The fortnightly Essential Research poll goes against the recent grain in recording a four-point drop for the Coalition to 32%, with Labor down one to 31%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up three to 8%, and the undecided component up two to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has consistently been very close throughout the year, finds Labor moving into the lead for the first time since early April by holding steady at 48% while the Coalition falls two to 46%.
Further questions record 31% support and 36% opposition to Peter Dutton’s new position on carbon emissions, with respondents told this would breach a Paris climate agreement backed by 190 other countries. There is also a 52-48 split in favour of sticking to the 2030 target over an alternative that encapsulates Peter Dutton’s position thus: “Australia should abandon the 2030 target because it’s unachievable and hurting the economy and instead focus on the 2050 target”. However, there is a 63-37 split in favour of developing renewable as the means to the end of the 2050 target over sticking with fossil fuels and waiting until nuclear is developed in 15 to 20 years.
Questions on Israel and Gaza find 52% satisfied with the Australian government’s response, although twice as many think it too supportive of Israel than too harsh, at 32% and 16% respectively. There is a four-point drop in support for Israel’s action since April to 15%, with opposition up six to 38% and a two-point increase in support for a temporary ceasefire to 21%. A question on the government’s plan to make vapes available only through pharmacies by prescription finds 56% in favour and 22% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.
After two improved results for Labor, the weekly Roy Morgan poll records a sharp reversal, recording a tie on two-party preferred after Labor led 53.5-46.5 last week. On the primary vote, Labor is down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition is up three to 38%, the Greens are down two to 13.5% and One Nation is down half a point to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1724.
Nine Newspapers has also published further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll which put support for the government’s 43% carbon reduction target for 2030 as a stepping stone to net zero by 2050 at 33%, with a further 19% favouring a more ambitious approach. Only 17% supported Peter Dutton’s approach of abandoning the 2030 target, with a further 13% rejecting emissions targets altogether.
I’m still pretty happy with my approach of only paying very much attention to Newspoll.
Morgan is impossible to take seriously.
ER is usually a more stable sort of poll. But this week it shifts significantly against the tide of a slightly worsening situation for Labor (but not seriously concerning at this stage IMO). So how are we to interpret the ER result? Particularly the jump to PHON?
I’m sticking with Newspoll.
A 3.5% change in 2PP in Morgan polling in one week? Really? That is what I call junk polling. A good example of why I pay Morgan polling no heed. It rates up there with SMH Resolve polling printed on the 18th which conveniently echoed Duttons mantra on climate change policy. Thanks David Crowe. Your masters will be pleased.
G’day MB. I figure you live in Tassie too. Which electorate? I’m in Bass.
DUTTONS BATTLERS ?
Strangely in line with Dutton’s mantra “ you can’t afford to share the cost of fixing climate change (not yet anyway) and the cost of living has gone through the roof because of Albanese reckless carbon emissions targets”, David Crowe reported June 18th about an “exclusive poll” run for the SMH by Resolve.
Here was Dutton’s mantra neatly packaged into an “independent” survey of anonymous voters. Support to take action now on climate change slipped from 55% in 2021 to 41% in 2024, take small steps on climate change rose from 27% in 2021 to 32% in 2024 and Keep the carbon emissions target set by Albanese had only 52% support whilst 30% said it should be dumped and 18% were undecided. Conclusion ; “There is a falling sense of urgency to address climate change”.
Dutton was reported as blaming the escalating cost on living on Labor’s emission reduction schedule and claiming the election would be run on “who do you trust to run the economy”.
On Tuesday Dutton back Nationals David Littleproud’s calls to
– Halt the development of large-scale renewables in regional areas
– Scrap nascent wind farm industry developments except in the already existing one in Gippsland and
– Build up to 7 nuclear power plants on sites where ageing coal fired power stations are expected to close.
After the Morrison victory in 2019, David Crowe joyously declared
“He’s brought back the Howard Battlers: the battle for the suburbs has been reignited” and “Voters swung to Morrison with a force that weakened the Labor Party’s hold on suburban and regional Australia”
9 seats changed hands in 2019. The Coalition gained four regional seats from Labor, but they lost two to Labor at the same time. They gained one outer metropolitan seat from Labor, but they lost one to Labor as well. Net gain, one seat. I don’t see how this outcome constitutes voters swinging to the Coalition with ‘a force’ How is that ‘weakening’ Labor’s position in OUTER METROPOLITAN seats ?
