Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
Oh come on BadT. It was funny. I just knew there had to be a company like that called GrassyKnoll.
I’m going to revisit all the commentary on this thread after election, and have a good chuckle.
———————————
I’d be expecting a welldone to charcoal grilling of ‘I told you so’. And as it would be good news, I would take it on the chin.
So OC says Biden should stick to the teleprompter. Well he did this morning in North Carolina.
This 13 minute extract from today, makes you wonder WTF was the debate all about?
https://youtu.be/s5CVZHAjrW8?si=m_Ve-ck14u0HssWL
If I was a conspiracy theorist, I’d be trying to work out the next move in 5D chess
As I said last night. I’ll be the first in line to put on my clown makeup if I am wrong. And, if it means that Trump is defeated, I’ll do so with the greatest feeling of relief and joy.
I don’t “memory hole” my mistakes. I own them.
The Garth German cartoon (Garthtoons) is spot-on. Regardless of how badly the Great Debate went, Don Biden is the only choice. If he’s not up to it, he’ll be surrounded by adults who can keep things going, unlike Trump.
I definitely don’t think Biden should resign from the Presidency. It would be a mess for the very reasons Team Katich and Wat have laid out. Pulling out from the nomination, however – with the right candidate willing to run and ready to go – is a different matter, and may well be the right call at this point.
sprocket, considering how much Democrats were hyping the debate up prior, the fact that even directly after the debate, Biden had plenty of life in him again and reports coming out about how badly primed Biden seemed to have been for the thing, if I were into conspiracy theories, I’d almost believe this was an act of sabotage to try and sink him now, out of fear of him sinking later when it’s too late.
However, I’m not conspiratorially minded and my default go-to is always incompetence over malice or any other intentional behaviour.
There’s a rumour doing the rounds (see MeidasTouch) that if Trump wins the presidency he will ask the corrupt and unethical Thomas (76) and Alito (74) to retire, after promising them inducements, and replace them with MAGA judge Aileen Cannon (43) and an unnamed MAGA male judge of around the same age. Combined with MAGA judges Gorsuch (56), Kavanaugh (59) & Coney Barrett (52), this would result in the U.S. Supreme Court having a conservative majority bench for around 20 to 30 years. This accords with the Federalist Society’s imperative of having textualists and originalists to interpret Statutes and the U.S. Constitution. Scary stuff!
Victoria @ #2645 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 11:36 am
The debate was yesterday. The damage is done.
Is legendary West Coast pol Willie Brown advising the Harris forces?
Brown advised Harris against a Presidential run in 2019, suggesting she should aim for A/G instead.
San Francisco is also the power base of Newsom and Nancy Pelosi.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Brown_(politician)
Join the dots, Bludgers.
General question; what’s more important.
Beating trump
Biden having a shot at president round 2
Because bidens been weak against trump before the debate.
US supreme court rules unhoused people sleeping outside can be fined and jailed
Ruling strays from earlier decision, which said ban on outside sleep without giving shelter was ‘cruel and unusual punishment’
The US supreme court has ruled that cities in the US west can criminalize unhoused people sleeping outside even when they lack access to shelter.
The ruling is a victory for Grants Pass, Oregon, which in 2019 passed ordinances prohibiting sleeping and camping in its public parks and on its streets, banning unhoused people from “using a blanket, pillow, or cardboard box for protection from the elements”.
The city’s policies call for $295 fines and criminal prosecution punishable by up to 30 days in jail after multiple offenses.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/supreme-court-decision-unhoused-sleeping-outside
Watch the Meidas touch and President Joes speech in North Carolina to see that he will end up wiping the floor with Trump. Trump is a confidence man and a crook , Joe is a decent man and capable of seeing out the next four years. The choice is Joe or the guy who alienated just about every one on his team during his stint as President. To rework the old song – to know him is to loathe him.
The trick for the democrats is smoothly transitioning from Biden.
If they can’t do smooth or won’t do it , barring death Trump will be the next President.
If they can do smooth – trump looses.
They have about 6 weeks to arrange it.
