Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)

An alliterative trio of seats faces redistribution-related preselection complications.

The site has been grappling with a few technical issues over the past day or so, which are hopefully now resolved. Perhaps this was the reason yesterday’s post following the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, which as expected was a lay-down misere for the Nationals, attracted a grand total of zero comments. Or perhaps not. Looking ahead, I believe we have a quiet week coming up on the polling front, unless The Australian treats us to quarterly Newspoll aggregates with state and demographic breakdowns, which are about due. Other than that, there is likely to be only the weekly Roy Morgan until the three-weekly YouGov poll, which past form suggests should be with us on Friday.

Much of this week’s preselection news relates directly or indirectly to the federal redistributions, which I discussed with Ben Raue of The Tally Room in a podcast you can access at the bottom of this post:

The West Australian reports former state Nationals leader Mia Davies has confirmed approaches from “senior Nationals in the eastern states” to run in the proposed new seat of Bullwinkel, which partly corresponds with the state seat of Central Wheatbelt that she he has held since 2013. The idea has been talked up by party leader David Littleproud, and not ruled out by Davies. Davies led the Nationals from the defeat of the Barnett government in March 2017 and held the title of Opposition Leader after the party emerged from the 2021 election landslide with more seats than the Liberals, before stepping aside in January 2023 and announcing she would not contest the next election. She became a figure of controversy within the party when she called for Barnaby Joyce to resign in 2018 over sexual harassment allegations.

Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “teal sources not permitted to speak on the record” say Nicolette Boele, who was gearing up for a second run as an independent in Bradfield, remains keen despite expectations Kylea Tink will seek to move there with the mooted abolition of her seat of North Sydney. Boele came within 4.2% of unseating Liberal member Paul Fletcher in 2022. Reports last week suggested former state Treasurer Matt Kean, who announced his impending departure from state parliament on Tuesday, might challenge Fletcher for Liberal preselection, but Sakkal reports party sources saying he will only seek the seat if Fletcher retires. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports any path to preselection for Kean in Bradfield would be complicated by the fact that the redistribution leaves his “Liberal branch enemies” within the redrawn seat.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has been lobbying for the NSW Liberal Party to reopen the preselection process for Bennelong, after the proposed new boundaries made it more favourable to the party by adding territory from abolished North Sydney. Such a move would come at the expense of Scott Yung, a tutoring business owner who came with 1.8% of deposing Chris Minns from his seat of Kogarah at the state election in 2019, who was preselected unopposed last October. A source is also quoted saying Gisele Kapterian, who had been preselected for North Sydney, also canvassed for support for Bennelong, but has decided not to proceed.

Annika Smethurst of The Age reports on resistance in local Labor branches to a Socialist Left faction fait accompli that appears set to deliver preselection for the outer northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, which will be vacated with the retirement of Maria Vamvakinou, to Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents. Sensitivities are heightened by the fact that members only had preselection rights restored to them a year ago after a three-year takeover of the state branch by the national executive following branck-stacking scandals, with some reportedly threatening to back a “Dai Le-style campaign”.

Blake Antrobus of news.com.au reports Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick has failed in his court bid against his preselection defeat last year, the court having ruled that the Liberal National Party was within its rights to set a 60-day time frame for lodging an appeal which Rennick failed to meet.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,081 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Bullwinkel, Bradfield and Bennelong (open thread)”

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  1. The QT trainwreck for Dutton was the lead news story on Ch10 news.

    The government would appear to have a spring in its step, as it should. The nuclear thought bubble is just sheer nonsense, a sop to the Nationals, and as David Speers elicited yesterday, has had next to no serious policy analysis put towards it.

    How Dutton and co expect to cruise through the next 12 months until the next election fielding questions about this is anyone’s guess.