In any case, the joyous proclamation that Morrison had “brough back the battlers” and “reignited the battle for the suburbs” in 2019 was very short lived. So too the David Crowe prediction that “Labor is in grave danger of looking like the Party of the comfortable inner cities” (SMH 2019).
In 2022 election wipe out the Coalition lost 18 seats. Five of them were outer metropolitan seats. A a 6th OUTER METROPOLITAN seat was lost in a 2023 by election (Aston). 4 Coalition OUTER METROPOLITAN seats face the 2025 election on life support with a 2PP margin under 2% 2PP including the Opposition leader Peter Dutton (Deakin, Moore, Canning and Dickson). 4 other Coalition OUTER METROPOLITAN seats also sit in the ‘marginal seat’ zone, under 5.0 % 2PP (Hughes, Bonner, Forde and Petrie). Not one Labor seat was claimed by the Coalition anywhere in Australia at that election, and conservatives are on a permanent travel warning for INNER METROPOLITAN seats until further notice.
So much for Scot Morrison bringing back the ‘Howard Battlers’ in OUTER METROPOLITAN and PROVINCIAL/RURAL seats
‘Howards battlers’ were living in outer metropolitan seats in places like western Sydney where a string of red seats flipped to blue. These former Labor voters typically had a mortgage around their necks, worked in blue collar jobs, were concerned about interest rates, suspicious of high immigration levels, worried about Islamic terrorism and often held socially conservative views.
Maybe we will be talking about ‘Dutton’s Battlers’ in outer metropolitan seats after the coming election, but I strongly doubt it. Meanwhile, Dutton will be taking a gamble on PROVINCIAL electorates if he announces today when and where he is going to plonk his 7 nuclear power plants ahead of the election. Or maybe it’s a snap leadership spill. Please no. ‘Taylors battlers’ doesn’t have the same zing.
It is the year of investigating/enquiring into investigators/inquiries
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/internal-nt-icac-allegations-of-inappropriate-behaviour-made-against-commissioner-michael-riches/news-story/6a5bb52a4961414efebf4f51b2a1369c
I actually am gaining more respect for Morgan for 2 reasons:
1. They interview people face to face.
2. BECAUSE their polls jump around. As I am no fan of herding. I think polls SHOULD jump around when interviewing a random sample of people, in a random neighbourhood, week to week, as Morgan does.
UK
Ipsos poll shows just how deep a hole the Conservatives are in
The findings from today’s Ipsos MRP poll show in no uncertain terms just how much trouble the Conservatives are in. Our model has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453. To compare, in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour party won 418 and John Major’s Conservatives 178. On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/ipsos-poll-shows-just-how-deep-a-hole-the-conservatives-are-in
Peter Dutton will announce nuclear reactors will be commonwealth-owned and operated under similar schemes to those overseeing Snowy Hydro and the NBN, as Jim Chalmers attempts a renewables reset by placing new “community benefit” principles at the centre of Labor’s Future Made in Australia Act.
The Australian can reveal the tightly held nuclear policy to be announced on Wednesday, which does not incorporate wider climate and emissions targets, was not fully briefed to shadow cabinet members on Tuesday night to avoid locations being leaked. It’s understood Mr Dutton has briefed MPs whose electorates could host a nuclear reactor.
The release of the policy was brought forward as a result of high levels of support in community surveys commissioned by the Coalition across seven proposed reactor sites. Coalition MPs will give the green light to the nuclear policy on Wednesday morning. This comes as Dr Chalmers will declare the government’s plan for net zero emissions is “mainstream and middle of the road” and release Treasury’s Sustainable Finance Roadmap and new legislative details underpinning the government’s Future Made in Australia plan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-peter-dutton-department-of-nuclear-energy-coalition-plan-to-own-plants/news-story/3edb777880bae33847fa37800ffbd42b?amp
Mmm….blame cost of living on renewables and climate targets & in the same breath propose nuclear reactors instead.
#weatheronPB
Against the cold sky,
a bright, lonely, jet hurries,
to escape the dawn.
Being in a workshop all day yesterday and then at a function last night, I’ve only just caught up with yesterday’s news.
Do we really believe Matt Keane when he says he won’t run for federal parliament, when only days ago his name was linked with running in one of the Teal seats for the Liberals, and now he’s resigned from state parliament?
The NSW budget looks like a standard Labor budget, and if the news vox pops are any indication, it seems like people broadly approve.
I can’t see what the wider benefit of a Nuclear Power policy is for Dutton if, all the sites are in Queensland, and all the sites will be in already-held Coalition seats, and the rest of Australia is against nuclear power?
Not to mention:
* how much will it cost the taxpayers of Australia (and how socialist of Dutton to propose this way of doing it)
* how much will the Interconnectors to the rest of Australia from Queensland cost? They’re going to have to be built if this is Dutton’s grand plan to replace Renewables with Nuclear.
Oh well, I guess this allows for a new Queensland slogan:
‘ Queensland, beautiful one day. People bright green the next.’
Voting Intention for @Telegraph via Savanta 2,046 UK adults, 14-16 June
19pt Labour lead
Lab 40 (-6)
Con 21 (=)
Reform 14 (+1)
LD 11 (=)
Green 4 (-1)
️SNP 3 (+1)
Other 5 (+2)
Good post Cat. I am green with envy.
Will Dutton also announce the locations of the fallout shelters?
The insanity of the Liberals Nuclear policy is slowly leaking.They have spent decades hanging shit on the public service and now they are going to have them build Nuclear reactors?
Sandman @ #14 Wednesday, June 19th, 2024 – 6:55 am
I hope not! 😆
People need to ask Dutton, what taxpayer services and programs will you cut to pay for the nuclear reactors, or are you planning to keep the Budget in deep deficit to pay for them and how much in specific interest payments each year will that add to the Deficit?
He has to have a fully budgeted and costed policy if he wants the taxpayers and voters of Australia to approve it at an election.
Does anyone believe in magic ?
If Dutton is announcing a nuclear thingie today and it is accepted by both the residents of the relevant nuclear sites and the public at large, Dutton is a GOAT.
The greatest sideshow ever, the miracle man, to be knighted and made Emperor for life.
How Dutton, having been in Parliament for yonks and has kept his genius hidden is the magic .
I’m expecting to be less than excited by whatever is announced by Dutton and the LNP today.
Morrison was and is a shonk. Dutton not even that good.
The MSM are complicit.
A brand new nuclear industry. FFS.
How is this even possible when the Qld LNP, likely to be the next state government has ruled out nuclear? As I understand it, Qld laws prohibit nuclear power production.
Sandman at 6:23 am
…
9 seats changed hands in 2019. The Coalition gained four regional seats from Labor, but they lost two to Labor at the same time. They gained one outer metropolitan seat from Labor, but they lost one to Labor as well. Net gain, one seat. I don’t see how this outcome constitutes voters swinging to the Coalition with ‘a force’ How is that ‘weakening’ Labor’s position in OUTER METROPOLITAN seats ?
712 thousand more formal votes cast in 2019 compared to 2016, Labor’s share only increased 50 thousand, plenty of outer Sydney Labor seats were close to falling.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
In 2022, L-NP lost 675 thousand on the 2019 numbers, even though 406 thousand more formal votes were cast.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm
Confessions @ #20 Wednesday, June 19th, 2024 – 7:11 am
Dutton is obviously planning to overrule the state government. That’s the only way around it that I can see. Compulsory Acquisition of the sites.
Back in 2017, the majority of coal fired baseload power generators were 30-50 year old assets and the average retirement age since 2012 has been 35 years (Australian Energy Council).
Where are the current functioning coal fired power stations in Australia ?
NSW- Bayswater, Eraring, Mt Piper, Vales Point
QLD – Callide B, Callide C, Gladstone, Kogan Creek, Millmeran, Stanwell, Tarong, Tarong North.
VIC- Loy Yang A, Loy Yang B, Yallourn power station
WA- Collie, Muja, Bluewater
Other States – ACT, NT, SA and TASMANIA have no functioning coal fired power stations.
It will be interesting to see which of these sites will be targeted for Nuclear generated power generators in todays Coalition meeting and what the moderates like Birmingham and Archer have to say about it afterwards.
Morning all. Despite all the talk about Liberals and nuclear power, is there actually a detailed policy anywhere? I can’t find anything except references to Dutton’s claims.
Further to Cat’s comments (agreed) Dutton’s delusion is easily shot down.
– yes, nuclear plants in Qld means transferring billions from southern states to Qld. Each plant will cost $20+billion.
– all the nuclear expertise is being developed in southern states near shipyards
– There are perhaps 30,000 coal jobs in Qld (25,000 in mines). Those will go. A nuclear plant might employ 200.
– giving each worker a $500,000 payout would cost $15 billion. A single nuclear plant will cost more.
Opposition to Nuclear Power stations in Australia has always been based on heath and safety issues [which have never been satisfactorily addressed, imo].
If Labor and The Greens aren’t opposing it on those grounds, they’re not serious about opposing it.
Will not be surprise to see Dutton again break his promise being transparent and honest , refuse to give all the details on his nuclear thought bubble
1- Costings
2- All Locations
3- Time line of completion
4- Who is going to build them
Cameron Murray points out astutely that compulsory superannuation is an absolute dog of a policy – ineffective, inefficient, and inequitable as a retirement income policy. If people want to buy a superannuation product that’s their funeral but it shouldn’t be compulsory. For most people superannuation is terrible value for money compared to using the same funds to pay a deposit on a home that they will eventually end up owning outright.
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/murray290120_0.pdf
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
By dumping 2030 targets, Dutton reveals a worrying truth about the Coalition, declares Shane Wright. He says, “No wonder the business community is miffed at the Coalition and its new position. It has been battered and bruised by the best part of two decades of policy indecision, missteps and stupidity that has cost businesses in two ways: higher energy bills and missed opportunities to invest in new technologies that could deliver long-term financial benefits.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/by-dumping-2030-targets-dutton-reveals-a-worrying-truth-about-the-coalition-20240617-p5jmi6.html
A stable of NineFax journos tell us that the nation’s largest coal-fired electricity suppliers have rejected Coalition leader Peter Dutton’s argument that Australia should abandon its 2030 climate target, as the federal opposition prepares to unveil the sites of future nuclear power plants today.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coal-power-giants-reject-dutton-s-bid-to-dump-2030-climate-target-20240618-p5jmpf.html
Peter Dutton will announce nuclear reactors will be commonwealth-owned and operated under similar schemes to those overseeing Snowy Hydro and the NBN, as Jim Chalmers attempts a renewables reset by placing new “community benefit” principles at the centre of Labor’s Future Made in Australia Act. The Australian reveals the tightly held nuclear policy to be announced today, which does not incorporate wider climate and emissions targets, was not fully briefed to shadow cabinet members on Tuesday night to avoid locations being leaked.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-peter-dutton-department-of-nuclear-energy-coalition-plan-to-own-plants/news-story/3edb777880bae33847fa37800ffbd42b?amp=
Peter Dutton wants voters to forget about the future and embrace a Vonnegut-like fatalism. It won’t end well, predicts Peter Lewis who says, “While the opposition’s argument – ignore the consequences in favour of simpler pleasures – has some resonance, the majority of voters have not fallen for the smokescreen”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/peter-dutton-labor-government-vape-ban
Queensland is emerging as the nuclear capital under the Coalition, with speculation it could be home to up to two reactors in the opposition’s energy plan. Amy Remeikis and Sarah Basford-Canales say such a move would pit the federal Coalition against the state LNP just months out from the Queensland election. David Crisafulli, the LNP state leader, said yesterday he would not repeal the state’s nuclear ban if elected and nuclear was “not on our plan, not on our agenda”.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/19/queensland-could-be-nuclear-hub-under-coalitions-new-energy-plan
Peter Dutton’s plan to cut the 2030 climate target would be an own goal for Australia’s Pacific ambitions, warns Wesley Morgan.
https://theconversation.com/peter-duttons-plan-to-cut-the-2030-climate-target-would-be-an-own-goal-for-australias-pacific-ambitions-232699
Matthew Knott and Olivia Ireland write that Anthony Albanese has insisted his government has improved relations with China without giving ground on core values, as he revealed he complained directly to Chinese Premier Li Qiang about embassy officials’ disrespectful treatment of journalist Cheng Lei.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ham-fisted-clumsy-albanese-breaks-silence-on-chinese-officials-blocking-cheng-lei-20240618-p5jmng.html
But why did Albanese take so long to call out the rudeness and belligerence of Chinese officials at a signing ceremony at Parliament House, asks Matthew Knott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/did-anthony-albanese-miss-his-love-actually-moment-with-the-chinese-premier-20240618-p5jmrr.html
If Michele Bullock and the RBA board are committed to ensuring unemployment stays under control, the first move to lower interest rates should not be as far off as some fear, opines Millie Muroi.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-the-rba-chief-nails-her-job-we-might-all-hold-on-to-ours-20240613-p5jlnh.html
The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned big-spending government budgets risked stoking demand at a time when the economy was still too strong, as governor Michele Bullock conceded it would be a “slow grind” back to the inflation target. Michael Read writes that in a hastily arranged press conference, Treasurer Jim Chalmers rejected the RBA board’s warning, saying budgets were just one factor determining the outlook for interest rates.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-leaves-cash-rate-on-hold-warns-on-budget-spending-risks-20240618-p5jmnq
Karen Maley says that Bullock is tiptoeing through a political minefield.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/bullock-tiptoes-through-a-political-minefield-20240618-p5jmoq
The RBA is risking repeating the errors that led to the deep and dark recession of the early 1990s. Stephen Koukoulas reports.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/reserve-bank-playing-with-fire–beware-of-the-creeping-recession,18690
Alan Kohler reckons we need an AEMO for housing to match supply with demand.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/06/18/alan-kohler-aemo-housing
The NSW treasurer delivered a no-frills second budget yesterday, but it was a very Labor one, says Alexandra Smith who takes us through the highlights.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-two-areas-where-daniel-mookhey-has-made-his-mark-20240617-p5jmei.html
The SMH editorial says that for months now we have been told to brace for the worst in Labor’s second budget since returning to power. But the reality delivered by Treasurer Daniel Mookhey substantially differed from the doom and gloom rhetoric.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-s-housing-misery-underwrites-labor-s-second-budget-20240618-p5jmrf.html
The refusal of major banks to answer questions on the closure of regional branches has called into question the legitimacy of the think tanks that team up with them, Dale Webster writes.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-forces-behind-australias-regional-bank-closures,18694
The Albanese government will introduce laws to split the CFMEU and allow its manufacturing division to leave the union in response to John Setka’s war with the AFL over the past week. Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke will introduce the bill soon after parliament resumes next week to allow manufacturing to exit if it has support from a ballot of members in a move likely to fuel tensions between Labor and the CFMEU’s Victorian construction boss.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/labor-to-introduce-laws-to-break-up-cfmeu-after-setka-stoush-20240618-p5jmsx
Strong business investment, population growth and government budgets have pushed Australia up a leading ranking of international competitiveness. Small nations including Singapore, Switzerland and Denmark led the latest Institute for Management Development (IMD) World Competitiveness Yearbook report, released yesterday, Tom McIlroy reports that Australia rose to 13th place out of 67 countries, helped by strong commodity prices and a healthy national jobs market.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-s-competition-at-best-level-in-13-years-report-20240618-p5jmvm
Australia’s 500 biggest companies made $98bn in “crisis profits” off the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, new analysis has found. In 2022 and 2023, companies including Woolworths, Hancock Prospecting, National Australia Bank, AGL Energy and Harvey Norman reaped billions of dollars in profits, more than 20% above their 2018 to 2021 average, according to a new report by Oxfam Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/19/australias-biggest-companies-made-nearly-100bn-in-crisis-profits-amid-covid-and-ukraine-war
Peter Martin has written a cracker of an article about the nature of the Australian pharmacy field. He says Australia’s pharmacies don’t much compete with each other. Many are commonly owned, especially those near each other. They are ripe for disruption. Is an Uber moment just around the corner?
