Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

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  1. MelbourneMammoth:
    In future years if and when the Indian immigrants in Melbourne are naturalised … they will form a conservative voting bloc that will entirely change the picture in western and northern Melbourne.
    More or less what Tony Barry has said on ABC 2022 Vic. Election coverage.
    Trump also pushes migration for Indian business/tech classes.
    Labor politics works for Clan based groups, not so much for Caste based groups.

  2. Of course, turning in the best performance in a debate only matters if it translates into votes — so we also asked poll respondents (both those who watched the debate and those who didn’t) which candidates they were considering voting for after the debate. And if there was any silver lining from the debate for Biden, this was it: The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate. (Note that this was not a straight horse-race poll; respondents could say they were considering voting for multiple candidates.)

    Trump’s support, meanwhile, barely budged, perhaps a reflection of the fact that, while Biden performed poorly on Thursday night, voters weren’t especially impressed with Trump’s performance either. The share of likely voters who said they were considering voting for Trump after the debate climbed from 43.5 percent to just 43.9 percent.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/

  4. C@tmomma,

    A vote that doesn’t put the Liberals ahead of Labor, or vice versa, under compulsory voting, is invalid. So your argument is invalid.
    And even though you don’t get a fine for turning up and casting a donkey vote, you’re still forced to deign to show up. On many occasions, I frankly didn’t have the energy.

    Such sanctimony and condescension from the Left knows no bounds.

  6. In happier news…

    The Supreme Court on Friday turned aside Stephen K. Bannon’s last bid to delay his July 1 deadline to report to prison, leaving the Donald Trump political strategist and right-wing podcaster facing a court order to turn himself in to a low-security federal prison while he appeals his contempt of Congress conviction.

    The high court’s rejection came in a one-sentence order: “The application for release pending appeal presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is denied.” The court did not state its reasons, but lower courts said Bannon failed to raise substantial legal questions over his two-count conviction for refusing to provide documents or testimony to a House committee probing the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/06/28/bannon-supreme-court-prison/

  7. MelbourneMammoth @ #2603 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 9:50 am

    C@tmomma,

    A vote that doesn’t put the Liberals ahead of Labor, or vice versa, under compulsory voting, is invalid. So your argument is invalid.
    And even though you don’t get a fine for turning up and casting a donkey vote, you’re still forced to deign to show up. On many occasions, I frankly didn’t have the energy.

    Such sanctimony and condescension from the Left knows no bounds.

    Thank you for stealing my words, Melbourne Mammoth (sanctimony and condescension) I’ve used them a lot lately, mainly about people from the Far Left, however, it’s always been a feature of the Right as well as they try to find a way to win, and boy don’t the Liberals need one at the moment. 😀

    Anyway, here’s 2 more for you and your ennui about voting: feckless and diffident 😐

  8. Morning all,
    Thanks William for the work you put in, hope you continue to get the support you need.
    If Biden does resign as many of the Democrats now want him to, who will be the most likely replacement? My money’s not on Harris, she seems to be becoming less and less of the breadwinner, money’s on someone from the right faction stepping up, maybe Manchin or someone who can appeal to the centrists a bit more.

  10. Trump is likely to pull out of South Korea and Japan, abandon the Middle East and dump AUKUS, depending on who his SoS is and whether he stands up to him.
    Blinky is doing a good job for Joe there, so based on that, keep Joe, and increase the medication!!

  11. If you replace Biden, you might as well let Trump start his presidency early. We should take a few leaves out of your average right wingers book on how to hold your nerve.

  12. Well I wasn’t exactly thinking of you when I used those words sanctimony and condescension. So I did not steal from you.

    Isn’t it so interesting that how women who accuse others of sanctimony and condescension usually turn out to be the most sanctimonious, patronising and condescending people of all.

    Interesting but not surprising.

    Thank you for stealing my almost-favourite word (and favourite loan word): ennui!

    Ennui sums up my life in a word.

  13. Sandman @ #2529 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 6:37 am

    So, P1, Lordbain and others where do you end up.

    We already have enough gas reserves to do what we need. Any new gas is for export, not domestic use. And we won’t make a penny from exporting it – only the fossil fuel companies will.

    The rest of your post is simply nonsense. But I have to comment on this bit …

    So Player One et al, before you come on PB with your Green virtue signaling and claiming the moral high ground on climate change and tip the bucket on a genuinely pro climate change government and anyone who supports them, have a look at your hypocrisy, your own enabling of climate change, you own conscious lifestyle choices that impact on climate change.

    Apparently you haven’t been here very long?

  14. Right wingers seem to be suggesting that voters of Indian heritage will one day restore the fortunes of the Victorian Liberals.

    One small problem. The Liberal Party is now owned by religious cookers, hardly an attraction to people who aren’t Christian.

