The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.
Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:
• The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.
• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.
• Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.
UK.. First PartyGate.. now it’s BetGate..
A senior Conservative official has become the fourth party figure subject to an investigation by the gambling watchdog, amid reports he placed dozens of bets on the timing of the election before it was announced.
Gove told the Sunday Times in an interview: “It looks like one rule for them and one rule for us … That’s the most potentially damaging thing. The perception that we operate outside the rules that we set for others. That was damaging at the time of Partygate and is damaging here.”
Nigel may become leader of the opposition with 2 seats.. his & one other.
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 7:57 pm
===========================
Stirring entropy, stirring. Just surprised badthinker hasn’t picked up on it seeing as he’s been active this evening. You have to accept though – the media are stirring for an early election.
Badthinker has suggested a poll date of Aug-3.
I have suggested late this year, Dec-7, or thereabouts.
Everyone else is for May-2025
‘MelbourneMammoth says:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:10 pm
Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in. It is “moderately comfortable middlebrow wannabe middle class” at best.
Ruminating and lamenting over the bigger tax cut that might have been……’
————————
Missed out on Sky as a deprived child? The world is going to hell in a hand basket.
@MelbourneMammoth at 8:10pm
Diddums. I shall play a lament for you on the world’s smallest violin.
Howdy nadia, you certainly brighten up this space. Good night.
The Prime Minister will call an early election if he thinks that his Government will benefit from doing so. For example, if later this year Labor were to have the sort of poll lead it had early last year, the Prime Minister would find a reason and call an election.
That looks unlikely. The election will be some time between March 1 and May 24.
Thanks Mavis, you do too.
Hope all’s well
This final sentence from Boerwars link to The Guardian article is one of the few things that has actually made me laugh out loud while reading Pollbludger over the years!
I mean, really, what is going on here with the LNP??
@Been There at 8:22pm
I’ll bet that the “methodical and comprehensive work” they did amounts to (in monkeybrain speak):
– WE DO WHAT GINA AND CLIVE SAY.
– WE GET MONEY.
– WE WIN POWER.
Yep, makes the current lot look like amateurs.
Kirsdake
Seriously, I’m still shaking my head.
Any thoughts Badthinker and crew?
I think that sentence from Teddy just about shot your lots argument down in flames!
William,
Have images been managed out of the comments section ?
Test
EDIT: @Rex Douglas at 8:40pm, seems so, unless there’s still ongoing issues.
Issue fixed. Anything that’s different about the site from two days ago is unintentional.
Thankyou.
@William
Thanks for fixing that up.
This is a striking image
UK Conservative Corruption… Looks like they are trying to outdo the LNP…
More than 120 Conservative MPs, including Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid and Gillian Keegan, paid £100,000 of taxpayers’ money to the Conservatives’ in-house web design services, it can be revealed.
The MPs used the Bluetree website service to design their websites. When billed by Bluetree, they would pay for the sites then claim back the costs from the public purse via expenses, prompting a complaint to parliament’s expenses watchdog about the practice.
nadia88says:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:12 pm
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 7:57 pm
===========================
Stirring entropy, stirring. Just surprised badthinker hasn’t picked up on it seeing as he’s been active this evening. You have to accept though – the media are stirring for an early election.
Badthinker has suggested a poll date of Aug-3.
I have suggested late this year, Dec-7, or thereabouts.
Everyone else is for May-2025
=================================================
I think there are a few with similar ideas as you. Certainly was back in mid May at least.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/14/budget-eve-miscellany-open-thread/comment-page-8/#comments
Ted O’Brien isn’t the issue.
The issue is Labor’s wishy-washiness on Climate Change.
Do they believe in it or not?
If yes, then ditch gas.
Hello Been There.
Mavis logs off and you log on. Sometimes we get the cream of pollbludger in one night!
Hope all’s well with you too BT, in your part of the world.
With regards to the LNP – they’re doing the same thing they did 15 years ago when Abbott took the reigns. It’s about sharpening the pencils and polarising the community. Confrontation works as a tool to drag people in. Think of your time as a child in the schoolground, and you hear those magic words “fight, fight, fight”. The kids come from all parts of the school to watch.
When I use the term polarising – what I mean is that social media is now much stronger today than traditional media, so people can be drawn into “believing what they want to believe”, with no counter balance in place. If you buy a newspaper, chances are you will get alternative viewpoints from different journo’s within the one paper, but if you subscribe to a news feed off the internet, chances are you will be shown more articles which re-enforce the viewpoint of the article your computer detects you are currently reading. Why? Because the advertisers who sponsor the site want you to remain.
LNP are telling their base and financial sponsors what they want to hear. I don’t think Dutton cares about the Teal seats anymore, that’s for sure. The rump 35% primary for the Libs in the Teal seats would now serve only to assist with the election of senators. The trick for Dutton is to start lifting the LNP primary > 40%. He’s getting close. He has cannibalised the UAP vote, but the PHON vote continues to rise of it’s own accord. Clearly his next target will be the outer suburbs and then upping the regional cities vote.
I would love to see some polls, but alas nothing at this stage.
”UK.. First PartyGate.. now it’s BetGate.”
Isn’t it petty. These guys use insider information to place a bet, probably at long odds given that Governments in trouble normally go to elections as late as reasonably possible. Even so, they stood to gain what? A few thousand pounds? At the risk of their jobs and reputation?
What else have they gained over their years in power from the use of insider information?
I don’t know whether “Insider betting” is illegal like insider trading, but it’s definitely unethical and a very poor look.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:10 pm
Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in. It is “moderately comfortable middlebrow wannabe middle class” at best.
Ruminating and lamenting over the bigger tax cut that might have been……
=====================================================
Didn’t you make some statement about having 8 figure wealth the other day?
