Two federal polls are out this evening, one from Resolve Strategic in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, one from Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, both of which report more-or-less monthly, and both of which are little changed on last time. However, Resolve Strategic has a headline-grabber with Labor’s primary vote falling to 28%, and both record movements on leadership ratings that are discouraging for Anthony Albanese and encouraging for Peter Dutton.
Resolve Strategic’s primary vote results are Labor 28%, down one; Coalition 36%, steady; Greens 14%, up two; One Nation 6%, down one; and a notably popular generic independent category 11%, down one. The pollster does not publish two-party preferred, and how one infers it based on preference flows from the last election depends a fair bit on how one deals with that 11%. My favoured method involves lumping independents and others into a single category, since Resolve Strategic’s independent total is double a 2022 election result that was dominated by teals and thus flowed to Labor fairly strongly over the Coalition, whereas it seems likely to me that much of the 11% is a none-of-the-above effect. On this basis, I get Labor ahead 50.7-49.3, a swing to the Coalition of 1.4%.
Leadership ratings are notable in having Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 36-35, a distinct change from last month’s 40-32 that has apparently had little impact on voting intention. Albanese’s combined very good and rating is 37%, down two, and his combined very poor and poor rating is 51%, up two. Peter Dutton records his first net positive rating from this pollster, his very good plus good rating being 42%, up three, while very poor plus poor is 40%, down two. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Freshwater Strategy has both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, with Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 40%, with the Greens down a point to 13%, with two-party preferred at an unchanged 50-50. Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton is slashed from 46-37 to 43-41, and he is down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 46%. Dutton is up four on approval to 35% and steady on 40% disapproval. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060. Both polls have best-party-to-handle questions that record movement across the board to the Coalition: Resolve Strategic has the Coalition’s lead on economic management out from nine points to sixteen, and Freshwater Strategy has Labor’s lead on the environment and climate change in from thirteen to five.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 8:54 pm
Yeah wranslide I agree – I doubt even Dutton thinks he’s going to be PM after the next election. But maybe first term Opposition Leaders are like candidates in hopeless seats – they see signs no one else sees.
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I think that is what Angus Taylor is basing his current plans on too.
Aqualung,
I feel your pain. However, the alternative, while being a lot better at the politics, is much, much worse at the policy.
I held off for a bit and right on cue William starts a new thread after I post 🙂
From the previous thread:
I’m waiting for Dutton to do a Keating and describe Albanese as a shiver looking for a spine.
Yes. He is that bad.
I consider myself centre left. This government is centre right. It only looks vaguely leftist because the coalition have moved so far to the right.
I’m in Chifley and I’m struggling to justify putting 1 next to Husic’s name.
The problem for me is that there’s usually buggar all alternative choices on the ballot here.
Mundo and I are on a joint ticket.
Labor for whatever reason don’t do politics.
Watt comes across well and seems to have a bit of starch to him. Let him off the leash.
And the NACC is clearly a sick joke.
And now the FTA networks are running ads putting the boot in.
I would expect the recent appointment of Niki Savva to the Board of Old Parliament House to start emerging as a moderate positive bounce in Government polling in the next future series releases. News about it is just getting around so naturally it will take time to filter through to the polls but expect it to really show up next month.
Interesting polls the last week with some general consistency with the exception of Morgan which seems to move in the opposite direction of other polls. Generally primary polling isn’t moving much and all the interest is a tightening on preferred PM and Albanese personal rating falling.
Resolve Strategic has the Coalition’s lead on economic management out from nine points to sixteen, and Freshwater Strategy has Labor’s lead on the environment and climate change in from thirteen to five.
Dutts not taking a Carbon Target to the Election chops Labor’s climate change lead?
Easy solution would be for Albo to match that and see what happens.
The Faceless Men can’t do a Rudd on him because of Labor’s rule changes, right?
Wran – Ha!
