Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)

An alliterative trio of seats faces redistribution-related preselection complications.

The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.

Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:

• The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.

• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.

• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.

• Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,081 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 22
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  1. Is Duttons election strategy to go fully Maga? How he spoke at the federal liberal party council suggests so. Overriding state legislation, personal attacks on Albo, and anything but renewables points to tactics that are part of Maga strategy. Yes these are red meat to the carnivores type of events but Dutton knows his words will be widely reported on.

    It works well in the US for multiple reasons, but here in Australia I’m not so sure. Compulsory voting with preference flows alone makes it a questionable choice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/22/peter-dutton-nuclear-power-energy-state-bans-attacks-pm

  2. ,… former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, …
    She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

    Unsubtle message to Barnaby?
    Dutts is too shrewd to go Nationalism, the strategy is to make reindustrialisation possible with the Nuclear Energy plan and take Labor seats outside the inner cities.
    edited

  4. I can thoroughly recommend reading this interview with Professor Ty Christopher, an electrical engineer with four decades of experience in the power industry. He is the director of the Energy Futures Network within the faculty of engineering at the University of Wollongong.
    He very clearly gets to the facts about energy production and use for Australia and provides excellent points to debunk Dutton’s electoral “Hail Mary”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-not-anti-nuclear-i-m-anti-bulls-why-this-energy-expert-says-dutton-s-plan-ignores-reality-20240620-p5jnes.html

  5. MI,
    In Australia the demographic that Dutton is attempting to appeal to is the Tradies and Tradie wives. They swear a blue streak, are ‘rugged individualists’ and generally low information, unless it’s about footy or the kids, of which they have many because they can afford to, and houses, investment and primary residence, so, with big mortgages because the bigger your place the more impressed your mates are. Also mine workers.

    These are broadly equivalent to the MAGA types in America. They also live in the seats Dutton wants to target that Labor holds now.

  6. Thanks, BK. I wonder if Ted O’Brien will be asked any searching questions today by David Speers? I imagine not. Or, if he is then he’s probably been coached in the Coalition method of avoiding answering and sticking like glue to the talking points.

  7. If the last parliament question time was any indication , Ted O’Brien could be the designated Bellower , which was formerly Joe Hockey

  8. From BK’s link:

    Fitz: Do you foresee the electricity bills in NSW and Australia going lower, as renewables keep coming online?

    TC: Yes. And the more renewable energy there is, the lower those bills will be.

    Fitz: OK, but while you may not want to be political about it, we are talking at a highly political time, with the massive wind farm just being announced off Wollongong at much the same time as the Coalition has announced their nuclear plans, with seven sites around the country and …

    TC: [With some agitation.] If the Coalition is all in on nuclear and thinks it’s the best thing since sliced bread, then why did they say nothing and do nothing about it for the last decade that they were in power? I’ve asked opposition energy spokesperson Ted O’Brien that question many times, and I’m yet to receive an answer.

    The factors against building nuclear power stations in Australia … are incontrovertible.

    Fitz: You are very strong on it.

    TC: When people ask me, am I anti-nuclear, I look them in the eye and I say “no, I’m anti-bullshit”. And what we’re hearing at the moment from the Coalition in terms of the timing and the costs of nuclear and where it fits into the energy grid … it is largely bullshit. We need to pull back from all of this. Renewables are the cheapest. They are reliable enough for what we need, they are the best way to bring down customer bills, and they are the best way for us to decarbonise our economy, which is what we have committed to do.

    Fitz: Critics say, if these wind farms are so great, why not put them off Bondi Beach? Sydney’s where our heaviest population is, so does that make a certain amount of sense? And last time I was at Bondi, the wind blew my toupee off!

    TC: Bondi Beach doesn’t have a steelworks. BlueScope steelworks at Wollongong consumes a massive amount of energy every day, about 2400 gigawatt-hours – the equivalent of solar export from 240,000 homes. Look, it’s no accident why Newcastle and Wollongong, the two most important industrial centres of NSW, have had coal power stations nearby. It is for exactly the same reasons two zones off both towns have been designated for offshore wind. They both have large industries that need the power. The problem when people politicise the debate is that the first casualty is truth, and the second one is common sense.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-not-anti-nuclear-i-m-anti-bulls-why-this-energy-expert-says-dutton-s-plan-ignores-reality-20240620-p5jnes.html

    I guess that’s why Duddon has to go personal. He can’t win on logical or factual.

