Proposed new federal boundaries have been published today for both Western Australia and Victoria.
Victoria
The Victorian proposal is here. The proposed seat for abolition is Higgins, reflecting under-enrolment in the inner eastern areas of Melbourne. Below are my estimates of the new vote shares (you’ll have to click on the image for it to be legible), which can be compared with Ben Raue’s similar exercise. Note that there are three seats where the two-candidate preferred has to be split three ways: Melbourne is to take a chunk of Higgins, for which there are no ALP vs GRN numbers; Goldstein gets parts of Hotham and Isaacs, where there is no TEAL vs LIB; and Kooyong gets a big piece of Higgins, ditto.
The best news for Labor is that Menzies now has a notional Labor margin of 0.7% (0.3% by Ben Raue’s reckoning) compared with an actual Liberal margin of 0.7%. Beyond having lost Higgins, the news is bad for them in Chisholm, where their margin is down from 6.4% to 3.3% by Ben Raue’s reckoning and 2.8% by mine, and Wills, where the Greens have been handed the gift of Carlton North and Fitzroy North from Melbourne, cutting the Labor margin over them from 8.6% to 4.2%. However, their 0.7% improvement in Dunkley might prove handy one day.
At first glance, I would imagine that Monique Ryan would be pleased not merely to have had her electorate maintained, but to have had it supplemented with the inner urban end of Higgins and to have lost territory in the east to Menzies and Chisholm. Goldstein teal MP Zoe Daniel’s gains from Hotham and Isaacs are perhaps less helpful, though that is harder to read.
Western Australia
The proposed sixteenth seat for the state is called Bullwinkel and encompasses eastern suburbs of Perth and the Avon Valley further afield, taking much of the territory of Hasluck along with parts of Swan, Burt, Canning, Durack and O’Connor. The new seat has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%, but in the absence of a defending sitting member and given the unusual nature of the 2022 result, the Liberals would be favoured to win. However, its creation has given Labor a helpful 4.7% boost in Hasluck, which loses its most conservative territory to the new seat. Andrew Hastie is a loser out of the redistribution in Canning, but is presumably not in too much danger. Labor has been favoured slightly in Tangney and Swan, Liberal in Cowan. The changes are unlikely to make much difference to teal independent Kate Chaney in Curtin.
Those WA numbers look very good for Labor. Probably close to best case scenario. They will surely be happy there.
Over in Victoria not so good for Labor. I can them struggling in Wills and Macnamara on those borders, plus the loss of Higgins. Menzies and Deakin may not be enough compensation (and they may not win there)
Very ugly borders indeed for Labor in Wills, in addition to the solid Greens territory in the South most of the northern bits that were cut out were the whiter areas as well, areas that presumably would be less moved by the Palestine issue.
Great choice of name.
I don’t know what numbers Conor is looking at.
I am expecting the Liberals to pick up 3 seats at the next Federal election in WA. A 60% increase in representation. If only every State Liberal Party could do that. And that will take them within striking distance of a few more in the next election.
They’re seriously proposing a seat called Bullwinkel and didn’t take the opportunity to rename Brand to Rockingham? That would’ve been perfect for referencing a certain cartoon moose and squirrel. Oh well.
But more seriously, if these are the seats that end up going to the election, Bullwinkel will be a very hotly contested seat as well as Tangney. Labor would also be happy that Hasluck seems more secure.
Also Kate Cheney would be happy that there seems to be minimal changes to Curtin.
Not so good for Labor in Victoria, losing Higgins is a blow and Chisholm becoming more marginal makes it harder for them there.
Someone’s having a laugh with the name. I mean, I’m laughing.
If the AEC renamed Capricornia to Rockhampton that’d be fantastic.
Even better, the respective members become PM and Deputy PM.
Time for a change.org petition…
Kirsdarke
Snap!
Antony: https://antonygreen.com.au/proposed-federal-boundaries-released-for-victoria/
@Rewi
Maybe the libs could run candidates for those seats named Boris and Natasha?
Where in the heck did the name Bullwinkel come from?
The Greens will be stoked at the Victorian changes, but the flow-on boundary changes seem to help Labor against the Liberals further out and in regional areas, aside from the abolition of Higgins.
I’m really confused as to how the new borders of Corangamite are enough for their own seat, given that it doesn’t seem to contain any population centres apart from Bannockburn.
@Rebecca
It’s named for Vivian Bullwinkel, an Army Nurse who served in WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivian_Bullwinkel
It’s from Vivian Bullwinkle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivian_Bullwinkel
A fairly worthy name for an electorate, but perhaps one in Victoria rather than in WA (in fact it has been suggested in Victoria before)
Rebecca says:
Friday, May 31, 2024 at 1:44 pm
I come from a family of nurses – including ones who were awarded for bravery in WWII. She is one of our great true heroes.
