Two federal polls are out this evening, one from Resolve Strategic in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, one from Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, both of which report more-or-less monthly, and both of which are little changed on last time. However, Resolve Strategic has a headline-grabber with Labor’s primary vote falling to 28%, and both record movements on leadership ratings that are discouraging for Anthony Albanese and encouraging for Peter Dutton.
Resolve Strategic’s primary vote results are Labor 28%, down one; Coalition 36%, steady; Greens 14%, up two; One Nation 6%, down one; and a notably popular generic independent category 11%, down one. The pollster does not publish two-party preferred, and how one infers it based on preference flows from the last election depends a fair bit on how one deals with that 11%. My favoured method involves lumping independents and others into a single category, since Resolve Strategic’s independent total is double a 2022 election result that was dominated by teals and thus flowed to Labor fairly strongly over the Coalition, whereas it seems likely to me that much of the 11% is a none-of-the-above effect. On this basis, I get Labor ahead 50.7-49.3, a swing to the Coalition of 1.4%.
Leadership ratings are notable in having Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 36-35, a distinct change from last month’s 40-32 that has apparently had little impact on voting intention. Albanese’s combined very good and rating is 37%, down two, and his combined very poor and poor rating is 51%, up two. Peter Dutton records his first net positive rating from this pollster, his very good plus good rating being 42%, up three, while very poor plus poor is 40%, down two. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Freshwater Strategy has both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, with Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 40%, with the Greens down a point to 13%, with two-party preferred at an unchanged 50-50. Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton is slashed from 46-37 to 43-41, and he is down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 46%. Dutton is up four on approval to 35% and steady on 40% disapproval. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060. Both polls have best-party-to-handle questions that record movement across the board to the Coalition: Resolve Strategic has the Coalition’s lead on economic management out from nine points to sixteen, and Freshwater Strategy has Labor’s lead on the environment and climate change in from thirteen to five.
Thailand to legalize gay marriage.
Socrates @ #879 Tuesday, June 18th, 2024 – 8:39 pm
The barrister better be good. Morrison will not give straight answers, he’ll try and give stemwinders. A la the Robodebt RC.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 8:48 pm
Scottsays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 8:31 pm
…
from link:
Senator Reynolds made an unexpected appearance at a directions hearing related to the trial in the WA Supreme Court on Tuesday, when lawyers for Ms Higgins tried to delay the start of the trial from July 24 to August 5 because of timetable conflicts.
August 5, eh?
Look, don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose, but … August 3.
===================================================
Are you seriously suggesting Albo discusses with a former Liberal staffer Higgins, the timing of an election? If so, you are even more mentally deranged then even i suspected.
Lordbain says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 8:30 pm
Dont be silly Griff, it was a demonstration of your misunderstanding my point that BWs comment of just “focusing on the party with the most amount of votes” means absolutely nothing in Australia given no single entity controls the balance of power
Honestly, I didnt think you would have such a tough time getting that point across you silly billy
_________
I had to look back at what you said. You said “BW… not sure how to break this to you, but it seems like the majority of voters dont vote for Labor.”
Preferential voting means that your vote is transferred i.e. does not expire when the candidate you place a 1 next to does not get up. So Labor received 7,642,161 i.e. 52.13% of the two party preferred vote in the House of Representatives for the 2022 election. That means the majority of voters voted for Labor. To be fair we could look at the preferred vote for all parties/candidates. And there you may have an argument, as Labor was removed from the final TPP count in the Teal seats which number more than The Greens.
But if you want to talk about the balance of power, then that is a different question 😉
And that is enough procrastination. Back to marking 🙁
Griff, I really dont know how you keep getting this wrong… maybe this AEC website will help.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm
Again, the majority of voters did not voter for Labor – preferences certainly flowed their way, but NO PARTY is even close to having the 1st pref support of the australian voter base.
Hope this helps!
