Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)

An alliterative trio of seats faces redistribution-related preselection complications.

The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.

Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:

• The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.

• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.

• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.

• Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,081 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)”

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  1. Looks like MM is getting an extra 4.5 thanks to Labors stage 3 tax cuts… how deserving

    Do we get a prize William =D

  5. After allowable deductions, not after tax! If I really had 190k after tax I’d have much more wriggle room.

    It does perplex me that I feel about as poor as when I started out when I only earned about 40k a year. With no inheritance now, I have to budget for my old age! Thank God for the superannuation system, if only they had more reasonable upper limits for its tax incentives.

    I reckon in this era most middle-income people like myself are feeling poorer, and moreover, getting poorer each year with declining real wages. Labor have done nothing to help us, and this is why they are going to lose, despite Dutton being a dud.

  10. Dave: I have no need to flaunt my wealth with megayachts even if I was a billionaire; I am quite happy to wear K-Mart clothes, besides, I am not even rich by any standards. I’m merely trying to save up for a reasonable retirement. And maybe leave a little for extended family and some of my selected charities.

  12. Why does the Left have to be so hostile towards the Howard Battlers and the Aspirational Class? By doing so they will never hold the reins of power.

  13. Looking for my hankie MM.

    Hang on a minute.

    Just wiped my eyes, oh where were we?

    Tough to survive on a massive income of $190,000 after tax?

    Lucky you weren’t around during the removal of the tzars or the French revolution!

    Enjoy your wealth, don’t try foist your superiority on those you think are below you.

    Financially or intelligence wise!

  15. MM

    Your salary puts you comfortably in the top ten percent of earners in Australia.
    If you can’t be comfortable on that, learn to economise.

  16. @MM at 10:20pm

    It does perplex me that I feel about as poor as when I started out when I only earned about 40k a year.

    Well maybe you just have to make do like 98% of the rest of the country who doesn’t get as much as you do?

    Just look at where you are in your income bracket. If you’re struggling as you are, that’s honestly pathetic. Okay, so maybe you can’t afford a mansion on the best street in Toorak but you can still afford a bloody good lifestyle elsewhere.

  17. MM:

    Mate, you’re complaining about being on struggle street while earning close to three or four times the wage of a full-time worker on minimum wage. Can you see how that might rob people up the wrong way just a wee bit.

    Learn how to budget and stop whinging.

  18. Been There says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 10:05 pm

    Thank you Been There. I’m much obliged to you (and to other bludgers too). I’ve been resting my keyboard but will continue to post when I can.

    I’ve been pre-occupied with drawing and painting and with allied activities – with organising, hosting and preparing for the work. I’ve begun to earn a few pennies from my efforts and can see how I might improve. I work continually on portraits and social events. I work from life – from direct observation in order to better sense and describe my contemporaries. It’s a deeply humanising and fulfilling practice. I started 5 years ago. This changed my life beyond recognition. Much remains to be done.

  20. Also, at 190k a year, I assume you are making sure to build up a hefty investment portfolio, yes? That’s your retirement income right there.

  23. I honestly can’t be bothered with the whole “Leftie” categorisation anymore, it’s all stupid culcha war nonsense that distract us from things that matter, like cabals of the ultra-wealthy trying to quietly unravel the last 150 years of working rights and bring back Dickensian workhouses for anyone unlucky enough to be born outside of the aristocracy and positions of power.

  25. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 10:20 pm

    After allowable deductions, not after tax! If I really had 190k after tax I’d have much more wriggle room.

    It does perplex me that I feel about as poor as when I started out when I only earned about 40k a year. With no inheritance now, I have to budget for my old age! Thank God for the superannuation system, if only they had more reasonable upper limits for its tax incentives.
    ______________________________

    MM, demonstrating the lost art of the ‘Humble-Brag’

  26. Asha and Kirk your pretty self demonstrating “lefties”. More the self proclaimed progressive centrists that are complaining about housing and wages in a system they support

  28. Well, you are well and truly wrong there Lordbain!

    Read Stooges post for a starter.