  2. Thanks WB. I was surprised, I could always listen to 3AW from Brissy, but now can’t, unless I sign in after creating an account, or whatever. Thanks for having a listen.
    There is a lot of confusion with the polls. I saw YouGov had younger people now “into Socialism”, yet Macnamara, which has a young population seems to be going against the trend. Most polls seem to have the under 30 year old co-hort registering around the 25% primary mark for the Greens too.
    Per Macnamara – With the Greens vote down and Libs up, why are you saying this is good for Labor. Is it because the Greens will come in 3rd, then be distributed roughly 86% to Labor. Is that what you are suggesting?

  3. The text of a Dutton point of order – “It’s on relevance and perhaps to be of assistance to the minister. The propulsion system burns energy. That’s how the system is working, and it’s stored in”.
    _________________
    Have you ever heard such scientifically uninformed drivel in all your life? Burn energy?

  4. A pretty canny appointment, Albanese trumped Dutton today.

    Count me as unimpressed with the Kean appointment today. There are any number of eminently qualified experts who could lay claim to the chair role, a pivotal one given where we are in the policy and public debate space surrounding climate change and energy transition right now.

    What Labor have done is make this a political appointment when they didn’t need to. There was no reason to appoint an ex politician, much less an ex Liberal politician to this role when there are umpteen number of actual experts out there who could’ve met the position requirements on merit.

  5. Apparently (SMH) the five protestors in the gallery at the HOR today were four women and a man shouting “Jews for a free Palestine” and “Stop arming Israel”. Aha.

  6. Yes, Labor has nothing to fear from Liberal in Macnamara, so the main thing for them is that the Greens are down (unless you want to think big and say the increase in the Liberal vote is indicative of a larger problem that will cost them elsewhere). If I understood Kos Samaras correctly, he was saying the Greens are if anything increasing in their dominance among the young, but they’re being priced out of the market in Macnamara.

  7. Have you ever heard such scientifically uninformed drivel in all your life? Burn energy?

    I just watched David Speers interview Ted O’Brien. So, yes I have!

  8. Hi there, PollBludgers,

    I’m an active Victorian Green. There are a number of active Greens who are pro- nuclear. ☢️. (About the same number as the Terfs.)

    I am not one of either of those groups.

    Hous8ng, supermarkets and cost of living are the only things Greens meetings are discussing right now. The climate apocalypse remains an article faith hanging over evert other issue.

  9. 》That’s not an answer to “why”, though. Why were they keen on making it easier for people to buy vapes?

    Do you think a GPS time is best served writing a script for someone to buy a vape or talking to someone who is stick?

    Plus wouldn’t the taxpayer pay something like $30 per script to the gp in rebates for the appointment?

  10. Mustn’t have polled the nuclear seats –

    The Albanese Government has edged narrowly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on two-party preferred terms: ALP 51% (up 1%) cf. Coalition 49% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton placed nuclear energy at the centre of the Coalition’s policy agenda for next year’s Federal election.

    If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP likely to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

    On a State-by-State basis the national swing to the ALP was built on swings in New South Wales (ALP: +3.5%), Western Australia (ALP: +4.5%) and South Australia (ALP: +5%). There was no swing to either party in Victoria while in Queensland the LNP gained a swing of 3.5% against the national trend.

    On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP leads in NSW, Victoria, WA and SA while the Coalition has a sizeable lead in Queensland. It is worth noting the LNP holds 21/30 (70%) of Federal seats in Queensland and both Coalition Leaders are from the State. Liberal Leader Peter Dutton and Nationals Leader David Littleproud.

    Primary support for the Coalition was down 1% to 37% this week while the ALP closed the gap, up 2% to 31.5%. However, support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13%.

    Support for One Nation increased 1% to 6%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 8.5%.

  11. On a State-by-State basis the national swing to the ALP was built on swings in New South Wales (ALP: +3.5%), Western Australia (ALP: +4.5%) and South Australia (ALP: +5%). There was no swing to either party in Victoria while in Queensland the LNP gained a swing of 3.5% against the national trend.

    As expected, the hometown boy Peter Dutton is glorifying in his provincial pitch.

    Sadly for him, the rest of the country think he’s a dud.

