Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

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  1. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism.
    The generation raised in childcare 50+% more supportive of Authoritarianism than people in general? The future looks rosy for The Greens on those numbers.

  2. From those numbers I get the feeling that people, moreso than not, are not opposed to nuclear, buuuuuuuuut, they’d much rather have Renewables with Pumped Hydro, batteries and gas backup. 🙂

  3. I’d be thinking twice about voting for Donald Trump if I were an American Jew:

    A former employee of Donald Trump’s pre-presidency organization has publicly claimed that he once made jokes about Nazi “ovens” while Jewish executives were in the same room.

    Barbara Res – a lead engineer on the construction of Trump Tower and author of a memoir, Tower of Lies, about her almost two decades working for the former president – told MSNBC on Sunday that her erstwhile boss would make “ridiculous remarks”.

    “We had just hired a residential manager, a German guy,” Res said. “And Donald [Trump] was bragging among – to us executives, there were four of us – about how great the guy was and he was a real gentleman, and he was so neat and clean. And he looked at a couple of our executives who happen to be Jewish, and he said, ‘Watch out for this guy – he sort of remembers the ovens,’ you know, and then smiled.

    😯

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/24/trump-nazi-oven-joke

  4. Oh wow! Adam Morton absolutely rips the Coalition’s case for Nuclear apart in this article:

    So much has been said by the Coalition about what nuclear energy could do for Australia, with so little evidence to back it up, that it can be hard to keep up with the claims.

    The key assertion by Peter Dutton and Ted O’Brien is that nuclear would lead to a “cheaper, cleaner and consistent” electricity supply. None of this has been supported.

    Not cheaper: the available evidence suggests both nuclear and gas-fired electricity – which Dutton says we would need a lot more of – would be more expensive for Australian consumers than the currently proposed mix of renewable energy, batteries, hydro, new transmission lines and limited amounts of gas.

    Not cleaner: stringing out the life of old coal plants and adding gas would increase heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions.

    Not more consistent: the Coalition is proposing a small post-2040 nuclear industry that, even in a best-case-scenario, is likely to provide only a fraction of Australia’s electricity. It wants less solar and wind, but has not explained how this would help keep the lights on as coal plants shut.

    There has been less attention on the Coalition’s repeated suggestion that Australia is the only one of the world’s top 20 economies that either doesn’t have or hasn’t signed up to nuclear energy.

    It’s a point that has been raised to imply a bigger point: that nuclear energy is flourishing elsewhere and Australia is out on a limb by not having it.

    Let’s test that.

    Despite some perceptions, the global growth in electricity from renewables since 2010 has also been greater than the growth in fossil fuel generation. The problem for people and the planet is that electricity from coal and gas is still growing at all.

    Nuclear might seem ideal on paper to replace them, but the reality is much more difficult, especially in developed democracies.

    Renewable energy is already providing nearly 40% of electricity in the Australian national grid
    Simon Holmes à Court, a player in these debates as an energy analyst and convenor of the Climate 200 fundraising body, says only five large-scale nuclear projects have reached construction stage in North America and western Europe this century.

    Four have been hit by substantial delays and cost overruns. In each case, construction has taken more than twice as long as initially forecast. The price tags have ended up being somewhere between double and six times initial estimates.

    Small modular nuclear reactors, which the Coalition also included in its announcement, do not exist in any commercial sense.

    The Coalition’s argument in response to this evidence is that Australia needs these technologies, urgently. And that they would be cheap.

    Out on the ground, renewable energy is already providing nearly 40% of electricity in the Australian national grid. The rollout is proving challenging due to problems with planning, grid connections and getting construction deals signed.

    But some of the country’s best energy analysts say solar and wind energy have not driven the spike in power bills in recent years. And the Australian Energy Market Operator has found renewables plus firming support can meet the country’s baseload electricity demand – that is, the minimum generation needed – at the lowest cost possible.

    It found it when the Coalition was in power, and has found it under Labor. Perhaps we should just get on with it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/25/the-coalition-talks-so-much-about-its-nuclear-energy-plan-but-provides-so-little-evidence

  5. 9 days to go Deltapoll Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults
    (Changes from 14th – 17th June 2024)
    Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll.
    Lab 43% (-3)
    Con 19% (-)
    Reform 15% (-1)
    Lib Dem 13% (+3)
    SNP 2% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 2% (+1)

  6. The federal lib/nats did a lot of political damage to themselves in question time over Dutton’s nuclear thought bubble, can see it continuing this and next week

  7. Scott the PB Oracle has pronounced.

    Let’s see how this all unfolds, polling looks like fragments atm, should be much sharper once Newspoll reports on the weekend (hopefully).

