Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)

An alliterative trio of seats faces redistribution-related preselection complications.

The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.

Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:

The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.

Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.

Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,081 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  1. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 10:41 am
    Matt Kean apppointed… oh man, this will do wonders about how LibLab are totally different
    ____________
    Hilarious! Even Griff will be laughing at this one.

  2. from the Guardian Blog

    Former NSW treasurer Matt Kean to chair Climate Change Authority

    Albanese:

    As a former New South Wales Treasurer and minister for energy and the environment, Matt Kean is uniquely qualified to lead the Climate Change Authority and I am so pleased that he has accepted the government’s invitation to take up the vacancy.

  3. That appointment seems odd. Why? His links to energy companies from when he was NSW minister? It’s a bit smelly in terms of fueling conspiracy theories.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 7:29 am
    I don’t know where the Coalition get their $1.3 trillion cost for Renewables from?

    That’s a rhetorical question I know but the obvious answer is the deep dark pit below Liberal Party headquarters.

    The ACT Liberals are delving into their own deep dark pit prior to the ACT Assembly election in October. They have declared that they will stop all work on extensions to Canberra’s existing light rail network. They keep claiming the latest extension in the planning phase will cost astronomical amounts and the figure keeps increasing, exactly $3 billion earlier this year, then $4 billion. Doubtless it will be $5 billion by the time of the election.

  5. Griff,

    I wasn’t being flippant either, one of my biggest gripes with the modern Labor party is how ‘small government’ they really are. Take any problem, and their solution will be some sort of market or private sector led response.

    I think one of the many reasons people have lost so much faith in government is all of the outsourcing and privatisation that has occurred since the 80s (started by Hawke & Keating, turbocharged by the coalition)

    so on climate change, if the government was serious it wouldn’t just be incentivising private investment, it would be directly funding it or at least handing $$$ to the states to directly fund expansion, particularly in things like transmission and storage that are less ‘commercially’ viable

    on housing it would be, you know, building houses instead of the horribly convoluted and laughably insufficient HAFF policy

    With healthcare, the urgent care clinics were an ok idea (we’ve used one once and it was a good experience) but of course the government outsourced the entire thing (to healthscope IIRC) rather than building and operating them itself

    the NBN (originally intended to be privatised), the NDIS, the ‘nature repair’ market, and on and on and on, the federal ALP never does anything itself! Gotta make fat profits for the private sector

    Credit where it’s due though on trying to reduce the reliance on the big 4 consultants and hiring more public servants

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 10:47 am
    Lordbainsays:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 10:41 am
    Matt Kean apppointed… oh man, this will do wonders about how LibLab are totally different
    ____________
    Hilarious! Even Griff will be laughing at this one.

    ___________

    I did indeed crack a smile 🙂

  7. They could certainly have appointed someone worse than Matt Kean, but surely he isn’t the best candidate? What about a eminent scientist or engineer to chair the Authority?

  8. I mean Kean is certainly an expect on climate change… with his… wait a minute, he has a Bachelor of Business from the University of Technology, Sydney and graduate diploma at the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

    This is the best man for the job?

    Jesus

  9. Douglas and Milko @ #651 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 10:48 am

    from the Guardian Blog

    Former NSW treasurer Matt Kean to chair Climate Change Authority

    Albanese:

    As a former New South Wales Treasurer and minister for energy and the environment, Matt Kean is uniquely qualified to lead the Climate Change Authority and I am so pleased that he has accepted the government’s invitation to take up the vacancy.

    Watch RWNJs heads explode! 😆

  10. Let’s be real here.

    Albo appointing Kean is a political decision.

    Albo thinks it’s clever politics putting up Lib vs Lib.

    This is your stock standard NSW standard politics BS.

  11. The cookers are getting all bitter and twisted about the ridicule the nuclear follies are attracting, Here’s a little grammar lesson. Ridicule comes from the Latin ridere which means to laugh. The word ridiculous has the same source.

    However, I think we are taking this a little too seriously in expecting detail. They have no intention of building nuclear power stations. It’s a ploy to extend the fossil fuel gravy train, nothing more. If there was a power technology with a greater implementation time than nuclear we would be ridiculing that instead.

  12. Lordbain @ #661 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 11:01 am

    I mean Kean is certainly an expect on climate change… with his… wait a minute, he has a Bachelor of Business from the University of Technology, Sydney and graduate diploma at the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

    This is the best man for the job?

