The three-weekly YouGov federal poll records little change on last time, with two-party preferred steady at 50-50 from primary votes of Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are also unchanged at 41% approval and 53% disapproval, but Peter Dutton is down four on approval to 38% and up three on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 47-36, out from 44-37. The poll also finds an 84-16 split in favour of the proposition that workers have a right to strike for better wages and job security. It was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
There are also two state voting intention results from RedBridge Group, both combining two waves of polling in February and May:
• As reported in the Herald Sun, a poll for Victoria credits Labor with lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 in the last such poll in March, contrasting with the recent bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result which suggested the Coalition had moved into the lead. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 38% (steady) and Greens 14% (up four). Kevin Bonham on Twitter notes that these primary votes suggest a 53-47 result based on a crude application of flows from the last election, but pollster Kos Samaras says the cumulative “others” pool has moved leftwards because “most of the right-wing minor party votes have shifted to the Coalition”. A full accounting of the results from the pollster should be along shortly. (UPDATE: The pollster has published the full result together with a full account of its “others” pool).
• The second poll such poll is for Queensland, and it maintains Labor’s run of diabolical polling there ahead of an election in October. The Liberal National Party is credited with a two-party lead of 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 28%, LNP 47% and Greens 12%. The poll has a sample of 880, and is somewhat at odds with a union-commissioned uComms polling provided last week to The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column, conducted on May 14 from a sample of 2400, which found Labor had gone from 26.9% to 30.0% from an earlier poll April, while the LNP had gone from 35.1% to 33.7%, the Greens from 13.0% to 10.9% and One Nation from 10.0% to 5.2%, with undecided down from 16% to 10%.
Latest news related to the various federal redistributions in progress, following last week’s publication of draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the proposed new federal boundaries for New South Wales, which will involve the abolition of one of the state’s 47 seats, will be published “around lunchtime” on Friday.
• Suggestions the redistribution proposal for Victoria may have strengthened the Liberals in Kooyong prompted a flurry of speculation concerning a comeback by Josh Frydenberg, with Josh Butler of The Guardian reporting on divided opinions within the party. Seemingly the only one to go on the record was soon-to-retire Queensland member Karen Andrews, who spoke approvingly of the idea, which would potentially have been helpful to a Frydenberg comeback given one of the chief obstacles is the optics involved in deposing an already preselected female candidate, Amelia Hamer. Antony Green was initially invoked as having calculated the seat had been strengthened for the Liberals, which many had taken as read given blue-ribbon Toorak was part of the area to be gained from abolished Higgins, but he shortly clarified it was not possible to infer independent member Monique Ryan’s level of support in areas where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022. The matter was shortly resolved in any case when Frydenberg declared his support for Hamer. Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported Frydenberg had commissioned Freshwater Strategy to poll the seat “several times”, with party sources saying the results “didn’t indicate he’d win”.
• The proposed abolition of Higgins has prompted suggestions defeated former Liberal member Katie Allen, who had again been preselected for the seat, will instead contest Chisholm, despite the party already having a candidate for that seat in Monash councillor Theo Zographos. Josh Ferguson of The Australian reports the party will challenge the abolition of Higgins in its submission in response to the proposed new boundaries. The report further says a political foundation established by the seat’s former member, Peter Costello, to help fund campaigning in the seat “is being eyed by Liberal bean counters to help stave off a feared collapse in fundraising capacity for the party”. A Liberal source is quoted saying the fund was established to ensure the money “was not ultimately seized by a factional rival”.
ShellBell
I like the way they are giving the opponents 30 points start, just to show how dominant the midfield can be when wound up
Sandmansays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:59 pm
On Costello, I often wonder if the Libs do smug look workshops or if it is just natural for those with a deep held assurance from God and/or their genetic inheritance that they are truly ‘born to rule’. Morrison had that same smarmy smuirk, but Latham had it too come to think of it. Costello will move on without a moment of reflection. Has he been formally charged on that camera man assault ? I didnt bother following that story.
———————
Walked past Costello one day in Collins Street and was surprised by how tall he is and he has very active facial expressions.
B. S. Fairman
…
Was that just MSM spin, like Trump planning a Reich, and Dutts being a potential dictator?
Costello always thought he was leadership material, but he wanted to get it the easy way. He could’ve challenged Howard ahead of the 2007 election, but instead trailed behind him during the campaign as a kind of 2-for-1 bridesmaid.
In the end both their political careers came to a screeching halt.