  9. Also, this blows the, ‘but the whales!’ lie out of the water:

    Fitz: How far above and below the surface do they go?

    TC: The largest turbines available, the 15-megawatt ones, are actually 260 metres tall from the surface of the water.

    Fitz: About twice the height of the Sydney Harbour Bridge!

    TC: Yep. But they’re like an inverse iceberg. Despite that big top, they only go about 25 metres below the surface, apart from the tethering lines anchored on the seabed. And lately, the way of getting those anchors in the seabed tends to use a screw-type technology, which is favoured as having less noise impact, especially on whales and other marine species that come from pile-driven technology.

    Fitz: On the subject of whales, marine species, and birds, the upside seems to be a lot of pundits who previously demonstrated no concern at all for environmental matters are suddenly rabid greenies, devastated at the environmental destruction that the wind farms will visit on the environment.

    TC: I have looked at academic papers all across the world, as have my colleagues at the University of Wollongong. I remain unable to find any scientific studies that show that offshore wind energy technology has a negative impact on whales once it’s been constructed. That’s not to say that we don’t need to do more detailed environmental studies for the specific locations of these offshore wind farms in Australia. But without wanting to be too flippant, I do note that before any whale has reached the coast of the Illawarra or the Hunter, that whale has had to navigate icebergs, ships, offshore oil and gas rigs and undersea reefs. The ocean is very big, and whales are very good at navigating.

  10. I do note that before any whale has reached the coast of the Illawarra or the Hunter, that whale has had to navigate icebergs, ships, offshore oil and gas rigs and undersea reefs. The ocean is very big, and whales are very good at navigating.

    Hardee har har.
    The issue is Low Frequency sound generators built on Whale migratory routes, not obstacles to Whale navigation.

  14. It would appear there are still issues, at least for me on mobile in the chrome browser images aren’t displaying like normal

  15. Wind turbines 260 m tall out in the water anchored to the seabed via guy ropes.
    Here’s what the pro Renewables experts say:

    For balance, we should mention a singular downside of these large wind turbines. Unfortunately, like an airplane’s props, the wind blades cannot be seen when in faster motion. This means that birds cannot see them.

    This also means it is important to try to carefully locate these turbines where they will do the least damage to bird wildlife. Perhaps, with everyone thinking about the problem, it will allow us to find a solution to this real-world drawback of wind turbine use.
    Other than this threat to bird wildlife, these wind turbines are a stellar way to generate electricity from clean renewable wind energy.

    https://naturesgenerator.com/blogs/news/how-fast-does-a-wind-turbine-spin

  16. “… any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.”

    But … but … “there are no factions in the Liberal party!” (Malcolm Bligh Turnbull)

  18. Point to which birds are flying around 20km out to sea off Wollongong or Newcastle?

    Also, as the quote points out the wind turbines will be ‘carefully located’.

    So, tl:dr whales are fine, birds will be fine.

  19. Thank you again to BK for that link to a story outlining rational doable energy policy which is being pursued by our current government after ten years of politicised culture war inertia. The photos of the LNP leadership brains trust says it all about the LNP right now. As for “Dutts” being shrewd, well if Industrial scale BS trumping common sense and sensible, in fact essential action on energy is shrewd well he is certainly ,like any snake oil salesmen shrewd. Its is time for the LNP to cease this media backed schoolyard idiocy .

  21. Badthinker @ #10 Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 – 7:25 am

    I do note that before any whale has reached the coast of the Illawarra or the Hunter, that whale has had to navigate icebergs, ships, offshore oil and gas rigs and undersea reefs. The ocean is very big, and whales are very good at navigating.

    Hardee har har.
    The issue is Low Frequency sound generators built on Whale migratory routes, not obstacles to Whale navigation.