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The new chair of Australia’s peak climate change agency, former NSW Liberal minister Matt Kean, has rejected nuclear power in public remarks that have infuriated the Coalition and heightened the federal clash on climate and energy. David Crowe says Kean, the former state treasurer and energy minister, said he believed nuclear energy would have “bankrupted” NSW because scientific advice showed it would take too long and cost too much to build the controversial power stations. He’s already got under their skin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-liberal-minister-s-new-climate-role-heightens-federal-energy-clash-20240624-p5jo48.html
    “The nuclear debate is getting heated, but whose energy plan stacks up?”, asks Mike Foley who examines some of the Coalition’s key points. They come up well short.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nuclear-debate-is-getting-heated-but-whose-energy-plan-stacks-up-20240624-p5jo45.html
    David Crowe tells us how Labor convinced Matt Kean to take the key CCA job.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-labor-convinced-a-former-liberal-treasurer-to-take-a-key-climate-job-20240624-p5jobw.html
    The Coalition says the rest of the G20 is powering ahead with nuclear – it’s just not true, explains Adam Morton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/25/the-coalition-talks-so-much-about-its-nuclea.r-energy-plan-but-provides-so-little-evidence
    The Coalition says its nuclear plants will run for 100 years. Peter Hannam lays out why this is simply hopeful BS.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/24/coalition-nuclear-policy-peter-dutton-power-plants-100-years-run-time
    Dutton’s nonsensical foray into nuclear energy reminds Australian voters again of the issues prevalent within this country’s Constitution and democratic institutions, Dr Klaas Woldring writes. He says Dutton’s nuclear plan can only exist in a broken democratic system
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-nuclear-plan-can-only-exist-in-a-broken-democratic-system,18707
    Nick O’Malley explains how the prospect of Trump 2.0 is emboldening the Coalition on climate change. Frightening stuff!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/how-the-prospect-of-trump-2-0-is-emboldening-the-coalition-on-climate-change-20240614-p5jlrh.html
    The Coalition shook up Australia’s energy debate last week when it unveiled the seven sites where, if elected, it would build nuclear power plants. In making the announcement, the Coalition emphasised the importance of community consultation in its nuclear energy plan. But what does that actually mean?
    https://theconversation.com/no-nuclear-veto-if-the-coalition-isnt-seeking-community-consent-is-that-really-consultation-232980
    Jack Waterford writes that if Labor permits the next election to be a referendum about nuclear power, there’s a very good chance that Peter Dutton would win handsomely. For one thing it will be on ground of the Opposition’s choosing. For another, it would not be a poll about nuclear power for very long, but an open-ended referendum about the merits of the Albanese government. That would be tapping a lot of disappointment as well as discontent.
    https://johnmenadue.com/nuclear-vibrations-pose-more-threat-to-albo-than-dutton/
    The number of people with histories of mental illness and violent behaviour successfully appealing police objections to them being issued with firearm licences is a cause for concern for all the community, but particularly for victims of domestic violence, declares the SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/people-with-mental-health-issues-should-hang-up-their-guns-20240624-p5jo6m.html
    The number of Australians betting on sport has doubled in five years, and a third of spending on bets is placed by people with a gambling problem, according to new polling. Surely, it’s time for governments to get tough on this blight.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/25/number-of-australian-problem-gamblers-placing-bets-with-predatory-companies-revealed-in-poll
    Tom McIlroy reports that supermarket giant Woolworths wants an inquiry into how prices for fresh fruit and vegetables are set in Australia, saying greater transparency is needed about the costs paid to farmers. Welcoming federal Labor’s move to make the food and grocery code of conduct mandatory for big players, Woolworths said better information about price-setting practices for fresh produce was needed.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fruit-and-veg-price-transparency-needed-woolies-20240624-p5jo46
    The mainstream media’s mantra of declining prosperity in Australia is a deceitful warping of the economic reality, Alan Austin reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-cost-of-living-crisis-is-being-marketed-cleverly-but-is-it-true,18706
    According to Phil Coorey, Government plans to raise the tax rate on superannuation accounts valued at more than $3 million have suffered a blow, with key Senate crossbenchers opposed to the taxation of unrealised gains. The government will use its numbers to push the legislation through the House of Representatives this sitting fortnight, and then wants it through the Senate after parliament resumes in August.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-blow-to-labor-s-tax-hit-on-super-20240624-p5jo55
