Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

Comments Page 55 of 68
1 … 54 55 56 … 68

  1. No worries Victoria, I felt the same when Albo made his supposedly campaign ending gaffe. We on the left side of politics panic too much and are too divided. We are the majority and the right,motivated only by self-interest knows it. Good on you for remaining strong and not letting the worriers change your convictions. I know that the fundamentals don’t change just because of a lacklustre debate where one guy was allowed to lie his guts off. President Joe faced the same misgivings last time yet managed to make the incumbent Trump taste the bitterness of loserdom. We both and Mavis,think he will again.

  3. Sprocket:
    link says Ford regretted swapping Nelson Rockefeller for Bob Dole on the 1976 ticket, but the ref[3] goes nowhere.
    Ford had 2 assassination attempts* while Rocky was VP, hard to believe he regretted replacing him?**
    *Sarah Jane Moore in 1975, who wasn’t released until Ford’s death in 2009, and, believe it or not, Manson Cultist Squeaky Fromme. Just a hunch, I don’t think they’re letting Squeaky go.
    ** Though perhaps not, as LBJ [reportedly] said years earlier:

    Jerry Ford is so dumb, he couldn’t fart and chew gum at the same time

  4. Squeaky got out in 2009- 35 years for an assassination attempt that could be said to be hald-arsed at best; the gun did not have a round in the chamber.

  5. Sandman, how the fuck are they hypocrites?

    We want the system to change, while acknowledging that we have benefitted from it.

    Thats… the opposite?

    If your claiming they dont put their money where their mouth is… then oh boy, how do you feel about the Labor party; but let me guess, they are just pragmatists, so its ok when their hypocrites on

    housing (Albo – I grew up in public housing, but supports market mechanisms and tax cuts to the wealthy for unaffordable housing)

    The environment (remind me, Gladys the Koala killer logic doesnt apply to the current Labor party how?)

    Climate change (again, global experts note we have more then enough fossil fuels to support the transition, but Australia just has to keep expanding exports because money).

    Man, maybe dont call others trolls when your logic is basically at the same level.

  6. The gaffe didn’t prevent Albo from winning the election, but I reckon it did stop the ALP from winning a bigger majority than they actually did and gave them a hard time in a few tight contests.

    Yeah, Biden can still win from here. This sort of thing is never set in stone, despite what some profoundly arrogant people might think. But come on. This is bad.

  7. Lordbain:

    My dear departed mother used to say: “Mavis, there’ll never be peace in the ME.” She was right. It’s an intractable mess. If you support one side, you’ll get the rest offside. I think Biden got it about right.

    As for Biden’s support for Thomas, he did not know how he would
    behave following his confirmation hearing. He probably thought that by backing a man of colour he was doing the right thing.

  9. Mavis, the same logic applies to Europe… until it didnt.

    I dont get this “ME is constant warfare” narrative, because compared to historic Europe, the only other region that even compares was China for bloody, almost nonstop warfare.

    And yet we somehow made Europe a more peaceful place. Somehow, China isnt going through another generational collapse with a deathtoll in the millions. So… what makes the ME different?

  11. US liberal social media is toxic AF right now. Lots of lashing out, wagon-circling, gatekeeping and accusations of racism. Yeah, yesterday total nothingburger though.

    Both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton’s Twitter accounts have tweeted that it’s important to stay with Biden. Don’t worry, I’m sure former presidents weigh in every time a few extremely online armchair strategists panic over non-issues.

  18. Both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton’s Twitter accounts have tweeted that it’s important to stay with Biden. Don’t worry, I’m sure former presidents weigh in every time a few extremely online armchair strategists panic over non-issues.

    Calming the horses until enough polling indicates what to do next.

  19. Badthinkers just exploring his or her relevance deprivation issues on PB by writing something, anything that sucks people in to giving him/her any attention. It rarely makes sense. Sad life when that’s all you’ve got.

  20. Wat Tyler:

    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 2:26 pm

    Mavis @ #2708 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 1:40 pm

    As for Biden’s support for Thomas, he did not know how he would
    behave following his confirmation hearing. He probably thought that by backing a man of colour he was doing the right thing.

    [‘He voted against Thomas’s nomination.’]

    Thanks. I normally do my homework but didn’t on this occasion. I watched a couple of minutes of the hearing on YouTube and thought Biden would have supported him.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZURHD5BU1o8&t=18s

  21. After getting in late last night I just had some time to listen to some of the Biden – Trump debate on CNN.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE

    Trump lied and bullied from start to finish and a lot of the answers spoken by Biden were far better.

    But it was Biden’s look and sound, not his words, that cost him. He looked and sounded old and frail, and I found it painful to watch. Trump obviously loved it. If the experts are right non verbal communication is the main message. This message was bad.

    I think this is already having real world consequences. If Biden looks and sounds like this then other bullies like Netanyahu will simply interpret it as weakness and ignore Biden.

    IMO Biden should complete his term but step down as nominee. There is a strong risk that Biden’s frailty will discourage borderline Democrat voters and give Trump the election. If Buttigieg can manage to swing Ohio he should be drafted in with Harris.

  23. Being in denial re Biden is like
    being in denial about fossil fuels.

    Think of the consequences if you’re wrong.

    Deal with the facts. Make a calculated decision.