    I’m sure pingers can be attached to the wind turbines, if that’s what’s really worrying you (hint, not really, it’s just another attempt by you to push nuclear as the alternative):

    Macquarie University Research Officer, Vanessa, records the movements of migrating whales. Researchers are testing if underwater alarms can reduce the number of migrating Humpback Whales caught in shark nets.The alarms, known as pingers, emit a low frequency noise that the whales can hear, acting like a sonic warning to avoid the nets designed to protect swimmers.Taronga Zoo’s Marine Biologist, Dr. David Slip, said: “Each year, particularly during the migration period, Humpback Whales get entangled in shark nets. This usually results in serious injury and sometimes causes the whale’s death.”“Lots of effort has gone in to using various acoustic devices to deter whales from swimming into the nets, but there’s been little research to see if it’s actually been successful,” said Dr. Slip.“As the east Australian Humpback Whale population continues to increase, whales are more likely to encounter nets and fishing gear, so this project aims to test the effectiveness of low frequency whale alarms.”“In this first instance, we would love to know if the whales divert their migration path or not when they hear a pinger,” said Dr. Slip.The project involves researchers from Macquarie University tracking the movement of whales from the southern headland of Botany Bay. In the vicinity, a mooring has been dropped offshore with a pinger attached. “The whale observers aren’t told if the pingers are turned on or off, so the data cannot be biased,” said Dr. Slip.“We’re hoping at the end of this year’s whale migration period, we’ll have some conclusive evidence to let us know if whale alarms work.” said Dr. Slip.

    https://taronga.org.au/media/media-release/2018-07-11/whale-alarms-sound-researchers

    And it actually seems that the research suggests that low frequency noise that the whales can hear helps them to divert their path and avoid obstacles.

    Next lie to be debunked, Badthinker.. 😐

  22. [‘Nigel Farage has been criticised for suggesting the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by expanding the European Union and Nato military alliance eastwards.

    The Reform UK leader told the BBC that “of course” the war was President Vladimir Putin’s fault.

    But he added that the expansion of the EU and Nato gave him a “reason” to tell the Russian people “they’re coming for us again”.

    Former Conservative Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is not standing in the election, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Mr Farage was like a “pub bore we’ve all met at the end of the bar”.

    Conservative Home Secretary James Cleverly said Mr Farage was echoing Mr Putin’s “vile justification” for the war and Labour branded him “unfit” for any political office.

    The former UKIP leader later said he was one of “the few figures” that had been “consistent and honest” on the issue.

    In an interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson, Mr Farage was challenged over his judgement and past statements, including when he named Russian President Vladimir Putin as the world leader he most admired in 2014.

    “I said I disliked him as a person, but admired him as a political operator because he’s managed to take control of running Russia,” Mr Farage said.

    He was then pressed over a social media post in February 2022, when he claimed the Russian invasion of Ukraine was “a consequence of EU and Nato expansion”.]

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cldd44zv3kpo

    I’d imagine Dutton would be most impressed with this poser.

  25. Badthinker, if you’re truly worried about whales & birds then you’ll be ecstatic when
    1. the noisy, polluting (of both air & water) coal freighters stop moving across our oceans, ‘coz they affect whales & fish & seabirds;
    ( have you seen what ship oil does to wildlife?)
    And
    2. The coal-fired power stations stop polluting the air the birds fly in ( & we have to breathe)

  26. No surprises here. And it isn’t just the Gaza protests but those climate protestors who destroy public property as well.

    The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, finds clear majority support for public petitions as well as a narrow majority of 53 per cent in favour of public rallies when voters are asked about public protests of all kinds.

    But it shows there is only 14 per cent support for protests that occupy buildings or set up camps on university lawns.

