The fortnightly Essential Research poll goes against the recent grain in recording a four-point drop for the Coalition to 32%, with Labor down one to 31%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up three to 8%, and the undecided component up two to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has consistently been very close throughout the year, finds Labor moving into the lead for the first time since early April by holding steady at 48% while the Coalition falls two to 46%.
Further questions record 31% support and 36% opposition to Peter Dutton’s new position on carbon emissions, with respondents told this would breach a Paris climate agreement backed by 190 other countries. There is also a 52-48 split in favour of sticking to the 2030 target over an alternative that encapsulates Peter Dutton’s position thus: “Australia should abandon the 2030 target because it’s unachievable and hurting the economy and instead focus on the 2050 target”. However, there is a 63-37 split in favour of developing renewable as the means to the end of the 2050 target over sticking with fossil fuels and waiting until nuclear is developed in 15 to 20 years.
Questions on Israel and Gaza find 52% satisfied with the Australian government’s response, although twice as many think it too supportive of Israel than too harsh, at 32% and 16% respectively. There is a four-point drop in support for Israel’s action since April to 15%, with opposition up six to 38% and a two-point increase in support for a temporary ceasefire to 21%. A question on the government’s plan to make vapes available only through pharmacies by prescription finds 56% in favour and 22% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.
After two improved results for Labor, the weekly Roy Morgan poll records a sharp reversal, recording a tie on two-party preferred after Labor led 53.5-46.5 last week. On the primary vote, Labor is down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition is up three to 38%, the Greens are down two to 13.5% and One Nation is down half a point to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1724.
Nine Newspapers has also published further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll which put support for the government’s 43% carbon reduction target for 2030 as a stepping stone to net zero by 2050 at 33%, with a further 19% favouring a more ambitious approach. Only 17% supported Peter Dutton’s approach of abandoning the 2030 target, with a further 13% rejecting emissions targets altogether.
And if the Coalition keep complaining about the memes, we should bring up the AI fakes of Indigenous supporters of the No case they used for the referendum.
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:08 pm
Looking good for LNP’s prospects of getting volunteers on the booths for the first time since the 2013 election, when there was massive support for repealing S18[c].
==================================================
Have the majority of people that volunteer for the LNP. Been people who have run foul of the “Racial Discrimination Act 1975”?
Hmm, I find this Tweet pretty disturbing. I regard OSINT Defender as a very well informed source I follow on Twitter.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
“Talks over the last 24-48 Hours between Senior Israeli and U.S. Officials, has reportedly caused “Extreme Concern” among several Members of the Biden Administration, who believed that an Israeli Campaign against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, likely Opening with by a Large-Scale Air Campaign over Lebanon and Southwestern Syria, is now Imminent and could begin at any point over the next Three Weeks.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1804286215157616948
And this one isn’t suggests this is true:
https://x.com/TheocharousH/status/1804259654945677547
If this happens IMO Labor must drop all support for Israel if it hasn’t already. Debates over a two state solution for Palestine are one thing. But if Netanyahu starts a wider ME war then that crosses many lines. October 7 does not justify this.
Australia’s faith in AUKUS shouldn’t blind us to what else is going on in the world.
https://thehill.com/opinion/4720002-netanyahu-needs-to-speak-truth-on-saudi-nuclear-deal/
Entropy @ #1804 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 4:16 pm
It was the, ‘You have a right to be a bigot’ repealing of S18
Meanwhile in France, it’s 8 days to go until the First round election day. Latest polling from Ifop for 18-21 June has these numbers.
RN: (Le Pen’s Far Right) 35%
NFP: (Socialist Left-Green Alliance) 29%
ENS: (Macron’s Centre) 21.5%
LR: (Centre Right) 6.5%
Others: 8%
Seat Projections (after the Second round on 7 July):
RN: 200-240
NFP: 180-210
ENS: 80-110
LR: 40-60
Others: 13-25
Netanyahu is going to be speaking to the US Congress soon. Will be wild! 😐
Kirsdarke @ #1807 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 4:21 pm
Phew! Le Pen cannot win on those numbers. If Coalitions form around the Left and Centre.