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 8:49 pm
Thanks for your posts too. I see you get dissed a bit, (pls ignore it).
nadia88,
Since when did you arrogate unto yourself the right to tell someone who they can ignore?
I’m sorry, but you may like Badthinker’s manic speculation about an early election and the specious scenarios he creates to justify it, but the more rational among us see it for what it is, knowledge of the Commonwealth Electoral Act, or not.
====================================
I just acknowledged that he had a good understanding of the electoral laws which govern our country.
Do you have some sort of problem with that. Quite frankly, anyone on this site can ignore what/whoever they want, including ignoring you or I.
Do you wish to accelerate a nothing into something, and why?
Geelong Advertiser 18/06
Letting Geelong down: Disgraced MP Darren Cheeseman fails to appear in parliament on Tuesday.
Embattled South Barwon MP Darren Cheeseman has failed to appear in parliament yet again, with his ongoing absence set to be debated in the house.
_____________________
I am in South Barwon.
Won’t go to parliament, won’t go to the office.
Basically we have no State representative.
What happens here ? Surely we do not have to wait until 2026.
davidwh
8:41 pm
Think any speculation of an early election is just noise
Higgins has tried to get the 24 July Trial date moved back at least twice now.
Hearings in the Supreme Court don’t come cheap.
The Trial will be over 6 weeks, it’s going to be a sensation, no doubt about that.
Would any evidence given be detrimental to the Labor Party and how it came to win the May 22 election with no policies that made any sense?
Whatever Dutton has planned for tomorrow will indicate to everyone his unsuitability for leadership of this country.
Dutton is just another mug punter.
Lordbain says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:01 pm
Griff, I really dont know how you keep getting this wrong… maybe this AEC website will help.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm
Again, the majority of voters did not voter for Labor – preferences certainly flowed their way, but NO PARTY is even close to having the 1st pref support of the australian voter base.
Hope this helps!
_________
No it doesn’t help, Lordbain. First preferences are not always votes in a preferential system. Again, here is the link: https://education.aec.gov.au/getvoting/content/types-of-elections.html
It is for school age children to understand the difference between preferential and first past the post voting systems. I hope this helps 😉
What an amusing interlude.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:02 pm
Geelong Advertiser 18/06
Letting Geelong down: Disgraced MP Darren Cheeseman fails to appear in parliament on Tuesday.
Embattled South Barwon MP Darren Cheeseman has failed to appear in parliament yet again, with his ongoing absence set to be debated in the house.
_____________________
I am in South Barwon.
Won’t go to parliament, won’t go to the office.
Basically we have no State representative.
What happens here ? Surely we do not have to wait until 2026.
======================================================
How long did Federal LNP Minister David Coleman stay away from parliament and still was kept as a minister too? There doesn’t seem to be any real rules on this. At least in David Coleman’s case there wasn’t.
Did we ever find out what occured to Up North?
@Taylormade at 9:02pm
Standing Order 26 of the Victorian Parliament:
So I guess if Cheeseman continues to be absent without leave, then I suppose proceedings start about him being guilty of contempt, but most likely resolved along party lines on what the penalty should be.
Mostly Interested says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 8:36 pm
The big thing, about the HouseMate scheme, from the point of view of women, is that 50% of marriages break up. The house then needs to be sold. So, the superannuation goes towards real estate and legal fees.
Neither couple have enough left to buy a house / unit, but, usually, the woman pays the most for rental housing and other costs to care for the children, and the man remarries, making sure he has a roof over his head.
The woman ends up without owning a house at retirement age. The man owns a house, jointly, with his new partner / wife.
It is such a strange policy for the Greens to be pushing.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Did we ever find out what occured to Up North?
===========================
He last logged on during the Voice Referendum night. Probably just having a break.
Where have Fubar and Irene gone these past 2 months. Are they off the site?
Do you wish to accelerate a nothing into something, and why?
