The proposed federal redistribution for New South Wales, requiring the abolition of one of its 47 seats, is being published today. The boundaries will presumably be up on the Australian Electoral Commission site shortly, but for now there a gazetted notice informs us that the proposal abolishes North Sydney, held by teal independent Kylea Tink. The fact that no other electorate names are identified as having been abolished, and the revelation that More to follow.
UPDATE: Full boundaries now available on the AEC site, and here are my two-candidate and two-party preferred (the latter boiling it down to Labor and Coalition) estimates for the new margins. Teals are treated as a single entity so, for example, where Warringah gains territory from North Sydney, Kylea Tink’s votes there are transferred to Zali Steggall. In areas where there was no teal candidate last time though, it’s not possible to estimate how they would have gone.
UPDATE 2: I just unearthed an error in the code that was causing errors in a few places, notably Hume and Eden-Monaro. The numbers below should add up now.
UPDATE 3: My analysis of the new boundaries has just been published in Crikey.
How often do these initial proposals get amended?
Pretty much always, but usually not in ways that need concern the average person. There was a redistribution for Victoria about a decade ago where they scrapped the whole thing and started again.
Well, Libs will be happy that a Teal seat gets abolished …… but how long that happiness lasts given The Great Strategist Duttons efforts on Climate over the last week or so will be interesting to see. 🙂
So what happens, does Tink just serve out her term?
She probably goes up against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield, which will presumably absorb much of North Sydney. Which leaves Nicolette Boele at a loose end.
“So what happens, does Tink just serve out her term?”
I think so. She was elected an MP for the term of this parliament and these changes set boundaries for the NEXT election. AEC does not have the power to push out actual sitting members of parliament. 🙂
Be very interesting if she can knock off a Senior Liberal (manager of opposition business) at the next election? Yup, its a safe Liberal seat, but so were others that fell last time.
Thanks Will + imacca
Yes, will be a contest to watch, sort of like Warringah.
its on the AEC website now
Well, the positive is the extreme Libs definitely won’t be winning back Nth Sydney.
Proposed boundaries: https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/nsw/proposed-redistribution/index.html
https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2023/nsw/proposed-redistribution/
Eden-Monaro is taking in Goulburn.
Hume takes in more of South West Sydney.
I am at funeral, so I am trying figure things out on my phone alone.
North Sydney is split three ways like Poland in 1795, with North Sydney and nearby suburbs going to Warringah, the Chatswood-Willoughby areas into Bradfield and Lane Cove and Hunters Hill areas to Bennelong.
It doesn’t seem as if any seats have flipped. Hume and Wentworth are now more marginal for the Liberals and Bennelong is razor skinny for the ALP. Bradfield certainly in play for Tink if she wants to go down that route.
Hughes and Hume look like they will be more interesting
Who’s the benficiary of Labor’s 16% in Bennelong? Given the write-up, I thought it would be an unsuccessful Teal but I don’t see any here
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/benn
MacKellar, Warringah and Wentworth back to the Liberals, if I am reading that correctly.
I’m being moved from Hughes to Cook now. Shame as the 4 Labor votes in this house had more effect in Hughes than Cook, but the move west makes it better for Labor overall.
Bennelong lost some territory to the west to Parramatta (marginal Lab), and a bit in the north west to Berowra (safe Lib), but those are both liberal favoring parts of the seat, so would have helped Laxale’s margin. It gains a chunk of abolished North Sydney.
>MacKellar, Warringah and Wentworth back to the Liberals, if I am reading that correctly.
Rest assured, you aren’t. Wentworth has chunks with no Teal to compare too, but there was literally no way the seat could expand that helps the Libs.
Based on this draft redistribution, Bennelong looks dicey for Jerome Laxale(West Pennant Hills has been moved from Berowra into that seat), Parramatta is a bit less safe for Andrew Charlton but not drastically so, Reid is a fair bit safer for Sally Sitou, Angus Taylor might need to work harder in Hume, and Hughes is a chance for Labor next time if they preselect a decent candidate.
No real problems for the likes of Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Ed Husic, the Labor MP for Werriwa.
I guess Kylea Tink will have to go up against Paul Fletcher in the newly expanded Bradfield.
An excellent redistribution for the Liberal Party.
Bennelong looks likely to flip now. Macquarie, Greenway and Macarthur move from safe Labor to the definitively winnable category. On the other hand, cannot see Hume or Hughes, as outer suburban seats, be lost to Labor given they do not fit the demographic mould. Robertson, Hunter and Gilmore remain prime targets.
I am a bit suprised that an original 1901 federal electorate has been abolished or at the very least the name North Sydney was not retained given this is a rational that has applied in other federal redisributions.
That being said it probably wasnt an easy argument to apply the North Sydney name to Warringah otherwise.
Happy to be educated on this, but shifting 12% of NSW voters to other divisions whilst abolishing only one division seems a like a major disruption …?