It’s certainly been the case that the Libs have trouble with the boots on the ground thing. I can’t really se Duttons brainfart helping.
A point that seems to have been missed in all this – all the old Coal power plants the LNP are relying on to keep on running for another 20 years in this farcical plan are breaking down more often. What are we to do if it’s a 45-50°C heatwave for a week across the East Coast and multiple coal plants have to be shut down? People will die in the hundreds in the resulting blackouts, assuming they go through with the threat and shut down any and all further renewable energy projects.
At least with Solar energy investment, the hotter it gets, the more power is in the grid that can keep the AC’s running. That was a lesson learned by Texas last year as increased Solar energy generation got them through their heatwaves.
EDIT: Article here – https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/28/texas-solar-power-grid-heat-wave/
The page numbers gone again. With only an “older comments” tab now that i can see. Looks like problems are still ongoing.
And then we are gone again. It’s like a toothache. Starts Friday arvo, fades away, then comes back with a vengeance on the weekend when everyone is closed. Sad face.
Oh back again happy face…maybe not.
Another lie from Dutton, I see:
Dutton said Albanese had told West Australians he was committed to the gas industry while assuring Canberrans that no taxpayer funds would be spent on gas projects under his Future Made in Australia plan.
Both things are true. The Future Made In Australia Plan is for critical minerals processing projects in WA
NOT Gas projects. I mean, how can you ‘make’ gas, it’s already there. 😐
Hence, for Dutton to go on and say this:
“The people of the great state of Western Australia can pick a fraud from the east coast, there’s no doubt about that. And they picked a fraud in this prime minister,” Dutton said in another line that was not included in his speech notes distributed to the media.
Is a flat out lie. The Prime Minister hasn’t lied to either group of Australians.
1. Labor is committed to the gas industry.
2. No taxpayer funds will be spent on gas projects.
3. Because the Future Made In Australia Plan is about, um, making things. Especially in WA.
At least with Solar energy investment, the hotter it gets, the more power is in the grid
================================================================
Not exactly. Solar panels need sun – temperature not so much. Solar panels become much less efficient at higher temperatures.
Centre
I haven’t seen you around for years.
You still a happy punter?
imacca @ #1810 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 4:23 pm
Don’t know, imacca. The political Viagra that the BSD-In-Chief has administered this week has certainly worked on centre.
It needs to be repeated over and over that Dutton’s plan is not for nuclear, it’s for continued coal, gas and oil.
@Team Katich at 4:30pm
Alright, I stand corrected on that. Just I thought of that article about Solar energy saving the Texas power grid during its heatwave last year.
Kirsdarke,
You are forgetting that the Coalition’s plan is not to keep the coal-fired plants limping along, before they were defeated their policy was to have the taxpayer fund new Gas-Fired power plants. I’m sure that’s still their policy.
And there for all to see is the nasty derogatory face of the right wing nutters.
Dutts is going full Rabbott!
What next?
Shirt front Albo…
Team Katichsays:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:30 pm
At least with Solar energy investment, the hotter it gets, the more power is in the grid
================================================================
Not exactly. Solar panels need sun – temperature not so much. Solar panels become much less efficient at higher temperatures.
====================================================
That is true, heat pump hot water is what is more efficient in a heat wave. Though possibly not really required in a heat wave.
@Rex Douglas at 4:32pm and C@t at 4:34pm
Yep, we know. Doesn’t mean we can’t ask questions like this.
Dutton did the same to the Voice, seemed pretty effective. If he gets salty about it, too bad.
@Bizzcan – good catch. Journalism is basically dead as a profession now… just all shills.
Have I missed something, or has Player One gone vewy, vewy quiet since Dutton announced his nuclear plan? I thought Player One would be the first one to storm to the battlefront to fight against it?
If he gets salty about it, too bad.
Yep, he’s not Dictator Dutton yet. Though he’s given us every indication today that that’s exactly what he will be.
Radio station news in tas reports Dutton defending his nuke plan by quoting The Australian..the bastion of truth, enlightenment and balanced journalism, not. Click, no more radio news.
Further interesting data for the French election from OpinionWay.
