Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
The guy sitting next to Maiden just talks over the top of her. He’s giving me the shits.
Re Payman : – does it really matter that much if she is kicked out of the ALP or joins the Greens?
She has four more years in the Senate and is presumably a reliable left of centre vote for the ALP/Greens? Its not like she is going to suddenly endorse nukes?
HAPPY DAYS IN WA WA LAND ?
Maybe not so for the WA rebellious Labor Senator, but what about the upcoming election.
In 2022
– the Coalition lost five seats to drop from 10 of 15 seats to 5
– Labor gained four seats to move from 5 seats to 9 of 15
– An Independent won one seat [Curtin] from the Liberals.
For 2025, following a redistribution, WA has a new seat {Bullwinkel], 16 election seats {+1] and a new estimated 2PP margin in all seats compared to the 2022 results. I am going with William Bowe’s new 2PP estimates documented on Pollbludger following the WA redistribution in 2024. Most notably, Canning slipped from 3.6 to 1.3%2PP for the Liberals and Hasluck improved for Labor from 6.7% to 10.7% 2PP.
Another noteworthy precedent to the 2025 Federal election will be the WA State election in 2025. The State Labor Government has won 4 of the 6 State election held since the turn of the Century. Most notable of these elections was the 2021 State election when Labor won a whopping 73.1% of the Labor v Coalition primary vote and 53 seats to 6. This followed a Labor win of 41 seats to 19 in 2017.
Sufficed to say Labor has dominated the last 2 Western Australian State elections, winning handsomely in 2017 and tearing the Opposition to threads in 2021. At a State Government level, it will be happy days for the Labor Party for some time to come. The WA State election will probably precede the Federal election and drop some hints about where the WA electorate mind-set is heading in 2025- post covid and post Morrison.
In contrast to State elections, 5 of 8 Federal election results in Western Australia since the turn of the century have favoured the Coalition. Before the 2022 Federal election flogging for the Coalition in Western Australia, the only time Labor broke even with the Coalition in WA seat wins was in 1998 when WA MP Kim Beasley was leader of the Opposition [7-7 seats]. When the Federal Labor Party won the 2007 and 2010 elections, the Western Australia Labor seat count went backwards. In 2004 the seat count in Western Australia was Liberal 10-Labor 5. In 2007 it was 11-4 and in 2010 it was 12-3. This improved slightly for Labor in 2016 [11-5] after a seat was added to the State seat quota and stayed the same in 2019 [11-5].
The question now is this. Was Labor’s Federal election victory in Western Australia [winning four new seats for a 9 Labor, 5 Liberal and 1 Independent] result be a ‘one hit wonder’ that flips around again in 2025 ? Will Western Australia revert back to the roughly 2-1 pro Liberal seat share that has been evident in seven out of eight federal elections since the turn of the century ?
In 2022, Western Australia voters turned against the Coalition in every Western Australian seat {all 15 of them], with only 4 seats not experiencing double digit primary vote swings against the Liberals . The lowest 2PP Liberal Party – swing was in Canning (-6.1%). The negative 2PP swing got worse for the Liberals in every other seat in the State with Curtin the most extreme (-15.6%).
The most frequently cited explanation of why the State gave up five Liberal held seats and put two others in the intensive care unit, one of them on the critical list {Moore 0.7% 2PP, Canning 1.3 % 2PP] for the 2025 election was an ‘up yours’ protest vote against Morrison in 2022 because of the way he handled his relationship with Western Australia Premier during and after the Covid Crisis. Something significant must have mobilised an average of 10 % in 15 electorates in WA to trigger such wide-spread PV swing [almost a patriotic don’t come here from Canberra and tell us sand-gropers how to suck eggs} reaction vote. Waving the State flag in Scomo’s face and telling him to f… k off.
I am normally averse to single layer political analytics and explanations, but this popularised allegory has as much merit as any other ‘what the hell happened in WA’ reasoning I have come across as someone not living in WA during and after the Covid debacle. I was hiding in a cave [in Tasmania].
From Wikipedia we get this which confirms the Morrison – WA Premier Mark McGowan stoush began in 2020 when Morrison was kicking off his role as Prime Minister after winning the 2019 election.