    Just hoping for something, then being wrong on something of this magnitude isn’t very sensible.

  24. And I just noticed Oakeshott Country made a reference to the staring competition segments from Big Train – an almost forgotten and brief but great British sketch comedy show from the late 90s/early 00s. No notes, just appreciate it being referenced.

  25. William has, reasonably, called out some really silly opinions recently as being among the silliest he’s seen on this blog.

    But the idea that Biden’s performance was a masterful one in political subterfuge is, if not the single stupidest opinion I’ve ever seen regarding political outcomes on the history of this blog (or anywhere, frankly), at least in the Grand Final with Meguire Bob’s old proclamations that the Gillard Government being 20 points down in the opinion polls was proof positive that she would be re-elected.

  26. Biden needs to take the 2020 W and ride off into the sunset with a legacy of great achievement in reaching the office of POTUS and defeating a truly crooked President.

    He doesn’t need to ‘go back for his hat’.

  27. Badthinker
    The Project urges government to explicitly reject abortion as health care
    The Project seeks to infuse the government with elements of Christianity.
    It proposes criminalizing pornography,
    removing legal protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity,
    and terminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, as well as affirmative action.

    Not seeing anything there the Centrist in the street would find objectionable?
    ——————————————-

    Reactionaries can be funny because reactionaries are quick to moan about migrants and disabled people sitting on welfare but then moan about policies to get them into employment because that is the point of DEI.

    The reactionaries just can’t make up their minds about what they want.

  28. ”
    shellbellsays:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 9:28 am
    Forcing folk to choose a President who is overwhelmingly unlikely to be fit for office during his term ain’t good.
    ”

    As Tony Abbott once put it succinctly “Shit happens” and he is a beneficiary of that concept

  30. Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
    ·
    6h
    #New general Election Poll – Post debate

    Biden 45% (+1)
    Trump 44%

    Last poll was a tie

    Morning Consult – 2000 RV – 6/28

  31. Maguire Bob’s greatest hit was the claim that Sussex St insiders had told him that Labor would win the 2013 Northern Tablelands By-election. In the end the Labor candidate got 9% of the vote and the Nats 63%
    Of contemporary relevance because Adam Marshall, the Nat who won that day, recently retired and at last Saturday’s by-election Labor did not run and the Nat got 68%.
    I always thought that some of Bob’s later predictions were based on a chronic dysfunction of the liver.

  33. Oakeshott Country @ #2732 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 4:02 pm

    Maguire Bob’s greatest hit was the claim that Sussex St insiders had told him that Labor would win the 2013 Northern Tablelands By-election. In the end the Labor candidate got 9% of the vote and the Nats 63%
    Of contemporary relevance because Adam Marshall, the Nat who won that day, recently retired and at last Saturday’s by-election Labor did not run and the Nat got 68%.
    I always thought that some of Bob’s predictions were based on a chronic dysfunction of the liver.

    Short-chain hydrocarbon induced dysfunction?

  34. Rex Douglas at 2:45 pm
    …
    Biden makes the domestic decisions, the SoS runs Foreign Policy.
    SoS Blinky has done a good job vis a vis Australia, and should get another 4 years.
    That would depend on Joe being the candidate and winning, which is a risk worth taking, imo.
    The problem with Trump last time was that he wanted to be SoS while ignoring the domestic situation.
    The risk is he might get away with it if elected again, which will likely be a disaster for Australia.
    John Howard expressed concern when Trump first announced in 2016 and was proven right.

  36. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says it was not a government decision to award Ben Roberts-Smith a coronation medal from King Charles.

    The ex-SAS soldier was welcomed into Western Australia’s Government House this week to receive the special honour – which is given to all Victoria Cross recipients.

    Last year, Roberts-Smith, a recipient of the Victoria Cross, failed in a defamation case against three newspapers that he alleged defamed him as a war criminal.

    Justice Anthony Besanko found that the newspapers successfully proved – to the civil standard of balance of probabilities – that Roberts-Smith was complicit in the murder of four unarmed civilians while serving in the SAS in Afghanistan, as well as bullying and threatening colleagues, and intimidating a woman with whom he was having an affair.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/29/decision-to-award-ben-roberts-smith-extra-medal-made-by-king-charles-not-australia-albanese-says

    He should be asked to hand back his VC, not receive further commendations.

    Seriously, didn’t the palace do any background briefing before this? Just farcical.

  37. And now I find myself respecting melania trump a bit ( not attending the debate, letting her hubby stand or fall by himself. Vs Jill Biden. The pitiful body language and praise she offered …

    It seems that she’s as stuck on the First Lady job as her hubby is the presidency. Madness.

  40. Rhw
    If he was who I think he was, much of his later writing seemed to be consequent on korsakoffian confabulation.

  41. Can’t have the pesky plebs protesting about another medal for BR-S so keep it hush hush until a few days after… 😉

  46. Rex Douglas @ #2744 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 4:21 pm

    The King’s private secretary and the WA Governor have questions to answer.

    I assume that if the Palace says “Jump!” the Governor has to respond with “how high?” but still…

    I’m sorry, I’m not on top of the details here, was the PM or the WA Premier consulted on this?

Comments Page 55 of 68
1 … 54 55 56 … 68

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *