Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)

An alliterative trio of seats faces redistribution-related preselection complications.

The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.

Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:

The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.

Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.

Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,081 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar

    If a population decides not to replace itself it should not really matter to that population what replaces it.
    ————-
    You are changing your premise. You did not mention anything about a population “deciding” not to replace itself.

    Or are you now saying that “allowing” women reproductive autonomy is tantamount to a desire for cultural “extinction”?

  2. Greens leader gets one question in the HOR and what is it about. Nukes? No. The environment? No….it’s supermarket regulations. He has gone MIA on nukes and nothing to say about the pro Palestine protestors up in the gallery yelling and whining. What a waste of space he is.

  3. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:22 pm

    Rikali

    If it is “a universal phenomenon” then it follows that every society where women have reproductive autonomy will be replaced by societies where women do NOT have reproductive autonomy.

    Catholics?’
    ———————–
    Around 98% of catholic women use birth control other than ‘natural family planning’.
    The trend in Islamic countries is in the same general direction but from a higher recent level and is already lower than replacement rates in some countries.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate

  4. Dutton making a fool of himself in QT:
    “I refer to the deputy prime minister’s earlier answer and confirmation that waste from the nuclear propulsion system will be stored on the submarine in the reactor for many years. Can the deputy prime minister confirm that it is safe for the sailors, for the submariners to be in that environment?”

    As I have said before, this is garbage from Dutton. Nuclear subs are extremely safe. Dutton said so himself when he was Defence minister trying to sell AUKUS.

    There has not been a single instance, in 60 years of operation, that any US, UK or French SSN that has caused harm to its crew or externally through a reactor containment failure. Over 200 SSNs put to sea under these navies in that time. Studies have shown that sub crews have rates of cancer lower than the general population.

    Japan monitors them closely when visiting their ports.
    https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/fact0604.pdf

  5. Yes Sandman, because the average Aussie doesn’t care or feel like they are being fleeced by the supermarkets. Obviously that’s a stupid thing to want to discuss; let’s keep focusing on what the average Aussie really cares about… matt keans appointment. Jesus christ the brains trust in this place never fails to amuse me

  6. Yes Sandman, because the average Aussie doesn’t care or feel like they are being fleeced by the supermarkets. Obviously that’s a stupid thing to want to discuss; let’s keep focusing on what the average Aussie really cares about… matt keans appointment. Jesus christ the brains trust in this place never fails to amuse me

  7. ‘Rikali says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:28 pm

    Boerwar

    If a population decides not to replace itself it should not really matter to that population what replaces it.
    ————-
    You are changing your premise. You did not mention anything about a population “deciding” not to replace itself.

    Or are you now saying that “allowing” women reproductive autonomy is tantamount to a desire for cultural “extinction”?’
    ——————
    Not at all. I’m trying not to be judgemental here. I am trying to report some observations.

    I’m saying that when women can decide whether or not they will replace themselves they do not maintain a population. This has some determinant consequences for populations as a whole. There is other population stuff that flows from the sum of those individual decisions like night follows day. If there are no people belonging to a culture then there is no culture. In the interim, some populations, such as the Australian human population, may decide to grow their numbers from outside sources. It is unlikely that this option will maintain itself indefinitely.

  8. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:35 pm

    Dutton making a fool of himself in QT…’
    ————————
    He has tied an albatross around his neck.

  9. ‘Sandman says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm

    Greens leader gets one question in the HOR and what is it about. Nukes? No. The environment? No….it’s supermarket regulations. He has gone MIA on nukes and nothing to say about the pro Palestine protestors up in the gallery yelling and whining. What a waste of space he is.’
    ———————–
    So is Bandt fixated on the price of pork chops?

  10. Sandman @ #796 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 3:32 pm

    Greens leader gets one question in the HOR and what is it about. Nukes? No. The environment? No….it’s supermarket regulations. He has gone MIA on nukes and nothing to say about the pro Palestine protestors up in the gallery yelling and whining. What a waste of space he is.

    To be fair to Bandt he can’t be responsible to for the fracas in the gallery. But disappointing the Greens aren’t making more of the whole nuclear thought bubble from the coalition.

  11. Aqualung

    “Are submarine reactors sealed for the life of the submarine?
    Just wondering if Marles statement was correct.”
    ———————————————–
    Marles needs to be careful here, and obviously knows no more about nuclear technology than his non-engineer advisors.