    A wide-ranging probe to overhaul the nation’s sexual assault laws will “deal with every issue” that arose after Brittany Higgins ­accused Bruce Lehrmann of raping her in Parliament House and will examine whether civil ­remedies, with lower standards of proof, can bring justice for complainants. Two long-term judges presiding over the review – Australian Law Reform Commission president Mordecai Bromberg and part-time commissioner Marcia Neave – said yesterday the ­inquiry would investigate the “non-engagement” of rape victims with criminal solutions and examine whether there were alternative civil remedies that could bring them justice.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/australian-law-reform-commission-probe-to-deal-with-issues-from-brittany-higgins-and-bruce-lehrmann-saga/news-story/5c877e2502c3f7c0914c1fbf08aac472?amp=
    Australians will be able to buy plain-packaged nicotine vapes from pharmacies without a prescription from October after the Albanese government walked back its world-leading plan to outlaw all e-cigarette sales without a doctor’s prescription. Drug stores?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vapes-will-be-sold-behind-the-counter-under-watered-down-ban-20240624-p5joaq.html
    Paul Karp says that with the Liberals being non-committal, Labor was driven into the arms of the ‘anti-prohibition’ Greens on vaping.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/25/with-the-liberals-non-committal-labor-was-driven-into-the-arms-of-anti-prohibition-greens-on-vaping
    Pharmacists have erupted at a plan to water down Australia’s world-first vaping ban by allowing vape products to be sold in pharmacies without a prescription.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2024/06/25/pharmacy-vapes-ban
    The ABC’s ambiguous response to the News Corp firestorm targeted at Laura Tingle shows its willingness to succumb to the right-wing Australian media perspective, Victoria Fielding writes.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-gutless-for-not-backing-laura-tingle-over-racist-country-remarks,18708
    High-speed trains are no silver bullet, but they could help shift house prices, suggests Millie Muroi.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/high-speed-trains-are-no-silver-bullet-but-could-help-shift-house-prices-20240622-p5jnui.html
    A weak integrity agency is worse than useless; it is dangerous, argues Geoffrey Watson.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8670732/a-weak-integrity-agency-is-worse-than-useless-it-is-dangerous/?cs=14258
    The National Anti-Corruption Commission has fallen at the first hurdle, writes John Lord.
    https://theaimn.com/the-national-anti-corruption-commission-has-fallen-at-the-first-hurdle/
    Big banks, retail giants and Australia Post have agreed to a $50 million bailout for the struggling cash transit business Armaguard, in a move aimed at securing cash supplies for at least the next year. Clancy Yeates writes that as use of cash continues to drop and consumers opt for electronic payments, the nation’s main cash delivery business Armaguard, owned by billionaire Lindsay Fox’s company Linfox, last year said its future was at risk.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cash-crisis-averted-as-banks-retailers-throw-armaguard-50m-lifeline-20240624-p5jo7a.html
    Trucking deaths are rising in Australia amid worries over corner-cutting on safety and driver fatigue. Yet, for whistleblower Roxanne Mysko, exposing it means persecution, writes Andrew Gardiner.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/trucking-deaths-on-the-rise-but-safety-whistleblower-ignored-then-prosecuted/
    Stephen Bartholomeusz enlightens us on the multitrillion-dollar threat that could spark another financial crisis. He tells us that financial regulators have been concerned about the rate of growth in the non-bank, or shadow banking, sector and the risks that growth might pose to financial systems.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-multitrillion-dollar-threat-that-could-spark-another-financial-crisis-20240624-p5jo3y.html
    Could Nigel Farage become the next Tory leader? In some ways, he already has, says Samuel Earle.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/24/nigel-farage-reform-uk-tory-leader-far-right
    Peter Hartcher writes about what most Israelis hope will happen to Netanyahu when the war is over. He says that more Israelis would vote for a man who’s not even in parliament if an election were held today, according to a poll published last week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/what-most-israelis-hope-will-happen-to-netanyahu-when-the-war-is-over-20240624-p5jo5s.html
    Margaret Sullivan thinks that if Joe Biden is to win November’s election, he must win this week’s televised debate. He must come off as energetic and competent. He must make the case, persuasively, that Donald Trump is a danger to the nation and the world. And, perhaps most of all, he must seem mentally sharp.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/24/trump-biden-debate-rightwing-media

