The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.
Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:
• The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.
• Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.
• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.
• Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.
Dutton and his cronies will unlikely be coherent in question time today or rest of this week
Dutton and the Liberals have set themselves up for a complete and utter pizzling in QT this week. There is nothing worse for a politician than being laughed at.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/the-falling-birthrate-threatens-a-disaster-so-costly-no-politician-dares-think-about-it
Interesting article.
But talking about not daring to think about things, if it’s costly, why not tax the rich???
Anyway, birth rates are what they are because women now have choices. And that is a good thing!!
If society would like women to choose to have babies, then maybe we should ask women what they want? Even at the risk of being told they just don’t want to have babies and I should stfu!
As a cisgender white dude, I have my thoughts, but no mansplaining from me here
I don’t know about the validity or reliability of the psephing behind this discussion. FWIW:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/24/climate-change-survey-human-caused-poll-australia
Badstinker
Did LNP have a rebuttal of the Voice, or just memes and stunts?
SP, i believe the relevant quote is “It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism” with regards to modern societies ability to look outside the box…
Genuine conservatives wouldn’t have a bar of Dutton’s radically extreme agenda.
‘SolarPunk says:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 1:45 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/the-falling-birthrate-threatens-a-disaster-so-costly-no-politician-dares-think-about-it
Interesting article.
But talking about not daring to think about things, if it’s costly, why not tax the rich???
Anyway, birth rates are what they are because women now have choices. And that is a good thing!!
If society would like women to choose to have babies, then maybe we should ask women what they want? Even at the risk of being told they just don’t want to have babies and I should stfu!
As a cisgender white dude, I have my thoughts, but no mansplaining from me here’
———————————-
It is a universal phenomenon, regardless of culture, that women stop having enough babies to replace their populations when (a) they have reproductive control over their bodies and (b) when they have the economic means to support themselves. Government attempts to alter this have rarely had anything more than a small impact at the margins.
It is of more than passing interest that the CCP is going full throttle to try to halt and reverse the falling birth rate in China. Having one of the more draconian and totalitarian government capacities in the world, it is going to be interesting to see whether they are going to be able to force women to have more babies.
No current or historical economic system can cope with this for the simple reason that eventually we will run out of humans to be a part of any economic system.
Looks two Murdoch hacks haven’t synchronised their ramblings – “lack of qualifications” vs “over qualified”.
Oz headline:
Green Kean’s appointment is frankly astounding
Matt Kean’s appointment as Climate Change Authority chair without any due diligence diminishes the role — to say nothing of his lack of qualifications.
DT headline:
Why Albo’s outspoken pick is a huge error
OPINION: There is no doubt former NSW Treasurer Matt Kean is qualified – or even over-qualified – for his new role, but that is precisely the problem.
Condolence motion for Gary Nairn – one of the better members of the House.
Also chuckling at the people who think question time matters to anyone outside of a very small bubble…
Boer,
As usual you completely miss the point, and ignore the questions asked. Please explain to me how it is efficient, or even rational, to have multiple companies all with their own bloated management structures, marketing departments and whatnot all vying to sell me exactly the same electricity, in a completely arbitrary and confected ‘market’?
It isn’t……
Electricity retailers provide absolutely zero benefit to anyone other than their shareholders, and the whole market is just a time and money sink on the populace. I’d personally just ban it and nationalise the lot of them, and the transmission networks whilst I was at it, but there’s no way the modern ALP would have the guts for that so effectively undercutting the market with a government low cost retailer is probably the next best we could hope for. Even that I realise would be a stretch though, because the ALP would be admitting that markets aren’t ALWAYS the best solution to a given problem, and they might be forced to rethink some of their other sacred cows like the NBN, the NDIS (not opposed to helping people with disabilities, far from it, but the current structure is nuts), or even dumber markets like ACCUs or the nature repair market
And for the record, I do shop around for the best deal, probably about every 12 months, and am still with Red Energy as their plans have consistently matched our needs. However I completely resent the fact that this is ‘work’ I’m essentially forced to do because ‘private markets are always the most efficient way of doing things’
‘PageBoi says:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 2:07 pm
Boer,
As usual you completely miss the point…’
———————
Yeah. Nah. I get cheap energy. THAT is the point.
The notion that governments always operate monopolies more efficiently and cheaply than private sector corporations do is interesting.
How would you like a nine year wait for a knee operation in England?
Boerwar @ #756 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 1:58 pm
I give this issue thought all the time. Our current systems have some existing solutions, some solutions are utopian, some dystopian.