What I’m talking about, re Dutton V Albanese, is encapsulated in this commentary about Trump V Mitch McConnell. The PM may think he controls the machinery of power, but it can be successfully co-opted:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/mitch-mcconnell-is-trumps-gimp-again
I’m just saying, the PM needs to understand better the power his position allows him to wield.
Bad thinker if Labor really wanted to remove Albanese, which I very much doubt, then they can change the rules.
About time someone plotted ‘exposure time ” against polling %.. from my perception the libs have received saturation coverage the last 6 months.. even on the ABC.. all Labor need do is pull their finger out & generate publicity.. more of Penny Wong & Tanya & less of the boys will see them moving forward.
Deluded by Dutton and the punters will be the losers. Only have to look at the 14 years of Tories in the UK. Be careful what you wish for.
Steve the problem doesn’t seem to be punters being deluded by Dutton but being disappointed by Albanese.
They will soon be disappointed by Dutton too if he wins on a platform of nuclear power stations and super for houses. Everything else is a mystery. He doesnt give a shit about cost of living measures and wages as he has form in voting against both. Any halfwit know hes against unions and welfare payments and has been told to consider austerity measures. All that means is less money for everyone except the rich.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 9:26 pm
Bad thinker if Labor really wanted to remove Albanese, which I very much doubt, then they can change the rules.
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Pretty sure that rule can only be changed by full vote of all Labor members though. Certainly the rules that were passed on this at the 2018 ALP National Platform can only be overturned by the equivalent body meeting again.
Which is also why if Angus Taylor is planing to replace Dutton, as Hollie Hughes suggests. It would be if Dutton loses the election and the position automatically spills. Currently, if Dutton doesn’t want to go, it would be very hard to replace him under Liberal Party rules before then too.
Pics of Albo yesterday in the papers were of the old 2 stone heavier Albo about 10 years ago.
He looks like an old tired man with an upset stomach now.
I think Marlesy should be given a shot.
Sure, he’s an oaf, but he’s not Albo.
Looks like Dutton’s backflip on Paris has been covered, given the poll periods for both pollsters.
Zero impact re: Paris.
There is something else with the PM that voters are upset about. Does he need an attack dog. No one wants Albo in the boxing ring punching away on his own. He needs an attack dog to do this and better that he sits on the sidelines.
There is something else going on in the community. A general unhappiness about something else.
Is it rents, inflation, immigration or Gaza. The poll numbers tell us the primaries, but not the reason why.
steve davis @ 9:37 pm
…
The idea behind a Commonwealth Games or Olympics bid was that voters would keep the Government around if it was successful.
Dutts has used the same thinking with Nuclear, obviously voters are open to it, Albo put his big foot in it by saying it won’t be built before 2040.
Dutts agreed, so now he or his successor have at least until 2040, and that’s bipartisan.
In the meantime Gas gets built, the CFPS’s don’t get dynamited after all, and Labor has been played on their strength.
Nah… Tony Burke for PM, Ed Husic for Treasurer. The former can pull off both the relaxed fun look but firing up when needed. The latter is out there doing more speaking about the economy than Chalmers is.
And I wish there was some way of making Wong deputy PM along side foreign minister (stupid House of Reps/Senate conventions).
Chris lost his father a few days ago.
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 9:48 pm
steve davis @ 9:37 pm
…
The idea behind a Commonwealth Games or Olympics bid was that voters would keep the Government around if it was successful.
Dutts has used the same thinking with Nuclear, obviously voters are open to it, Albo put his big foot in it by saying it won’t be built before 2040.
Dutts agreed, so now he or his successor have at least until 2040, and that’s bipartisan.
In the meantime Gas gets built, the CFPS’s don’t get dynamited after all, and Labor has been played on their strength.
================================================
Howard sold most of our gas off dirt cheap to China on long term contracts. We don’t have the gas to power Australia. Even if we wanted to go down that reckless path of Dutton’s.
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html
Entropy there are two parts to the leadership rules. One part which provides for a month of process leading up to elections one by party members and a second by caucus is enshrined in the party constitution. Harder to change.