Western Australia (WA) confirmed its first case of COVID-19 on 21 February 2020, and its first death in March. On 15 March, premier Mark McGowan declared a state of emergency and on 24 March, Western Australia closed its borders to the rest of Australia By mid-April 2020, the state had eliminated community transmission of COVID-19, becoming one of the few places in the world to do so. Western Australia’s low case numbers were attributed to a swift introduction of restrictions by authorities, a strict state border policy, and its isolation. There were only a handful of cases of community transmission in the state after mid-April, until late December 2021 when a tourist caused an outbreak that led to the re-imposing of mask wearing rules.
Morrison was ‘not happy Jan’ with the strict border restrictions and launched into frequently vitriolic attacks on the State Premier thereafter. The pinnacle was the Morrison government’s attempts to help Queenslander Clive Palmer force the state open through a high court case during the Covid pandemic. That did not go down well in WA.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-29/clive-palmer-highly-likely-to-win-wa-border-challenge-pm-says/12501872
In February 2022, Morrison did a back-flip on McGowans strict border closure policy, saying that he backed the border closure now because the Omicron variant of the Corona virus was different to the Delta strain and it at risk of overcoming the States hospitals. It wasn’t lost of the media or the WA voters that this back-flip was purely an attempt to save held Liberal WA electorates from extinction.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/scott-morrison-wa-borders-western-australia-mark-mcgowan-backflip/c677e605-90bb-4696-bf4f-74ace5ab1800
In the 2021 mid -Covid State election, McGowan led the Labor Party to a 53 seats to 6 annihilation of the State Liberal Party, but voters were not done yet. It seems that their election baseball bats were left by the front door and bought out to play again in 2022 when Morrison and his soft-shoe WA MPs were up for re-election.
When Morrison travelled to Western Australia ahead of the election campaign, it and didn’t go well. It began with saying he had met with the State Opposition leader, the Liberal David Honey. He had to be reminded that the Opposition leader was in fact a National [Mia Davies] with just two Liberals in the WA lower house.
Morrison repeatedly told Western Australians they could have both McGowan and Morrison – refining the pitch to acknowledge that although he may not be universally popular, he is at least a known quantity. There in his own words was the problem, he was too well known and for all the wrong reasons.
“Andrew, an undecided voter in Swan who Guardian Australia met on the South Perth foreshore, complained all parties have the “same agenda”. But he has “no confidence” in the prime minister, he says, and “Morrison and his personality” may be the best thing Labor has going for it”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/26/why-not-both-voters-in-two-key-wa-seats-doubtful-about-morrison-plus-mcgowan-deal?fr=operanews
Now Morrison is gone and the covid panic is pretty much under control, will West Australians return to old habits of voting for a Labor State Government and a Coalition Federal Government as they have done 7 of 8 times this century (including when Labor won in 2007 and 2010) ?
My crystal ball, set on best case scenario for the Coalition, says some reversion to old habits will save Canning and Moore from the intensive care ward, give the new nominally LABOR seat over to the Liberals and provide an entertaining battle in Tangney in 2025. Hasluck, Pearce and Swan will probably stay in the Labor camp because I’m not seeing a baseball mobilisation equivalent to what Morrison copped for Albanese [not yet anyway] and Curtin will stay with the Independent for as long as she wants to hang around.
Net WA result : Labor 8 or 9, Coalition 6-7 , and Independent 1 after Dutton nuked any habitation chances in yet another inner metropolitan seat [Curtin]. What about the Greens in Western Australia ? Computer says no
Men not allowed to have goolies now?
Excuse him for having a penis!
Labor lost its Authority when McGowan walked in Western Australia.
It’s getting a massive kicking soon federally 53-36 primary Utting poll this week.
West oz says the Teals are on the March in WA in todays paper.
sprocket_: “There is one issue she will cross the floor on. Not ‘whenever she feels like it’”
Well, I thought you were the dyed-in-the-wool Labor person. And I thought that the term Labor people have always used towards members who cross the floor in Parliament to vote in favour of opposition motions is “rats.” Personally I don’t care what she does, but the Labor people I know have always gotten very fired up about this in the past.
Goodness only knows what Mark Kenny was going on about with his “this is what diversity looks like” comment. No it isn’t: diversity looks like Penny Wong and Anne Aly and being part of a united government team.