  12. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    Morgan ALP 31.5 L-NP 37 Green 13 ON 6 IND 8.5 other 4.0.
    Their respondent prefs 2PP 51 to ALP (+1)
    my last-election prefs estimate 51.9 to ALP (+1.3)

    No impact on my all-polls 2PP aggregate as it displaces the high Morgan from 2 weeks ago, still 51.0.

    There will be and probably already are tweets claiming that the ALP increase here is a reaction to Dutton’s nuclear plan but the rise is not nearly statistically significant and is in a bouncy poll series from a low base. Nothing to see.

  13. Michele Levine of Morgan says:

    “The Coalition’s bold announcement that they would take a policy of building nuclear power stations to next year’s election has drawn a large contrast between the two major parties. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has outlined plans to build nuclear power stations in seven different electorates around Australia including two in Queensland and NSW and one each in Victoria, WA and SA.

    “The State-by-State swings show the only positive reaction for the Coalition last week was in Queensland which was the only State to swing to the Opposition. Both Dutton and Nationals Leader David Littleproud are from Queensland and the party holds 70% of Federal seats in the State (21/30).

    Is Australia ready to live under the yoke of the QLDers?

  14. FFS, the greens owe their existence to the threat to the environment !!!!!!!! And now its the grocery cart, Palestine ( which we are all aware and supportive of, well mostly) and vaping. All the greens that I know love MJ. Sanctimonious bs ers.

  15. Thanks WB at 5.13pm.
    Ok, got it. Younger people who want to live(rent) in the inner city and experience the CBD vibe are getting priced out and moving back to the burbs or in with mum & dad, presumably taking their vote with them. Gosh, complicated stuff.

  16. More Levine..

    “Although the result this week narrowly favours the Albanese Government, a close margin of 51-49 repeated at the Federal Election is most likely to lead to a hung Parliament with the support of minor party and independents required to form government. Most cross-benchers in the House of Representatives, including Greens and the so-called ‘Teal Independents’ have already come out against Dutton’s plan to build nuclear power plants.”

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9614-federal-voting-intention-june-24-2024

  17. A Northern Territory MP says she will pursue legal action against Victorian senator Lidia Thorpe over allegations made in a Senate estimates hearing.
    Earlier this month, Federal Member for Lingiari Marion Scrymgour was the subject of questions by Senator Thorpe alleging that the federal member had misappropriated COVID-19 stimulus funding while serving as chief executive of the Northern Land Council.
    Senator Thorpe asked current land council executives if a $400,000 grant had been paid by the NLC to a remote Aboriginal corporation “to build a holiday house for Ms Scrymgour’s family at Twin Hill Station”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-24/marion-scrymgour-pursues-legal-action-against-lidia-thorpe/104013978

  18. Thanks sprocket and others re Morgan.

    I will wait for other polls, esp in relation to the nuclear reaction. And even on that, I think this will play out over the coming months, as I said earlier. The longer the coalition cannot deliver answers to even basic questions about nuclear, the harder it gets for them to keep the fig leaf in play.

  19. outside left @ #858 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 5:25 pm

    FFS, the greens owe their existence to the threat to the environment !!!!!!!! And now its the grocery cart, Palestine ( which we are all aware and supportive of, well mostly) and vaping. All the greens that I know love MJ. Sanctimonious bs ers.

    The Teals are now the ‘party’ of the environment.

  20. Boerwar @ #813 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 3:49 pm

    ‘Sandman says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm

    Greens leader gets one question in the HOR and what is it about. Nukes? No. The environment? No….it’s supermarket regulations. He has gone MIA on nukes and nothing to say about the pro Palestine protestors up in the gallery yelling and whining. What a waste of space he is.’
    ———————–
    So is Bandt fixated on the price of pork chops?

    Legs of Lamb? 😐

  21. CAT, you claiming anyone doesnt live in the real world is the classic arrogance I expect from you 🙂

    But then you think you have a monopoly on the word cat in this forum…

  22. Is Australia ready to live under the yoke of the QLDers?

    Those results certainly explain why the Liberals are now owned by the Nationals.

