Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

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  1. Could this be the beginning of the end of Big Government in the U.S.?

    “Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, concluded: “The Administrative Procedure Act requires courts to exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority, and courts may not defer to an agency interpretation of the law simply because a statute is ambiguous; Chevron is overruled.””

    https://pjmedia.com/paula-bolyard/2024/06/28/breaking-supreme-court-rules-on-chevron-doctrine-n4930001

  2. Asha:

    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 8:53 pm

    Lars:

    [‘And perhaps un clubabble ?

    Oh, I don’t know, I suspect there’s more than a few people here who would like to club you. ‘]

    I mean to say, really, cobber! I find that offensive.

  3. Badthinker at 9:01 pm

    Could this be the beginning of the end of Big Government in the U.S.?

    ——————

    Well, the Chevron doctrine has been thoroughly rejected by the Australian courts well before today, and I’m not sure that’s had much of an impact on the size of government in Australia.

  4. Asha @ #2839 Saturday, June 29th, 2024 – 8:24 pm

    Howard is a PoS (politically, I mean, I’m sure he’s a decent enough guy in his private life) who can be justifiably blamed for many of this country’s present ills, but I don’t think the domestic violence rate is one of them.

    Correlation is not causation. Never said he directly caused it but the butterfly effect, or the, ‘from little things big things grow’ effect, in my mind opened the Pandora’s box of what we have today.

  7. Asha:

    Saturday, June 29, 2024 at 9:10 pm

    [‘Good lord, Mavis, it was a joke.’]

    I’m not sure you should make that type of violent joke. I’m also not sure if Lars took it that way. But that’s a matter for his interpretation.

  8. It’s not nothing:

    Physical and/or sexual family and domestic violence
    Results from the 2021–22 PSS show that an estimated 3.8 million Australian adults (20% of the population) reported experiencing physical and/or sexual family and domestic violence since the age of 15. It is estimated that of all Australian adults:

    11.3% (2.2 million) had experienced violence from a partner (current or previous cohabiting)
    5.9% (1.1 million) had experienced violence from a boyfriend, girlfriend or date
    7.0% (1.4 million) had experienced violence from another family member (ABS 2023c).

    Partner emotional abuse and economic abuse
    According to the 2021–22 PSS, an estimated 3.6 million Australian adults (19% of population) had experienced emotional abuse at least once by a partner since the age of 15. The proportion of women (23% or 2.3 million) who had experienced emotional abuse was higher than men (14% or 1.3 million). Estimates of partner emotional abuse in the 12 months before the survey have changed over time:

    the proportion of women who experienced partner emotional abuse was stable between 2012 and 2016, but decreased from 4.8% in 2016 to 3.9% in 2021–22
    the proportion of men who experienced partner emotional abuse increased from 2.8% in 2012 to 4.2% in 2016 before decreasing to 2.5% in 2021–22 (ABS 2023c).
    It was also estimated that 2.4 million Australian adults (12% of the population) had experienced economic abuse by a partner since the age of 15, with the proportion of women (16%) who had experienced this type of abuse around double the proportion of men (7.8%) (ABS 2023c).

    Sexual violence
    The 2021–22 PSS estimated 2.8 million Australians (14% of the population) experienced sexual violence (occurrence, attempt and/or threat of sexual assault) since the age of 15. It is estimated that of all Australian adults:

    13% (2.5 million) had experienced sexual violence by a male
    1.8% (353,000) had experienced sexual violence by a female (ABS 2023c).
    Of all women:

    11% (1.1 million) experienced at least one incident of sexual violence by a male intimate partner since the age of 15
    2.1% (203,000) experienced at least one incident of sexual violence by a male family member since the age of 15
    11% (1.1 million) experienced at least one incident of sexual violence by another known male since the age of 15
    6.1% (605,000) experienced at least one incident of sexual violence by a male stranger since the age of 15 (ABS 2023c).
    In the 12 months before the 2021–22 PSS, it is estimated that 1.9% of women experienced sexual violence. This does not represent a change from 2016 (ABS 2023c).

    Other forms of violence and abuse
    Violence exists on a spectrum of behaviours. The same social and cultural attitudes underpinning family, domestic and sexual violence are at the root of other behaviours such as stalking. Technology can facilitate abuse and has become an important consideration in these types of violence.

    Stalking is classified as unwanted behaviours (such as following or watching in person or electronically) that occur more than once and cause fear or distress and is considered a crime in every state and territory of Australia (ABS 2023b). Based on the 2021–22 PSS, 1 in 5 (20% or 2.0 million) women and around 1 in 15 (6.8% or 653,000) men had experienced stalking since the age of 15 (ABS 2023c).

    Preliminary findings from the 2022 Australian eSafety Commissioner’s adult online safety survey of around 4,700 Australians aged 18–65 years, indicate that:

    75% of those surveyed had a negative online experience in the 12 months prior to the survey, an increase from 58% in 2019
    18% of those surveyed said their location had been tracked electronically without consent, an increase from 11% in 2019
    16% of those surveyed said they received online threats of real-life harm or abuse, an increase from 9% (Office of the eSafety Commissioner 2023).

    https://www.aihw.gov.au/family-domestic-and-sexual-violence/resources/fdsv-summary

  11. An investigation has been launched into why it took police nearly an hour to acknowledge a triple-zero call to a house where a woman lay dying. The woman’s partner has since been charged with murder.

    A call was made to triple zero shortly after 1.30am on Saturday after neighbours reportedly heard screaming from a residential home in Casino in the Northern Rivers.

    It’s the second domestic violence-related death in the state in two days after a woman was allegedly murdered by her housemate at Russell Lea in Sydney’s inner west on Thursday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-take-nearly-an-hour-to-acknowledge-triple-zero-call-as-woman-lays-dying-20240629-p5jprt.html

    Women just want to be loved not murdered.

  16. On the question of DV, it is worth looking at the data inthe link Antemeridian posted, especially Figure 5.
    https://www.aihw.gov.au/family-domestic-and-sexual-violence/responses-and-outcomes/domestic-homicide

    When you do, you see that, whilst there has been a large drop in the death rate since 1990, it has not been uniform. There are no doubt many causes.

    One cause that is separate to politics and policy is the population demographics. Most violent crimes are committed by young men aged late teen to 40. As the population ages, the violent death rate usually drops. Gun laws being toughened under Howard also contributed to a drop in all homicide rates.

    That being said, whilst correlation does not imply causation, the most noticeable changes in the DV death rate are as follows:
    – a large drop in female DV death rate in the years 1990 – 1996 (Hawke/Keating)
    – a large spike up in the years 2001 – 2004 (Howard)
    – a large drop in the period 2006 – 2011 (Rudd/Gillard)
    – a gradual steady decline in the period 2013 – 2021 (Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison)

    This doesn’t mean Howard caused it all, but his impact on the public mood might have contributed.

  17. I hate Howard and wish he’d die of some disgusting skin disease, but fair’s fair, his gun control laws have saved hundreds if not thousands of lives. And they were introduced against the wishes of the Nationals, so took a display of steel not normally associated with Liberal PMs.

  18. Anyway, on to important things,

    Like music.

    Every couple of weeks I get together with friends via Microsoft Teams and we take turns choosing music videos to watch. And recently I have been running out of new videos when it’s my turn. I’ve tried turning to PB for inspiration, but you have let me down.

    But I’m prepared to give you another chance. Can someone please give me some recommendations for impressive music?

    Something like.. I dunno… maybe this…?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDxd4LG3_0I

    Or maybe something completely different. All suggestions gratefully accepted. Or at least looked at once before being dismissed.

  21. Aqualung,

    Thanks. But, umm… that wasn’t quite what I was looking for.

    But I really do appreciate you taking the time to respond.

    Edit: I meant the first one. I was a bit slow so missed the Mike Oldfield ones. We’re definitely on the same page with those.

  24. My problem is I don’t mind different stuff but the algorithm knows I’m old.
    I enjoyed both of yours. Cheers

  31. Nobody posting this morning?

    Perhaps it’s too cold: conditions in southern Tasmania this am are positively polar.

  32. It’s quite warm in Sydney, relatively. 17C overnight. I had to throw the doona off! So I slept in with the steady thrum of the rain providing a calming backdrop. Also, I had a big day yesterday and I was exhausted!

  33. Kirsdarke, I am sorry you are feeling so distressed

    You’ve long been one of the most informative and polite posters on PB. When you’ve finished your Wikipedia editing, please come back.

  34. c@t: I’ve only caught up with your news this morning. How exciting! I hope it all comes through ok.

    Is it adjacent to the home of another prominent shock jock?

  36. PS. It won’t get anywhere 17 degrees here for another 4-5 months. Maximum of 7 forecast for today after a minimum of 5 overnight. And buckets of rain. Noice.

  37. Ante Meridian,
    I can provide you all the music for your friends’ listening pleasure that you need! I just haven’t done it recently because what I choose tends not to be popular with the classical and classic music crowd here. I still listen to contemporary music, so if you ever want any of that as well, I’m your woman!

    To start with, here’s the song that won the Dance Music Grammy this year, from our very own Kylie Minogue 🙂

    https://youtu.be/p6Cnazi_Fi0?si=_d72P_8agfHFJuun

  38. 4 days to go & New polling with @ObserverUK Fieldwork: 26 – 28 June. Changes from 19 – 21 June.
    Labour continue to lead by 20
    · Labour 40% (n/c)
    · Conservatives 20% (n/c)
    · Reform 17% (+1)
    · Lib Dems 13% (n/c)
    · Greens 6% (-3)
    · SNP 3% (n/c)

  39. meher baba @ #2884 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 7:13 am

    c@t: I’ve only caught up with your news this morning. How exciting! I hope it all comes through ok.

    Is it adjacent to the home of another prominent shock jock?

    Hi meher baba,
    Not a sure thing yet. I’m trying to work out whether it was a furnished house or not before I agree to take it. I’ve asked the question but I haven’t received a reply yet. Probably because it’s Sunday. 🙂

    I’ve got a house full of furniture already, some of it going back to Colonial times, so I don’t want to part with it. So I have to wait and see now what the answer to my question is. It would be a bugger if we have to say no to the first offer we have gotten, but what’s under the roof is just as important as having the roof over our heads as well, and we still have 5 weeks to go, plus a couple of months at friends’ houses after that if we need the time to find the right place. Phew!

    Suffice to say, next time we meet for a Bludger lunch I will have more grey hairs! 😆

  40. If we’re still posting links to music this morning…

    I’m a lifelong member of the classical music crowd to whom c@t referred, but I love most other forms of music too: especially (and unusually for a classical music buff), country and western.

    So I’d like to post a link in tribute to the unique Kinky Friedman, who departed from this planet a few days ago. Friedman was renowned for being a bit of a pisstake artist, calling his band the Texas Jewboys (in a joking tribute to the king of western swing, Bob Wills and his Texas Playboys). And also writing songs like “They Ain’t Makin’ Jews Like Jesus Any More” and the (no longer acceptable, perhaps never acceptable) “Get Your Biscuits in the Oven and Your Buns in the Bed.”

    But I have always found this song of his to be rather moving.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co3I0GYGaSY

    And, if you don’t appreciate Kinky’s rather mumbling style of delivery, Willie Nelson has done a cover version, although it’s missing from YouTube this morning (but such things have a habit of re-appearing after a time).

  41. I;ve never thought of Assange as a hero. Quite the opposite in fact.

    The two women who accused him of assault had both had consensual sex with Assange – one alleged he had been rough with her, and had removed a condom without her knowledge, an act known as “stealthing”, which is criminalised in most Australian jurisdictions, as well as in Sweden. The other woman said she had consensual sex with Assange and then woke up to find he’d been having sex with her again while she was asleep, also without using a condom.

    Assange vehemently denied all the allegations, and said all the sex was consensual. He said one of the women had gotten into a “tizzy” over the prospect of contracting an STD, and then said she had been “bamboozled” by police. He said Sweden was the “Saudi Arabia of feminism” (it is unclear what he meant by that, but it doesn’t seem like a compliment) and that he “fell into a hornets’ nest of revolutionary feminism”.