What this looks like is someone who, on the basis of her interview with Spiers, doesn’t really understand and/or care about their responsibilities as an elected candidate of a political party. The Liberals tolerate a certain amount of it (although there are limits, as a couple of them found out during the last term of the Tasmanian Government). Up to now, Labor hasn’t, and that seems to have worked well for them in my observation. So I wouldn’t be suggesting they change it.
The Chevron doctrine is something that’s been thoroughly rejected in Australian law
———————————
It isnt too hard to pass updated, more descriptive laws/regs in Australia. In the US, the recent SCOTUS ruling makes it so much harder for a democrat executive to have influence, it’s already near impossible for them to pass laws through congress (and survive appeals to SCOTUS).
I find tattoos artistically interesting.
There’s got to be a story or inspiration behind it.
Having a tattoo with no meaning behind it isn’t a good look though.
And as for body piercings, not my cuppa tea.
Georgie is a stunner though.
Yes yes, it’s allllll a stunt from the Greens, and how dare they ruin the career of a Labor senator by… putting forward a position she agrees with more then her party line?
Seriously.
Also mehar totally agree re Biden, and it’s honestly amazing how the democratic org power holders are prepared to make an even worse mistake then 2016
Boy, Essendon dropped their bundle last night. Pretenders.
Look I respect the people on here who are despairing and think that Trump will romp home against a mentally frail Biden, you may well be right on the knocker. My gut feeling though is that Biden will prevail. The commentator David Pakman acknowledged Bidens age but said his advice from insiders and medical experts was that Joe Biden was no more or less compos mentis than anyone else his age. Ok you may be right that Trump will back out of any further debates but I don’t think he will,he is dumb and arrogant. Americans face a stark choice, a guy who is really old and a bit frail at times but they chose this same guy four years ago over when the same questions were about and over an incumbent President, why? Because it’s a choice between a decent and from his last term competent guy and a convicted crook who stoked up a mob who wanted to harm amongst others his own VP Pence ,he is also an enabler of religious extremism, racism and autocracy. And this is only the tip of why he is unfit to serve again. At the end of the day in all areas of life ,it pays to remain positive.
Sandman
1400 words
I have written longer university essays, which I think were equally as unread.
Payman was impressive.
Labor would be crazy to chop down a future star over this.
Fatima Payman’s action should be the catalyst for Labor relaxing their rules on crossing the floor.
It’s completely unhealthy to force your MP’s to vote against a hard held principle.
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 10:08 am
Sandman
1400 words
I have written longer university essays, which I think were equally as unread.
A post like that should start with an executive summary.
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:45 am
Good to see a west Aussie do his duty yesterday by failing to score for Swans against Dockers in kick after the siren to win the match.
_____________________
One of the worst after the siren kicks I have ever seen. Had no momentum at all. A full forward needs to be able to make the distance from 45m otherwise they will have a very short career.
Expect the Swans to move him on at the end of the year.
BKsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:44 am
[Payman was impressive.]
And represents Australia away from bloggers, journalists, the political players and assorted wannabes.
Fatima Payman is good for women, Muslim women, the Labor Party and the future of Australia.
Good onya Fatima.
MB
Indeed, the application for ALP candidacy for elected office mandates voting with Party decisions. And the vetting process confirms this. It is made clear that deviation from this rule is expulsion.
And this rule has and will continue to work well.
Payman is not the first one to cross the floor. In fact since 1950 there hav been 30 ALP members to do so
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/CrossingTheFloorFederalParliament#_Toc27135074
The last one was Harry Quick from your state in 2005 over anti-terrorism legislation – and he wasn’t expelled. Though he was expelled in 2007 for failing to pay his dues, and campaigning for non-ALP candidates.
So we will see what happens with Payman, who IMHO has a stronger case than Harry Quick as the issue at question is actually in the ALP Platform. Though the specific words have been cherry picked out by Bandt.
Can’t afford to be wrong with a gut feeling.
The stakes are too high.
The Dems need to go with a leader who gives them the best chance of defeating MAGA.
Biden is surely not that.
Indeed Rex; what does it say about you when you champion having such a diverse range of senators… and then chop them down the moment they practice said diversity, a diversity I note which is hardly outside the mainstream.
Also friendly reminder re 2020… biden won by around 44k votes in the right states.
Friendly reminder that this debates purpose was to destroy the old man biden clicked… instead it cemented it.
And friendly reminder that bidens polling reaalllly came crashing down towards the big day in 2020, and that this time he doesn’t have the fat to spare
Rick Wilson and the Lincoln project are sticking with Biden.