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding




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    Mark Knight

    Leak doing a Spooner

    From the US










  9. Lars Von Trier
    The federal lib/nats are making themselves look more incompetent each day , by asking questions about the safety of nuclear subs , when they were the federal government who ordered them
    If they had reasons to be worried about the nuclear subs, why sign a deal

  10. “Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the [nu_c_ular] plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.”

    Rant on.

    Sigh, the VTP&E got rejected. Only the Ersatz fICAC/ CIC/ NACC inspector gen seems to do anything about Robodebt. Nuthink much besides JobGiver/ $$Ns, or JobSeeker, just no JobKeeper claw backs. Some one of energy bill credits. Opportunity/ cost of living … it’s back to the office for many. Royalties on gas to debt? Public money’s still going to private schools. Every family seems to be going through waves of flu/ RSV/ Wuflu. Climate arguments over approaches rather than mitigation/ adaptation/ transformation seem to be back. Other infra than a portfolio ‘Tel Aviv … Albo’ once held, even values and principles (ABC/ RMIT Promise Tracker is even on a small target strategy increasingly showing stalled or broken promises), comms, housing, transport, water?
    Meanwhile the legal system seems focused on whistleblowers/ journos/ activists, at least there’s more focus on diplomacy, trade, rather than sabre rattling.

    Rant off.

    So let’s see which polls ask direction of country questions.

    “Climate records are being broken by large margins and Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are both failing to [pursue adequate] solutions writes Alex Bainbridge.

    Despite Earth experiencing month after month of record temperature rises, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition leader Peter Dutton are playing us for fools on climate.

    [“ Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal.”]

    May was the 12th month in a row to break global average temperature records.

    While temperatures across Australia have been comparatively moderate over the past year, the global average is frighteningly high.

    Africa is experiencing “one of the most intense heatwaves” in its history, according to meteorologist Scott Duncan.

    Not only are records being broken; they are being broken by large margins.

    Most of the past 12 months were more than 1.5°C above a 1850–1900 baseline.

    In other words, the world is not on track to achieve the Paris climate agreement goals.

    Labor, at state and federal levels, claims to accept the science on climate change.

    It should be making every effort to improve the country’s Paris goals.

    Instead, it’s doing the opposite …

    The only way to counteract Dutton’s right-wing pressure is to build a stronger movement for climate action and a stronger ecosocialist left.

    This is what Green Left aims to do.

    If you want to help defeat both the [shit lite Labor and full of shit] Liberal versions of climate denialism, …“

    “YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.”

    Hmmm, communist, theocrazy, social or direct or liberal or repressive (extreme disaster capitalism) democracy, fascism.

    Bring on more minor parties and independents!

  11. Scott – both major parties support nuclear subs. It was a condition of the original deal with the US.

    The problem for Labor in the nuclear debate is it’s a little bit pregnant, we want nuclear in subs (and the resultant nuclear industry) but we dont want reactors.

    The ANU Research does suggest the Govt isnt going to be able to make net zero with renewables alone. Gas before Nuclear does seem more sensible which is the Liberals problem.

  12. C@t:

    The polling shows that voters support subsidies for householders to install rooftop solar and renewables in general by a significant margin over subsidies for nuclear power.

  13. Peter Dutton is justifying his massive Nuclear Tax by saying his plants will ‘run for a hundred years’.

    The good people of Trawsfynydd were promised the same…

    Lying just off the A470 north of Bronaber and Dolgellau, Trawsfynydd is in many ways a typical Welsh village.

    There are less than 1,000 people living there; it has a grocery shop, a pub, a newsagent, a chemist, garage, petrol service station, and a host of agricultural merchants.