Seadog
I’ve got no time for Costello but having the self awareness to know you aren’t leadership material doesn’t equate to lacking balls. If only some other pretenders who became PM were as honest with themselves we would be be better off now.
————————
Yep real leadership is accepting your limitations but he probably should have pushed Howard out the door after the workchoices debacle and it became clear Howard wasn’t going to hand him the leadership.
Keating nailed Costello perfectly while he was still PM. There’s video footage on Youtube of the colourful parliamentary exchange. Good times.
Christopher Dore, the former editor of The Australian who left under a cloud and now works for Seven West Media for its online thing The Nightly, had the sharpened axe ready the other day after the airport incident.
https://thenightly.com.au/opinion/the-front-dore-peter-costello-has-always-had-a-problem-with-journalists-this-blow-up-should-not-surprise-c-14943134
Even allowing for the fact that Dore is writing about the chairman (as he was) of his employer’s commercial rival, he hits the mark.
I have read before about Costello’s wont as Treasurer to complain to the bosses about journalists. The idea that a man with such little regard for the media could head up one of the country’s major publishers was always a bit of puzzle.
Yes rossmcg Costello is the first and only politician to complain about his press coverage. Good point!
Sprocket
Questions will have to be answered if Heeney, Gulden and Warner are not joint winners of the Brownlow
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 7:08 pm
B. S. Fairman
…
Was that just MSM spin, like Trump planning a Reich, and Dutts being a potential dictator?
===================================================
Trump wanting a “unified Reich” was his social media post. The MSM just reported what his website had posted, no spin involved.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/after-backlash-trump-pulls-social-media-post-with-reference-unified-reich-2024-05-21/
Shellbell they should be safe this year. Lachie had a bad start to the season.
Sydney are looking the goods this year and injuries have impacted the Collywobbles.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 6:30 pm
Suggest you listen to this..
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-lawfare-podcast/id498897343?i=1000658269365
“ “No, I agree with that entirely. And I think in the end, you’re talking about class E felonies here, first time offender, all these things that, you know, sort of, you know, argue for leniency. And then you’ve got Trump’s just unbridled remorselessness and his potential for, as you just said, for doing something really outrageous.
And so at the end of the day, it seems like it’s up to him. You know, if he does something really crazy, there is a possibility that there might be sort of a, you know, a quicker imposition of sentence. But I think all signs point to this.
There’s no way that Judge Marshawn is going to seek to enforce a penalty before appeal. And then if Trump gets reelected, that sort of opens up another issue of what do you do? You’re not going to imprison a sitting president.
It’s just not going to happen.
So I think the more likely scenario by which Trump ends up jailed is actually not the enforcement of a sentence. It’s the serial violation of court orders leading to contempt because Justice Marshawn very clearly said the last time, look, these fines clearly aren’t doing it”
Only way Trump finish in goal is if he violates the gag order…
Badthinker – It was very widely known in Press circles that Costello wanted the top job. He was briefing journalists about when he thought was going to get the job. Then it never happened.
Don’t stress Entropy.
Mavis is very particular in who he chooses for alleged rude behaviour.
Never has criticised FUBAR for his Cockwomble bizzo and other assorted insults.
But then, FUBAR has been around a little longer than you, so you are a very naughty newcomer according to Mavis!
Keep up the good work!
Good to see you back Sandman.
Another voice of reason will never be missed here!
I don’t understand why a POTUS can’t be sentenced to prison if they are found guilty, sentenced and fail to do the honorable thing and resign. Where is the democracy in that?
This is such bullshit that I don’t feel I can allow it to pass unremarked.
Confessions
Keating’s best put down of Costello came on, I think , the ABC’s Lateline.
Asked about some criticism from Costello he described him as “all tip and no iceberg”
Re: NACC public vs private hearings.
Those advocating the Star Chamber approach have yet to address the obvious issue – how does “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong” find redress after being investigated, trialed, cleared, but can never work again because any future employer would deem her a “risk” from a surface google search? People just want to salivate over the gory details rather than seek procedural fairness.
Specifically on Robodebt – the NACC and NSW ICAC have the same powers – neither can prosecute, only refer to the prosecutors. What are you expecting them to do; re-discover everything a Royal Commission has already covered? What a waste of time and money that would be.
‘Badthinker says:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 6:44 pm
Abandoning 43%/2030 will require diplomacy, which Australia is good at.
…’
=====================
Blancmange Birmo? Good at diplomacy?
The problem is that no-one in the Coalition seems to have figured out beforehand that they can’t abandon 43/30 and still claim that they are still in the Paris Accords.
Just not possible.