Victoria:
Yes, Trump is insane. That’s why it’s so important that the Democrats beat him in November.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 8:41 am
UK Electoral Calculus poll-of-polls: Reform 3% down on last time, Conservatives up 1%, and Labour’s lead holds at 19%:
LAB: 465 (40.4%) | LIB 71 (11.7%) | CON: 65 (21.2%) | REF: 6 (14.9%) | GRN: 3 (5.8%) | SNP: 18 (3.0%) | PC: 3 (0.6%) | Other: 1 (2.3%)
—————————————————-
Indian Britons
1. Lab: 40%
2. Con: 32%
3. Green: 12%
===================================================
Some people have made the claim that people of Indian ethnicity in the UK are more likely to vote Conservative. Even if we ignore the fact that the current Tory leader is of Indian ethnicity and would be factor in this. Does the data actually show this. As the voting intention for Lab is 40% which is very close to the 40.4% seen for general population in the latest poll. While voting Con is 32% which is significantly higher than the 21.2% shown in the current poll. It is still lower than the 36.1% shown for the Con & Ref total. Somehow i suspect hardly any Indians vote Ref though. So it is highly likely Indian people in UK vote less conservatively than the general population. When the combined Tory & Ref vote is used to gauge this. Also worth noting is that they vote Green at 12% much higher than the general population at 5.8%. Suggesting their Labor & Green combined vote would be significantly higher than the Tory & Ref combined vote. Relative to this ratio in the general population.
Sorry for spamming this William, but I feel like this needs to be pointed out again
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/23/opinion/international-world/centrists-democracy.html
Tldr – on average centrist voters support authoritarian leaders, prefer controlled elections, and dislike institutions that get in the way of a strong leader. Look at the data on the US responders.
Now put aside your own views and answer the question… who looks and acts more like the strong man cliche
Princeplanet:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Here, here, or should that be hear, hear.
Wat
It would have to be the Hail Mary of all time – Joe Biden is a practicing Catholic after all.
But hear me out.
The horserace is in stasis, Trump is edging ahead in the battleground states. All the media has returned to fawning on every outrage he drops, cause it gets them clicks. The court cases allows him a pulpit to express his grievances, which resonate with many voters grievances.
Trump fellow travellers – Putin, Bibi Netanyahu – are causing global order instability leading to discord within the USA society.
So why not Hail Mary? It is high risk, but if you are confident enough in your ability – and the weakness and hubris of your opponent – it can work.
Think Muhammad Ali v George Foreman and rope-a-dope. Ali covers up for 10 rounds, rests on the side ropes, throws virtually no punches, lets Foreman batter him. Foreman eventually tires out. Ali wakes up with enormous energy and skill and dispatches his opponent by knockout.
So Biden agrees to lose round one – the first debate. Brought forward to June, the earliest one ever.
The next few rounds are defensive – but all the media attention has turned onto you. Will Biden quit? Who are the challengers? Can the Convention change the nominee? The headlines and click bait is Biden, Biden, Biden, Biden….
Maybe the US low information voters just want the colour and movement, the reality show.
But as George Foreman found out, it’s a 15 round fight.
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 12:04 pm
Is legendary West Coast pol Willie Brown advising the Harris forces?
Brown advised Harris against a Presidential run in 2019, suggesting she should aim for A/G instead.
San Francisco is also the power base of Newsom and Nancy Pelosi.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Brown_(politician)
Join the dots, Bludgers.
===================================================
I did, it completed the fairy ring.
Well said Mavis definitely hear hear
davesays:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 12:05 pm
US supreme court rules unhoused people sleeping outside can be fined and jailed
Called Vagrancy Laws in Australia, once those were repealed on spurious humanitarian grounds, our capital cities CBDs filled up with droogs and ne’er do wells sleeping on streets and in parks.
One attraction is Social Security doesn’t pay Rent Allowance to people living on the street and since Rent Allowance is only a fraction of Rent and Vagrancy Laws a thing of the past, they live on the street.
A new poll showing the disastrous Atlanta debate appears to have helped — or at least, not harmed — President Joe Biden’s chances, and the internet laughed as everyone rallied around the notion it seems no one knows anything anymore.
Amidst a sea of articles and opinion pieces questioning Biden’s decision to seek re-election — and even a certain prominent paper of record urging him to drop out — emerged a small beacon of hope for Democrats.
The non-partisan group Political Polls shared a new general election poll Friday afternoon with a curious finding: Biden led Trump 45 percent to 44 percent post-debate. The previous poll “was a tie,” the group noted on social media.