    But looming on its skyline is a sight familiar to many who have passed through in the past 50 years or so; the twin reactors of Trawsfynydd nuclear power station. Since construction of the plant began in July, 1959, before its opening in 1965, it has shaped the economy of the surrounding area, even since it was shut 30 years ago.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/trawsfynydd-nuclear-power-plant-wales-20391018

  14. Confessions @ #15 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 7:29 am

    C@t:

    The polling shows that voters support subsidies for householders to install rooftop solar and renewables in general by a significant margin over subsidies for nuclear power.

    But Littleproud has said that caps will be placed on rooftop solar. The Coalition are swinging too far to the Right. Do they really think this is a sensible strategy?

  15. The US election can’t come quick enough. Once the outcome is known and it is a dem clean sweep, some of the madness enveloping the world can settle a little bit. Sigh…..

  16. C@t:

    If they wanted to create chaos and uncertainty in the sector they have achieved their goal. Proof they aren’t fit for office.

    Anyways, Kean says it best: country before party.

    Some Liberals and Nationals smell a rat and are accusing Kean of disloyalty. Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has called Kean’s decision treachery. Kean says it is a natural step after his work as minister to get more renewables into the electricity grid.

    “I’ve always been a Liberal, I will always be a Liberal, but I am an Australian first and foremost,” he says.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-labor-convinced-a-former-liberal-treasurer-to-take-a-key-climate-job-20240624-p5jobw.html

  17. The thing with nuclear, the issue is not, should it be considered ( with a large group against), the issue is once considered does it makes sense. Risk, timing, cost. No it does not.

    The Liberals think they have an issue because they have a poll with a number that say it should be considered. Risk, timing and cost are against their thought bubble, and that is what is been brought up now.

  18. Will be very interesting later this week in the US.

    The Supreme Court has announced an extra Opinion Day -there are now 3 (all US Time)

    Wed 26th
    Thu 27th
    Fri 28th

    And in the evening of Thu 27th, the first debate on CNN between Biden and Trump.

    So Friday/Saturday our time will have a debate, and the criminal fate of one of the participants decided by a court he stacked.

  19. Matt Kean an example when lib state and fed become like labor they will select labor.Kean part of last state lib problem.Same with VIC nowhere near enough product separation in state politics so voters just vote labor.
    Dutton etc knows this will not die wondering.57-43 into 50-50.
    Labor federally is worried spends its time attacking not governing.Deflects from its failures on electricity,migration,education,housing,borders,inflation etc etc etc.

    When labor luvvies on here complain the libs are swinging too far to the right you know the libs are doing well.
    Young always lean a bit to socialism nothing new.

  20. Labor’s bleat that Dutton isn’t serious about Nuclear and intends to prolong coal and gas, sounds desperate.
    It could be acceptable to voters more concerned about Nuclear Power in Australia than the likelihood of ever being able to control the weather.

  21. On the face of it, Ted the Dill has based his estimate of capital cost amortisation for nuclear power on facilities operating for 100 years. This is arrant nonsense, with no responsible financing organisation willing to go beyond 50 years for a business case assumption. So, Tritium Ted’s amortisation costing is only a half of what it should be.

  22. Reason why federal lib/nats lost this debate on Dutton’s thought bubble ,
    in federal government they did not attempt to lift the ban on nuclear energy after sept 7th 2013, or take any form of nuclear energy policy to 2016,2019,2022 federal elections

  23. BK

    Extending the amortisation timeframe is a dodgy way to reduce the average cost. Why doesn’t Ted say the plants will run for 200 years?

    I suspect we won’t see any cost modelling from the Coalition this side of the election – so their assumptions won’t be able to be tested.

  24. Well, if the Afghanistan cricketers can seize their opportunity against Bangladesh today, they will be in the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup at the expense of Australia.

    They’re a likeable bunch of players: particularly their captain Rashid Khan, who is surely the most charismatic cricketer in the world ATM. On the other hand, the Australian cricket team – as it has typically done since the Chappell era – come across as arrogant and entitled (with a few exceptions: eg, the current captain Cummins, who seems to be a genuinely decent sort of guy). So there are grounds for feeling pleased about the prospect of a bunch of underdogs knocking out Australia from a contest we were expected to win. (Of course, Australia’s exit from the tournament is still no certainty: the cricket gods have long been known for smiling on Australia.)

    But, by rights, the Afghan team shouldn’t be permitted to play in international cricket. South Africa was excluded from most forms of international sport from the early 1970s through to the early 1990s on the basis of the oppressive and discriminatory Apartheid regime. But the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is surely at least as oppressive and discriminatory – against religious and ethnic minorities, and particularly against women in general – than that of South Africa pre-1992.