    Only 10 per cent of voters believe it is legitimate to block access to a politician’s electorate office, a key finding after political leaders blamed pro-Palestinian activists for vandalising offices and forcing some to close.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-do-we-want-peaceful-protests-20240621-p5jnpl.html

  27. Another story on the 9fairfax site debunks Mr Duttons coke can carcinogenic toxic waste claim. Experts expect a reactor would produce tonnes of waste each year. How are these LNP inaccuracies being supported by any media outlet. Nuclear power is dangerous, dirty, exceedingly expensive, will take decades to build – and if it is so viable why hasn’t the LNP already built them seeing they have been the government for most of the last 30 years? The whole proposal is almost too stupid for words

  28. Trouble for Labor in them thar hills
    The Israel declaration of war on Hamas came after the October 7 terrorist attack by militants in southern Israel that resulted in 1,400 deaths and more than 300 people being taken hostage. Fast forward to May 2024 and we get this headline from Michael Glasson at ABC NEWS
    ‘The Israel-Hamas war is influencing Australian politics as Muslim and Arab voters question Labor’s response’.
    “There is a solidifying perception that the ALP has taken Australia’s Arab and Muslim communities for granted and isn’t adequately escalating their deep concerns about the war in Gaza”, despite Labor’s shift to being more critical of Israel’s offensive in Gaza in March 2024 , five months after the war started, and not strong enough in its position on the nature of the war”.
    Looking at the Israel -Gaza war in terms of election impact, the reality is that Muslim and Arab voters outnumber Jewish voters by 8 to one in Australia. In electorate terms, Jewish voters are found in large numbers in only four current electorates (Wentworth, Macnamara, Kingsford Smith and Goldstein). Two are held by Labor and the other two are held by Teal Independent MPs.
    Jewish voters (85% live in NSW and Victoria) tend to vote mostly for personal interest reasons rather than a collective in Wentworth, Kingsford Smith, Goldstein and Macnamara rather than a block.
    In Higgins (before the seat was abolished) Katie Allen was a strong advocate for Jewish people, condemning antisemitism and advocating for a strong, safe and secure Israel. She lost her seat to Labor in 2022. Josh Frydenberg lost his seat in Kooyong despite being Jewish and in a Wentworth by election in 2018, new candidate Dave Sharma lost the seat despite being Jewish and Morrison’s promise to move the Australian embassy in Israel to Tel Aviv. Sharma won the seat in 2019 but lost it again to an Independent in 2022.
    Jewish voters might change their habits and vote as a collective in 2025 because some of the leaders are not happy with the current government. They won’t be voting Green anytime soon, but more might put their weight behind the Independents in Wentworth and Goldstein. Any temptation to turn away from Jewish Labor MP Josh Burns in Macnamara would have to be substantially motivated and even a block Jewish vote against the Labor member for Kingsford Smith wouldn’t threaten the incumbent.
    However, a warning shot came from an Australian Jewish Association spokesman who claimed in May 2024 on SKY NEWS that Labor had been “dreadful on blatant antisemitism” and was throwing the Israeli community “under the bus” . He said Education Minister Jason Clare had been silent on the “antisemitism” of pro-Palestinian activists on campus protests at universities and this radio silence was for political reasons, That is, an attempt to “avoid election difficulties in southwest Sydney electorates” where most Arab and Muslim voters reside in NSW. Jason Clare is the member for Blaxland, an electorate which has the highest number of Muslim and Arab residents in the country.
    Meanwhile, no longer is it mostly Imam’s across the country calling for boycotts of Labor sponsored events and getting sporadic media attention from time to time. The Israel-Hamas war has triggered the establishment and mobilisation of a nation -wide Muslim political advocacy group, Muslim Votes Matter. This mob is already showing signs of a well-informed, active, well presented political voice that cannot be simply ignored. Politicians of all colours, but particularly Labor MPs, who choose to dismiss this movement as more of the same minority group complaints s may do so at their own peril, especially in the southwestern electorates of NSW and pockets of Victoria where the Muslim and Arab voter presence is significant.
    Muslim and Arab voters are present in significant numbers in 24 seats. 11 of those seats have a Muslim or Arab elector presence above 10% of the electorate. A further nine have an Arab or Muslim presence above 5%. Electorates with a significant Muslim and Arab or Jewish voter presence have been historically consistent Labor held seats in all but one (Banks). The only other seat not in the Labor camp right now is Fowler in NSW won by an Independent over a new Labor candidate (Kristine Kennealy) in 2022.
    These numbers suggest a uniform Muslim or Arab primary vote swing against Labor in the right seats, as the newly formed Muslim Votes Matter group suggests, “could put the current government into minority”. Muslim votes who you ask –
    This national organisation was born out the Israel-Hamas war.
    “The 2023-2024 war on Palestine marked a turning point for our community and the catalyst for the establishment of Muslim Votes Matter. As 35,000+ innocent Palestinian civilians are massacred (mostly women and children) our community’s elected MPs and Senators showed us how little they cared about our opinion”.
    Looking ahead to the next Federal election, Muslim Votes Matter declares-
    “The Muslim community is the largest, and among the fastest growing, minority group in Australia. Our collective voting block is the most valuable , yet underutilized asset we have. There are over 20 seats where the Muslim community collectively has the potential deciding vote. We are in a strategically powerful position to elevate those who bring our issues to the forefront. We are in an equally powerful position to identify those who take us for granted and ignore us. Muslim votes can shift the current government into minority”.
    That might be over-stating their potential influence in many seats, but you get the point. An anti-Labor bias might be read into the seats the Muslim Votes Matter group is targeting, but the reality is most Muslim or Arab people in Australia live in Labor held electorates with Banks (Liberal) and the once very safe Labor seat of Fowler (Independent) the most notable exceptions.
    This group has begun the process of deciding who to recommend voting for on a seat by seats basis by conducting an assessment of the performance of each individual MP based on what they have or haven’t had to say [particularly in the Parliament] on key issues stemming from the Israel-Hamas war. Ed Husic and Ann Aly will probably be safe from too much scrutiny because they are Muslim.
    Sufficed to say it this point, things are not looking good for most Labor MPs in NSW and Victoria in terms of Muslim Votes Matter approval. You can read the details of what they are most upset about at the website themuslimvote.com
    Albanese has some work to do. Good luck with that one mate.