Though far more would have missed out if you got your original full amount. With all those missing out being on a lower income than you.
@Badthinker at 8:50pm
There you go again with your bad faith bullshit. There needs to be a transition from what we have now to what we want. It can’t be solved by someone waving a wand chanting “Nucleus Maximus” (although Dutton almost looks identical to a fictional character that can do that).
Most of Australia’s coal plants have to be shut down by 2040, because that’s the simple case of industrial mortality. But we can’t achieve a full transition to an alternative power source until 2050, so there needs to be something to plug that gap. And, while I wish it wasn’t so, it seems it has to be gas to plug that gap.
Interesting that Dutton’s Nuclear plan specifically mentions 7 reactor sites, that’s the same amount of Horcruxes linked to the aforementioned fictional character.
Barnaby has been quiet.
At Tally Room [northern tablelands], someone makes the observation that Adam Marshall wants to succeed Barnaby?
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/55885
@Entropy at 8:57pm
From what I gather from MM’s story, they got estranged from their family who have an 8-figure estate, and they’re quite bitter about having to settle for a 6-figure income, so the main reason they concern troll here is because they think they’re entitled to so much more.
Sure Bad, ditch gas which gives 23% of the world power supply in favour nukes Duttons wants which contributes 10 % whilst renewables are being developed.
What a nob. LABOR IS NOT THE GREENS and they are not Liberal. LABOR prefers common sense
@Badthinker at 9:02pm
Probably passed out from too much booze.
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:49 pm
==============================
We’ll see how the year pans out.
Looks like Lars has done a “runner” this evening too after stirring the Newspoll hive.
I shall do a runner likewise. Have to wait for good old Roy Morgs tomorrow afternoon.
subgeometer @ #418 Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 – 7:23 pm
Sounds familiar to a couple of political parties here.
nadia88says:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 9:14 pm
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:49 pm
==============================
We’ll see how the year pans out.
Looks like Lars has done a “runner” this evening too after stirring the Newspoll hive.
I shall do a runner likewise. Have to wait for good old Roy Morgs tomorrow afternoon.
==================================================
I think he’s probably lurking. No point stirring up mischief if you don’t hang around and watch the aftermath.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 9:10 pm
@Badthinker at 9:02pm
Barnaby has been quiet
Probably passed out from too much booze.
==============================================
I thought it was prescription medicine mixed with booze that does that to him.
MelbourneMammoth @ #451 Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 – 8:10 pm
Greedy bastard. I’m looking potential homelessness in the face because of greedheads like you who want to deny people like me a place to live because I am on a pension and my son is between jobs. Oh, we might damage their precious investment properties, so better not give them a place to live that isn’t social housing, of which there is very little available due to Liberal and National governments selling it off to the highest bidder when the suburbs that it’s in become gentrified, and all your mealy little mouth can do is complain about how much EXTRA money you’re not getting because the federal government decided to give some of it to the Working Poor. You disgust me.
Rex Douglas
That image you posted needs to be put on a massive wall in all Capitols in the USA.
Brilliant!
Good post!
MelbourneMammoth says:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:10 pm
Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in. It is “moderately comfortable middlebrow wannabe middle class” at best………
**********
Yes. It must suck to only make a bit over twice the average male Australian income.
Trump’s America, if he wins the presidential election, really will mimic the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Now he’s proposing gladiatorial contests!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/22/trump-christians-migrants-violence/
Hey Nadia88
Cheers!
Just lurking, couldn’t help putting that one in re ridiculous Teddies claim re Universities.
Just watched a reply of Insiders.
If you want to see a farce exposed that’s the go!
Not going to debate the nutters, just enjoy seeing them destroying themselves with their feeble arguements!
It’s great entertainment, for free!
C@t at 9:47pm
He… fucking what?! Oh christ, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:10 pm
Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in. It is “moderately comfortable middlebrow wannabe middle class” at best.
It’s at least 6 times more than this bludger has. Fortunately for me I want almost nothing, for that is all I can afford.
Some here in Australian politics and on the blog support those thoughts Kirsdarke and C@t.
Be afraid Australia!
Labors after quite a few of those voters if supporting the tax cut is anything to go by…
Sceptic
“ Gove told the Sunday Times in an interview: “It looks like one rule for them and one rule for us … That’s the most potentially damaging thing. The perception that we operate outside the rules that we set for others.”
I don’t think it is the perception that they cheated on bets that is hurting them.
It is the fact that they cheated on bets that is hurting them.
MelbourneMammoth @ #451 Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 – 8:10 pm
“Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in. It is “moderately comfortable” at best.”
Why do you need to tell us what you earn?
Also that sounds a lot like the salary Bruce Lehrmann was alleged to earn. Are you a Liberal staffer?
Kirsdarke @ #488 Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 – 9:50 pm
Just pray to the doG above that he gets defeated.
Kirsdarke,
The guy is nuckin’ futs! 😯
Holy fuck, if you’re earning 190k a year and are not, at the very least, comfortably well-off, you need to learn how to budget! What the hell are you spending your money on? Do you have a coke habit?
There are millions of Australians out there who are lucky to clear 40k a year. By MelbourneMammoth’s logic, they should have all starved to death by now.
If I was on 190k a year, I think I’d be set for life.
Stooge
You are a legend, don’t ever go away!
Keep your thoughts rolling in whenever you feel the moment.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 8:10 pm
Made a bit over 190k this fiancial year, after deductions.
That is not well-off in the city that I live in.
_____________________
Moderate wealth is absolutely dreary. I’d rather be a total pauper than be moderately wealthy. Of course I’d have to go to Switzerland to determine my actual financial position.
It’s not lack of budgeting skill, it’s greed, pure and simple.
Those of you with Swiss bank accounts and, uh, “middle incomes” are reminded that donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.