A bewildered internet couldn’t help but ask the tough question: “Did any of those people watch the debate?” The poll even caught the attention of MSNBC host Chris Hayes, who quipped: “shrug emoji no one knows anything….”
Sprocket
Think Muhammad Ali v George Foreman and rope-a-dope. Ali covers up for 10 rounds, rests on the side ropes, throws virtually no punches, lets Foreman batter him. Foreman eventually tires out. Ali wakes up with enormous energy and skill and dispatches his opponent by knockout.
That bout ended in the 8th round. Foreman later claimed his Trainer fed him a doped orange during the fight.
The rest of your post is laughable cope.
It takes more than just firmly and loudly claiming (from a prompter to the converted) that you ‘tell the truth’ and ‘know right from wrong’ to win the Presidency. Even against a dangerous clown like Trump.
Alright, I am becoming a broken record. Enough for now.
It’s OK TK: given what this means it makes sense to flog the dead horse
RBA forced into a humiliating rate-raising cycle
In a huge embarrassment for the central bank, its next move in interest rates should be higher, not lower.
Christopher JoyeColumnist
Updated Jun 28, 2024 – 12.32pm,
first published at 11.17am
The Reserve Bank of Australia is truly screwed. It has once again been humiliated by a predictably protracted, and now re-accelerating, inflation crisis that it refuses to tackle for fear of upsetting its political masters, who control negotiations over the future of monetary policy setting.
Recession a 50-50 chance if RBA raises rates: economists
Up to 100,000 Australians could lose their jobs in an inflation-driven recession likely to coincide with the federal election.
Oh Dear !
Here’s that pic of Joe giving the trees a thumbs up.
https://www.unz.com/article/falling-gently-away-the-g-7-in-italy/
Joe has always been an addled loon.
He’ll still be an addled loon when he steps down after his 2nd Term in Jan. 2029.
Bannon’s off to prison on July 1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrncfaSbzUs
Biden does perform well in stump speeches, yeah. How many people watch those? I’m going to imagine a whole lot less than the debate, and way less than the highlight reels that are all over the news and the internet.
For what it’s worth, I doubt Biden’s support will drop all that much as a result of this. But with Trump ahead in both national polling and the battleground states, and the advantage that the GOP have in the electoral college, that’s the problem. This debate was supposed to be the gamechanger, where Biden’s proved to an enormous audience of otherwise unengaged voters that the claims about his cognitive decline are bullshit. Instead, the dire performance just reinforced the public perception of him as a tired, confused old man. Yeah, Trump spent the whole debate spewing unhinged bullshit with little to no basis in reality. That’s what Trump does. One of Biden’s jobs this debate was to debunk and to mock his bullshit – like he did during the first 2020 debate – but instead he let most of it go through to the keeper, effectively legitimising Trump’s lies.
I realise there are still months to go and two more debates. Maybe Biden will turn up to those with fire in his belly and perform beyond expectations, and come November those of us panicking now will be able to have a laugh at how silly we were being. Christ, I hope that’s what happens. But what happens if Debate 2 and 3 end up being a repeat of yesterday? US presidential debates aren’t like the leaders debates we have here. They are a big deal over there.
Victoria you have nerves of steel for being unfazed about Trump’s chances of success on the current trajectory. I hope you are correct
Bad thinker
You need to give the people what they want
Bonza
We shall see in November I guess. lol!
Just clap your hands and believe, and Trump will not become President again. That’s how this works, right?
Aqualung @ #2659 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 12:01 pm
Do not get into a staring contest with this man.
https://youtu.be/SWgg20IqibM?si=Y0BnU24KF4As0JXg
The idea that Biden’s poor performance yesterday was done deliberately as part of some galaxy brained strategy ranks up there with “Albo deliberately made his gaffe on unemployment figures so he could own up to his mistake and look more trustworthy than Morrison” in the stupidity stakes.
https://www.newsweek.com/latino-voters-donald-trump-joe-biden-debate-election-1918795
Wait, this looks like good news… maybe I was wrong…
“Opens article”
“A group of undecided Latino voters said they would vote for President Joe Biden after watching his Thursday night debate with former President Donald Trump.”
…
Sample size of a round 12 people.
And yet this is newsworthy?
People really didnt learn from 2016 did they..
God we are fucked 🙂
On a side note, hope everyones having a relaxing Saturday!