LT COL Vivian Bulwinkle Vivian Statham, AO, MBE, ARRC, ED
“Vivian Bullwinkel, sole survivor of the 1942 Banka Island massacre, was born on 18 December 1915 at Kapunda, South Australia. She trained as a nurse and midwife at Broken Hill, New South Wales, and began her nursing career in Hamilton, Victoria, before moving to the Jessie McPherson Hospital in Melbourne in 1940.
In 1941, wanting to enlist, Bullwinkel volunteered as a nurse with the RAAF but was rejected for having flat feet. She was, however, able to join the Australian Army Nursing Service; assigned to the 2/13th Australian General Hospital (2/13th AGH), in September 1941 she sailed for Singapore. After a few weeks with the 2/10th AGH, Bullwinkel rejoined the 13th AGH in Johor Baharu.
Japanese troops invaded Malaya in December 1941 and began to advance southwards, winning a series of victories and, in late January 1942, forcing the 13th AGH to evacuate to Singapore. But the short-lived defence of the island ended in defeat, and, on 12 February, Bullwinkel and 65 other nurses boarded the SS Vyner Brooke to escape the island.
Two days later, the ship was sunk by Japanese aircraft. Bullwinkel, 21 other nurses and a large group of men, women, and children made it ashore at Radji Beach on Banka Island; they were joined the next day by about 100 British soldiers. The group elected to surrender to the Japanese, and while the civilian women and children left in search of someone to whom they might surrender, the nurses, soldiers, and wounded waited.
Some Japanese soldiers came and killed the men, then motioned the nurses to wade into the sea. They then machine-gunned the nurses from behind. Bullwinkel was struck by a bullet and pretended to be dead until the Japanese left. She hid with a wounded British private for 12 days before deciding once again to surrender. They were taken into captivity, but the private died soon after. Bullwinkel was reunited with survivors of the Vyner Brooke. She told them of the massacre, but none spoke of it again until after the war lest it put Bullwinkel, as witness to the massacre, in danger. Bullwinkel spent three and half years in captivity; she was one of just 24 of the 65 nurses who had been on the Vyner Brooke to survive the war.
Bullwinkel retired from the army in 1947 and became Director of Nursing at Melbourne’s Fairfield Hospital. She devoted herself to the nursing profession and to honouring those killed on Banka Island, raising funds for a nurses’ memorial and serving on numerous committees, including a period as a member of the Council of the Australian War Memorial, and later president of the Australian College of Nursing.
In the decades following the war, Bullwinkel received many honours and awards, including the Florence Nightingale Medal, an MBE and the AO. She married in 1977 and returned to Banka Island in 1992 to unveil a shrine to the nurses who had not survived the war. Vivian Bullwinkel died on 3 July 2000.”
And those making the Rocky and Bullwinkle jokes – grow up.
Anybody who makes fun of the name Bullwinkel needs to have a good hard look at themselves.
It’s probably best not to make jokes about Vivian Bullwinkel, as she survived a horrendous ordeal at the hands of the Japanese: just how horrendous, I don’t think we will ever entirely know. But one can surmise.
After the war she somehow was able to get on with her life and contributed much to the health sector.
I agree with FUBAR: excellent choice of name for the new electorate.
The question for Labor in Victoria would be, what happens to the present MP for Higgins, and on the Liberal side Katie Allen was preselected to recontest her old seat earlier in the year too.
Also Bannockburn is growing pretty quickly as a satellite town for Geelong, it’s forecast to have around 10,000 people by 2036, so they probably took that into account.
Corangamite would still also cover the southern suburbs of Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula as well.
Oh, my bad – I misread the old vs new Corangamite map and was looking at the wrong thing.
Rebecca
You should go for a drive down the Surfcoast one day.
Torquay is massive.
Wills is probably going to be more of a contest than it has been. But it is also reducing the areas of traditionally Labor that might be more pro-Palestinian.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Friday, May 31, 2024 at 2:00 pm
The question for Labor in Victoria would be, what happens to the present MP for Higgins, and on the Liberal side Katie Allen was preselected to recontest her old seat earlier in the year too.
———————————
Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah could run in Kooyong or Melbourne and Katie Allen could run in Macnamara.
To those inclined to stomp on good natured levity, get knotted.
Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah could run in Kooyong or Melbourne and Katie Allen could run in Macnamara.
If so, both of them have zero chance of getting reelected in 2025
You never know, Ananda-Rajah could be a good fit for Melbourne, and the redistribution has narrowed the gap somewhat between Labor and the Greens. She would be unlikely to actually defeat Bandt, but if he were to retire (admittedly unlikely in 2025), then she’d be in with a shot.
She has a hyphenated surname for a start and that seems popular in Greens circles.