Productivity needs to go up in some fashion (AI, Robots, 60hr work week). Workforce participation might have to go up (lower and raise the age people enter and leave the workforce). Invest in your human capital (educate, reeducate your population). Improve your healthcare (see people leaving the workforce later). Incentive breeding (did I mention dystopian solutions, or real test-tube babies). Replace throw away consumer model (or speed it up same outcome).
Edit for amusing typo
BW continues to repeat literally right wing talking points (in this case about a labour implimentation weakened by the very things bw supports).
Mate, I really do think that, based on your policies… your voting for the wrong party
pB
The price pressure from the retailers flows straight through to the generators.
The generators want to produce it as cheaply and competitively as possible in order to make a buck.
Even Dutton knows you are wrong. That is why he is proposing to follow your nostrum: nationalizing nuclear power.
MI
The inverted population pyramids are going to put huge strains on all economies.
and onto deflection, because the NHS (which has been run into the ground by the tories for the last 14 years so of course it’s on its last legs) is completely analagous to the Australian domestic retail energy market – it’s an obvious and totally valid comparison! Definitely not a desparate and not even particularly good attempt at deflection
no attempt at all to defend the current system as rational or efficient I see, none. I suppose to a right winger like yourself the efficient markets hypothesis is just so far beyond question you take it as self evident
I smell a listicle coming in, cut ‘n paste is all you’ve got…..
The laughter has started. The mocking has started.
Boerwar @ #767 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 2:17 pm
Yep.
My point is that there are some mitigating policies which can be put in place. Ironically house prices would come down, Japan is seeing that.
PageBoi
Look at it this way. You are getting the best of both worlds – shopping around for cheap power AND the freedom to whinge about it.
Spud looking like he is chewing on a lemon. DOES NOT LIKE BEING LAUGHED AT.
Angus Taylor is even laughing at Dutton
I note the Victorian Govt announcing high rise residential accommodation integrating with new SRL and Melbourne Metro rail projects. Sensible.
With a booming population we need to go ‘up’, not ‘out’.
More deflection from BW… God forbid the market can’t solve all our problems, and that the idea that the private sector is more efficient with tax payers then the government is not based on anything other then right wing propaganda
screaming from the public gallery in the house of reps
Ted O’Brien is starting to bellow when Prime Minister called out O’Brien correctly , the lib/nats asked 2 questions not 3 questions ,
Rex at 1.35pm.
“I assume that Kean has done the proper thing and resigned from the NSW Liberal party?”
He is not working for the ALP, he is becoming a public servant. In this country being a public servant doesn’t affect what you do in your own time. If he wants to be a member of the Liberal Party that’s no ones business but his and the Libs.
Hope Albanese repeats over and over again the cost of living as Labors no 1 priority mantra all the way to the election as he did in the HOR today. That 1 clear message I think will be critical to retaining government albeit with a few missing faces at worst.
Dutton could well be gone by Christmas with this nuclear policy of his.
Imagine if Newspoll comes out 53-47 or better for Labor, it will be Christmas in July for PB.
Matt Kean is a terrible appointment.
He is a pure wet liberal spiv who debauched the energy policy of the state Labor opposition and turned it into a marketing brochure without any real action undertaken. He is personally responsible for the need to continue to operate Eraring power station for several more years. THEN – failing upwards (don’t they all) – he debauched the state’s finances with, you guessed it, more spin and bullshit.
This is s very poorly thought out decision by the Albanese government. It will not move any political sentiment toward’s Labor’s energy policy, because the cookers hate Kean as much as they hate Albo. If anything, it just ads more flames and confusion to the debate – which is exactly Dutton’s intent.
BW
I have put my money where my mouth is, so to speak, and written to Chris Bowen to suggest my government low cost / not for profit electricity retailer idea. Lets see if I get anything other than boilerplate as a response
I’m genuinely hoping he’d consider the idea, but also doubt it
Kids these days, huh?
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/49840-53-of-18-to-24-year-olds-want-more-socialism
This is from the last YouGov poll of a bit over two weeks ago. A whole new one should be out on Friday.
Whingers in the West newspaper today still bemoaning Labor making a “mockery” of Dutton’s “nuclear debate”……
All political parties do hypocrisy but the conservatives are past-masters at the art.
This mob is upset that something they believe in as a kind of indisputable way to go (in their eyes) should not be lampooned by those who do not agree.
Many recognise a Mickey Mouse policy when we see one and are happy to use the same antics as the conservatives to help debunk said policy.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 2:49 pm
Imagine if Newspoll comes out 53-47 or better for Labor, it will be Christmas in July for PB.
Dutton’s discomfort is entertaining but I doubt it will move the poll numbers.
Thanks William!