Answer: No I don’t. Why did I make a comment? Because Badthinker, despite whatever knowledge he may have, should be allowed to be called out for what is perceived to be, and not just by me, frivolous speculation about an early election. I just don’t think it’s okay to say, just ignore the people who are questioning you.
Just think about it for a moment. IF we were to be just about thrown into an early election campaign there would be much more movement at ground level within the branches of the political parties. For a start, a directive would have come out from head office putting us on an election footing. The candidates would have started organising their campaigns, and fundraising would have begun in earnest.
You know what I’ve seen? None of it.
So I think that gives me the right to call out someone whose irrational speculation about an early election is essentially mischievous in nature. No matter how much they know about the Electoral Act.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:04 pm
davidwh
8:41 pm
Think any speculation of an early election is just noise
Higgins has tried to get the 24 July Trial date moved back at least twice now.
Hearings in the Supreme Court don’t come cheap.
The Trial will be over 6 weeks, it’s going to be a sensation, no doubt about that.
Would any evidence given be detrimental to the Labor Party and how it came to win the May 22 election with no policies that made any sense?
=====================================================
Are you going to stop your conspiracy theory BS on this. Once the window for an August 3rd election has passed on July the 2nd. When that happens, as it will, are you going to apologise for all the BS you have spouted on this subject?
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:14 pm
….
It is such a strange policy for the Greens to be pushing.’
————————
Zero Net Forty within 15 years after the next election is even stranger.
Hey Griff, thanks for educating me. Now I understand how preferential voting works, and I understand why Labor has complete control of both houses… wait a minute… I’m confused again. It’s almost like there’s a difference between voting for a party, and having that vote “flow” to another party. Ah well, it’s a good thing Labor has such a strong first preference vote, and doesn’t need to negotiate with other parties… others imagine how arrogant it would seem to pretend d they have a mandate with a first pref vote of around 32 percent 🙂
Boer,
I saw this!
We need to take our steps, world-wide, towards a caring society, in very small quanta these days, but, progress can still happen 🙂
D&M, good insight. Yeah it’s a cracker for the Greens to have dreamt up. It has Max’s fingerprints all over it. They either haven’t thought through the consequences (likely), don’t care (possible), or Bandt has set a trap for Max (unlikely).
If i’m wrong about an Election on August 3 to avoid lethal fallout from the
Reynolds/Higgins Defamation Trial, why are so many Labor posters on this site losing their mind over it?
nadia88says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:15 pm
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Did we ever find out what occured to Up North?
===========================
He last logged on during the Voice Referendum night. Probably just having a break.
Where have Fubar and Irene gone these past 2 months. Are they off the site?
===================================================
Fubar has only been gone since the weekend . Irene a bit longer than that. Maybe she got a cease and desist letter from all those charities, in whose name she was slandering the Government with. As i suspect they hadn’t authorised her to use their name in that way.
I realise I shouldn’t ask, but if no evidence detrimental to the Labor Party will be given, why will the government rush to an early election to avoid the lethal fallout from it?
Unless i missed something, the house mate was an idea from over a year ago for how to help manage the housing shortage in the short term… unless the greens have come up with a new policy iv missed while gardening?
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:22 pm
Boer,
Thailand to legalize gay marriage.
I saw this!
We need to take our steps, world-wide, towards a caring society, in very small quanta these days, but, progress can still happen ‘
——————————-
True. It was nice to post some good news.
Badthinker I can’t see Labor taking any heat from the Reynolds/Higgins case and certainly not sufficient to have even a ripple impact on Labor’s election prospects.
I can see Morrison taking some heat when Reynolds legal team put him under pressure. Probably Higgins taking some heat which is unfortunate given what she has been through.
But the case will have little, if any, impact on either side’s election prospects.
Griff,
Marking, I feel your pain.
In my tiny adopted commune in France last year, I had someone ask me of I missed my job.
I said No, not at all. But I miss the teaching. I miss the interactions with the students. I miss the research, and the field work at far-flung observatories.
And she said, “So, you miss you job?”
