
    =========================================================

    “Better to go with lower interest rates and lower inflation too. According to forecasts they’ll be lower in May 2025 than Dec 2024 though.

    If you go in either Dec 2024 or May 2025. The last two completed budget periods will still be the same and the current budget financial year will have a predicted $26.8b deficit either way too.”
    ————

    I would think that an incumbent government campaigning on its record of two successive budget surpluses would be more positive to spin than a likely deficit in the next financial year.

  13. J J Hallsays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    =============================================

    I can’t see why you wouldn’t be able to spin that story in May 2025 just as well as in Dec 2024 though.

  14. Can I ask a quick (dumb) question on the energy bill relief?

    From the ABC reporting:
    “The energy bill relief, which will be $300 for households and $325 for around 1 million small businesses, will go straight onto bills, meaning people won’t receive the cash but will receive a discount.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-14/federal-budget-2024-25-jim-chalmers-energy-bill-rent-relief/103836280

    Our 44 panel (13kW) solar PV + 10kWhr battery sees us with a net positive income from our power supplier across the year. The money we get back from sending spare energy to the grid in summer exceeds any shortfall in winter. So do we get a rebate? Will it increase our check from AGL? Curious.

  15. Entropy.

    Imagine you are the PM.

    * You’ve just watched your Treasurer deliver a “no losers” budget, on the back of a $9B surplus.
    * The Treasurer has announced a $26.8B deficit for next Financial Year
    * The year after, we have a $42B deficit
    * You’re aware you have to go to an election in the next 12 months
    * Say the “no losers” Budget get’s you a poll bounce. Currently the ALP is tracking around 32% Primary. Perhaps they “bounce” to 35% Primary.
    * If you were the PM, you’d think about it. In fact you’d drive down to Gov’t House and beg for it. If your primaries were up, you’d go for it. Any PM would.

    * In 12 months time we will have deficits (we know because we’ve been told this evening by the Treasurer). Perhaps people don’t care, but eventually the deficits, or the debt they create, has to be paid. Gov’t has to then make hard decisions (like what is going on in Victoria with land tax and stamp duty).
    * PM’s don’t want to go to an election with bad news. They want good stuff to tell.

    We’ll have a swag of polls in the next fortnight, starting with Newspoll on Sunday evening and then YouGov/Freshwater/Morgan/Essential & Resolve by mid next week. The PM will digest these figures. He can’t pull an election until Aug-10-2024, so he has plenty of time.

  16. The earliest might be February. They wont want to be too close to Queensland if labor is facing a wipeout and Albo has said its next year.

  17. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 10:02 pm
    J J Hallsays:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 9:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    =============================================

    I can’t see why you wouldn’t be able to spin that story in May 2025 just as well as in Dec 2024 though.
    ———

    Fair enough. I guess I’m really considering the politics. IMO there is a strong political case for the government to go early, given the budget surpluses, that the tax cuts will have made it back to the punters (should be a reasonable positive), and the Queensland election will be done with (negating the potential for voter backlash there).

  18. Entropy

    Yes one US company with links to Australia. One billion dollars on a long shot.

    OC

    Thanks!! Does NSW have any plans in that direction? There are a few about but only in private. Too hard to get in to government departments. Give me an email if NSW isn’t developing one. We are thinking of making it free to all public hospitals in Australia.

  19. I’m a bit surprised there was nothing for the Bragg Proton Beam disaster which was meant to be the first proton beam radiotherapy machine in the southern hemisphere. Until they bought it from a recently bankrupt US company that had never built one. I mean, what could go wrong?

    So we now have a $500m building empty on our health precinct and no prospect of treating those kids with brain cancer.

  20. “So we now have a $500m building empty on our health precinct and no prospect of treating those kids with brain cancer.”

    Sounds liek the same great minds running AUKUS (and the South Rd project).

    Why do so many political decision makers with no background in any form of science or engineering think they understand it after getting a two page briefing note, then feel free to ignore the recommendations? (This comment is aimed at both Labor and Liberal politicians and staffers).

  21. Maybe the early election depends upon what the reserve bank does, which in turn depends upon what inflation does, which depends upon various imponderables like commodity prices, which depend upon…

  22. Lordbain,
    I know that you generally argue from a point of weakness, being a Greens cheerleader here (BTW, how’s the holiday going? ), but I would really appreciate it if you could leave me out of your weak arguments by way of mischaracterising things that I have said, in other words lying about what I said. In this particular instance that I am supposed to have said that the Labor Party had no socialist foundation. Which I never said. However, what I actually said was that Labor is NOW a Social Democratic party. This is the result of many changes to the policy platform over the years of its existence and the calving off of former Labor Party members and idealistic caterwaulers such as Adam Bandt, Max C-M and yourself to inhabit The Greens. That you all still believe in Socialism shows the depth of your understanding of the real world of the 21st century, which is not much. Labor at least acknowledges the world as it is and works within it. The Greens are incapable of seeing beyond the university gates and the Inner City.

  23. You know that ‘American company ‘ that the government wants to lure to Australia (ah, the emotionally charged words freighted in that comment)? It’s actually 2 AUSTRALIAN researchers that went to America to conduct their research when the former Coalition government couldn’t give two hoots about their ground-breaking research, nor a dollar to do it with.

    Sheesh! When did this place begin to not do context!?!

  24. I can just see Dutton opposing all these budget cost of living measures in the near future just like Bandt. Its in their DNA.

  25. C@t

    We plump $1b on a US company to make a quantum computer which only works with AI (I was actually surprised Albo didn’t go for a cold fusion reactor until I remembered he doesn’t like nuclear) and the tens of thousands of AI tech engineers get about $10m a year.