  23. I find the idea of a seat losing younger, lower income voters increasing the chances of Labor winning it a hilarious concept.

    Yes, I know it’s vs. The Greens and wouldn’t be the case if it was Labor vs. Coalition but I still find the statement funny on a basic level.

  24. BK @ #853 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 5:11 pm

    The text of a Dutton point of order – “It’s on relevance and perhaps to be of assistance to the minister. The propulsion system burns energy. That’s how the system is working, and it’s stored in”.
    _________________
    Have you ever heard such scientifically uninformed drivel in all your life? Burn energy?

    Word salad from a political dolt.

  25. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 5:14 pm

    Have you ever heard such scientifically uninformed drivel in all your life? Burn energy?

    I just watched David Speers interview Ted O’Brien. So, yes I have!’
    ———————
    There is a fair bit of ignorance on the topic.
    In laypersons terms:
    when you burn energy you create weightless CO2.

  26. It’s interesting that swing against the LNP in WA & NSW.
    Forget about QLD, as the swing to the LNP in QLD will only bolster existing margins. Similar to a swing to the ALP in the A.C.T. Means nothing because it’s seats, not margins, which count.
    From memory, W.A. was the home of the extinct Nuclear Disarmament Party, which managed to elect a Senator in the mid 1980’s. So despite W.A. being a massive mining part of Australia, there is an element there who are opposed to expanded uranium mining and reactors.
    Although it is just one poll, it still has a decent sample. I think Mr Dutton needs to spend a bit more time in NSW and W.A. ie: less Geneva, more Jakarta, meaning Less QLD, more WA & NSW.

  27. ‘Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 5:32 pm

    I find the idea of a seat losing younger, lower income voters increasing the chances of Labor winning it a hilarious concept.

    Yes, I know it’s vs. The Greens and wouldn’t be the case if it was Labor vs. Coalition but I still find the statement funny on a basic level.’
    ——————-
    A Greens talking about laughing?

  28. “Kos Samaras on 3AW just now said RedBridge’s Macnamara poll had the Greens down from 29.65% at the election to 21%, despite them dominating the younger cohort (which, he suggests, is being priced out of the seat), with Liberal up a little. This would be good news for Labor member Josh Burns, who is threatened by the Greens and not the Libs.”

    I could have (and did actually) tell anyone who’d listen that the Greens’ antics on Israel/Gaza may aid them in other Labor vs Greens seats but had ended their chances in Macnamara. It’s not because young people suddenly got priced out of there since 2022. It’s because it’s the most Jewish seat in the state (country?) and the perception in the area rightly or wrongly is that too many involved with the Greens, both at Parliamentary level and the local ferals, cross the line between anti-Israeli (which many Jews in the seat agree with!) and anti Jewish full stop, and give comfort and cover to full blown anti-Semites. The arson attack on Josh Burns’ office will have cemented this.

    I didn’t hear Kos’ interview so I don’t know if he covered this ground at all or if he’s just somehow a bit unfamilar with southern Melbourne dynamics compared to his more normal stomping grounds -in return I don’t pretend to know all the ins and outs of the People’s Republic of Merri-bek, since I’m not from that side of the river – but it seems rather a major demographic point to ignore for Labor vs Greens polling.

  29. Heres Arky to tell the experts why they are wrong.

    Arky, can you point me to your publication; obviously you know better 🙂

  30. Josh Burns’ electorate office was trashed by likely supporters of The Greens (who else would they be voting for, the only one I can think of would be the CPA). I’m sure that has horrified the more reasonable, now former supporters of The Greens.

  31. In laypersons terms:
    when you burn energy you create weightless CO2.
    ______________
    Boerwar
    Next thing Dutton and Ted the Dill will be promoting the phlogiston theory!

  32. Catprogsays:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 5:15 pm
    》That’s not an answer to “why”, though. Why were they keen on making it easier for people to buy vapes?

    Do you think a GP’s time is best served writing a script for someone to buy a vape or talking to someone who is sick?

    Plus wouldn’t the taxpayer pay something like $30 per script to the gp in rebates for the appointment?