I reacted in horror, saying, “No I do not miss the administration, the marking, the setting of assignments and exams”.
Up is down, black is white.
C@t – fully agree.
I’ve already posted I can’t see an election on 3-Aug. It’s mathematically possible, but I have stated numerous times it won’t happen for reasons previously outlined.
I am aware that the parties start hiring out venues etc and more importantly Canberra goes into a buzz like a disturbed beehive when an election is about to be called. Neither of this has occurred. but i’m watching, like you.
All I have acknowledged is that he (Badthinker) has a good knowledge of the the C.E.A.
I couldn’t care less about whether people think he is part of such and such a movement and I wouldn’t cast apsersions without knowing. All I’ve said is that he has a good understanding of the electoral Act.
Glad we are not accelerating a nothing into a something.
The logical question William. I hope you get a logical response.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:24 pm
If i’m wrong about an Election on August 3 to avoid lethal fallout from the
Reynolds/Higgins Defamation Trial, why are so many Labor posters on this site losing their mind over it?
================================================
We are not, it is just one of the most idiotic theories i’ve ever heard. One, the idea that Higgins somehow knows the date of the election is absurd. Two, that a defamation case between a Liberal staffer who was raped by another Liberal staffer in a former Liberal Ministers office. Has any lethal fallout for anyone but the Liberal party is preposterous too.
Three Liberals walk into the Bar: Reynoldson, Higgins and Morrison…
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:14 pm.
_____________________
Ok thanks. At least you answered unlike Entropy who went down the ‘whataboutism’ route as per usual.
Can’t see Labor doing anything based on your answer.
They gave us him in the 1st place and doubt they would want a byelection based on having a sexual predator in thier ranks, even if that option was available.
I reckon we are stuck with him. Not a bad wicket. Sit at home on the couch, whilst getting paid for the next 2 and a half years.
Lordbain@9.27pm
Thanks for the extra info on the policy. Even if short-term, I still have problems (the women will lose their equity in case of marriage breakdown), but at least it makes more sense as a short-term policy.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Badthinker I can’t see Labor taking any heat from the Reynolds/Higgins case and certainly not sufficient to have even a ripple impact on Labor’s election prospects.
I can see Morrison taking some heat when Reynolds legal team put him under pressure. Probably Higgins taking some heat which is unfortunate given what she has been through.
But the case will have little, if any, impact on either side’s election prospects.
==================================================
Reynolds will have to answer some question too. She has made numerous contradictory statements in the past. I suspect some heat on her over those too.
As she is retiring at next election. It probably want make much difference to
the Liberal parties election chances. How she does on that though.
So, if the Greens are pursuing a policy to sell off public housing to owner occupiers, and to loan funding to new builds, why were they opposed to the HAFF?
The only difference I see is that the Greens plan had no rational relationship between dollars committed and numbers to be built. At least the HAFF builds in eligibility to serious participants rather checking on the age and martial status of individual (images, a Greens designed flying squad to check those 24 year olds that their relationships were legit).
Also…
A good time to remind that Professor Cameron Murray is a member of the Macrobusiness expanded universe of anti-superannuation campaigners.
If you are against super, that’s fine, but it should be called out Prof Murray’s pre-existing interest in unwinding super is very convenient to defining his housing policy.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/the-great-superannuation-lie/
Zero chance of early election.March next year me thinks.
Interest rate cut or two by then hopefully.Massive amount of int students will finish their course also in Nov so if labor has done its job -a big ask -accommodation should be freed up.
Any state elections etc in March?
Answer below maybe April mind you WA state election is a cakewalk.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:24 pm
If i’m wrong about an Election on August 3 to avoid lethal fallout from the
Reynolds/Higgins Defamation Trial, why are so many Labor posters on this site losing their mind over it?
========================
No one is losing their mind over it badthinker.
There won’t be an election on August 3. It can happen, but it won’t.
Remember:
* NT election late August
* NSW & Vic redistributions (and candidates finalised) mid October,
* QLD election late October.