I’m seeing that after all the handwringing on this site over the past 24:hours, the Biden debate disaster is now not so disastrous
Double lol
Lordbrain
A lot has happened since 2016.
Trump is a brain addled con man and traitor
That is the most embarrassing thing for the US. Hence why they will let him go overseas to never return, if he so chooses to take off.
Be that as it may Asha but the gaffe did not stop Albo from winning ( yet from memory caused much anguish on this site) . I believe that President Joe will win as well, what is the point of thinking otherwise?
Princeplanet
Good to have someone else on this blog who aligns with my thinking. Cheers
Australian elections are nothing, NOTHING, like the US election, and if your pinning your hopes on that then please share the copium with the rest of the class.
https://time.com/6993760/joe-biden-debate-disaster-democratic-panic/
This is Times
Inside Biden’s Debate Disaster and the Scramble to Quell Democratic Panic
If you want some fun, have a read and look at the cover.
In a country where your relying on swing voter centrists, and your already struggling in the polls, and studies show these centrists are looking for a strongman leader… then Bidens performance (a debate the Democrats pushed for btw to help dispel the old man Biden narrative), is the single worst thing that could have happened shy of Biden dying on stage.
Biden already has the converted; when people raise concerns now (or for years, but thats the curse of the leftist), they arnt saying “Trump looks better and I want to vote for him”, they are saying “we need to convert people to vote for us, and these people dont give a shit beyond optics for the most part”
pied pipersays:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 12:36 pm
RBA forced into a humiliating rate-raising cycle
In a huge embarrassment for the central bank, its next move in interest rates should be higher, not lower.
Christopher JoyeColumnist
Updated Jun 28, 2024 – 12.32pm,
first published at 11.17am
The Reserve Bank of Australia is truly screwed. It has once again been humiliated by a predictably protracted, and now re-accelerating, inflation crisis that it refuses to tackle for fear of upsetting its political masters, who control negotiations over the future of monetary policy setting.
Recession a 50-50 chance if RBA raises rates: economists
Up to 100,000 Australians could lose their jobs in an inflation-driven recession likely to coincide with the federal election.
Oh Dear !
====================================================
Wouldn’t you just love the prospect of that? Is there anything as disingenuous as a false sympathy for others peddled by a LNP supporting concern troll?
Yet it was under the previous LNP Government that the inflation genie escaped the bottle.
I have a theory that the original intention of CNN (very anti Trump) to have such an early debate was for Trump to dig his own grave BUT also to flush out a poor Joe Biden performance before it is too late to change. It would smack of panic if they did change but desperate time need desperate measures and there is a definite clock that has to be met well before the election.
I’ve said for some time now that Biden will win, and I stand by that even though he didn’t do well in the debate. Most of the vociferous criticism has come from the 4th Estate, whose views aren’t necessarily
in line with the voting public. Due to Joe’s performance, he might even attract some sympathy. Most know he’s a decent, honest man, unlike his adversary, a convicted felon who will know his fate on July 11.
princeplanet:
I mean, what any of us think about this isn’t going to make a difference one way or the other. The US election won’t be influenced by positive and negative thoughts from a bunch of Australians. This isn’t Dragonball Z, and Biden isn’t manifesting a spirit bomb.
We’re all just sharing our opinions on how this is likely to go. That’s the “point” of a discussion forum.
“Most know he’s a decent, honest man”
Many would have been re-evaluating that perception over the past 8 months
If Joe Biden does stand down as President before Jan 21 2025, Kamala Harris is automatically promoted – and gets to nominate the new VP.
Last time this happened in 1974, things did not got smoothy or quickly
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_United_States_vice_presidential_confirmation
Bonza:
Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 1:23 pm
“Most know he’s a decent, honest man”
[‘Many would have been re-evaluating that perception over the past 8 months’]
How so?
I imagine they might be alluding to Bidens behaviour and comments relating to Gaza… which have been repeated to death.
Or maybe Bidens support of a certain Supreme Justice nominee (and how badly that blew up in the subsequent decades).
Personally I would argue that any political official that voted to engage/support the war in Iraq should be tarred and feathered for the absolute clusterfuck that led too, and the consequences still coming from that decision… And Biden has long since tried to downplay his views on that.
Again, Biden > Trump, but yeh…