Ananda-Rajah is a Labor Right property investor who has staunchly supported Israel, she is close to a uniquely bad fit for Melbourne
I must agree with FUBAR on this one. Anyone who knows Vivian Bullwinkel’s story would appreciate that she is a very deserving choice of person to name a Federal electorate after. She deserves respect.
As for the redistribution, I take it Labor will lose one seat in Victoria, likely gain one in WA, risks losing another to the Greens in Vic, and the and Teal seats look safe?
@kirksdale – the greens have never lost a single member seat that they won at a general election, in any federal, state/territory election.
It seems unlikely they’ll start with Melbourne in 2027/8
@GodlessHeathen
Ah, I see. In that case she might have better luck running for Deakin or Menzies, or wait to replace a current Labor Right member pondering retirement.
She did a good job for Labor in winning Higgins in the first place so it’d be poor form to dismiss her future career if they do end up abolishing the seat.
Kirsdarke
“Still a problem if surety is required?”
Agreed. Are any sitting Vic Labor MPs or Senators near retirement?
@Socrates
Unlikely with the Victorian Senate, Labor’s 4 Senators from there started their terms relatively recently.
Mark Dreyfus is getting a bit long in years though, turning 68 this year and he’s in the Labor Right. If he wants to vacate Isaacs (which he has held since 2007) then Michelle Ananda-Rajah could go there and it probably wouldn’t upset too many people who want the factions to be at peace.
Is the new seat in WA Bullwinkel anywhere near Rocky (Rockingham)
I’ll get my coat…………….
@Algernon
Unfortunately not, but we’d probably best not focus on the comedic value on the matter since it’s named after Vivian Bullwinkel, who was a heroic Australian Army Nurse that served in WW2 and suffered much while being held prisoner by the Japanese, then did further great things when she survived and returned home.
It’s not what the average Australian voter would think at first, but probably best to be mindful of that. I reacted with disbelief when I first saw the new seat name and immediately thought of the moose and squirrel show today and joked about it, but then I looked into the reasoning behind the name and thought that jokes like that are probably not warranted upon reflection.
In the long term it might be a good thing to spread the news about Vivian Bullwinkel, who I did not know of until today, even if most people immediately think of the cartoon moose when they first hear that name.
Major boost for Zoe Daniel v Liberals – now includes ALP area around Highet.
Small but crucial boost for Greens in Macnamara – inclusion of Windsor.
Major loss for Monique Ryan v. Liberals- replaced leafy eastern family sububs with Toorak.
Major boost for Green Samantha Rattnam in Wills v. ALP – loss of Glenroy and liberalish Oak Park for ultra-Green inner where she lives.
I am also happy to pile into the pig ignorant, or just plain ignorant, who quibble at the the name Bullwinkel……
As an earlier poster has already provided a resume of her heroics and fame of this woman, it is fitting she be honored in this way I can add nothing further.
She eventually married and I knew of her in her married name….though I don’t think she had any children.
As an aside to the barbaric treatment of the Japanese of many prisoners, it seems from later summation of the nurses on Banka that they were also likely raped…..
For those in the Eastern States, years and years ago, there were radio programmes about the whole horrible outcome of the above nurses.
I am willing to accept, with time being what it is, that what happened 80 odd years ago is now lost in the mists of time, and to that extent I withdraw my comment about ‘pig’ ignorance and replace it with ignorant stupidity….
I suppose I can sort of forgive those a generation (or two or three) younger than me for not knowing about Vivian Bullwinkel.
But without going back and checking I recall the announcement of the new seat and the name explained early on who she was.
But typical of some here and many elsewhere people never get past the headline and the first paragraph before firing up with their sneers.
Just think a bit before you press send.
She was actually my Grandmother’s boss at one stage.
@Rossmcg
In return, perhaps maybe consider that those of us that snorted in mirth at the idea of “The Member for Bullwinkel” did so with no intention of dishonoring Lt. Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel, who most of us at the end of the day have read up on what she did in her life and why she should be honoured.
Honestly this feels like a situation where the AEC creates a new division called Sonic-Hedgehog and it turns out that there was an actual honorable Australian figure called John Sonic-Hedgehog and people laugh about it and then are forced to deferential silence afterward.
Hasluck – where I am enrolled – would become significantly safer for Labor. Good news for Tania Lawrence and WA Labor in general. I would continue to be enrolled in Hasluck, so am relieved.
My family has a personal connection to the Army Nurses and will be very deeply touched by the naming of the new seat.
One time, on behalf of my family, I spent several hours at Kranji Cemetery in Singapore, where the losses of allied personnel, including the Army Nurses, is memorialised. That January morning – so hot and so silent – will be with me for as long as I draw breath. The day was the 65th anniversary of the fall of Singapore. On that day it was possible to imagine the attack coming across the causeway and up the poorly defended slope where the cemetery is now laid out. Courage, loss, futility, desolation and remembrance. And so hot under the equatorial sun. So hot and silent.