    There should be global protests against Afghanistan being permitted to play international cricket. But I guess everyone’s busy protesting against Israel. I guess that, like a lot of things, the choice of which nasty international regime people are going to get particularly upset with at a given time is strongly influenced by fashion and the influence of peers.

  25. MB

    The Australian selectors need to be sacked for sending a Dad’s Army to a T20 World Cup.

    Name Age Role
    Mitchell Marsh 32 All-rounder
    Matthew Wade 36 Wicketkeeper-batter
    David Warner 37 Batter
    Josh Inglis 29 Wicketkeeper-batter
    Tim David 28 Batter
    Travis Head 30 Batter
    Glenn Maxwell 35 All-rounder
    Marcus Stoinis 34 All-rounder
    Cameron Green 24 All-rounder
    Pat Cummins 30 Bowler
    Ashton Agar 30 Bowler
    Mitchell Starc 34 Bowler
    Adam Zampa 32 Bowler
    Nathan Ellis 29 Bowler
    Josh Hazlewood 33 Bowler

  26. ‘meher baba says:
    Tuesday, June 25, 2024 at 7:56 am

    Well, if the Afghanistan cricketers can seize their opportunity against Bangladesh today, they will be in the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup at the expense of Australia.

    They’re a likeable bunch of players: particularly their captain Rashid Khan, who is surely the most charismatic cricketer in the world ATM. On the other hand, the Australian cricket team – as it has typically done since the Chappell era – come across as arrogant and entitled (with a few exceptions: eg, the current captain Cummins, who seems to be a genuinely decent sort of guy). So there are grounds for feeling pleased about the prospect of a bunch of underdogs knocking out Australia from a contest we were expected to win. (Of course, Australia’s exit from the tournament is still no certainty: the cricket gods have long been known for smiling on Australia.)

    But, by rights, the Afghan team shouldn’t be permitted to play in international cricket. South Africa was excluded from most forms of international sport from the early 1970s through to the early 1990s on the basis of the oppressive and discriminatory Apartheid regime. But the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is surely at least as oppressive and discriminatory – against religious and ethnic minorities, and particularly against women in general – than that of South Africa pre-1992.

    There should be global protests against Afghanistan being permitted to play international cricket. But I guess everyone’s busy protesting against Israel. I guess that, like a lot of things, the choice of which nasty international regime people are going to get particularly upset with at a given time is strongly influenced by fashion and the influence of peers.’
    —————————
    Indeed. When considering anti-semitism the question is this: ‘Why choose this particular regime over all other bad regimes?’

  27. The crossbench has just compromised the vaping regs. It is in the Senate just now busy compromising taxing super accounts above $3 million.

  28. frednk
    I do hope someone is keep a Liberals and Nationals Nuclear Lies List. It keeps growing and growing and growing.

  29. Bowen would be wise to continually challenge Ted to face to face live debate on energy on all media platforms until the nuclear BS is extinguished.

    Put it on the line and win the argument.

  30. Problem yet another for labor is the polls tightening means Teals and independents vote more to the right as they notice the electoral shift.Less legislation gets through or it’s heavily compromised.Stupid Fed labor has only its self to blame.

    57-43 seems like it was a lifetime away.

  31. WB: ” Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured.”
    —————————————————————————-

    Not particularly surprising. But, as I have previously posted, I think there is an issue yet to be explored that could tip the balance a bit, and that’s

    ““Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” ”

    It’s hard to see how anyone other than the most ideologically-blinkered culture warriors could be opposed to this concept in principle. But is it genuinely an option? We’ve heard a lot in recent days about everything that is wrong with the nuclear approach. But what is a realistic date to expect that our energy system will use “100% renewables”? By which I mean (and I think most of the respondents to the Resolve survey meant), the date from which the only source of electric power will be renewables. I don’t mean zero net carbon emissions, which is a quite different concept.

    It seems to me that there is a widespread expectation that we will be able to reach 100% renewables through a significant breakthrough in storage technology which are yet to occur. An expectation that is arguably comparable to that which the proponents of nuclear have in relation to Small Modular Reactors. While I believe good energy policy should take account of potential future technological changes, I don’t think it should be dependent on breakthroughs that are yet to occur.