  29. Princeplanet
    What is missing from the debate on waste is a definition of what it is. Coke cans and tonnes mean nothing without such a definition.
    As my avatar, W Edwards Deming, once said, “Nothing has any meaning unless the method of measurement is known”.

  30. Maude Lynnesays:
    at 8:12 am
    …
    The Albanese Governent is unwilling to deny the Renewables rollout will end up costing $1.3 Trillion by 2050.
    In other words, they either don’t have any idea, or they do, but the truth is politically unpalatable, take your pick.
    Sooner or later, Labor is going to have to level with the Australian people on the true costs of Renewables and ask for a mandate based on facts about the drawbacks to NP.
    How they’ll manage that after the silliness of last week beats me.

  31. UK Polls:
    Telegraph Lowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again
    Lab 42 (+2) Con 19 (-2) Reform 16 (+2) LD 9 (-2) Green 5 (+1) ️SNP 3 (=) ⬜️Other 6 (+1)
    2,103 UK adults 19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)

    Observer UK The Labour lead is now 20 points •
    Labour 40% (n/c) •Conservatives 20% (-3) •Reform 16% (+2) •Lib Dems 12% (n/c) •Greens 9% (+2) •SNP 3% (+1)
    Fieldwork: 19 – 21 June. Changes from 12 – 14 June.

  32. Anxious over Trump, et al? Turning to the Stoics may relieve the anxiety of what the future may hold according to the author of this thoughtful article.

    [‘Don’t let the future destroy the present:

    It pays to look ahead in the world of politics. Pollsters predict trends. Pundits gauge the potential impact of political gaffes. Party leaders assess the implications of court decisions. Worry about the future is constant.

    That type of worry, though, spreads like a contagion to voters. People obsess about what will happen to them if the wrong candidate is elected. Some fixate on nightmare scenarios about the country descending into civil war. This grinding anxiety echoes Shakespeare’s famous line from “Julius Caesar”: “A coward dies a thousand times, a hero dies but once.”

    Stoics only die once, though, because they reject fixating on the future. Stoicism teaches people to separate what they can control from what they cannot. Their advice: don’t become engulfed by nightmare political scenarios that may or may not come to pass.

