Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

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  1. Technically speaking, Ben Roberts-Smith is not a recipient of the Victoria Cross, he’s a recipient of the Victoria Cross For Australia which is an identical medal awarded under a different patent established in 1991.

    Charlie No. 3 should probably have taken that into account.

  2. A spokesman for Governor-General David Hurley, a former chief of the Defence Force, said in a statement that he had no role in determining recipients of the medal.

    A second well-placed source, speaking anonymously to discuss confidential information, said the decision to award the medal was taken in the United Kingdom.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/wa-governor-hosts-ben-roberts-smith-to-receive-medal-from-the-king-20240628-p5jpj7.html

    A terrible decision by the palace.

  4. And to anyone who says “Oh, the King had no idea. He couldn’t have known. etc.”: He has a big retinue of administrative staff and advisors, all of whom paid really well, whose job it is to make sure all this information is known and such decisions by the Crown to be as informed as possible.

  5. Hi de ho! Back from an exhausting day looking through house after house after house. Now the waiting game begins to see if we will be accepted for any that we have applied for. It’s down to us…and the 30 other applicants for one place, so we were told. 😀

  6. Hey C@tmomma, I know I annoy you a lot at times and it doesn’t mean much but you are in my thoughts and I hope you find a place soon enough. I know how stressful it can be. I don’t really do the prayer or power positive thought stuff but, if I did, that prayer/positivity would be directed at you right now.

  8. Wat Tyler @ #2754 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 5:08 pm

    And to anyone who says “Oh, the King had no idea. He couldn’t have known. etc.”: He has a big retinue of administrative staff and advisors, all of whom paid really well, whose job it is to make sure all this information is known and such decisions by the Crown to be as informed as possible.

    Of course the real issue is that we should never be in a position where we have decisions imposed up on us by a head of state who lives on the other side of the world.

    #RepublicNow

  9. Chinese scientists have developed a robot with a lab-grown artificial brain that can be taught to perform various tasks.
    The brain-on-chip technology developed by researchers at Tianjin University and the Southern University of Science and Technology combines a brain organoid – a tissue derived from human stem cells – with a neural interface chip to power the robot and teach it to avoid obstacles and grip objects.
    The technology is an emerging branch of brain-computer interfaces (BCI), which aims to combine the brain’s electrical signals with external computing power and which China has made a priority.
    It is “the world’s first open-source brain-on-chip intelligent complex information interaction system” and could lead to the development of brain-like computing, according to Tianjin University.

    “[This] is a technology that uses an in-vitro cultured ‘brain’ – such as brain organoids – coupled with an electrode chip to form a brain-on-chip,” which encodes and decodes stimulation feedback, Ming Dong, vice-president of Tianjin University, told state-owned Science and Technology Daily on Tuesday.
    BCI technology has gained widespread attention due to the Elon Musk-backed Neuralink, an implantable interface designed to let patients control devices with only their thoughts.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3268304/chinese-scientists-create-robot-brain-made-human-stem-cells

  13. Wat:

    And to anyone who says “Oh, the King had no idea. He couldn’t have known. etc.”: He has a big retinue of administrative staff and advisors, all of whom paid really well, whose job it is to make sure all this information is known and such decisions by the Crown to be as informed as possible.

    Yep, exactly this. The most basic of due diligence would have revealed just how inappropriate this was.

    Confessions:

    Of course the real issue is that we should never be in a position where we have decisions imposed up on us by a head of state who lives on the other side of the world.

    This too.

  15. Fingers crossed c@t gets the nod on a property soon, it must be a stressful time especially somewhere like Sydney.Hopefully this stress will be over soon.

  17. Concerning Roberts-Smith’s latest medal, it should be borne in mind that in 1920 George V concluded, and the government of the day agreed, that VC recipients should not forfeit their award for criminal behaviour subsequent to the act(s) of valour that gave rise to it.

    Moreover, Roberts-Smith has not been charged with a crime. An appeal against Besanko, J’s findings, which is a civil matter (defamation), is still pending. While it’s not a good look, the King, the WA Governor, and presumably the Premier are acting in good faith.

    Although Australia is not required to follow British precedent, now that the VC is not an imperial honour, I can envisage a battle royale ensuing if the matter was to be challenged in court. What say you, Shellbell?

    https://insidestory.org.au/double-edged-sword/

  18. Apparently today is British Armed Forces Day, which is what has prompted the palace to acknowledge veterans across the monarchy, including the much maligned and war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith.
    https://www.armedforcesday.org.uk/

    I’m all for acknowledging those who have served, but some simple Google fact checking wouldn’t have gone astray when it comes to war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith.