https://theconversation.com/the-chemist-warehouse-deal-is-a-sideshow-pharmacies-are-ripe-for-bigger-disruption-232586
Apartment owners and strata managers are unprepared for the costs and complications of securing building insurance for blocks with electric vehicle owners and charging facilities, explains Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/apartment-insurance-another-hurdle-for-ev-adoption-20240618-p5jmss
Victoria is set to go past its own deadline to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 12 by the end of the year, after introducing its mammoth 1000-page youth justice bill to parliament on Tuesday. The Allan government conceded the change might not be implemented this year as first promised when the government committed to the policy in 2023. Ministers expected it could take place in early 2025.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/raise-the-age-set-for-2025-as-state-unveils-mammoth-youth-justice-bill-20240618-p5jmtj.html
Chris Vedelago reports that Australia’s national disability scheme is scrambling to discover the identities of dozens of sex predators, violent offenders and other serious criminals who are receiving financial support that allows them to live in the community but who could pose a safety risk.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/shorten-asks-states-to-hand-over-lists-of-criminals-getting-ndis-money-20240611-p5jkxc.html
Bianca Hall reports that the Australian Koala Foundation has lashed out at the Victorian government’s koala strategy, saying it inflates the population size by potentially more than 20 times.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/show-them-to-me-victoria-accused-of-vastly-exaggerating-koala-counts-20240617-p5jmel.html
Labor senator Fatima Payman has called on the Albanese government to recognise a Palestinian state, arguing the move would help bring to an end the bloody, months-long conflict on the Gaza strip. James Massola reports that in an opinion piece for Al Jazeera, Payman said the world had “witnessed the mass killing and displacement of Palestinians and the devastation and destruction of Gaza”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-senator-payman-breaks-ranks-again-on-palestine-20240618-p5jmrh.html
Meanwhile, Daniel Hurst reports that The Australian Border Force has “intervened” at the border to ask further questions of at least three Australians suspected of planning to travel to Israel to serve in the country’s military. The government is also warning Australians who seek to serve with the armed forces of a foreign country “to carefully consider their legal obligations and ensure their conduct does not constitute a criminal offence”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/australian-border-force-questions-people-suspected-travelling-join-israeli-army
It took 12 years for the ICC to finally agree that its jurisdiction holds in Palestine, while Israel continued to act with absolute impunity in Gaza. That may finally be about to change, posits Wingerei.
https://michaelwest.com.au/icc-warrant-against-netanyahu-heralding-change/
The International Energy Agency and OPEC have often diverged in their outlook for the oil market. The differences in their forecasts, however, have rarely been as wide as they are today. Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us that in its annual report, released last week, the IEA depicted a “staggering” surplus of oil – 8 million barrels a day – by the end of this decade as oil companies increase production in the face of waning demand.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-oil-mystery-that-has-the-world-on-edge-20240618-p5jmm1.html
Yesterday Joe Biden announced a new effort to provide a path to citizenship to hundreds of thousands of immigrants in the US illegally who are married to US citizens, an election-year move that contrasts sharply with Republican rival Donald Trump’s plan for mass deportations.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/biden-offers-path-to-citizenship-to-spouses-of-us-citizens-in-election-year-gambit-20240618-p5jmwb.html
Trump’s enablers in Congress are a fascinating case study of political amnesia, writes Sidney Blumenthal who says the Republicans who prop up Trump’s cult of personality recently engaged in their strangest ordeal of self-abasement yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/trump-republicans-congress-political-amnesia
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Mark David
Simon Letch
Fiona Katauskas
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Here goes Spooner again!
From the US
Good morning all.
According to the Oz the nuclear reactors are going to be run by a model similar to the Snowies.
Remind me how Snowy 2.0 is coming along. How long is the delay already? How much has the cost blown out already?
Targets will be kept secret until after the election.
This stuff just writes itself: Dutton’s Nuclear Mushroom Brainfart.
Peter Dutton will announce nuclear reactors will be commonwealth-owned and operated under similar schemes to those overseeing Snowy Hydro and the NBN
And there’s the rub.
Both turned into shit shows by the Coalition.
Snowy Hydro 2.0 – Shit show
The NBN – Shit show
And really, really expensive and costly to the taxpayer, shit shows at that.
Better economic managers? My fat aunty!
Socrates
– There are perhaps 30,000 coal jobs in Qld (25,000 in mines). Those will go. A nuclear plant might employ 200.
From wiki:
Hay Point:
https://nqbp.com.au/our-ports/hay-point
Nicholas, since you’ve possibly accidentally doxed yourself via auto fill (which I’ve done twice myself here), are you seriously representing that Greens policy is to scrap compulsory superannuation?
I’ve been reading Cameron Murray’s magnum opus Rigged, and I find it perceptive, elegantly written, and filled with practical proposals.
I like the main recommendation of the book: to remove the “grey gifts” completely, or at least require people to buy them at prices that reflect their true value.
I like the overview of how the grey gifts were created and dispensed, and how powerful networks of favour-traders emerged to control the grey gifts in order to extract wealth from the public.
Cameron Murray’s recommended changes to laws and regulations in the sectors where grey gifts abound – property development, banking, superannuation, mining, infrastructure development, pharmacies, private hospitals and private health insurance, and so on – would reclaim grey gifts for public benefit.