I retract that comment if you haven’t already William.
Apologies to Mavis.
I could have worded it a lot better.
Badthinker @ #696 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 6:44 pm
Sure we are. Just ask Timor-Leste 🙁
Rossmcg:
And this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q&ab_channel=JemClarke
A football commentator just praised a player for being “ambidextrous on both sides”.
A candidate for “Tautology of the Week”.
Confessions
The best thing abt those Keating clips is watching the liberal backbenchers laughing along with the government members.
Rossmcg @ #730 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 7:47 pm
Kevin Andrews was right there with them.
”A football commentator just praised a player for being “ambidextrous on both sides”.
The sort of thing that the late Rugby League commentator Rex Mossop would have said.
Chris Uhlmann in the Oz:
“Let’s boil the geopolitics down a bit. Australia is nude, lathered up in the shower and has dropped the soap. A curious Comanchero lifer has appeared at the open door.”
What a bizarre analogy.
What a bizarre analogy.
_____________
Seminary experience?
“Nine Entertainment Co chairman and former treasurer Peter Costello has resigned from his role and stepped down from the company’s board.”
Did he jump, or was he pushed? 😉
davidwh says Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 7:29 pm
I thought doing the honorable thing implied taking a pistol out of the draw….
Abandoning 43%/2030 will require diplomacy, which Australia is good at.
Sure we are. Just ask Timor-Leste
Might have added … so long as an L-NP Governent is doing the diplomacy.
From memory, the latest from Labor on the Timor Gap gasfield, Australia develops the field, builds the infrastructure, Timor-Leste gets 90% of the profits and the right to supply labour to hungry farmers in Australia in return for who knows what?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-50-billion-gas-deal-australia-hopes-will-keep-china-quiet-20240531-p5jidz.html
Pueo
Costello had apparently indicated he would step down later in the year. Probably after a trip to Paris for the olympics which Nines has rights for.
So I assume recent events, the sexual harassment revelations and the airport incident, made him and his fellow directors decide it was time.
For those interested in defence boats
https://www.theage.com.au/national/fire-danger-and-bits-from-bunnings-50m-border-boats-beset-with-problems-20240605-p5jjdu.html?btis
Bizzcan at 7:32 pm:
Re: NACC public vs private hearings.
Those advocating the Star Chamber approach have yet to address the obvious issue – how does “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong” find redress after being investigated, trialed, cleared, but can never work again because any future employer would deem her a “risk” from a surface google search? People just want to salivate over the gory details rather than seek procedural fairness.
———————-
This is a very good point, and one that gets pushed to one side by a lot of people who expect the NACC to do all of its work in public.
I would observe, however, that the rightful concerns you’ve identified for “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong” didn’t seem to trouble too many here when it was “Gladys from Parliament in Sydney” in the firing line.
Oh, the agonies “Gladys from Parliament in Sydney” must have suffered as compared to “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong”.
I really weep for Gladys from Parliament.
BK, snap. Mine from this am.
‘Boerwar says:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 11:48 am
Uhlman may well be channeling the zeitgeist of his time in a roman catholic seminary.
Let’s face it. Uhlman’s curious ‘Comanchero’ might well be standing in, metaphorically, for a roman catholic priest in any normal person’s fever dream about world politics.
But we don’t really know.’
”
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:08 pm
Now neither Liberal nor Labor are committed to the Paris goal of keeping global warming below 2 degrees, let alone 1.5.Labor’s cries Paris crocodile tears while opening more coal and gas mines, while the Liberals don’t even pretend to care.— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) June 9, 2024
Labor’s weak targets are not science based and are consistent with the planet boiling by more than two degrees, say the experts: https://t.co/K4mfr4Ndi5— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) June 9, 2024
Politicians should listen more to science experts and less to their political donors.
”
Bandt is actually talking like Irene. You don’t need any other proof than this. Thanks Rex for exposing Irene. 🙂
BK @ #734 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 8:00 pm
It’s truly bizarre.
What has happened to certain press gallery journalists? PVO is now writing for a shitrag, and Uhlmann is doing…whatever it is that he’s doing.
The motor driving change in the energy sector/s – as in nearly all others – is shifts in real wages. Real wages will be increased by the proliferation and elaboration of renewable energy technologies. Real wages will be increased by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (retirement of obsolete ICE vehicles). Real wages – defined broadly – will be increased by measures to reduce pollution and protect scarce resources.
These things are inexorable. The Reactionaries are trying to resist the tide of history. Such eejits. They deserve to be thrashed again and again.