    Very sensible reasoning.

  33. Arky @ #840 Monday, June 24th, 2024 – 4:40 pm

    @Catprog:
    “》Why did the Greens join with the Nats in refusing to pass the vape ban until it was watered down

    The Greens did not agree with Labour that people older then 18 would need a GP prescription to buy vapes. Instead the watering down means they can buy it from a pharmacy without a prescription”

    That’s not an answer to “why”, though. Why were they keen on making it easier for people to buy vapes?

    As a former pharmacist, can I say that this is a silly amendment. I think that, if there was a race for a bucket of money between Premiers and Pharmacists then the Pharmacists would win every time. So, as I have just seen in the US, where pharmacies sell groceries, liquor and cigarettes, that The Greens have just turned pharmacies in Australia into American-style drug stores. Great work, Adam!

    Unless The Greens’ amendment also included a recording mechanism and limitations of the number of vapes which can be purchased. But then addicts just shop around.

  34. @Catprog:
    “Do you think a GPS time is best served writing a script for someone to buy a vape or talking to someone who is stick?”

    I’m pretty sure that isn’t the reason given by the Greens for their stance.

    I don’t know if we are having such a lack of GP time that they can’t write a script for an anti-smoking aid for a smoker, this is like saying we can’t have GPs write scripts for methadone for heroin addicts, they should be talking to someone who has a cold instead (actually, do GPs even write scripts for methadone or does it have to be a specialist? I’m sheltered on this). Smoking is a health problem and it is worth a GP’s time to see a smoker about stopping smoking.

    “Plus wouldn’t the taxpayer pay something like $30 per script to the gp in rebates for the appointment?”

    No idea. Also sure that isn’t the given reason by the Greens.

  35. Lordbain says:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 5:35 pm
    BW… think your going to find that Co2 has a weight old buddy old pal

    I think BW was riffing off Tony Abbott’s famous quote:

    ”HOW do you measure how much emissions we’re using? How would you do that?” It’s a question at the heart of Julia Gillard’s campaign to deliver Australia a clean energy future, yet the vast majority of people the Prime Minister is asking to support her price on carbon would have no idea how carbon dioxide emissions are calculated.

    It fell to Andrew Cullen, a young cleaner with an inquisitive mind, to ask the question of Tony Abbott when the Opposition Leader stood before a group of workers in their lunch room at a South Dandenong engine factory this week. ”That’s a good question!” Abbott replied, engaging not just Cullen but the entire room.

    ‘It’s actually pretty hard to do this because carbon dioxide is invisible and it’s weightless and you can’t smell it,” Abbott began, projecting frankness.

    ”So it’s not something that you can just look at and say: ‘Yeah, we can quantify that’.”

    This was 12 years ago, and nothing much has changed in the QLD LNP..

  36. On the flipside, is this the simmering debate over Nuclear that we really needed to have? Is the overwhelming science, economics and morality argument, getting out there finally, a good thing. Tories are always procrastinators, “missed by that much” (tm Maxwell Smart) sums it up.

  37. Three reasons why I think nuclear power plants are a disaster.

    1. Excessive cost to taxpayer/consumer

    2. The need to store waste

    3. Military target

  38. I am surprised by todays Morgan poll. Not for it’s result but for the fact that it has not wildly swung this week. For the last 3 or 4, it has been up, down, up….
    Like House of Pains’ Jump Around!

  39. This is a very interesting background article outlining the moves and the influencers leading up to Dutton’s big pivot to nuclear. A very familiar grifter’s name pops up again, Trevor St Baker:

    The conservative charity group figures driving the opposition leader’s pivot to nuclear energy
    When Lesley Hughes agreed to lead a nocturnal wildlife tour at Sydney’s Taronga Zoo in August last year, she didn’t quite realise what she was letting herself in for. As the distinguished professor of biology explained the perils facing the animal kingdom from climate change, a disparate group of movers and shakers nodded with polite enthusiasm – among them, National Party leader David Littleproud, Liberal Party climate and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien, and Larry Anthony, the head of a lobbying firm known for pushing fossil fuel clients.