    Jesus

    You were lauding Paul Keating’s ability to speak on any subject at all earlier this morning. Especially solutions and costings wrt Climate Change. And his qualifications are? 😐

  13. The fact that some of the usual suspects here are attacking the Kean appointment leads me to thinking it’s probably a good idea.

  14. Rex Douglas @ #663 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 11:03 am

    Let’s be real here.

    Albo appointing Kean is a political decision.

    Albo thinks it’s clever politics putting up Lib vs Lib.

    This is your stock standard NSW standard politics BS.

    The guy fought the good fight against the climate dinosaurs in the Liberal Party, and especially against Scott Morrison when he was in power in the federal government. He pushed through some of the most advanced policies to deal with Climate Change of any Coalition government. I know you are one-eyed, Rex Douglas, but open the other one for a moment and acknowledge what the guy achieved. Just once.

  15. Is Kean anti Nuclear or just anti Dutton Nuclear?
    Labor giving itself cover to switch sides on Nuclear before the Greens wake up, imo.

  16. PageBoi says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 10:54 am
    Griff,

    I wasn’t being flippant either, one of my biggest gripes with the modern Labor party is how ‘small government’ they really are. Take any problem, and their solution will be some sort of market or private sector led response.

    I think one of the many reasons people have lost so much faith in government is all of the outsourcing and privatisation that has occurred since the 80s (started by Hawke & Keating, turbocharged by the coalition)

    so on climate change, if the government was serious it wouldn’t just be incentivising private investment, it would be directly funding it or at least handing $$$ to the states to directly fund expansion, particularly in things like transmission and storage that are less ‘commercially’ viable

    on housing it would be, you know, building houses instead of the horribly convoluted and laughably insufficient HAFF policy

    With healthcare, the urgent care clinics were an ok idea (we’ve used one once and it was a good experience) but of course the government outsourced the entire thing (to healthscope IIRC) rather than building and operating them itself

    the NBN (originally intended to be privatised), the NDIS, the ‘nature repair’ market, and on and on and on, the federal ALP never does anything itself! Gotta make fat profits for the private sector

    Credit where it’s due though on trying to reduce the reliance on the big 4 consultants and hiring more public servants.

    ______

    I am a believer in market monopolies and public services provided by governments. Big government if you will. With respect to housing, I would like direct social housing ownership. I am less concerned by who constructs the housing. But happy to listen to arguments either way.

  17. It is attempt to stick thumb in the eye of LNP…. look we have a member of your mob who doesn’t believe your climate denier stick…. Is it the best way to do it? Probably not.
    It might help with the business community, probably less so with voters.

  18. The Oz, P4:

    And as Coalition figures have attested, had it not been for Covid, Scott Morrison might have been moved on as well.

    Simon Benson
    [preparing the ground to bury Albo?]

  19. My thoughts on Kean is sound tactics but the wisdom of the strategy of being bipartisan is open to debate. Will it hasten the disintegration of Howard’s “broad church” or will it provide greater resistance to progressive government in Australia? All I know is I am more comfortable with Kean as a known quantity than I am with not sweeping the top-level of the public service. Thankfully a few have now departed.

  20. Badthinker @ #676 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 11:13 am

    The Oz, P4:

    And as Coalition figures have attested, had it not been for Covid, Scott Morrison might have been moved on as well.

    Simon Benson
    [preparing the ground to bury Albo?]

    Revisionist history: refers to the practice of distorting or manipulating historical facts to suit a particular agenda or viewpoint, often to the detriment of accuracy and objectivity. This approach can involve selectively presenting evidence, ignoring countervailing information, or misrepresenting events to create a biased or misleading narrative. Critics argue that such revisionism undermines the integrity of historical scholarship and can perpetuate falsehoods or propaganda, ultimately misinforming the public and skewing collective memory and understanding of the past.

  21. All that is needed now is for a few corporates to take a strong stand to show community support- maybe Qantas can be persuaded to have 3 eyed fish painted on the planes next to the Kangaroo symbol?

    Voters would love to see that.

  22. I have seen little criticism of Matt Kean on PB.

    I think we was generally acknowledged as getting action on climate change when he was part of the NSW Government, against the wishes of many of his colleagues.

    Perhaps his appointment will stop some conservative voters assuming that The Climate Change Authority is just a lefty body?

    I guess we will see how it pans out.