Cameron Murray’s recommended solutions to favour-trading are also great because they focus on prevention. Randomly selecting foreign technical experts to make major decisions that are mostly technical in nature but have a discretionary element; using randomly selected and appropriately resourced citizen juries to choose the key decision-makers in public sector organizations, statutory organizations, universities, large private firms that depend on government contracts for most of their revenue, large private media companies that have a large influence on how the public views itself and its public policy options; capping the compensation paid to the top executives of universities and public sector bodies at the compensation paid to the Prime Minister.
The book is also helpful for what it says about which anti-corruption measures to avoid because they are very unlikely to help. Increasing the complexity of regulations. Increasing transparency without changing anything else (like the amount of resources allocated to prosecuting violations of labour law, environmental law, and public sector governance law; or the scope of activities and scenarios covered by legal definitions of corrupt conduct). These ideas are duds because regulatory complexity favours the powerful, who are experts at navigating regulation, and because the considerable transparency that already exists about the nature and the scale of grey gifts and favour-trading does not translate into changed behaviours.
A true populist movement would harness the ideas in Cameron Murray’s book to make the case for transformative change that benefits the public.
Cameron Murray makes a convincing case for doing big things like ending compulsory superannuation and highlighting how efficient the Age Pension is at financing retirees; creating a strong public option for goods that don’t lend themselves to a high degree of competition (like banking, housing, transport systems, telecommunications systems); resourcing public education and public health care to the extent needed to provide every aspect of health care and education, to every person, with a high standard of quality, and without user fees.
I would add to that list a public option for jobs, whereby the federal government enacts a Job Guarantee to create minimum wage jobs on demand, for anyone who wants to participate, with the federal government covering the wage and non-wage costs of the scheme, and with the employers being not-for-profit organizations with who are strongly engaged at the grassroots level of communities (NGOs, cooperatives, local governments, etc). That would replace the current jobactive / Workforce Australia scheme, which is just a boondoggle for commercial firms who can’t solve the root problem (the lack of suitable jobs for job-seekers).
Cameron Murray should be commended for writing this book. It is a rallying cry and a manual for beating the grifters who rob us blind.
Labor over reached as usual on renewables Dutton filling vaccum.
Labor is looking down the barrel of an interest rate increase in coming months according to the reserve bank yesterday.
History tends to rhyme late term interest rate increases have played a part in Howard/morrison gov falls.
Negative feedback loops everywhere for failing federal Labor government.
Just remember folks pretty boy treasurer hand picked this governor.
Blinky Bill back fron his Swiss junket Yet? See his NDIS is a disaster.
True. But like WAers, Qlders don’t strike me as people who welcome their state govt being overrode by the feds.
Thanks BK!
Um, $25 + $3 is $28, not $27.
They each paid $9.33, not $9.
From the SMH letters page… on the well-received NSW Budget.
“It’s a well-balanced and well-thought-out budget by a smart treasurer and top-shelf premier. Unlike the self-obsessed Liberals this looks like it’s a budget that … tries genuinely to deal with reality – housing, GP bulk-billing, bush health services – head on.”
Baz Milas
“Just the beginning, but at least a step in the right direction.”
Richard Lynch
“The commitment on social housing is admirable. If Matt Kean is accusing Labor of overspending on this – what’s his alternative? Continue to turn a blind eye to the thousands of homeless?”
Adrienne Carlson
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-people-s-verdict-what-you-made-of-the-nsw-budget-20240618-p5jmue.html
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, June 19, 2024 at 7:39 am
Peter Dutton will announce nuclear reactors will be commonwealth-owned and operated under similar schemes to those overseeing Snowy Hydro and the NBN
And there’s the rub.
Both turned into shit shows by the Coalition.
Snowy Hydro 2.0 – Shit show
The NBN – Shit show
And really, really expensive and costly to the taxpayer, shit shows at that.
Better economic managers? My fat aunty!
————————
Like the former federal lib/nats government – NBN was predicted to cost $4 billion, the final cost was well above $100 billion
If the LNP win the Queensland State election they will just agree to whatever plan Dutton has.
Is this the shot in the arm that Labor needs to hold on to government?
EDIT: alternatively, if Labor runs an anti-nuclear campaign in Queensland but still lose, does that give Dutton a mandate for nuclear in Queensland?
You have too much time on your hands, Nicholas, and not enough sense to see the obvious faults in Murray’s ‘elegantly written’ treatise. Such as, freeing people from contributing to superannuation will only turbo-charge house prices even more, especially if CGT and Negative Gearing are not addressed and amended. How easily you are gulled. Doesn’t it even embarrass you slightly that you have thrown in your lot with the capitalists who want to destroy Super?