    I’m not pushing for the nuclear option, but I also think it is silly for a country with significant uranium deposits to remove it from the table entirely. As I have posted before, what is urgently needed now is for the government to use the best available expert advice to produce a very clear picture of how much non-renewable energy is going to be required over future decades and how it is going to be sourced. If the answer is truly “gas for a couple of decades and then nothing”, then that’s the best possible riposte to Dutton’s proposal. Not silly stuff about the Simpsons and three-eyed fish and whatever.

  32. The ones who keep on mentioning the simpsons and three eyed fish are federal lib/nats , lib/nats propaganda media units and Lib/nats voters

  33. Fuck the Greens and their anti prohibition stance.

    “Free range” human rights have been to be shown to be problematic time after time after time. Humans make poor choices, particularly when it comes to addictive substances which were never found in nature, at levels they were never supposed to be consumed at, and are purely developed for profit, and which lead to life long health issues.

    We had this one chance to give our best effort to get rid of nicotine from our society and the Greens decided that poor personal choices outweighed sound scientifically backed medical advice. The Greens will cost our health system for years to come because of this decision.

  34. From Crikey:

    The same party that legislated for offshore wind farms now wants to ban them
    SOPHIE VORRATH
    Imagine being a developer of offshore wind that has spent the better part of a decade working up a project that, this time next year, could be rendered obsolete if there’s a change of government.

    “Who said this? ‘An offshore electricity industry in Australia will further strengthen our economy … Offshore generation and transmission can deliver significant benefits to all Australians through a more secure and reliable electricity system, and create thousands of new jobs and business opportunities in regional Australia.’

    It was Angus Taylor in 2021 when he announced the successful passage through Parliament of the Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Bill.

    Funny that…

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/06/24/coalition-offshore-wind-power-change/?
    Edited

  35. We had this one chance to give our best effort to get rid of nicotine from our society and the Greens decided that poor personal choices outweighed sound scientifically backed medical advice. The Greens will cost our health system for years to come because of this decision.

    Hear, hear! I completely agree, and was flabbergasted when I heard they joined with the Nationals FFS to block the legislation from passing.

  36. sprocket_ “The Australian selectors need to be sacked for sending a Dad’s Army to a T20 World Cup.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Yep. Apart from David (who I think had earned his spot), every player on that list is a long-term proven performer at the international level. But, collectively, the list was too old, and this was demonstrated by some of the unusually mediocre fielding.

    Fraser-McGurk should definitely have been in the side, arguably at the expense of Warner. But Warner is an all-time star of T20 (matched only by Gayle, Dhoni and perhaps Pollard) and it would have been difficult to leave him out.

    And, let’s face it, we all complain about the Dad’s Army strategy, but the results over the past few years have generally been pretty good.

  37. There used to be a riposte [which has died out with that generation] when discussion got around to how caring and altruistic someone [not unusually a Labor pol] was, to wit:
    Yeah, he’s such a great bloke, he’d give away his a***hole and s**t through his ribs!
    That’s Chris Bowen, imo.

  38. Hey MI, I guess you feel the same way about alcohol and fast food right.

    Also, I thought perfect was the enemy of good… and yet the Greens are being blamed for implementing the workable approach, as opposed to the utopian approach that encourages a black-market (as always occurs every time this approach is taken).

    What a curious outcome 🙂

  39. The media was quick to jump Dan Andrews and label him Dictator Dan.

    What of Dutts proposal?

    Dutts claims he will over ride laws and compulsorily acquire properties in the face of opposition.

    These statements have a very familiar ring..

  40. MI: “We had this one chance to give our best effort to get rid of nicotine from our society and the Greens decided that poor personal choices outweighed sound scientifically backed medical advice. The Greens will cost our health system for years to come because of this decision.”
    —————————————————————————
    As with their enthusiasm for increasing the legality and accessiblity of marijuana, the Greens are just going along with the attitudes of the demographic groups that most strongly support them: in this case, the 18-25 years olds . My daughter, who is 18, says that she is one of the very few non-vapers among the people she knows. Hopefully the fad will pass over time, and then more can be done.

    BTW, while I don’t like cigarettes or vaping, nicotine is not necessarily an entirely harmful drug. I understand that nicotine patches and chewing gum are being increasingly used in treating long-term debiliative conditions like chronic fatigue syndrome and long COVID.

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