    Current model US SSN reactors are sealed for life. No uranium waste is removed from them till the end of the 30 years, unless they are refueled, which is not needed but is possible.

    However the nuclear reactor is in a reactor compartment with tightly controlled access. That compartment is not sealed. During maintenance, any components in that reactor compartment that have become irradiated and are not functional re removed and become waste. This happens roughly every ten years.

    Hence whilst the reactor is sealed no waste uranium is removed. But when maintenance occurs, other radioactive waste may be removed from near the reactor. The reactor is sealed, but the reactor room is not.

  12. OC

    “You seem to have forgotten the glorious USSR
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_K-19
    The submarine nicknamed Hiroshima”
    ——————————————–
    No I did not forget. I referred to US, UK and French SSNs, which were all designed and built to very high standards. The USSR was a completely different story, and they lost at least four nuclear subs during the cold war. At least two were due to reactor failures.

  13. Kids these days, huh?

    https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/49840-53-of-18-to-24-year-olds-want-more-socialism

    This is from the last YouGov poll of a bit over two weeks ago. A whole new one should be out on Friday.
    ____________________________________________________________

    “Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head. ”
    “If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him. If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then.”
    “Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart; to be one at 30 is proof of want of head”
    “A young man who isn’t a socialist hasn’t got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn’t got a head.”

    Churchill, Clemenceau and others

  14. Boerwar

    “ Catholics?’
    ———————–
    Around 98% of catholic women use birth control other than ‘natural family planning’.
    The trend in Islamic countries is in the same general direction but from a higher recent level and is already lower than replacement rates in some countries.”
    ————
    I give up! What’s the relevance of that?

    I have been under the impression that the main reason we have a low fertility rate is a combination of the demands/greed of consumerism and political policy that it’s cheaper to import skilled workers than spend money on the unproductive years of new offspring, …. convenience of contemporary “neo-liberal” capitalism.

    But you were postulating that it’s due to the reproductive autonomy of women and other economic and government policies are not relevant.

    If you are correct, and you may be, but it seems strange to me that a sexually reproducing species requires the “enslavement” of one of the sexes otherwise it will become extinct.

  15. 》But disappointing the Greens aren’t making more of the whole nuclear thought bubble from the coalition.

    Why is it the responsibility of the Greens to do so when the media is doing that?

    As the other poster said the Greens get one question. Why should they use that question on something that is getting plenty of air time without them?

  16. Socrates @ #815 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 3:54 pm

    Aqualung

    “Are submarine reactors sealed for the life of the submarine?
    Just wondering if Marles statement was correct.”
    ———————————————–
    Marles needs to be careful here, and obviously knows no more about nuclear technology than his non-engineer advisors.

    Current model US SSN reactors are sealed for life. No uranium waste is removed from them till the end of the 30 years, unless they are refueled, which is not needed but is possible.

    However the nuclear reactor is in a reactor compartment with tightly controlled access. That compartment is not sealed. During maintenance, any components in that reactor compartment that have become irradiated and are not functional re removed and become waste. This happens roughly every ten years.

    Hence whilst the reactor is sealed no waste uranium is removed. But when maintenance occurs, other radioactive waste may be removed from near the reactor. The reactor is sealed, but the reactor room is not.

    Thanks. I was a bit worried he’d said the wrong thing. Duddon got on his feet quicker than I’ve ever seen him move before on a poo.
    Marles said the reactor was sealed for the life of the submarine. Phew

  17. 》“Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head. ”

    Or another way of looking at it.

    Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has already brought his house. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 is still to buy his house

  18. Indeed Cat; I wonder if thats why the current youngsters seem to be bucking the trend of shifting right as they grow older… harder to be a conservative when you have nothing to conserve

  19. ‘Rikali says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 4:00 pm

    Boerwar

    “ Catholics?’
    ———————–
    Around 98% of catholic women use birth control other than ‘natural family planning’.
    The trend in Islamic countries is in the same general direction but from a higher recent level and is already lower than replacement rates in some countries.”
    ————
    I give up! What’s the relevance of that?

    I have been under the impression that the main reason we have a low fertility rate is a combination of the demands/greed of consumerism and political policy that it’s cheaper to import skilled workers than spend money on the unproductive years of new offspring, …. convenience of contemporary “neo-liberal” capitalism.

    But you were postulating that it’s due to the reproductive autonomy of women and other economic and government policies are not relevant.