Interestingly, Dutton has clearly given the electoral finger to past-Liberal voters in Teal-held seats. These voters have no reason at all to renew their subscriptions to Reactionary politics. Essentially, he has written off Reactionary chances of winning a federal election any time soon. No Teal MP could realistically prefer the Reactionaries to Labor.
Hopefully this will preface the dissolution of the Liberals after a long, agonising and tormented decline into electoral oblivion.
Been Theresays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm
Don’t stress Entropy.
“so you are a very naughty newcomer according to Mavis!”
========================================================
I quite like Mavis as a poster. So not to worried about her? giving me a clip across the ears. It was the newcomer angle and whether the post was implying there is a expected higher level of deference expected from newbies versus the establishment. I was interested if Mavis might clarify this but alas i think she? has retired for the night.
Bandt needs to explain how he is going to get us to Zero Net Forty.
16 years for a complete transformation of the economy.
Over to you Angry Bandt!
You put it better than me Entropy.
I got my own clip across the ears from the boss, and yes, I too do quite like Mavis as a poster.
Yes, Mavis has indeed done the Pepsys!
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 8:15 pm
Bizzcan at 7:32 pm:
Re: NACC public vs private hearings.
Those advocating the Star Chamber approach have yet to address the obvious issue – how does “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong” find redress after being investigated, trialed, cleared, but can never work again because any future employer would deem her a “risk” from a surface google search? People just want to salivate over the gory details rather than seek procedural fairness.
———————-
This is a very good point, and one that gets pushed to one side by a lot of people who expect the NACC to do all of its work in public.
I would observe, however, that the rightful concerns you’ve identified for “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong” didn’t seem to trouble too many here when it was “Gladys from Parliament in Sydney” in the firing line.
=====================================================
Whether the case against “Gladys from Parliament in Sydney” was strong enough to be given the open hearing status is possibly debatable. Unfortunately for her the case against her Minister Dodgy Daryl was certainly strong enough to justify an open hearing though. The question then becomes how do you have a full open hearing for Dodgy Daryl and not have Glady being part of it?.
Been There at 8:27 pm
Oh, the agonies “Gladys from Parliament in Sydney” must have suffered as compared to “Mavis from Centerlink in Geelong”.
I really weep for Gladys from Parliament.
———————-
I wouldn’t expect a partisan to be consistent in the standard to which they hold their opponents as compared with their friends, so your comment is unsurprising. But I happen to think there are good reasons for treading cautiously in the publication of investigations by bodies holding extreme investigative powers, regardless of who is impacted by it.
We’ve known for well over a century that the combustion of carbon-based fuels would change the atmosphere by increasing its insulating property. Nothing much has been done in relation to this until very recently. Not enough is being done now to forestall very significant further additions of insulating gases to the atmosphere. Species, such as ours, that have prospered in a temperate and stable climate, will face commensurately profound disruptions. This is now inevitable. We should try to accelerate change – change that is overdue and has been deliberately retarded. Of course, the Reactionaries will continue to try to make political gains by opposing change at every turn. They are the enemies of change. They premise their chances on fighting change. They are utterly detestable.
Entropy at 8:54 pm
The question then becomes how do you have a full open hearing for Dodgy Daryl and not have Glady being part of it?.
——————
The point would be that you maybe don’t have a full open hearing for Daryl, which seems to be the NACC approach. Sure, you publish findings once the thing is done, but the constant media sensationalism during the course of the hearing goes away.
NACC was a nice political slogan but it has already proven to be about as effective as all the other State ICAC’s.
Nothing partisan about comparing a poor victim of Robodebt to a politician declared corrupt by a very legal body by the name of the ICAC.
I don’t need to tread cautiously, and keep your ” bodies of extreme investigative powers” whinging to your IPA boardroom.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 8:58 pm
Entropy at 8:54 pm
The question then becomes how do you have a full open hearing for Dodgy Daryl and not have Glady being part of it?.
——————
The point would be that you maybe don’t have a full open hearing for Daryl, which seems to be the NACC approach. Sure, you publish findings once the thing is done, but the constant media sensationalism during the course of the hearing goes away.
========================================================
Certainly if you take into account the witnesses as well. There is probably no case in which an open hearing would be justified. As nearly all political malfeasance doesn’t occur in a vacuum. There is likely to be some who had minor roles in the committing of others crimes. Even if that just mean’t not imposing ethical standards to the level they possibly should have been applied. While these people probably need a reprimand. Their level of culpability is probably not to the criminal nor open hearing standard.