    Visionary!!

    Socrates

    Having watched Utopia, I no longer ask those questions. And the higher up I get, the more I realise we are run by imbecile admin types in departments and the minister is really just their stooge most of the time. They run rings around the minister and pull the puppet strings.

  26. Diogenes says Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 11:51 pm

    Having watched Utopia, I no longer ask those questions. And the higher up I get, the more I realise we are run by imbecile admin types in departments and the minister is really just their stooge most of the time. They run rings around the minister and pull the puppet strings.

    A lot of people forget the rest of what Donald Horne said when he called Australia a lucky country. Decades have past but, with a few exceptions, I think he’s pretty much still correct.

  27. I read that the Master Builders are happy for the money being spent in their area but are worried the budget may be inflationary. Emblematic of a great deal, perhaps the entire country.

  28. There’s a dilemma for the Greens. They can attack Labor to increase their own vote, but attacking Labor could result in the Coalition returning to office and implementing policies the Greens oppose. So what do they do, how do they resolve this dilemma? More importantly, do they even recognise it? Is a seat or two in the HoR worth having Dutton as PM?

  29. @Diogenes – Private industry is developing AI at speed and hardly needs government trying to pick winners and put un-needed subsidies into it. I’m sure there will be money for AI research through research and R&D grant rounds,and money for implementation of AI throughout the public service as people find useful ways to implement it, but it’s a weird thing to get hot under the collar about, that the government is not headlining with some huge bucket of public money tipped into something which doesn’t need it at a time individual households have a greater need, and at a time when people in many areas are more worried about AI causing their jobs to be made redundant than they are excited for the possibilities.

  30. “”… an additional one million Aussies will likely turn their backs on the major parties.”

    “I think that what happened in 2022 will repeat itself again in 2025,” he said.

    “The minor party vote, or people who didn’t vote for the majors, exceeded five million at the last election.”

    Read in news.com.au: https://apple.news/AXgFy8QQZQXWgYfzhR7fXgg”

  31. Trump Trial

    Blanche asked Cohen if he had called Trump a “boorish cartoon misogynist” and “cheeto-dusted cartoon villain.” Cohen responded to both questions with a version of “sounds like something I would say.”

    There is a big problem with asking a witness these questions in front of an educated jury that no doubt would answer the same if asked… Cohn’s answer isn’t an opinion it’s a statement of fact

  32. Because we put in solar we already have a negative electricity bill, going more negative. The 300 dollars I suppose will add to that.

    Now for the next week we have to put up with reporters pretending they are economists.

  33. Still get the feeling the month of October will seal Dutton’s fate whether he remains the leader of the federal liberal party
    Dutton is likely gone
    Federal lib/nats combined primary vote still stuck on 36% or below in opinion polling
    if there is strong evidence show interest rates cuts are about to happen
    Qld state election , if it looks like a slim majority or minority LNP government , or even if Labor government somehow holds on, in a slim majority or minority

  34. I think after all the pre-budget hype and series of ‘tests’ for Jim Chalmers, people feel a little meh this morning.

    I didn’t watch the budget speech but this morning’s reports are all mixed. Personally I never benefit from budgets as I’m just not in the demographics that typically get targeted.

  35. Riley Rogerson
    @riley_rogerson
    ·
    Follow
    Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) not pulling any punches re: Speaker Mike Johnson appearing at Trump’s NYC trial.

    “I don’t find anything unusual about a fundamentalist theocrat who thinks the Bible is the supreme law of the land attending the legal proceedings of an adjudicated sexual assailant and world- class fraudster and con-man for cooking the books to cover up hush money payments he made to a porn star to
    conceal his adulterous affair,” Rep.
    Jamie Raskin (D-MD) wrote to the Beast.
    “Do You”

    The one takeaway from these utterances including the likes of Morrison & Dutton is just how unchristian Christian’s can be

  36. The numpty book banning council is still debating the big issues.

    Cumberland City councillors will instead debate whether the book should be placed in the adult or children section of its libraries as Wednesday night’s meeting is expected to attract protests by groups both supportive of and against the ban.

    Surely a book so dangerous to children that it requires banning would’ve been read

    by so many people who live in Cumberland?

    Sarkis said library staff told him the book was acquired in February 2019, and in the five years it was on the shelves, it was borrowed only once.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-asked-every-cumberland-councillor-about-the-same-sex-book-ban-here-s-what-they-said-20240514-p5jdh4.html

    *facepalm

  37. Google made a big mistake recently. The company accidentally erased the private Google Cloud account of a $125 billion Australian pension fund, UniSuper.
    The result: more than half a million UniSuper fund members had no access to their accounts for about a week, The Guardian reported last week. UniSuper had a backup account with another cloud provider, and service was restored May 2.
    “This is an isolated, ‘one-of-a-kind occurrence’ that has never before occurred with any of Google Cloud’s clients globally,” Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian and UniSuper CEO Peter Chun said in a joint statement obtained by The Guardian May 8. “This should not have happened. Google Cloud has identified the events that led to this disruption and taken measures to ensure this does not happen again.”

  38. The local government in New Caledonia has called for calm after violence broke out during protests to changes to the constitution being debated in the French National Assembly, which are denounced by supporters of independence for the overseas territory in the Pacific.
    Violence broke out on the edge of a demonstration organised Monday by pro-independence supporters against changes to the constitution that would allow more French residents to vote in elections in New Caledonia, which independence supporters fear will dilute the vote of indigenous Kanak.

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