First Round votes for eliminated ENS candidates are projected to vote 34% NFP, 41% RN in the second round.
While votes for eliminated NFP candidates are projected to vote 44% ENS, 36% RN in the second round.
I remember a 40+C day on the Murray trying to keep beer icy cold in a camp fridge using a solar blanket and battery. It wasnt pretty.
‘C@tmomma says:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Have I missed something, or has Player One gone vewy, vewy quiet since Dutton announced his nuclear plan? I thought Player One would be the first one to storm to the battlefront to fight against it?’
——————————
Nuclear eco-tourism?
For those who had to scroll back to find it:
Bizzcan @ #1585 Friday, June 21st, 2024 – 11:24 pm
L-NP vulnerable to another MediScare over funding for the Dutton Plan.
Ah Cat P1 has an eye on the prize, the seat of Wills like Bandt does. Do Not Disturb on the PB door there. Probably at a pro Palestine rally .
C@t:
Are you having any joy on the househunting front?
And I fully expect The Age and the Herald Sun, who were enthusiastically calling the former Premier of Victoria,. ‘Dictator Dan’, to now apply the epithet to a political leader who is actually sounding like one.
The Dutton brain fart has so many wonderful features.
It delays and derails renewables as the Australian taxpayer forfeits massive opportunity cost.
The Australian taxpayer will “invest” in something that the private sector would never touch.
Significant water resources will be consumed in operation.
After paying way over the odds to build, the Australian taxpayers will enjoy the privilege of paying for the most expensive energy available on the planet.
It can later be onsold by the Australian taxpayer at an enormous loss while retaining all normal costly obligations and still paying for the most expensive energy on the planet.
Over and above normal costly obligations associated with this technology, the Australian taxpayer and their successors will be on the hook for any accidents.
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:46 pm
L-NP vulnerable to another MediScare over funding for the Dutton Plan.
====================================================
LNP always vulnerable to the actual facts. Like any con the LNP are relying on their liars triumphing over the truth. They do have many allies in the MSM that will parrot LNP lies too.
I’ve just read a story on the ABC website reporting pretty much verbatim Mr Dutton and his deputy Sussan Ley bagging out Albanese with a few comments from one of the ALP ministers contesting his plucked from his ear claim of a trillion dollars for renewables. The rest is a pile of hot cockatoo poop about Rudd and Gillard’s time in office and a red-hot claim from Ley alleging we have a liar in the lodge. All of this stuff uncontested and reported as valid comment when it is just lopsided nonsense , ALP might get a better deal out of Sky at night. The ABC is a flipping mess.
Cooling water in a Nuclear Plant is continuously recycled.
NP has been around 75 years.
All the pitfalls were ironed out years ago.
Labor’s problem, as always, is there’s no grift for them in the Dutton Plan.
I well remember Thomas’s Senate hearing in ’91, where Hill accused him of sexual harassment, despite which his nomination passed muster.* I thought at the time that this was not an appropriate appointment. Fast forward 33 years and he’ll go down in history as one of the most biased, corrupt Supreme Court justices of this once revered court – I blame Ginni. Oh, and look who headed the judiciary committee at the relevant time.
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZURHD5BU1o8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjm9me192Tg
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-goes-off-script-labels-albanese-a-child-in-a-man-s-body-20240622-p5jnug.html
He’s taking a leaf out of Trump’s playbook.
phhhhhhhhhhhhhhhht
Ironed out? Until the cooling water runs out.
https://balkangreenenergynews.com/climate-change-water-scarcity-jeopardizing-french-nuclear-fleet/
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:00 pm
Cooling water in a Nuclear Plant is continuously recycled.
NP has been around 75 years.
All the pitfalls were ironed out years ago.
Labor’s problem, as always, is there’s no grift for them in the Dutton Plan.
======================================================
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-09/explainer-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-nova-kakhovka/102454194
Badthinker says:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:46 pm
L-NP vulnerable to another MediScare over funding for the Dutton Plan.
______________________
As the Dutton plan is a fully Taxpayer funded plan it is a pretty big scare, you either have an ‘uranium tax’ to pay for it or make a cut something else.
Maybe have some reactors in 2045 or Medicare or the NDIS or PBS or Aged Pension..