    Stop assuming, you know nothing about people here.

    Keep your guessing games results to yourself!

    Anyway, that’s me, said I’d lurk earlier but couldn’t help myself.

    Bedtime now.

    Goodnight, everyone!

  29. @Lordbain at 11:01pm

    Well, if you’re going to put me on the spot like that, I’d say I’m something of a “Sustainable Progressivist”. Somewhere between the position of Whitlam and Hawke-Keating. Yes, I want things to change, but not in such an extreme way that makes it all uncomfortable for most people.

    Whitlam achieved a lot between 1972-75, but it was too much for the electorate, so he was thrown out in an electoral landslide.

    Hawke-Keating also achieved a lot between 1983-1996, but much of what they achieved was able to be corrupted by Howard over the next decade and with Rudd-Gillard so distracted by the GFC and stupid internal party wars and minority government they could do little to reverse that and then Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison came in and entrenched it, so now we have the mess we have today.

    So for the moment I’m satisfied for a party in power devoted to a meaningful slow turn instead of a rapid lunge off a cliff that would only result in a hard-right Dutton government picking up what was left off after Abbott’s attempted horror budget in 2014.

  30. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Sunday, June 23, 2024 at 10:33 pm
    Why does the Left have to be so hostile towards the Howard Battlers and the Aspirational Class? By doing so they will never hold the reins of power.

    You’re fabricating grievance for transparently ideological/polemical uses. The Left don’t nurse hostility. This is the preserve of the Reactionaries, of whom you appear to be one. As it happens, the Left hold power nearly everywhere in this country at the moment. They do so because they are safe drivers. The Reactionaries on the other hand are clearly reckless extremists, dividers and haters.

  31. Reactionaries act from their desire to defend privilege; to further exploitation; to deny the values of equality and justice. They have opposed every important advance in social history. They are getting desperate now. Time is leaving them behind.

  32. On the bright side MM you can still afford Sky News and Paul Murray blow up dolls and Peter Dutton egg timers. Life’s a bitch for people who blow their own trumpets on the Web to save their failing self respect. huh.

  33. [‘Saudi Arabia said Sunday that more than 1,300 people died on this year’s Hajj pilgrimage – with “numerous cases” due to heat stress and “unauthorized” trips accounting for more than four out of five of the fatalities.

    “The health system addressed numerous cases of heat stress this year, with some individuals still under care. Regrettably, the number of mortalities reached 1,301,” the Saudi government said in a statement as it released its first official figures.

    The statement said 83% of those who died were “unauthorized to perform Hajj” and “walked long distances under direct sunlight, without adequate shelter or comfort.” There were “several elderly and chronically ill individuals” among the deceased, it said, adding that the families of all the dead had now been identified.

    Extreme heat has been named as a main factor behind the hundreds of deaths and injuries reported this year during the Hajj. Mecca, the holy city that is central for Hajj pilgrims, saw temperatures soar to a record-setting 125 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday. Various authorities have also said the problems have been compounded by the number of unofficial pilgrimages.

    Saudi Arabia requires each pilgrim to acquire one of the 1.8 million available licenses to legally access Mecca. These licenses can cost several thousand US dollars. Unlicensed pilgrims typically don’t travel in organized tour buses with air conditioning or easy access to water and food supplies.’]

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/23/middleeast/egypt-hajj-tourism-companies-revoke-licenses-intl/index.html

  34. A bleary good morning all. This article suggests some clear demarcations for nuclear power support. Its mainly blocks not burdened with too much education.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-24/nuclear-debate-meme-wars-mask-shifting-gender-dynamics/104006204

    One myth Labor should quash is the idea of a job bonanza with nuclear power. Yes there are tradie jobs, but not for Homer Simpsons. It requires qualified engineers and technicians/tradies with relatively high skill levels. Those over 40 who don’t already have them are probably too old to start.

    More importantly, operating costs of nuclear are low because there are fewer people needed in the operating phase. The number of people needed to run and maintain a reactor is hundreds not thousands.