  19. Confessions @ #2758 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 5:18 pm

    Of course the real issue is that we should never be in a position where we have decisions imposed up on us by a head of state who lives on the other side of the world.

    #RepublicNow

    Definitely!
    And the US circus, and inability to change their leader when said leader proves unfit for purpose shows that the public electing an individual as head of state is fraught with hazards.
    The attachment to a head of state on the other side of the planet doing ridiculous things like awarding medals is equally dumb.

    Rename the GG as President, keep everything else pretty much the same minus the royal attachment seems only sensible for a nation that so far has refused to grow up!
    #RepublicNowCarefully

  20. Bill Shorten a disaster as Minister of the NDIS.

    Soon cost taxpayers more than the Age pension total.

    Looking for accom ,one million people brought in by labor there’s your problem.

    30 applicants that’s low as in Perth it’s usually over 100.

    Another fed labor stuff up.

  22. And the US circus, and inability to change their leader when said leader proves unfit for purpose shows that the public electing an individual as head of state is fraught with hazards.

    Yeah, I’ve never been an advocate for a directly elected president.

  23. Pied piper: The Coalition were in Government for 9 years and the spending increased 20% a year on NDIS. Shorten now trying to cut spending.

  24. ‘Fess, Wat Tyler, Princeplanet and laughtong,

    Big hugs to you all!

    I know I can be annoying and opinionated.

    But I’m annoying and opinionated! 😆

    I’m also a nice person in reality, or so people who I haven’t paid have said from time to time. 😉

  25. [‘I’m all for acknowledging those who have served, but some simple Google fact checking wouldn’t have gone astray when it comes to war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith.’]

    That’s highly defamatory. There is no finding that Roberts-Smith has committed a crime. You should delete it!

  26. Holdenhillbilly:
    Had the Coalition had even gone anywhere near the NDIS during their 8 years in Office, there woulda been a scare campaign that put MediScare in the shade.
    Shorten built this disaster, he can fairly take all the responsibility.

  27. Damo @ #2737 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 4:20 pm

    And now I find myself respecting melania trump a bit ( not attending the debate, letting her hubby stand or fall by himself. Vs Jill Biden. The pitiful body language and praise she offered …

    It seems that she’s as stuck on the First Lady job as her hubby is the presidency. Madness.

    And she’s provided the republicans with a nice intro Joe looking like a stunned mullet with her “he answered all the questions” stupidity.

  28. Confessions @ #2772 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 5:15 pm

    And the US circus, and inability to change their leader when said leader proves unfit for purpose shows that the public electing an individual as head of state is fraught with hazards.

    Yeah, I’ve never been an advocate for a directly elected president.

    I am a bit more open to a directly elected President (simply because that seems to be what people want) but it would have to be a very minimalist role, like in the Irish model, and definitely nothing like the POTUS or the French President. That said, if it’s just relabelling the GG as President and keeping things as functionally close to things as is, I am more than fine with that end of the spectrum too.

  29. That said, if it’s just relabelling the GG as President and keeping things as functionally close to things as is, I am more than fine with that end of the spectrum too.

    I would definitely support that model too.

  30. Badthinker @ #2776 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 5:56 pm

    Holdenhillbilly:
    Had the Coalition had even gone anywhere near the NDIS during their 8 years in Office, there woulda been a scare campaign that put MediScare in the shade.
    Shorten built this disaster, he can fairly take all the responsibility.

    Absolute crap. Labor gave birth to the NDIS. The Coalition bastardised it. Your pathetic attempt to lay the blame for what the NDIS became under the Coalition. Will. Not. Work. We see you. We know what you’re all about.

  31. Mavis at 4:51 pm:

    I note that you’re not one for overstatement.

    ——————-

    No, I am deadly serious. The idea that Biden’s performance was a deliberate political strategy is pretty much as stupid a statement that I can ever recall being said on this blog, or anywhere in terms of political discourse. Anybody who believes that should have a long think about their relationship with reality.

  33. Re the medal for Ben Roberts-Smith. I’m not going to wade into the debate over the appropriateness of the award. The guy has not been convicted of anything in any sort of a court and, like it or not, I strongly believe that this must be the standard for stripping people of their awards.

    But what I don’t understand was why it was a priority for King Charles to give additional awards to people who already have one of the most prestigious ones going.

    It reminds me of a certain knighthood that the King’s late father was awarded by an antipodean country a few years ago.