  23. Josh Butler

    In things you didn't expect today, the Labor federal government has appointed former Liberal MP Matt Kean as chair of the Climate Change Authority Kean quit NSW parliament only days ago pic.twitter.com/Wn8KoPknHQ— Josh Butler (@JoshButler) June 24, 2024

    And reply by Pup Fiction
    “Full expecting The Australian will launch 17 articles against Kean in the next 48 hours”

  24. Seriously, how do some of you guys never learn; Kean was all talk during his time in power, he has no specific background on climate science, and this is clearly an attempt by Albo to try and appeal to the same people who like Kean.

    Forgive me if I would like qualified experts in charge…

    Chris Bowen says he recommended Matt Kean to cabinet to chair the Climate Change Authority because “I knew he was best for the job”, so a captain’s pick, if you will.

  25. I suppose one question is: Was Kean offered the job after he resigned as a NSW MP or was he first offered/accepted the job and then resigned?

  26. lol – the Chair of the CCA is not the person in charge. It’s a political appointment – usually for show.

    The CEO runs the show, hires the staff, commissions and is responsible for the work.

    Is it a little more craven than I’d like sure? But you’re better off finding a bigger hill on which to strangle yourself with your pearls.

  27. Labor heavily supported the UN appointment of Natasha Stott Despoja. It appointed Kean to the Climate Change Authority. It appointed Savva to the Old Parliament House position.

    All individuals of merit and of achievement.

    The Coalition appointed a slew of Liberal hacks, sleeve tuggers and hasbeens to the AAT.

    Morrison appointed himself to five ministries.

    Spot the difference.

  28. Oz headline just now:

    Former Lib MP Kean to chair Climate Change Authority
    The former NSW energy minister has signalled he won’t look at nuclear as part of the country’s energy mix as the PM declares him an ‘outstanding appointment’.

    Certainly looks like he will be copping a lot of RW attacks.
    Also could be a nice little “up yours” from Albo to Dutton.

  29. Citizen at 11.24am, a very safe bet would be the latter reason.

    And this means there would have been an approach one way or the other, and then significant negotiation, all without the Libs finding out. It probably says a lot about loyalty within the Libs and even more about dissatisfaction with the take over by religious loons and right wing cookers.

    This would be very encouraging to the Teals intention to target 9 more liberal seats.

  30. I agree Boer re Kean, this is the best Labor appointment since Sir John Kerr for G-G in 1974. Youse’ll be sorry.

  31. I am a little confused; was Kean picked because he is the best man for the job (per albo and Bowen), or is it simply a political post where is he expected to do nothing 🙂

    I thought it was bad for outgoing Liberals to be posted to cushy roles… but I guess when Labor does it, its ok

  32. Former governor-general David Hurley is having his portrait unveiled in parliament house.
    ____________
    Will Mrs Hurley lead a sing song?

  33. jt1983 @ #681 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 11:28 am

    lol – the Chair of the CCA is not the person in charge. It’s a political appointment – usually for show.

    The CEO runs the show, hires the staff, commissions and is responsible for the work.

    Is it a little more craven than I’d like sure? But you’re better off finding a bigger hill to strangle yourself with your pearls on.

    I like it. 😆

  34. Did they even talk to the NSW Labor Govt before announcing this master stroke ? I doubt they would be so keen.

  35. Jesus! Talk about projection.

    Speaking after the announcement of Kean’s appointment, Ruston told Sky News the appointment was a distraction.

    “Obviously I wish Mr Kean all the best with his new role, but I mean, I think what we have to do is, you know, call the government out for another distraction away from the fact that you know, their energy policy is in shambles,” she said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-grocery-stores-face-billion-dollar-fines-under-stronger-laws-police-hunt-for-armed-teenagers-who-triggered-westfield-lockdown-20240624-p5jo32.html?post=p576hh#p576hh

  36. If you actually want to understand Matt Kean’s thinking, and his legislative achievements (hint: it’s not nothing), then you can read this piece in that noted Lefty media outlet, The Saturday Paper(hopefully it will silence the snarking from The Greens’ fan club, on second thoughts, of course it won’t):

    “You know,” he tells The Saturday Paper, “this is a contested space in Australian politics. It has brought down three prime ministers, it’s torn down governments.”

    Kean had good reason to fear the people who had torn down those leaders and governments – fellow Liberals and Nationals, the vested interests in the fossil fuel sector and reactionary media. They have come after him, and are still coming.

