The Sydney Morning Herald’s Resolve Monitor display of Resolve Strategic polling has been updated with the latest bi-monthly state voting intention results for New South Wales, which have Labor down a point from March-April to 32%, the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, independents up one to 15% and others up two to 7%. This suggests a Labor lead of around 52-48 on two-party preferred, which is slightly wider than the 50.5-49.5 I estimated from the recent RedBridge Group state poll, but still a swing to the Coalition of upwards of 2% from the March 2023 election. Chris Minns holds a 38-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, out from 37-16, with an already hefty uncommitted component out from 47% to 49%. The poll was compiled from two sets of Resolve Strategic’s monthly national surveys, with a sample of 1000.
UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald now has a report on the poll, which further relates that 50% support the government’s policy of higher density housing around train stations with 31% opposed.
In other New South Wales state electoral news, two by-elections are looming, one imminently, the other on a date to be determined. The former is for the New England region seat of Northern Tablelands, to be held on Saturday following the retirement of Nationals member Adam Marshall. Marshall was elected four times from 2013 to 2023 with primary vote shares of between 63.3% and 73.5%. With his designated Nationals successor Brendan Moylan facing only low-key competition among a field of five, there is little reason to expect much different this time. If you’re still interested to learn more after that sales pitch, you are directed to my guide to the by-election, and are invited to follow my coverage of the count on Saturday night, which I can relate that no other media outlet is bothering with.
The second by-election is that resulting from Tuesday’s announcement by former Treasurer Matt Kean that he will call time on his state parliamentary career, resulting in a vacancy in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Hornsby. This follows suggestions last week that Kean might challenge Paul Fletcher for preselection in Bradfield, where the teal threat has seemingly intensified following last week’s publication of proposed new electoral boundaries. However, Kean has scotched the idea, with Paul Sakkal of Sydney Morning Herald reporting Liberal sources saying he would only pursue the seat if Fletcher retired. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports two names have been suggested as Kean’s successor in Hornsby: deputy Liberal leader Natalie Ward, who failed in a bid to move from the upper house to the lower before last year’s election by seeking preselection in Davidson, and James Wallace, Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer and moderate factional ally of Kean. However, both are said not to be planning on contesting.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Those numbers are a little disappointing for the NSW ALP, given that Minns I think is a strong media performer, while Speakman is so low profile he is almost invisible. I guess with the ALP in power both at state level and federally, it’s hard for them to avoid a degree of blame for the economic pressures many Australians are feeling. But I’d still be confident that Minns will get a second term as a minority government. I can’t see Dutton’s nuclear nonsense helping the LNP here in the Hunter, or anywhere else for that matter.
The polling in NSW puzzles me, Chris Minns seems to be extremely well liked and he presents well in a media sense, and he has some good performers in his team like Ryan Park, Daniel Mookey and Paul Scully. Also, the Opposition Leader Mark Speakman is totally invisible.
I guess federal issues are at play here, cost of living and so on, and it’s a grumpy electorate in NSW, that’s my impression anyway from anecdotal evidence.
Anyway, very early still in the lifecycle of this minority Labor Government.
There’s a byelection coming up in the seat of Hornsby, due to Matt Kean’s resignation from politics, I doubt Labor will field a candidate, so it might be a contest between the Liberals and a Teal candidate perhaps.
Minns is a strong performer leading a bang average government and a cabinet with a longer tail than the local third XI.
They’d want to hope nothing happens to him.
I suspect if Perrottet’s still in the Parliament at the end of the year there’ll be internal rumblings about drafting him back. I can’t see that backbench MP’s would have much faith in Speakman winning.
There was a report in the SMH this week that Perrottet will leave politics shortly. Apparently earning just $180K as a backbencher, relative to what he’ll earn in the corporate world, is the motivation. So Speakman might be safe, for now.
I thought Perrottet had some good qualities, as well as bad ones, like totally cocking up the NSW workers compensation scheme. Honest, unlike his corrupt predecessor. Very socially conservative, but never tried to legislate his social views into law-unlike Gladys, who never took on the hard Right in the NSW Libs. Plus Perrottet was actually more progressive than Minns on gambling reform and land tax reform, much to Minns’ discredit. Natalie Ward I think is much better in the media than Speakman, but she’s in the upper house so not a threat to Speakman at the moment.