  37. Wat Tyler

    “if it’s just relabelling the GG as President and keeping things as functionally close to things as is, I am more than fine with that end of the spectrum too.”
    ————
    There is no necessity to have a head of state called a “President”. The Governor General and State Governors could remain with appropriate changes to their role and chosen / appointed in whatever way is deemed appropriate.

    After all, the American colonies kept their “Governors” in a non-monarchical system.

  38. Confessions says:
    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 6:01 pm

    We agree on something!!

    Why the Republicans refuse to put this model up is beyond me.

    It was given a name at some stage but it is basically the do everything the same but remove the Monarch.

  40. meher:

    The lack of fact checking by the palace is an issue in regards to BRS. I’m sure if someone had bothered to check they’d have rethought their award for him.

  41. Stinker:

    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 6:02 pm

    Mavis at 4:51 pm:

    I note that you’re not one for overstatement.

    ——————-

    [‘No, I am deadly serious. The idea that Biden’s performance was a deliberate political strategy is pretty much as stupid a statement that I can ever recall being said on this blog, or anywhere in terms of political discourse. Anybody who believes that should have a long think about their relationship with reality.’]

    Who posited that interpretation? Biden had a bad day, for sure. But he bounced back in North Carolina. Those who are suffering from cognitive deterioration have good & bad days – I should know.

  42. I have a friend whose business has tried to build NDIS housing. It has been a complete nightmare. He has said once they complete the current houses, they are never doing NDIS work ever again. Dealing with the Department is completely disfunctional.

  43. Rikali, I also agree with that. I honestly don’t care about the title either way.

    Or, we could go the Mediterranean route and call the role “Doge”, or go Roman and call it “Consul” and have two at a time…

  44. Rikali @ #2787 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 6:09 pm

    Wat Tyler

    “if it’s just relabelling the GG as President and keeping things as functionally close to things as is, I am more than fine with that end of the spectrum too.”
    ————
    There is no necessity to have a head of state called a “President”. The Governor General and State Governors could remain with appropriate changes to their role and chosen / appointed in whatever way is deemed appropriate.

    After all, the American colonies kept their “Governors” in a non-monarchical system.

    Good point!
    President would give other countries the wrong impression as to the role of our head of state.
    Sort of how they are baffled that we have a “Liberal” party that is not liberal by their definition.

  45. I think it would be best if I took a break from this place. I’m not proud about how I acted last night.

    Happy to comment about the UK and French elections next week, but from there I probably won’t comment much.

    There’s some black dog things I need to sort out in my own life first.

  46. Mavis, I’m referring to sprocket’s post from earlier today, which I will quote in full because it is profoundly silly:

    “It would have to be the Hail Mary of all time – Joe Biden is a practicing Catholic after all.

    But hear me out.

    The horserace is in stasis, Trump is edging ahead in the battleground states. All the media has returned to fawning on every outrage he drops, cause it gets them clicks. The court cases allows him a pulpit to express his grievances, which resonate with many voters grievances.

    Trump fellow travellers – Putin, Bibi Netanyahu – are causing global order instability leading to discord within the USA society.

    So why not Hail Mary? It is high risk, but if you are confident enough in your ability – and the weakness and hubris of your opponent – it can work.

    Think Muhammad Ali v George Foreman and rope-a-dope. Ali covers up for 10 rounds, rests on the side ropes, throws virtually no punches, lets Foreman batter him. Foreman eventually tires out. Ali wakes up with enormous energy and skill and dispatches his opponent by knockout.

    So Biden agrees to lose round one – the first debate. Brought forward to June, the earliest one ever.

    The next few rounds are defensive – but all the media attention has turned onto you. Will Biden quit? Who are the challengers? Can the Convention change the nominee? The headlines and click bait is Biden, Biden, Biden, Biden….

    Maybe the US low information voters just want the colour and movement, the reality show.

    But as George Foreman found out, it’s a 15 round fight.”

    Of course Biden did well today – because he didn’t have to think on his feet. Anyone can read off an auto prompt. But he cognitively cannot handle much that requires thinking on his feet. It’s a genuinely sad state of affairs.

  47. The GG and State G’s most important role is as the apolitical Constitutional circuit breaker. It is one of the great strengths of our system of government. It stops the stupidity we see in the US with government shutdowns.

  49. FUBAR:

    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 6:15 pm

    [‘I have a friend whose business has tried to build NDIS housing.’]

    You seem to have a friend to support your position routinely. Perhaps it’s nigh-time to take sole responsibility for your posts.

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