    “The Stoics say that he who suffers before it is necessary, suffers more than is necessary,” Holiday says. “The idea that you should wake up every day in miserable anticipation of a thing that may or may not happen is to punish yourself on top of whatever the pain that will come from that thing actually happening,” Holiday says.

    Pigliucci says Stoics coped with the political turbulence of their day by focusing on what they could control: their emotions. He cites the Serenity Prayer, which is often recited at 12-step programs. The prayer is attributed to Reinhold Niebuhr, a towering Christian theologian from the 20th century, and asks God to “grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”

    “Seems like excellent advice for the upcoming presidential elections,” Pigliucci says. “Have the courage to do your duty as a citizen; vote, maybe send money or volunteer for a campaign; then accept the outcome because it will be what it will be.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/22/us/stoic-philosophers-election-anxiety-cec/index.html

  33. Sandmansays:
    8:30 am:
    … Josh Frydenberg lost his seat in Kooyong despite being Jewish and in a Wentworth by election in 2018, new candidate Dave Sharma lost the seat despite being Jewish …
    Is Dave Sharma Jewish?
    Don’t think so.

  35. Placing turbines to minimize bird kills is, IMO, far more important than the NIMBY requirement that turbines don’t spoil human views. Guess which will win out with the Greens and the Liberals astroturfing wind turbines like crazy.

    Globally, there are around 350 species of seabirds, most of which are pelagics and which would therefore be in potential conflict with turbines.

    In terms of numbers, wind turbines off the east coast of Australia are potentially in the migratory path of over 20 million Short-tailed Shearwaters. All other pelagics would be present in lesser numbers. Fortunately, most pelagics glide on wave power or use the ground effect. This means the spend most of their lives at levels below the blades.

    Unfortunately the great trans oceanic migrations of smaller terrestrial birds can happen at greater heights.

    Placing turbines for birds is a critical consideration. That said, there is nowhere to place them that will not have a negative impact. We can’t have ANY global energy source without substantial biodiversity impacts.

    The other impact is that marine structures invariably ATTRACT marine life, generally adding to local biodiversity.

  36. Farage touting Putin and Tate?
    There’s something for Dutton to consider. He might as well go the whole Trump hog.

  38. Dave Sharma was Australian ambassador to Israel where he was highly regarded.
    I believe he has Indian heritage.

  39. Sharma was born in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada in 1975. His father is a Trinidadian of Indian heritage and his mother was from Sydney.[4][5] His family moved to Turramurra in Sydney, in 1979 – wikipedia

  40. Sunak appears to have thrown the towel in. Perhaps he’s turned to
    stoicism:

    [‘Rishi Sunak appeared to run up the white flag of surrender at the Conservatives’ summer garden party fundraiser, with what guests saw as an acceptance that he will not be prime minister after 4 July.

    The event at the Hurlingham Club, one of London’s most exclusive venues, on Thursday, was meant to be one of the party’s major fundraisers during the year, and came in the middle of an election campaign where the Tories have, according to insiders, run out of money.

    Mr Sunak was due to attend but, because of his date with the audience on the BBC’s Question Time, only appeared by video message instead, while other cabinet ministers showed up in person.

    But the highlight was supposed to be an auction of different lots, where wealthy supporters such as Lord Ashcroft would bid to help raise party funds.

    One lot included classic election campaign posters from the past, which Mr Sunak promised to sign personally.

    However, crucially, when the lot was being offered to guests they were assured that Mr Sunak “will sign it before 4 July so it will be guaranteed to be signed by a sitting prime minister.”

    Guests have told The Independent that it was taken as a sign that Mr Sunak and his top team have “given up” and “raised the white flag” on winning and are resigned to defeat on 4 July.

    The same claim was made when defence secretary Grant Shapps first warned against a Labour “super majority”. Mr Sunak has denied this and told the Question Time audience on Thursday that he “will fight to the end and not give up”.]

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sunak-tories-fundraiser-general-election-b2567097.html

  41. A secret plot to disendorse Trump? Sounds like the campaign is unravelling.

    Arizona delegates to the Republican National Convention gathered this month in a Phoenix suburb, showing up to get to know each other and learn about their duties.

    Part of the presentation included a secret plan to throw the party’s nomination of Donald Trump for president into chaos.