  15. Found on the ‘Net:

    As far as Biden’s fiasco goes, I’d guess half his stammering had to do with the difficulty he had hearing and simultaneously repeating the words coming from his earpiece, even though he apparently practiced this for days.

    As good an explanation as any, imo.
    Let’s keep Joe and keep AUKUS, eh?

  16. If the western suburbs of Melbourne have all these aspirational migrants, their first aspiration is usually to move out of the western suburbs.

  17. Victoria, I acknowledge you may be correct and that I may be wrong about Biden needing to step down. My respect for you has developed over years and it does indeed make me reconsider my position.

    But I disagree my pov is drivel. I’ve been cautioning about Biden’s ability to campaign since last year. Last week I upped the concern after looking more closely at the cheapfakes that were not entirely off the mark and many other events he has attended.

    The DNC can change course and win in Nov if Biden pulls out and a good consensus candidate is quickly chosen. The DNC can say Biden earned the right to be our candidate due to a very successful tenure. but now he has pulled out we move forward. Biden can call back to his statements of only serving one term and explain that his recent experiences with his illness (cold) and leg have convinced him 4 more years is too much. Saying he achieved X,Y,Z in his term but it is now time for the USA to move on and away from the trump/Biden years, look to the next generation and vote for ____. God bless America.

    The problem is they probably need to chose someone who already has face recognition. Not ideal because there are some excellent candidates from non-blue states who don’t fit that criteria.

  18. One possibility not mentioned is Joe may be planning to dump Harris at the convention and Team Harris has struck back.
    Similar to a JFK/Dallas theory, we’ll know in the next few days if Harris was on the CNN Grassy Knoll?

  19. Mundo says stay with Biden.
    Convince Kamala Harris to spend more time with her family and make Garry Newsome VP
    Problem solved.

  21. Agreed P1, it’s a rather lame comment, ans seems to basically e a dragged out version of the then “you criticise society, but you exist in it. I am very smart” meme.

    Also seems to be ignoring a certain saturday post about how albo continues scomo policies… once again.

    Also why am I.not surprised that we have people hopping onto the copium train; man, I cannnnnotttt waaaaait for trump to win, the left to be blamed again, and the centrist swing voters that enables trumps election to just be ignored again. It’s almost like the democratic party’s elite would rather trump in power then to consider changing candidates (or God forbid, an actual left based candidate)

  22. I guess that Biden’s rallies are on script, requiring him to read the autocue (as was the case with the State of the Union). This is a low bar compared to the rapid thinking processes required in a debate. It is not surprising that he can still present well at rallies but does he still have the Parkinsonian Mask when reading?

    Yesterday while going to the podium he was holding his thumbs in abduction. This is an unnatural and unsustainable position but it potentially hides the classic Parkinsonian (pill rolling) tremor.

  24. The idea that Biden’s main problem is Kamala Harris and that replacing her (with a white man, obviously) will be the solution to his woes is just bizarre, and does not reflect well at all on those making that suggestion.

  26. Other than “She’s a shrill uppity bitch who makes my balls shrivel and I want her gone” wishcasting from elderly white Australian centrists, I don’t see any value in keeping Biden but dumping Harris for Newsom.

  27. And boy is it nice to see Victoria the Soothsayer turn up to tell us we’re all idiots because the stars have told here that Biden will win, no ifs or buts.

    The sheer arrogance required for one to genuinely think they are capable of predicting the future just boggles my mind.

  30. Asha

    I’m not predicting the future. I look at the whole picture, and all the moving parts.

    If you want to call it arrogance. Go ahead

  31. Victoria, you ain’t no Nostradamus, and you know it.

    If William would just let Nostradamus out of the tomb for a few months, it would save the community some unnecessary pain and grief.

  32. I don’t get why some of you think Gavin Newsom is a magic bullet. I think he’s alright and he might win if a nominee but the way some of you carry on about him, you’d think he’d be unstoppable.

    If you were to go for a Governor, I’d prefer someone from a state where a gubernatorial candidate actually has to win over independent voters to get elected, and has to work with a legislature where the party doesn’t have a permanent supermajority. Someone like Whitmer or Shapiro (although the latter might be too green at this point.)

  33. MelbourneMammoth @ #2631 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 10:26 am

    Victoria, you ain’t no Nostradamus, and you know it.

    If William would just let Nostradamus out of the tomb for a few months, it would save the community some unnecessary pain and grief.

    Ah, so you’re Nostradamus. That explains the constant concern-trolling and right wing talking points that flow when the mask slips.

  34. The debate was a debacle all round.
    Biden and Trump both did shit at the debate. It was the worst debate ever.

    Trump lied from beginning to end. Biden looked unwell and and pale, and out of it. He should have put on the orange clown make up and spewed bullshit from beginning to end

  35. OC, if he has Parkinson’s a lot of people are breaking oaths. Considering the progression of the disease, there is no way a Parkinson suffering 80yo should be running for a 4 year term as President (finishing one is different) and nobody should be encouraging it or going along for the ride.