As a millennial these Bullwinkel jokes are going right over my head.
Come next redistribution I’m sure NSW and Victoria will both be getting a seat back given both take most of the increase in population. Yes I realise only enrolled voters count, my comment stands.
As a Gen X’er, reference to “Millennial” goes right over my head. You are Gen Y and always will be.
It is actually total population that counts in determining the seats for each state. Voters per seat is done on enrolled voters. I am just not clear who gets counted in “total population”
Michael McCormack’s seat of Riverina could be renamed Bogan, to honour the hamlet of Bogan Gate
Apart from her property investments and support for Israel, I remember Michelle Ananda-Rajah for her attack on the Astrazeneca Covid-19 vaccine, a vaccine the that has now been superseded but was timely in its arrival, and was responsible for saving many lives.
dutch to english
bull=bull
winkel=shop
Let’s hope that future MPs are steady hands lest the bull-in-a-china shop meme takes off.
Other than that, excellent choice of a person after whom to name an electorate. She was a great Australian.
Can someone explain to me why the AEC took a seat away from WA at the last election [Stirling] and now they are giving them one back only one election later ? Is this unusual or is my memory fried more than I thought.
Ananda-Rajah will have to pack up her stuff in Cant berra and go back to property portfolio’s . She hasnt exactly set the world on fire, albeit from the back benches. She only got the gig in the first place because the Lib Katie Allen was on the nose aka KK in Fowler for Labor. Oh and the two would be Independents who wanted to ‘share’ the job in Higgins will have to take their fantasy elsewhere now.
@Sandman
The seat allocations are based on relative population numbers. WA fell just short of 16 seat quotas at the previous determination and so lost a seat. It has had higher than average population growth since therefore regained a seat.
The Electoral Commissioner’s last seat determination can be found here:
https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2023G00879/latest/text
It does seem odd for a state to lose and then gain a seat (or vice versa) in such quick succession and that has happened with both Victoria and WA over the last two terms, and must be a trifle irritating for the MPs involved and those working towards their reelection, as well as the voters in these electorates. I feel like perhaps the guidelines re seat allocation should be a bit less sensitive to these sorts of population changes, especially when they are happening during unusual times like the pandemic.
@High Street, thank you for the correction on population used. Emboldens me saying Vic and NSW will both get a seat back.
With respect to the polling across all the federal electorates the published report here on the Poll Bludger, mention was made that the inner city Brisbane electorate currently held by the Greens was at risk of being lost to the ALP at the next federal election. Much of the Brisbane electorat lies within the Brisbane City Council Wards of Central and Hamilton. At this year’s local government election in Queensland, the Greens increased their vote in those two wards (as well as in other suburban wards.
In the Central Ward, retained by the LNP with a vote of 46.7% (-1.7% from the previous poll); the Greens vote of 35.5% was an increase of +8.0%. The ALP’s vote declined by 6.3% to 17.8%. The latter was about 50% of the Greens primary vote. In the Hamilton Ward the LNP polled 63.2% : a decrease of -0.1%; the Greens vote increased by 3.5% to 19.9%; the ALP vote declined by 3.0% to finish third on 16.9%. If this observable trend for the Greens eating into the ALP’s primary vote is repeated at the next federal election in the seat of Brisbane I would think the Green’s have a better than small chance of holding on to Brisbane as well as their two other Brisbane seats of Griffith and Ryan.
With respect to the polling across all the federal electorates the published report here on the Poll Bludger, mention was made that the inner city Brisbane electorate currently held by the Greens was at risk of being lost to the ALP at the next federal election. Much of the Brisbane electorat lies within the Brisbane City Council Wards of Central and Hamilton. At this year’s local government election in Queensland, the Greens increased their vote in those two wards (as well as in other suburban wards.
In the Central Ward, retained by the LNP with a vote of 46.7% (-1.7% from the previous poll); the Greens vote of 35.5% was an increase of +8.0%. The ALP’s vote declined by 6.3% to 17.8%. The latter was about 50% of the Greens primary vote. In the Hamilton Ward the LNP polled 63.2% : a decrease of -0.1%; the Greens vote increased by 3.5% to 19.9%; the ALP vote declined by 3.0% to finish third on 16.9%. If this observable trend for the Greens eating into the ALP’s primary vote is repeated at the next federal election in the seat of Brisbane I would think the Green’s have a better than small chance of holding on to Brisbane as well as their two other Brisbane seats of Griffith and Ryan.
No Problem, @MadHouse.
@Asha I think our constitution drafters did a pretty decent job, given the constraints (I think the relevant provision is in the Constitution).
On a related matter, I regularly give thanks to those that drafted and passed the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. We are very lucky.