    This was not the professor’s natural milieu, but, like many of the guests at the splendid harbourside function centre that wintry evening, Hughes was there to win hearts and minds in the fight to save the planet. It was the opening night of the International Climate Conference hosted by the Coalition for Conservation, an enterprising conservative charity with deep roots in the Liberal and National parties. One of its aims is to reach out to environmentalists, renewable energy experts and climate scientists to garner support for Coalition members backing the goal of getting Australia to net zero emissions.

    But as the guests tucked into the opening night dinner, one speaker sounded a jarring partisan note: C4C’s influential patron, Trevor St Baker, couldn’t resist taking a swipe at the Albanese government’s renewable energy policy. St Baker’s intervention was telling. The Queensland rich-lister was close to C4C’s chairman, Larry Anthony, a former National Party president. For years, he had employed Anthony’s lobby shop, SAS Consulting, back when he was in the coal-fired power business. Now St Baker was investing in the energy transition – electric vehicle charging and battery technology – but his passion project was nuclear energy and, in particular, introducing the idea of small modular nuclear reactors to Australia.

    Professor Hughes is watching the divisive nuclear debate unfold with dismay. A director of the Climate Council, Hughes has been a lead author with the UN’s chief scientific advisory panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and now sits on the federal government’s Climate Change Authority advising on its emissions reduction targets. “In my opinion, given the lack of any economic rationale for nuclear, one can only conclude that it’s a distraction to allow the fossil fuel industry to keep operating with business as usual,” she says.

    The party’s most vocal renewable energy advocate, former New South Wales energy minister Matt Kean, has launched a stinging attack against the policy push. “I am not opposed to nuclear power,” he tells me. “I was state energy minister for five years. If nuclear power was a viable pathway to net zero, I would have done it. But it did not stack up – economically, environmentally or engineering-wise.”

    Kean was speaking shortly after he resigned from his role as ambassador for the C4C environmental charity. In his frank resignation letter, he told C4C’s chair, Larry Anthony, that he saw the advocacy for nuclear power “as an attempt to delay and defer responsible and decisive action on climate change in a way that seems to drive up power prices in NSW by delaying renewables”.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2024/may/marian-wilkinson/dutton-s-nuclear-power-plants

    Fascinating.

  40. This was 12 years ago, and nothing much has changed in the QLD LNP..

    Party like it’s 2013!

    Seriously though, it’s pretty depressing that the alternative government can’t operate in current times.

  41. Cat
    “Josh Burns’ electorate office was trashed by likely supporters of The Greens (who else would they be voting for, the only one I can think of would be the CPA). I’m sure that has horrified the more reasonable, now former supporters of The Greens.”

    For the record I’m not defending that one. Straight out vandalism. No excuse for it.

  42. Sprocket ready to declare victory off one Morgan poll.

    Perhaps a little caution is warranted – or at least a couple more polls before premature celebration is called for?

  43. Socrates did you defend Nicolle Flint after the siege of her then electorate office? It was known associates of yours who were involved no?

  44. What a simple target for a terrorist ( towelheads for youse tories), whereas local networks just carry on . Bushfires and floods are what terrorise us, and only one party has addressed this issue.

  45. I would not be surprised in future to see, on average, the Coalition wins most elections based on a massive vote in Queensland while losing the 2pp in every other jurisdiction.

    All hail the land of vanilla!

  46. Arkysays:
    Monday, June 24, 2024 at 5:36 pm
    “Kos Samaras on 3AW just now said RedBridge’s Macnamara poll had the Greens down from 29.65% at the election to 21%, despite them dominating the younger cohort (which, he suggests, is being priced out of the seat), with Liberal up a little. This would be good news for Labor member Josh Burns, who is threatened by the Greens and not the Libs.”
    ——————–
    St Kilda has one of the lowest mediums for units in inner Melbourne.

    St Kilda $522k
    South Yarra $545k
    Fitzroy 755k
    Richmond $595k
    Hawthorn $585k

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