  36. Why doesn’t some Grand Mufti in Saudi Arabia, or the king or something, declare that Mohammed spoke to them and told them to hold the Haj in winter now!?!

  40. Investment in large scale renewables has stalled we are told.

    There is no way 43% reduction by 2030 is possible.

    With this avalanche of evidence, the only solution is to go nuclear (and keep burning coal in the meantime).

    But what is actually happening in the real world of Labor working with investors to build large scale renewables?

    The first auction for renewable projects to receive revenue guarantees under Labor’s Capacity Investment Scheme was oversubscribed seven times over, with enough bids to comfortably meet the policy’s 32 gigawatt 2030 target.

    Energy Minister Chris Bowen will on Monday reveal the first auction for 6 gigawatts of renewable energy received bids from more than 100 projects covering more than 40 gigawatts of renewable energy production.

    Mr Bowen will use the figure to push back against Coalition claims that renewable energy projects had stalled in Australia, saying the CIS results showed there was a “strong pipeline of renewables ready to go”.

    “Stopping the rollout of renewables will have one impact: it will keep coal-fired power in our grid for longer. Much longer. Of course this is bad news for emissions,” Mr Bowen wrote in The Australian Financial Review.

    Under the CIS, the government will underwrite the revenue for eligible renewable energy projects with an agreed revenue “floor” and “ceiling” to decrease the financial risks for investors and encourage more projects.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-to-keep-nuclear-power-even-if-voters-say-no-20240623-p5jnxr

  43. SPROCKET I hope Bowen gets his bitch on and rips Dutton a new one today in the HOR. Labor needs to snaffle some MSM headlines and reduce Duttons dominance of political attention apparently. Free diapers are now ready for any lefties who lose their chit if MORGAN pops up another dodgy poll

  45. Sandman,
    Chris also needs to set up the gallery with experts who have come out to speak against the Coalition’s proposal, then have a press conference with them. Hell, haul out Paul Keating for some choice quotes!

  47. Sandman,
    This impressed me from Keating’s statement released over the weekend:

    Keating, in his statement, said nuclear power is the most dangerous and expensive energy source “on the face of the earth”.

    “In advocating this, Dutton continues his party’s manic denialism, first articulated by Tony Abbott over a decade ago. Dutton, in his low-rent opportunism, mocks the decency and earnestness which recognises that carbon must be abated and with all urgency,” Keating wrote.

    “No person interested in public policy – regardless of their affiliations or beliefs, should consider, let alone endorse Dutton’s backwardness, his unreal world view that the most lethal technology of another age is a contemporary substitute for nature’s own remedy.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dripping-with-self-righteous-sanctimony-littleproud-lashes-teal-mps-in-nuclear-debate-20240623-p5jnyp.html

  49. “Why doesn’t some Grand Mufti in Saudi Arabia, or the king or something, declare that Mohammed spoke to them and told them to hold the Haj in winter now!?!”

    The date is tied to the lunar calendar; it won’t be in summer if you wait several years.

    There used to be system of inserting a month into the lunar calendar to keep the Hajj etc. in the right season, but it was prohibited under Islam.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasi%27

  50. I don’t know where the Coalition get their $1.3 trillion cost for Renewables from?

    Using data from the CSIRO’s latest GenCost report and the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan, the Smart Energy Council estimates the plan’s cost to taxpayers will be at least $116 billion.

    This is equivalent to delivering 82 per cent renewables by 2030, and an almost 100 per cent renewable energy mix by 2050, including the cost of building all of the enabling transmission infrastructure, the council said.

    Under the operator’s forecast, the total expenditure required to fund all generation, storage, firming and transmission infrastructure was found to have a 2024-dollar value of $121 billion, to be invested gradually out to 2050.

    The bulk of the $121 billion would be invested by the private sector between now and 2050 to deliver about 300 gigawatts of capacity by 2050.

    These figures compare to just 11 gigawatts of nuclear capacity funded by the taxpayer in the opposition’s proposal, the council said.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/climate-denialist-paul-keating-launches-scathing-attack-on-peter-duttons-nuclear-power-plan/

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