Confessions @ #1835 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 4:48 pm
None, as my son hasn’t got a job and I’m on the pension. Other people keep getting the houses we go for and I refuse to go and live in a crack shack with paper-thin walls on a major thoroughfare. Yet.
We’re okay for 2 months after we have to get out of here because we have friends who are heading off overseas on holiday for 2 months (2 different sets of friends, one for all of August, the other for all of September), so we are house-minding rent free for them. By this time my son should have been working for long enough to persuade real estate agents to accept us for a good house. Fingers crossed.
If not that then we have a friend whose house renovations will be done by October, she is staying in the house next door right now and will be going back to her house in October. We have been offered that place then. We don’t really want to take it because it’s really far away from where my son will likely be working. But we will if we have no alternative.
Right now we are still putting in offers but aren’t expecting any success, due to our present situation.
‘Socrates says:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Hmm, I find this Tweet pretty disturbing. I regard OSINT Defender as a very well informed source I follow on Twitter.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
“Talks over the last 24-48 Hours between Senior Israeli and U.S. Officials, has reportedly caused “Extreme Concern” among several Members of the Biden Administration, who believed that an Israeli Campaign against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, likely Opening with by a Large-Scale Air Campaign over Lebanon and Southwestern Syria, is now Imminent and could begin at any point over the next Three Weeks.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1804286215157616948
And this one isn’t suggests this is true:
https://x.com/TheocharousH/status/1804259654945677547
If this happens IMO Labor must drop all support for Israel if it hasn’t already. Debates over a two state solution for Palestine are one thing. But if Netanyahu starts a wider ME war then that crosses many lines. October 7 does not justify this.
Australia’s faith in AUKUS shouldn’t blind us to what else is going on in the world.
https://thehill.com/opinion/4720002-netanyahu-needs-to-speak-truth-on-saudi-nuclear-deal/‘
—————————–
It all depends on the framing, IMO.
Top down, this is a genocidal war between Iran and Israel.
The day after Oct 7 Heshbollah fired the first shots. Israel responded.
As if by mutual consent these exchanges have largely been self-limited by both sides. Despite this the casualties are likely to be in the order of hundreds. Something like 180,000 people on either side of the border have been displaced.
Israel, having largely eliminated active Hamas fighters in the south can now turn pretty well its full military attention to its the north. This is the age old benefit of interior lines.
In the immediate sense there is an opportunity for Israel to de-escalate by delivering an agreement with… Hamas. Which is the on thing Netanyha will not do. Neither will Hamas which appears to believe that the more suffering the Israeli’s inflict on Gazans, the better Hamas’ situation is. This is basically your only ‘winning’ option if you are running the Greens’ ADF as your defence strategy.
Meanwhile, the Houthis continue both to fire stuff at Israel and to blockade the Red Sea.
All wars end in complete defeat or a negotiated settlement. The latter requires two sides to negotiate. I was 100% wrong earlier about the latter earlier in this war.
Few was are isolated events, complete in themselves. Many, if not most, are best seen as episodes in a more prolonged struggle interrupted by periods of peace.
All that said, since both sides clearly have made genocidal intentions known the ethical position for Australia is to support neither in war and both in peace making.
The reality is that Australia’s position is almost completely irrelevant to the outcome.
C@t:
It sounds as dire as it is in the city. I’m confident something will come up for you both, and in the meantime you’ve got friends you can lean on.
In happier news, the Lions were brilliant this afternoon, thrashing Port 73 – 152.
I know Adelaide media will be focused on Port and Ken Hinkley, but it would be nice if some of them acknowledged the other team actually played well.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 8:47 am
It looks like Britishers don’t want Nigel Farage as Opposition Leader after the election and so have started bolstering Tory numbers.
Would be good to see MI5 release file on Nigel being Putin’s useful idiot..
I do hope the Greens realize that their efforts to politically support Dutton in blocking all and sundry might bear bitter fruit for the people in Australia.
Confessions @ #1848 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 5:19 pm
Yeah, lucky for us. Storage of our stuff for 2 months is equal to about 2 weeks rent, so that’s doable.