    The instructions did not come from “Never Trumpers” hoping to stop the party from nominating a felon when delegates gather in Milwaukee next month. They instead came from avowed “America First” believers hatching a challenge from the far right — a plot to release the delegates from their pledge to support Trump, according to people present and briefed on the meeting, slides from the presentation and private messages obtained by The Washington Post.

    The delegates said the gambit would require support from several other state delegations, and it wasn’t clear whether those allies had been lined up. One idea, discussed as attendees ate finger foods, was for co-conspirators to signal their allegiance to one another by wearing matching black jackets.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/22/trump-convention-revolt-right-wing-arizona/

  42. The Coalition’s pledge to build seven nuclear reactors as part of its controversial energy plan could cost taxpayers as much as $600bn while supplying just 3.7% of Australia’s energy mix by 2050, according to the Smart Energy Council.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/23/peter-duttons-nuclear-plan-could-cost-as-much-as-600bn-and-supply-just-37-of-australias-energy-by-2050-experts-say

    I find this $600b for Dutton’s Nuclear Tax hard to take – my back of the coaster estimate is $2 Trillion, even moreso if calculate based on the half-life of the waste produced.

    But the eye-popper is the 3.7% of Australia’s energy mix from nuclear!

    Maybe Plutonium Pete can increase this % by mandating EVs for everyone?

  43. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 6:07 am

    Dutts is too shrewd to go Nationalism

    ______________

    Except that time his blackshirts went around the streets of Melbourne asking for papers please.

  44. Thank you, Boerwar. I note for the record that the birds you evidence are migratory, that they use the power of wave wind-created updraft to keep them aloft and birds are generally good at navigating obstacles. Their pin point avoidance of trees constantly fascinates me.

  45. After perusing the website, Instagram and Facebook page, there is little mention of political parties apart from one instagram post. Only sitting members. It is an attempt to pressure individual MPs in electorates with high proportions of residents that identify as Muslim by isolating them from their party. There is no comparison with the positions of other candidates. So while the talk is of change, it is MP positions at this stage, not MPs themselves. Not something that Albanese needs to or even should address at this stage, as it would legitimise what is, for all intents and purposes, a new lobby group. There are no names and just a street address without number. It is likely a Millennial that has started this up based on the order of social media channels started.

  47. You are right Bad, Sharma is not Jewish. Must be nice to be right about something for a change (tongue in cheek) and I was wrong in saying Jewish prominent electorates are historically Labor held seats as well as Muslim and Arab prominent seats. That was the other thing I got wrong by not editing before posting . You missed that one.

  49. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 6:38 am
    MI,
    In Australia the demographic that Dutton is attempting to appeal to is the Tradies and Tradie wives.

    ______________

    But is the concentration of these voters high enough to matter? Those suburbs have many types out there.

  50. [‘Peter Dutton’s nuclear power ambitions are reminiscent of the big government, nation building agendas of the Whitlam era, writes Greg Hallam.

    While the focus of the bombshell Dutton LNP Opposition plan to build, own and operate seven nuclear facilities across Australia is on the cost and delivery time, it misses one fact.

    This bold plan reprises the attempt way back in 1975 by Whitlam government resources and energy minister, Rex Connor, to build a national energy grid using foreign finance – the Khemlani Affair .

    The world has gone full circle in 50 years, for now it’s the turn of the opposite side of politics to propose the nationalisation of energy. Remember that it’s not just building nuclear power stations. Dutton is proposing to use the Commonwealth’s export powers to limit the sale of Australia’s LNG to overseas counter parties. Whitlam and Connor all over again.

    It’s certainly a bold political strategy to set the terms of the next federal election. Some commentators are likening it to John Hewson’s ill-fated Fightback policies of the early 90s. But I reject that comparison, as Fightback was the ultimate expression of the free market working in the nation’s interests

    Nationalising the key energy sector is the antithesis of the Hewson blueprint. Its about larger, not smaller, government.’]

    https://www.inqld.com.au/opinion/greg-hallam/2024/06/21/blast-from-the-past-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-rex-connors-redux

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