    If you are correct, and you may be, but it seems strange to me that a sexually reproducing species requires the “enslavement” of one of the sexes otherwise it will become extinct.’
    ——————————
    It is interesting! Perhaps the real reason there is no evidence of intelligent beings reaching us from elsewhere is not that intelligent species end up wiping themselves by way of warfare or planetary destruction but for a lack of procreation.
    There are some loose parallels in the non-human world. Many species require behaviours to trigger breeding behaviours. Sometimes the species-specific environmental cues for breeding behaviours disappear and perfectly fertile birds do not reproduce because copulatory behaviour is not triggered.

  20. Kos Samaras (Redbridge Group Polling), to be interviewed on Victoria’s 3AW 693 radio show at 4.30PM, where he will discuss some seat by seat polling including the 3-way seat of Macnamara.

    Link:

    https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1805118574312443965?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    If any Victorians are driving home, could you please flick over to 3AW at 4.30pm and report back on anything relevent he has to say.
    The 3AW website is now paywalled so interstate people can no longer listen in.

  21. @catprog:
    “》But disappointing the Greens aren’t making more of the whole nuclear thought bubble from the coalition.

    Why is it the responsibility of the Greens to do so when the media is doing that?

    As the other poster said the Greens get one question. Why should they use that question on something that is getting plenty of air time without them?”

    Ah yes, the cost of living and supermarket prices are definitely issues that nobody else is talking about today and needed the Greens to get to them.

    No, wait….

    Maybe Bandt could have asked a question like “Why did the Greens join with the Nats in refusing to pass the vape ban until it was watered down?”. Why does Big Tobacco now own the Greens?

  22. “Why did the Greens join with the Nats in refusing to pass the vape ban until it was watered down?”

    What? No! Seriously?

  23. Whatever Labor achieve, it’s never enough for The Greens. They can achieve nothing, but when Labor does something all The Greens can do is ‘Carp!’

    It must be so easy to receive almost 200 large a year to just wait around for Labor to do the hard yards and then say, but you should have done more! 🙄

  24. CAT, shame that the global scientific community agrees; opening new fossil fuel exploitation is directly counter of acting on climate change… which Labor has does.

    But hey, what do the experts know…

  25. Lordbain @ #823 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 4:05 pm

    Indeed Cat; I wonder if thats why the current youngsters seem to be bucking the trend of shifting right as they grow older… harder to be a conservative when you have nothing to conserve

    Oh dear, another one who is obsessed with me. Been gone since midday, but this guy is still @ me. I should be flattered. I guess. 😐

  26. @Confessions: Seriously.

    Jordan Steele-John muttered some shit justification about prohibition not working and whatnot.

  27. Holy shit CAT… its not like theres another user here called Catprog, which i was responding to.

    I mean I know you have an ego, but mate… you need to get over yourself 🙂

  28. 》Oh dear, another one who is obsessed with me. Been gone since midday

    Diffrent cat. This was too me.

    》Why did the Greens join with the Nats in refusing to pass the vape ban until it was watered down

    The Greens did not agree with Labour that people older then 18 would need a GP prescription to buy vapes. Instead the watering down means they can buy it from a pharmacy without a prescription

  29. @Lordbain: Yeah, instead of answering any of my arguments you just had the usual Greens drivel about centrists and the fossil fuel industry. Because you lot don’t have any actual responses.

    I also didn’t blame the 2019 election loss on the Greens or even mention it. I mentioned Bob Brown’s convoy as counterproductive because, as even Richard Di Natale has commented, it was demonstrably counterproductive.

    You guys can never accept being the tiniest bit wrong about anything even when you’re horribly wrong. It’s very annoying to argue against. You just ignore all the arguments and go HURR DURR CENTRISTS.

  30. @Catprog:
    “》Why did the Greens join with the Nats in refusing to pass the vape ban until it was watered down

    The Greens did not agree with Labour that people older then 18 would need a GP prescription to buy vapes. Instead the watering down means they can buy it from a pharmacy without a prescription”

    That’s not an answer to “why”, though. Why were they keen on making it easier for people to buy vapes?

  31. 2GB predictably in outrage mode over the Matt Kean appointment!
    A pretty canny appointment, Albanese trumped Dutton today.

  32. Kos Samaras on 3AW just now said RedBridge’s Macnamara poll had the Greens down from 29.65% at the election to 21%, despite them dominating the younger cohort (which, he suggests, is being priced out of the seat), with Liberal up a little. This would be good news for Labor member Josh Burns, who is threatened by the Greens and not the Libs.

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