I wonder if there may be the hint of a reason for Labors decreasing youth vote in those numbers…
Dutton is getting humiliated ,he doesnt have a clue on his nuclear thought bubble
Are submarine reactors sealed for the life of the submarine?
Just wondering if Marles statement was correct.
Must confess I know nothing of Matt Kean….However, Labor is as good as any political party of reusing political has-beens or never-wases in sinecures or similar. Some are of good quality and others not. Think the cherry goes to the Libs in foisting Joy Hockey on the Americans thereby giving a dud a soft number for a few years
I gather Hockey enjoyed sucking up to Donald Trump. Says it all I guess…….
Boerwar
“It is a universal phenomenon, regardless of culture, that women stop having enough babies to replace their populations when (a) they have reproductive control over their bodies and (b) when they have the economic means to support themselves.”
—————
If it is “a universal phenomenon” then it follows that every society where women have reproductive autonomy will be replaced by societies where women do NOT have reproductive autonomy.
Does that give substance to the population replacement theory of the right wing?
Tricot says:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:06 pm
Must confess I know nothing of Matt Kean….However, Labor is as good as any political party of reusing political has-beens or never-wases in sinecures or similar. Some are of good quality and others not. Think the cherry goes to the Libs in foisting Joy Hockey on the Americans thereby giving a dud a soft number for a few years
I gather Hockey enjoyed sucking up to Donald Trump. Says it all I guess…….
————————–
Appointments which are made by Governments aren’t really in the mind of majority voters when it comes to vote at the election
@Lordbain: “sprocket, do you or do you not agree that Labors actions are going against the advice of the scientific community”
We’ve had this argument around here before.
The scientific consensus gives us facts. We as an entire world need to keep emissions to X to keep temperature rises to Y to limit the negative effects to Z.
No scientist can tell you how to actually get the world to do that but it’s definitely not one single path involving one single country. It will almost certainly involve temperature rises above what it should and negative effects above what it should because the world has wasted a lot of time.
One of the reasons for that waste is in my view inflexible people who insist on all or nothing approaches and would rather spend 10 years doing nothing than accept less than 100% of what they see as the correct approach and damn everyone else. It’s how we got shit like Bob Brown’s convoy and hundreds of thousands of voters feeling that they will lose out and that climate activists are comfortable middle class people who won’t lift a finger to compensate mining regions et al for their job losses and shattered communities, working class people having trouble putting food on the table right now for whom putting money into climate change is a down the road problem while hunger and a roof is a now problem. And these people have votes, and many voted for Tony Abbott and for Scott Morrison because of this, which prevents any climate action at all.
So unless you think the advice of the scientific community is to fail to get the world’s population on side, lose elections and do nothing at all, no I don’t think Labor is ignoring the scientific community at all. I think Labor is seeking to get as much done as it practically can without losing the support of the Australian people, a task made more difficult by the Greens who should want to make it easier.
Unless you’re a Stalinist dictator, you can’t just force policies you want and fuck the disruption to your people.
And in this case, even being a Stalinist dictator would at most let you reduce Australian emissions, nobody else’s, which is rather crucial.
I’ve long said the absolute best thing Australia can do is serve as a model to other countries to follow for reducing emissions without massive economic pain and dislocations. If we can do it, it’s an example for politicians elsewhere to point to to bring their people on side.
And the worst thing that could happen would be to impose unpopular climate measures which see the government get turfed out and all emissions reduction measures cancelled by a Dutton government.
Thanks for confirming it isn’t Arky 🙂 and thanks for putting the 2019 loss entirely on the greens. Man, as a greens supporter I’m so jealous my party isn’t like the Labor party… perfect in every way.
I mean, here was me thinking we wasted decades doing nothing on climate change due to interference from the fossil fuel industry, a lack of will from centrist parties to piss of the donors, and culture wars started by the right wing… but it was actually the left wing (as usual).
Ted’s been nuked by the speaker.
‘Rikali says:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:09 pm
Boerwar
“It is a universal phenomenon, regardless of culture, that women stop having enough babies to replace their populations when (a) they have reproductive control over their bodies and (b) when they have the economic means to support themselves.”
—————
If it is “a universal phenomenon” then it follows that every society where women have reproductive autonomy will be replaced by societies where women do NOT have reproductive autonomy.
Does that give substance to the population replacement theory of the right wing?’
——————————–
If a population decides not to replace itself it should not really matter to that population what replaces it.
I assume that some Greens are doing Look at Moi in the bleachers.
Pageboi
Which of the Teals are advocating nationalization of anything at all?
I hadn’t realized they were into nationalization.
If you want nationalization of energy production you would be supporting Dutton.
Rikali
Catholics?
That QT was an absolute slaughter house.