    So I don’t believe it. And again, I don’t like the temptation to diagnose older people from a distance.

    Fwiw, if Biden resigns and Harris takes over, I believe the new VP chosen by the President would need to be confirmed by Congress. That could be messy.

  36. MelbourneMammoth, what ‘do as I say not as I do’ rubbish you have directed at Victoria. You have an appalling track record on here for calling election results, getting the results for by-elections like Aston and Dunkley very wrong. Pull your head in and critique the quality of your postings before launching into some one else.

  37. TK, I concur on that final point. Unless you could find a couple of them to cross the floor on the issue, I can see House Republicans blocking any VP nominee from Harris in that situation. No doubt saying things along the lines of “The election is only a couple of months away. Voters can choose who the next VP is”, “We have a constitutional line of succession, it’s not necessary to appoint someone in this role at this point for a few months.”, and if it is a Biden resignation scenario, “If you didn’t want a VP vacancy, Biden shouldn’t have resigned.”

    Worth noting in that scenario, the next in the line of succession would be Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson.

  38. I’m pretty sure Nostradamus (a.k.a. Sean Tisme, a.k.a. TrueBlueAussie, a.k.a. NixonDidNothingWrong) was reincarnated as Pied Piper a little while back.

    Anyone done a tally on just how many identities Sean has had here?

  39. FUBARsays:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 1:30 am
    Entropy says:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 1:11 am

    Exactly what nuclear power and nuclear weapons would do for us.
    =====================================================

    You don’t gain self sufficiency if you bankrupt the nation in doing so. Nuclear Power is just to expensive. To replace the current fossil fuel part of the grid by nuclear power instead of renewables would be price tag of 4-6 trillion at least. Three times more expensive than renewables, probably much more.

    Note: Much of the fossil fuel part of the grid needs replacing regardless in the next 10-20 years. As most of our coal power station are reaching the end of their life. Replacing them with new coal burners, besides being unethical, would also be more expensive that renewables by a factor of 2. While nuclear is more expensive by a fact of 3 or 4 at least.

  40. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 10:41 am
    One possibility not mentioned is Joe may be planning to dump Harris at the convention and Team Harris has struck back.
    Similar to a JFK/Dallas theory, we’ll know in the next few days if Harris was on the CNN Grassy Knoll?
    ============================================

    I don’t know about the “grassy knoll” but clearly “Badthinker” is off with the fairies again.

  41. For those who think Biden can get back on the horse.. need I remind you there’s now a sound clip of biden talking about going to a funeral about a woman killed by an immigrant, with trump cut in to say its your fault with biden looking old and confused. And that’s going to be played over and over and over.

  42. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 9:08 am
    Indian Britons vote more conservative than WHITE people according to the polling.

    They are the largest migrant group in Melbourne. Could we be seeing Melbourne turning Liberal in future years? Even a Liberal member in Lalor, Calwell, Scullin?
    ========================================================

    Very dubious use of statistics there. If you wanted to gauge whether people of Indian descent vote more conservative in the UK. You would need to do so by looking at elections when the conservative PM was not of Indian descent. As far as i know this data is showing ethnically Indian people are more likely to vote for a major party which has an ethnically Indian leader, which would be a surprise to no one.

  43. Trump lied from beginning to end.
    ————————
    It was impressive. Talk about jacked up. Compare the speed of his delivery to any other Trump to camera event or rally or interview. He was even outperforming Trump 2016.

    That level of clearly debunkable lying would normally be the end of a candidate.

  44. Biden’s VP is potentially the next President, Harris and her gang are especially protective of her status.
    Some likelihood that the aim is to replace Blinky, who is a friend to Australia, with a SoS who would cut us loose.
    Of course, that would be welcomed by Far Left sections of the ALP.

  47. That level of clearly debunkable lying would normally be the end of a candidate.
    Agree.
    Joe was set up.
    edit:
    Gaslighting @ 11:37, eh?
    Sad.

  48. Trump has spent the last few weeks on campaign trail talking about Hannibal Lecter being a cool guy and sharks and electrocution on a boat.

    Haven’t seen the media or rethugs telling him to step down.

    And he is a convicted felon to boot.

    Talk about living in earth 2

  50. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Ben Jennings

    Michael de Adder

    Stokoe

    Graeme Bandiera

    Matt

    Christian Adams

    Dave Brown

    Rowell

    Martyn Turner

    Alcarez

    Garthtoons

    Matt Davies

    Steve Lillie

    Rod Emmerson

    Andy Davey

    =============================
    Stolen from the Internet

    Tom Flood
    Grrr.

    Bette Midler

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