– I’m gunning for a window in December, but if not, then..
* Budget in March
* WA election in March (this can be pushed back if required)
* Writs issued mid April
* Election, at the latest, May 24-2025.
I’m not putting you down, just saying how it realistically is (although I’ve gone off the PB grid suggesting a Dec 2024 election). I suppose we will see in due course.
@Taylormade at 9:35pm
I suppose one penalty that could be imposed is that Cheeseman either gets fined or doesn’t get paid until he attends, so there’s that at least.
An expulsion is unlikely though.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:35 pm
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:14 pm.
_____________________
Ok thanks. At least you answered unlike Entropy who went down the ‘whataboutism’ route as per usual.
Can’t see Labor doing anything based on your answer.
They gave us him in the 1st place and doubt they would want a byelection based on having a sexual predator in thier ranks, even if that option was available.
I reckon we are stuck with him. Not a bad wicket. Sit at home on the couch, whilst getting paid for the next 2 and a half years.
===============================================
So giving an example is now “whataboutism” and there goes the legal term “precedents” i guess.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:30 pm
The logical question William. I hope you get a logical response
=====================================================
If you believe in the linearity of time you want get a logical response here. As “Badthinker” somehow believes what was posted by Higgins in social media posts 6 months after the election. Somehow effected the election outcome 6 months earlier. That Reynolds by suing Higgins over those social media posts and winning. Will be making Labors win illegitimate, as those post i assume fell through a time vortex and somehow effected the election results.
Anyway that my understanding of the level of mental delusion we are dealing with here.
Note: I never heard Badthinker say that Higgins colluded with Labor on the social media posts that Reynolds is suing on. So even if time travel were possible, there is zero evidence anyone from Labor was involved in the writing of Higgins social media posts that Reynolds is suing over though.
Badthinker @ #921 Tuesday, June 18th, 2024 – 9:24 pm
I’m not losing my mind about it. I’m just pointing out that you appear to have lost yours about it. 🙂
macrobusiness appears to be one weird little website.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Three Liberals walk into the Bar: Reynoldson, Higgins and Morrison…
———————————————————-
Here’s a nightmare for you Boerwar (love your work BTW)…
Three liberals walk into a bar.
They order a tray of drinks, which comes to $30
They divide the bill by three, ie: $10 each.
Short time later, the waiter comes up and says I overcharged. The bill should’ve been $25
The three Libs get their $5 back, decide to keep $1 each and hand the waiter a $2 tip.
So instead of the bill being $10 each, it’s now $9 each.
$9 times 3, plus a $2 tip = $29
Q – What happenned to the missing $1.
The answer is not one of my disastrous 2PP calculations either.
Enjoying PB2024 everyone. It’s been a busy year, love it. More action coming up next 6 months too.
Hello Been there if you’re lurking late at night.
Will drop by again soon.
Remember, Redbridge next Monday (maybe Sunday evening).
Another Morgan on Monday
Thurs/Fri should be YouGov and then,
Sunday 30-Jun should be Newspoll night.
These are the last polls before the S3 cuts kick in.
00:01 on Monday 1-Jul – Albo can legally request an election. Won’t happen but exciting it’s only 13 days away.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:35 pm
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 at 9:14 pm.
_____________________
Ok thanks. At least you answered unlike Entropy who went down the ‘whataboutism” route as per usual.
==================================================
It is a very easy route to take when dealing with the Liberal Party. If the Liberal Party stopped being such huge hypocrites. It would be much harder to do “whataboutism” involving them but i can’t see that happening.
State Libs in QLD not backing Duttons nuclear plan saying they not lifting nuclear ban in the state. That will please Spud no end.
“ Three Liberals walk into the Bar: Reynoldson, Higgins and Morrison…”
Is the barkeep’s name Bruce?
Err the waiter stole it!Googled this scenario above its a nightmare to understand something about it does not have to add up to 30.