Btw, have you apologised to Douglas and Milko, yet?
Rewi @ #41 Wednesday, June 19th, 2024 – 7:54 am
But the state LNP have just recently announced their opposition to nuclear power. So where would that leave a recently-elected LNP state government? Breaking a promise on Day 1.
More than 550 hajj pilgrims die in Mecca as temperatures exceed 50C
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/18/hundreds-of-hajj-pilgrims-die-in-mecca-from-heat-related-illness
RE: Dutt’s Unicorn Reactors.
With a cost blow out of $10 billion plus dollars for Turnbull’s Snowy 2.0, and no sign of delivery.
Dutt now wants to dump the cost of his “Nuclear Fantasy” onto the current and future generations of Australian taxpayers.
So much for the party of small government.
If the simple task of boring a couple of tunnels and inserting a couple of pumping stations has been become so expensive and complex, I can only imagine how long and how costly it will be to construct 7 nuclear plants in Australia.
We would be better served by subsidising the cost of installing solar panels and individual / community battery systems or making such a mandatory part of the building code, as it was done for water tanks.
Are we going to be graced by King Chucky III later this year?
King Charles III’s tentative plans to visit Australia in October, his first trip Down Under since taking the throne, seemed a little dicey following his majesty’s recent cancer diagnosis.
But the royal visit looks a surer bet with the King’s private secretary Sir Clive Alderton in Sydney this week for a bit of advance reconnaissance, where he’ll meet NSW Governor Margaret Beazley’s official secretary Michael Miller to discuss the prospective trip.
Government house is also in talks with barrister Geoffry Underwood, president of the exclusive all-male Australian Club, about hosting Alderton at the Macquarie Street institution (which just rejected former prime minister Scott Morrison’s membership request) later this week.
While it doesn’t mean the King’s visit is a lock, planning is clearly under way for Charles to drop in around the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa this October, while potentially stopping in Sydney for the bicentenary of the NSW Legislative Council. </i?
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/lehrmann-defamation-case-judge-to-headline-women-s-media-conference-20240618-p5jmt5.html
Pueo @ #44 Wednesday, June 19th, 2024 – 7:56 am
It’s only the beginning.
And Dutton wants to put off addressing Global Overheating for another 20 years.
The comrades are back!
To each according to his needs and from each according to his ability.
Free everything, plus the UBI and, presumably with MMT thrown in.
The means of production to be nationalised.
Comrades, I see yet another dictatorship of the proles nirvana on the horizon.
It is just that the words have been bodgied up for modern social media tarts.
The thing about the various tries at the dictatorship of the proletariat is that they ALL become remarkably corrupt in remarkably short order. I know, really, truly, it is only capitalists who are corrupt. Never the worthy and noble proles!
Citizen committees plus foreign technocrats to make all the key decisions. Who could ask for betterer and fairerer?
The earlier versions of Greens policy statements abounded with these committees. They were everywhere.
Farmers were going to be managed at local levels by them. These committees were erased from the public policy statements once the comrades twigged that 90% of Australians don’t want to be ‘managed’ by ‘citizens committees’.
But those citizens committees are still there in the hearts and minds of the Trots who have now completed their takeover of the Greens. Because the wet dream of the Trots is that THEY run those citizens committees.
The Australian Age Pension is by far the most efficient and the most equitable retirement income policy that Australia has ever devised. Why would you want to make the purchase of a superannuation product compulsory when those products are vastly inferior to the Age Pension? If you think the full Age Pension should be more generous – and I’d agree with that – it should be at least $630 per week for a single person instead of the current $558 per week – then make that case. But don’t argue that the utterly corrupt, supremely inefficient financial sector deserves a massive hand-out in the form of a captive market, which is what compulsory superannuation is. Owning your own home outright with no debt is MUCH MUCH MUCH more useful to your financial security than having a meagre superannuation balance. Superannuation should be optional, not compulsory. Compulsory superannuation is an article of faith among Baby Boomer Labor supporters but among retirement income policy experts it is recognised as a dud.
The best positions for reactors according to Howard’s nuclear task force was along the coast.
My prediction that Netanyahu was looking for a unicorn and that Heshbollah was going to be it is looking rather better than my prediction, some months ago, that peace in the ME was imminent.