    Assange is a notable supporter of revolutions, but perhaps he draws the line at ones inspired by feminism.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-freedom-messiah-is-free-but-a-few-women-won-t-join-the-cheer-squad-20240627-p5jped.html

    And the further descriptions in the article from Assange’s former biography writer of how Assange treated women just underscore why I have a very low opinion of him.

  42. C@t:

    I hope it works out for you. The owner might be cool with removing the furniture if they know they have a solid, responsible tenant.

    That must be a huge relief to you though to finally be offered something.

  43. AnteMeridian if it’s about the videos I am guessing you have already encountered the band OK GO? If not I reckon you could roll out any one of about ten visually striking songs with minute and detailed work on the visual effects – they are quite fantastic ( not so much the music though)

  46. sprocket_: “Think Joe Biden should pull up stumps? This Bulwark panel will give you some ammo.”
    ————————————————————————–
    I haven’t listened to it yet: I will perhaps listen to it later today at the gym (if I can drag myself out of the house on such a crappy day).

    David Frum is a serious figure in US political journalism. But I doubt his views on the matter will have any impact, nor will the NYT editorial telling Biden to go. The Biden camp is currently circling its wagons on the banks of De Nile (and umpteen other cliches). The only thing that might shift him is what the polls say over the next few weeks.

    It doesn’t matter that he delivered a fiery speech somewhere yesterday. Nor does it matter that the Clintons and Obama think he should stay on. It was obvious for all to see on Thursday that he’s nowhere near the man he was four years ago. And the electorate will be voting for him to be still in the job in more than four years time: what on earth will his condition be by then?

    It’s been obvious for a while that he’s been propped up (both metaphorically and sometimes physically) by his support team. They must spend a great deal of time and effort every day managing his condition before the TV cameras, in discussions and negotiations with foreign leaders and important American stakeholders, etc.

    But when he was standing on that stage on Thursday – with no autocue to read and nobody to feed him his lines, and with a requirement to be sharp and on message in his responses to Trump and the moderators – he was totally bewildered and lost.

    It’s not his fault: around half the American men who are Biden’s age have already been dead for a decade or more. A high proportion of the rest are in nursing homes. He’s just too old. Trump is too old as well, and this would be completely apparent if he was up against a quality candidate who was two decades or more younger than him. But, up against Biden, Trump looked completely on the ball: at least for the first half of the debate, by which time I suspect most viewers had turned it off.

    If Biden doesn’t pull the plug, how are the Dems supporters across the nation going to feel? You know, the ones who operate the phone banks and distribute the campaign literature and do the door knocking and whatever. A proportion of them will be happily camped by De Nile, but the rest are going to be totally demoralised. Like McGovern’s campaign in 1972 after he initally picked a V-P candidate who had been given shock treatment for mental illness, or like Romney’s in 2012 after the tape of his “47% speech’ was leaked, the Biden campaign is set to slowly run out of steam and end with Trump winning a huge majority of the electoral college votes.

    Something has to be done. However, I wouldn’t put it past the Dem leadership simply to put their hands over their ears and plough onwards to a disastrous defeat.

  48. President Joe obviously had shocker in the debate with facts and figures, he should have done better or maybe just abandoned that line and straight out attacked Trump. Trump just belligerently threw out whatever came into his head and that’s a win ? People were despairing about Bidens mental capabilities, presentation and ability to beat Trump four years ago yet he prevailed against a sitting President, thats how much America wanted to eject Trump. I know all of the counter arguments and feel just as uncomfortable as anyone else watching his poor performance. The thing is that what he has going for him is incumbency and the general public’s knowledge of what Trump represents. Trump was an unknown quantity last time he won but now he is carrying fifty tons of lead in his saddle bags. I think if you replace Biden at this late stage it is a sign of panic which people like Trump thrive on, you might as well hand the next 4 years to convicted crook Trump right now so we can get it over with sooner .

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