The second part which relates to the percentage triggers can be changed by a simple majority of caucus.
So in theory a majority of caucus could trigger a change in rule and leadership challenge. However then Labor could be locked into a month of in fighting. A unlikely situation to arise.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Entropy there are two parts to the leadership rules. One part which provides for a month of process leading up to elections one by party members and a second by caucus is enshrined in the party constitution. Harder to change.
The second part which relates to the percentage triggers can be changed by a simple majority of caucus.
So in theory a majority of caucus could trigger a change in rule and leadership challenge. However then Labor could be locked into a month of in fighting. A unlikely situation to arise.
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Similar rules apply to the Liberals too, i believe. Which makes leadership challenges during the electoral terms for both sides pretty much unworkable.
I recall there being leaks of a serious meeting with Labor communication guru’s and party figures last year in the aftermath of the result of the Voice referendum.
The guru’s were like “They’re slaughtering us in both traditional and social media.”, Labor asked “How do we combat that?” and the answer was “We don’t know.”
The answer still seems to be “We don’t know.” If that is the case I suggest Labor replaces them with people who do know so they don’t end up like human punching bags for a year before being turfed out for Trump’s pitbull Dutton.
Nadia I think it started with the Voice referendum. Immigration issues have added to the perception of the government not in control of a key area. In addition we have had “beat ups” about housing and cost of living crises and my gut tells me people feel the government has not lived up to their rhetoric on the issues. Just blaming the Reserve Bank, banks generally and supermarkets won’t wash it, that’s the perception.
Entropy I guess it depends on how bad a situation becomes to get a majority of members to change the constitution. I agree it makes it difficult and unlikely.
Even if Albanese could be replaced, the election is not far away and the opposition would rip Labor a new one and carry on all the way to the election with the help of their mates in the megaphone media like they did with Gillard.
For better or worse we’re stuck with him. At this stage I can’t see Dutton winning, especially once he’s out in the glare of an election campaign but boy those polls don’t look great.
Not wetting my bed but I cannot for the life of me figure out how Labor have allowed this situation to develop.
I think the haters miss-understand Albo’s job. The leaders job is to make his team shine. Rudd made the mistake of thinking it was all about him, as did Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison. Albo has not made that mistake. We know the team , we know what they do and Albo seem confident enough to have it that way. Albo will not be replaced.
Dutton’s problem is there is no team, he leads a bunch of dudds.
“Dutton’s Duds”
You have the makings of a slogan there, frednk.
Gee, there is a lot of Kool Aid drinking going on here. Albo has been a dud almost from day one, the polls have been trending down for some time now, but all is well apparently. You could not make it up. I think that Albanese has gone ‘all prime ministerial’ and thinks getting down and dirty is beneath him now.
Dee @ #18 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 9:52 pm
I didn’t want to say it, but yes, that’s it. So people should cut the guy some slack for a while.
Like a frog in the heated saucepan.
Anyhoo, I’m going to a meeting in Sydney next week which I hope will get pretty spicy with some truth-telling to some of the high ups that will be there. I don’t feel like observing niceties and just patting them on the back for a job well done, that’s for sure. Dutton should be nowhere near as competitive as he is, and I’m going to tell them to pull up their socks! 😀
C@t at 10:33pm
Wishing all the best for you with that, and I mean that sincerely.
Plenty of noise tonight, with Labor still turning over the laps after some clever tuning by Penny Wong regarding the trade with China.
Dutton’s and the LNP’s vast crew in the media and elsewhere are stuck with a badly rebuilt engine, the rebuilding still going on long after the reckless Morrison packed his swag.
Seemingly no amount of tinkering with the lipstick will see Dutton regain a lead.
The swag of LNP fans are desperate, grasping at any chance of a developing gap in the weather, but they just don’t have the engine or the driver to gain an advantage.
The LNP and supporters are refusing to incorporate the new technology,that is the Teals and independents, and continue with the “I’ll blow your house down” stuff.
Sorry, Mr Dutton, “we make them, you don’t”.
There is plenty of “Palmer” like time and money not “hitting the mark” .
Both Abbott and Morrison were terrible mistakes. Is it possible that the boomers and the power of their windfall gains will make the same mistake again?
The world is moving too much to the far right. This is all going to end up in tears.
‘Climate 200 … has thrown its support behind independent campaigns in nine more Coalition-held seats.
‘… the group said it would support independent campaigns in the Queensland electorates of McPherson, Moncrief, Fisher and Fairfax as well as the New South Wales electorates Cowper and Bradfield, and Casey, Monash and Wannon in Victoria.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/17/climate-200-names-nine-new-coalition-seats-where-it-hopes-to-replicate-teal-wave-at-next-election
“Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton is slashed from 46-37 to 43-31 …”
A typo there, William?
A 9-point lead ‘slashed’ to 12 points?
Interesting slant in David Crowe’s reporting of Resolve.
Dutton has ‘a narrow lead’ as preferred prime minister, 36% vs Albo’s 35% (effectively a statistical tie).
And Labor’s primary vote ‘fell’ … from 29% to 28%.
But the Greens’ 2-point gain on primary vote (12% to 14%) ‘appears large[ly] due to rounding’ … apparently. 😉
Thanks – corrected from 43-31 to 43-41.
Federal lib/nats are refusing to give details of nuclear thought bubble and keeping the same policies which they got voted out why the lib/nats combined primary vote stuck on 36%, offering nothing new
Majority of opinion polls are inconsistent with Labor primary vote
Labor primary vote is bouncing around 33% , which shows they are in no danger of not being in government
but consistent with the Lib/nats combined primary vote 36%
2025 federal election
Labor primary vote will not be lower than 30% , labor will do very well if the primary vote gets to 35%
BDC with one of best up and downs you will ever see on the 8th. Leads by 1 over McIlroy
Go Farnsey!
John Farnham’s first public appearance since surgery
Cat, that could be Australia circa 1950
Climate 200 named 9 coalition seats they are targeting [Gardian story]
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/17/climate-200-names-nine-new-coalition-seats-where-it-hopes-to-replicate-teal-wave-at-next-election
Wannon is one of them, Alex Dyson outdid expectations last election, will be a different battle this time.
Freinds Of Wannon have been active.
What is the connection between racism’s misogyny & Silicon Valley ? Are they all disaffected social misfits?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/16/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-eugenics-scientific-racism
Dutton has brought Climate 200 back into play.
clem attlee: so you think Albo should start having himself sworn in as minster f everything as Morrison did?
I noted the ABC reported the resolve poll (for some reason the most anti Labor series) with glee.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There have been so many poll articles today I have decided to give them a miss from the patrol today.
Sean Kelly explains how Dutton’s energy switch may help Albanese keep Labor’s lights on.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-dutton-s-energy-switch-may-help-albanese-keep-labor-s-lights-on-20240616-p5jm63.html
David Chau tells us that experts are saying the Coalition’s plan to build nuclear reactors is ‘virtually impossible’ without taxpayer funding.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/nuclear-investment-case-coalition-reactors-viable/103978266
Reigniting the climate policy wars for short-term political gain will just make the longer-term challenge of transforming Australia’s carbon-intensive economy even harder, longer, and more costly, declares the AFR’s editorial.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/poll-shows-the-political-risk-to-net-zero-20240613-p5jlf8
Climate 200, the fundraising giant that bankrolled the teal independent wave at the last election, has thrown its support behind independent campaigns in nine more Coalition-held seats. Amy Remeikis tells us that after months of speculation, the group said it would support independent campaigns in the Queensland electorates of McPherson, Moncrief, Fisher and Fairfax as well as the New South Wales electorates Cowper and Bradfield, and Casey, Monash and Wannon in Victoria.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/17/climate-200-names-nine-new-coalition-seats-where-it-hopes-to-replicate-teal-wave-at-next-election
Ernst Willhelm says that the superficial coverage of Dutton’s nuclear policy does Australia a disservice.
https://johnmenadue.com/superficial-coverage-of-duttons-nuclear-policy-does-australia-a-disservice/
On paper we can offset our way to net zero. In the real world, we cannot, writes Caitlin Fitzsimmons about the accounting trick at the heart of the world’s climate goals.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-accounting-trick-at-the-heart-of-the-world-s-climate-goals-20240612-p5jl6a.html
The NSW Liberals last year overwhelmingly backed a bold plan for housing, including around every train station in Sydney. Now they have changed their minds, writes Alexandra Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/senior-liberals-target-anti-nimby-colleagues-over-housing-crisis-20240616-p5jm5b.html
Bupa has signalled its intention to buy and build a national network of healthcare centres providing GP services, allied health and pathology, as the insurer seeks to further broaden the services it offers.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/bupa-will-buy-and-build-as-many-as-100-health-hubs-across-the-nation/news-story/1da090279ed2b72ef1ed57fa229ab908?amp=
An assessment of the condition of each of Victoria’s public schools will stay confidential because, the Education Department argues, releasing reports on each one could harm some schools’ reputation. The department’s decision has infuriated the state opposition, which has accused the Allan government of avoiding scrutiny and hiding behind Victoria’s long-criticised freedom-of-information laws.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/secrecy-on-the-state-of-public-schools-condemned-amid-delayed-upgrades-20240612-p5jl5g.html
The New York Times says Europe, long considered a climate leader, has dumped Greens at the polls.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/europe-long-considered-a-climate-leader-has-dumped-greens-at-the-polls-20240616-p5jm6r.html
Professor Matt Fitzpatrick explains why Europeans – including the young – are being pushed to the far right.
https://theconversation.com/why-are-europeans-including-the-young-being-pushed-to-the-far-right-232253
“Brexit will dominate the UK election. Not this one, but the next”, predicts George Brandis who concludes his interesting contribution saying changes of government usually signal a period of renewal and stability. But over the next five years, as Starmer tries to manage a dangerously large backbench while he seeks to return Britain to the 1970s, and the right descends even deeper into civil war, political stability is the last thing Britain is likely to see.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/brexit-will-dominate-the-uk-election-not-this-one-the-next-one-20240616-p5jm3r.html
The election is farcical and frustrating, but deeply significant – under Labour things really could get better, says John Harris.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/16/election-britain-labour-government
Donald Trump is such a vulgar human being we ought to be ashamed to be members of the same species. Even more disgusting and tragic, however, are the individuals in public life who surrender their last shreds of dignity, and the remaining crumbs of their principles, in exchange for access to Trump. The notion that anyone can accept the idea that the former president is the last, best hope to save American democracy is repulsive in the extreme. The opposite, in fact, is true. Trump’s restoration to the White House, based only on his threats, would begin the complete disassembling of the past two and a half centuries of America’s aspirational journey to create a “more perfect union”, writes James Moore.
https://theaimn.com/the-old-man-with-a-spray-tan/
Gantz’s exit may reduce Netanyahu’s room to move, but it won’t bring down the government, posits Maher Mughrabi,
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/gantz-s-exit-may-reduce-netanyahu-s-room-to-move-but-it-won-t-bring-down-the-government-20240612-p5jl78.html
The Holocaust was racist genocide of an unprecedented scale of industrial organisation. The ensuing term Never Again applies to all humankind and resonates with Jewish conceptions of justice. This moral value is now in jeopardy, impacting on Australians of conscience, argues Linda Briksman.
https://johnmenadue.com/who-can-make-the-call-on-anti-semitism/
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
David Rowe
Jim Pavlidis
Mark David
Badiucao
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Courtesy of the federal liberal party losing seats to the teals , they may help the teals independents to get more seats than the national party in the house of reps
McPherson, Moncrieff, Fisher and Fairfax look Teal ready, if they knew what they know now, might’ve won in 2022.
Not Sturt?