I just fixed an error in my code and redid the margins.
Bennelong proposed boundaries have changed significantly. The move east has the eastern boundary almost the same as they were in 1969-1975. It loses Epping, North Epping, Carlingford as well as Ermington. Its now all LGA’s of Ryde, Hunters Hill Lane Cove with a bit of Willoughby. On the chart Labor loses 18% of its vote but 2PP appears to only all but a 50:50 split on these boundaries.
it will be fascinating to watch what happens to the ‘voices of North Sydney’ organisation. Will it dissolve with the main players joining the adjoining ‘voices’ movements for their new seats? what of Kylea Tink?
Personally, I’ve found her to be the weakest of the community independents and she hasn’t had as much visibility / profile as the others. I’d like to see Nicolette boele have another go personally, she’s clearly put the hard yards in operating as an almost shadow member for Bradfield and seems to have a good ‘voices’ movement behind her. Perhaps Ms Tink would be better of running as an independent in the Senate?
@MelbourneMammothsays:
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 1:43 pm
An excellent redistribution for the Liberal Party.
Bennelong looks likely to flip now. Macquarie, Greenway and Macarthur move from safe Labor to the definitively winnable category. On the other hand, cannot see Hume or Hughes, as outer suburban seats, be lost to Labor given they do not fit the demographic mould. Robertson, Hunter and Gilmore remain prime targets.
Not sure how you come to those conclusions. There is no change in the 2PP in Macquarie, Greenway, Macarthur, Robertson and Gilmore. Hunter is improved for Labor a seat they have held since 1910. Bennelong is a different proposition now that the LGA’s of Hunters Hill and Lane Cove with part of Willoughby are included with the bits of Parramatta going to Parramatta and Berowra. Lane Cove is currently a Labor council. The Liberal partys problem is they have parachuted someone who has no connections to the area in as their candidate and Laxale a former Ryde Mayor which is the largest population in the seat is popular,
A oncer. There is nothing worse.
She has now joined the Kerryn Phelps, Maxine McKew club.
She wasn’t voted out, TaylorMade.
Kylea Tink, in 2022, was ahead on TPP in a very high % of booths including the north of the seat of North Sydney – only clearly behind in Hunters Hill area
Think there has been a trend for parts of Bennelong to move to North Sydney now with nth Sydney abolished they are at least in part returning.
My take on things for Crikey:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/06/14/north-sydney-seat-electorate-abolished-kylea-tink/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1718341768-1
William
Great piece in crikey, but I take issue with you describing Zali Steggal as the prototype teal. Clearly that honour belongs to Cathy McGowan and voices for indi, who pretty much everyone acknowledges as developing the template for the community independents model. Granted their colours are orange, but you take my point……..
It looks as if I will have to change my PB moniker after the next election as I am currently in the section of Beecroft that is proposed to be taken from Bennelong and added to Parramatta.
Edited for clarity.
Bennelong Lurker – yes, you’ll have Andrew Charlton as your new local MP.
Looks like I’ve getting moved from Berowra to Bradfield – good, I’ll probably vote for a Teal candidate, whoever it is, to keep Paul Fletcher out, Labor won’t have a chance of course.
I’ll find myself in Bradfield at the next election. Teal Candidate Nicolette Boele got nearly 46% of the 2CP vote last time. Maybe an infusion of North Sydney voters from the Willoughby and Artarmon areas would boost the Teal vote there, although it will gain very affluent Harbourside Liberal areas as well.
I will most likely vote for whichever Teal runs, with second preference to Labor and as always, Liberal last. And for the Senate, Labor.
Tanya Plibersek on her Instagram page earlier today:
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 2:57 pm
She wasn’t voted out, TaylorMade.
_____________________
No shit.
The end result is the same. It’s over.
Let’s hope she moves onto the next stage of her life a hell of a lot better than Maxine McKew did. She became all bitter and twisted.
The Redistribution Wash-Up
Get the popcorn out and grab a seat (not recommended in North Sydney). William has already published his estimates of the new electorate two candidate and two party preferred margins in NSW seats at this proposal stage of the redistribution process. My gosh, that was fast William. Final declaration comes in October.
What was the main goal of the NSW redistribution. Let’s ask Antony Green
The major tasks of the redistribution was to “deal with a shortfall of voters both north and south of the Harbour, a surplus in Sydney’s southwest and adjusting the boundary between metropolitan Sydney and the country” {Antony Green, October 2023).
Following William’s NSW data posted here and his Crickey article, it is clear that in the proposed NSW redistribution no seats were flipped from one party to another, no new seats were created and one NSW seat was abolished [The Independent held North Sydney].
On the pendulum, a journo estimated 700,000 + plus voters swapping electoral divisions in NSW, and William has that 2CP and 2PP changes in NSW seats well covered here. Riverina was the stand out change I noted from a first glimpse.