    Nonetheless, he took the role determined to “fly the flag for the brand of liberalism that I believed in and that I felt that my community supported”. He says, “That’s exactly what I’ve been trying to do.”

    At the end of last month, Kean saw through the state parliament legislation to support a plan to build 12 gigawatts of large-scale renewable energy generation – about as much as currently exists in all of the country – along with two gigawatts of storage, largely pumped hydro, over the next decade. It is anticipated it will attract $32 billion in private investment, create 6300 construction jobs and 2800 operational jobs, mostly in regional areas, and cut power bills by an average $130 per household and $440 per small business, per year.

    It took a while to get through the parliament: more than 30 continuous hours of debate in the state’s upper house, largely due to the spoiling tactics of One Nation’s Mark Latham, who put up 249 amendments. But while Latham’s nitpicking made the process protracted, it made no dent in the multipartisan backing Kean had brought together in support of his package. The Greens voted for it. So did the Christian Democrats’ Fred Nile, the left-leaning minor parties and independents, and Labor.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/10849/VSc092om

    So you can read the whole thing for free.

  37. Serious question – would there be anything stopping the government from entering and trying to take over the retail electricity market? all the Electricity retailers really do is operate as a hedge between consumers and the volatile spot market, they don’t really add any value other than that, and huge sums are wasted on marketing etc for a bunch of companies all offering essentially the same ‘product’, not to mention the waste of consumers time as they ‘shop around’ for the best deals

    My thought is they could direct Red Energy (which is government owned via snowy hydro) to offer electricity at cost across the NEM (cost being a reasonable hedge on price volatility plus their own running costs), which should allow them to undercut the for profit retailers and hopefully make their retail businesses unprofitable. This approach would avoid directly nationalising the retail electricity market whilst achieving the same goal

    I think there’s a reasonable case for a market existing for generation, but absolutely not transmission and distribution or retail

  38. Just want to chuck my 2 cents worth into the nuclear ‘debate’.

    First, this is clearly a dead cat being used to create uncertainty in renewable energy investments. There is zero chance of it being implemented.

    Second, the proposal deserves all the ridicule it is getting as it isn’t a serious proposal – see dead cat comment above.

    But now to the meat of my general anti-nuclear stance.

    Two points – Normal Accident Theory and Neoliberalism.

    Normal Accident Theory posits that any system that is complex, like say, a plane or a nuclear power plant, and tightly coupled, as in if any one thing goes wrong, it can lead to disaster (and having watched enough air crash investigations episodes to be a self declared expert, from little things big things grow!!) Any system that is complex and tightly coupled WILL fail.

    So basically, a nuclear power plant will eventually have a disaster!! We have been relatively lucky so far that the Nuclear disasters we have had have not been as catastrophic as they could have been, but they have still been very bad.

    Now you may say that modern nuclear plants are much safer and better managed, so I must discuss neoliberalism.

    Imagine, if you will, a nuclear plant approaching the end of its 50 years life. It may have been built by the Government, but rest assured it has been privatised by now. And the Govt regulator has been well and truly captured by the nuclear energy business. So the private owners are trying to eke out the last profits before they unexpectedly go bankrupt right at the end and leave the Commonwealth with the clean up bill. So of course the private owners cut back on maintenance and staffing, including expertise and training of said staff. What could possibly go wrong? It’s a Normal Accident waiting to happen.

    It’s just not worth the risk, regardless of cost, let alone the cost of waste disposal. We live in a society that has allowed asbestos to be scattered in our parks, imagine the same thing happening to nuclear waste!! Living in our neoliberal hellscape, I find this highly likely.

    Rant done, SolarPunk Out!
    (Drops mike)

  39. Pyne sadly couldn’t make Friday’s event, but ensured his jovial presence was felt by buying everyone drinks from afar. It was an otherwise fairly standard crowd of mods – former attorney-general George Brandis, ex-South Australian premier Steven Marshall, Victorian opposition leader John Pesutto, NSW MP James Griffin and rebellious backbencher Bridget Archer, who we’re shocked to see at a Liberal event.

    Most of the top dogs kicked on to El Loco after the big event at the Hyatt, with shadow ministers Jane Hume and Linda Reynolds arriving to cheers from the room. Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s speech on nuclear energy drew a more lacklustre response.

    https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/john-howard-and-a-patriotic-dessert-menu-the-liberal-party-turns-80-20240623-p5jo0u.html

    Bet Sussan Ley’s speech on nuclear energy was a real corker. 😆

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