Drawing on an Antony Green blog in October 2023 regarding NSW, the Libs got pretty much what they wanted [dump North Sydney, split the voters on that electorate between Warringah, Bennelong and Bradfield and rename Bradfield North Sydney [the last wish didn’t happen].
The Nationals got half their wish and Labor, the Greens and the Independent mob got donuts, nada.
Labor proposed the abolition of the seat of Hughes which would trigger a lot of boundary shifting in Western Sydney.]
The Nationals proposed a double abolition, the seat of North Sydney and the Prime Minister’s seat of Grayndler to make space for a new seat further West in Sydney.
The Greens proposed a double abolition as well, the seat of Bradfield {Liberal) and the seat of Watson, held by Labor’s Tony Burke.
As for Antony Green himself, he stated in his 2023 blog amongst many other things that “ A seat must be abolished on the north shore”. He got his wish.
Looking through my own lenses, The National picture looks like this–
The three State redistribution process has the Liberals losing one seat to Labor nominally in Victoria and gaining none, the Greens losing and gaining nothing, the Teals losing a seat to abolition in NSW and Labor having a mix bag of losing one seat to abolishment, gaining one seat from the Liberals in Victoria and being nominated as the lead Party in the new seat in WA.
In raw seat numbers, the Libs come out of it without hitting the panic button. The loss of one seat to Labor is only nominal and very small in 2PP terms (0.9%) and the new seat of Bullwinkel is only nominally a new Labor seat on a skinny 2PP margin (2.9 %). On paper the Coalition slips from 58 seats in 2022 to 56 seats after the Aston by election in 2023 and the redistribution process in 2024.
I have the Liberals likely to keep Menzies (Coalition 57) under their banner and claiming the new seat of Bullwinkel (Coalition 58) in my 2025 crystal ball speculations.
The Nationals (16) and the Greens (4) keep all their seats (4) and gain none and the Teals lose one seat and gain none.
Labor came out of 2022 with 77 seats, gained one in a by election in Aston in 2023 to go to 78 seats, lost a seat in Victoria (Higgins) to drop back to 77, and gained Menzies and Bullwinkel {on paper] to have a net pre-election 2025 number of 79 seats.
Conceding Menzies and Bullwinkel to the Liberal Party, my pendulum kicks off almost mirroring the 2022 election result seat numbers with only one real numerical change {Teal loss}. Labor on 77, Coalition on 58, Greens on 4 and ‘others’ down from 12 to 11 seats. We go from 151 seats in 2022 to 150 next year. Let the games begin.
PS: My money is on Kylea Tink going to Bradfield if the previous Teal candidate says no thanks for 2025 Steve. You know it makes sense. I would be surprised to see Tink shoving another Teal out the way to save her own bacon. But IF Boele doesn’t stand.. Go Tinkerbell.
@Sandman
If you check out her website it’s pretty clear Nicolette is intending to run again in Bradfield. She has styled herself as the “Shadow Member” since the last election. Going to be very interesting to see what Tink decides to do…
I’ve got Bennelong going Labor to Liberal (just).
Noted William, thank you. Missed that at my first glance.
aggmagpiesays:
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 7:31 pm
@Sandman
If you check out her website it’s pretty clear Nicolette is intending to run again in Bradfield. She has styled herself as the “Shadow Member” since the last election. Going to be very interesting to see what Tink decides to do.
Surely she wouldnt run against another Teal ? Guess you never really know in politics.
Im going to have to adjust my post redistribution numbers now because I missed Bennelong flipping on paper from Labor to the Libs. Ignore my post above. It is wrong. “Missed by that much” to parrot Maxwell Smart.
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 6:32 pm
If anything, it would be in Labor’s interests to hold an election after the redistribution is finalised in the NT in March, since it’s likely that areas from the conservative-leaning Palmerston will be transferred from the marginal Lingiari to fairly safe Solomon, making losing Lingiari a bit less likely.
Oh dear, another spanner in the pre election works to wait for. Bugger that. Im going to assume status quo in NT post redistribution and reset my pre election seat numbers based on what we already know.
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, June 14, 2024 at 6:32 pm
If anything, it would be in Labor’s interests to hold an election after the redistribution is finalised in the NT in March, since it’s likely that areas from the conservative-leaning Palmerston will be transferred from the marginal Lingiari to fairly safe Solomon, making losing Lingiari a bit less likely.
Oh dear, another spanner in the pre election works to wait for. Bugger that. Im going to assume status quo in NT post redistribution and reset my pre election seat numbers based on what we already know.
Gilmore remains on a knife edge, but it’s notable that twice in the last few months they’ve had massive rainfall events down there, with flooding in the Jervis Bay area just last week on a scale I can’t recall in around 60 years of travelling there. Which isn’t exactly advantageous to parties into climate change denial.