Meanwhile over at the Bulwark, not so much.
Rick Wilson is genuine about being a never Trumper.
The only thing that would not be problematic is if VP changed up.
Kamala Harris would much prefer to work in the judicial branch of govt.
We shall see how this plays out.
Biden might be the obvious choice between the two but the US voters will be assessing his likely fitness over the next 4 years. There have been presidents and Prime Ministers (Churchill for one) who have been mentally or physically incapacitated but they were in a time when it could be hidden and their advisors could take charge. Biden’s incapacity is there for all to see.
I agree with Dio, I could not in good conscience vote for Joe.
Oakeshott country
Could you in good conscience vote for Trump?
Sheesh.
I asked ChatGPT to summarise Sandman’s 1400 words in 100..
In the 2022 federal election, Western Australia saw significant changes with the Coalition losing five seats, Labor gaining four, and an Independent winning one. For the 2025 election, a new seat, Bullwinkel, has been added. The state election in 2025 will precede the federal election, with the Labor Party having dominated recent state elections.
Despite Labor’s recent success, historical trends favor the Coalition in federal elections. The backlash against Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 and his conflict with WA Premier McGowan contributed to the Coalition’s poor performance in 2022. The 2025 federal election will reveal if this shift is temporary or lasting.
Victoria, it’s the us… you need to accept that part of the job of the candidate is to get people out on the day.
And atm Biden isn’t doing that…
This is the logical end point of “vote for me, I’m not as bad as the other guy” elections.
Lordbrain
No way is Biden as bad as the other guy. He has actually ran a great administration with no scandals to,speak,of.
Sheesh
What is wrong with you people
Vic
Obviously not but the American system does not have compulsory voting and there is usually a Socialist candidate in most states, who would usually attract my vote.
I note the establishment media publishing a hit piece on Assange today.
Someone prepared to publish a storyline that so brutally exposes the ruling establishment is unfamiliar to the shills these days and threatens their cosy arrangement.
OC
The handlers famously never let FDR be photographed in his wheelchair leading up to the 1944 election.
Franklin D. Roosevelt was not publicly photographed in his wheelchair before his last election win. Efforts were made to avoid showing him in a way that emphasized his disability, maintaining a public image of strength and vitality.
Biden’s team have not learnt from history
Victoria, when did I say Biden is as bad as Trump?
I would hold my nose and vote for him, but after witnessing him over the last year, and especially last week… his isnt cognitively healthy enough to be President.
And if your argument is “well he will be surrounded by the right team and they can manage” then that opens a whole new discussion on the nature of the presidency.
I remember how we are on the Left used to use this point to bludgeon the Republicans on Raegan… good to see this is another example of “bad when they do it, good when we do it”
That is very interesting analysis at 9.54 Sandman. The Libs have another problem in addition to being owned by right wing religious loons, today the West Australian tells us that Climate 200 is donating to Teal groups in a couple of electorates in addition to Curtin.
Oakshott country
So not voting is helpful to whom?
Lordbrain
Biden is cognitively healthy. He has managed to hold together its allies in the west. We could have easily been in ww3 by now.
But you do you.
Victoria at 10:22 am
No way is Biden as bad as the other guy. He has actually ran a great administration with no scandals to,speak,of.
———————
I’m at the point of thinking that Biden hasn’t run his administration at all. He’s presumably had a pretty skilled, technocratic Democratic Party machine around him, with folks who that have done a decent job ticking things along. But I cannot believe that a man in such cognitive decline has his hand on the wheel.
Yeah yeah alright I get abit long winded but detailed election analysis is my strong suit so let me play. I promise to use executive summaries in future instead but i thought some might enjoy knowing more than they did yesterday. If you are going to stick your neck out and have a crack at predicting election results you should back it up with factual detail I reckon, but maybe not here. Cheers everyone.
This election shouldn’t be about Biden.
It should be about defeating MAGA and looking ahead.
Biden did his job. His legacy is set in stone.
It’s time to put the interests of the country and the world before what’s good for Biden.
Don’t roll the dice on sentiment. This election is too important.
Victoria:
I’m pretty sure LP have said their fight is against Trump and they will support whomever the Democrat nominee is. Whether it is Biden or someone else.
Stinker
The only person with cognitive decline is Trump.
He was at it again yesterday saying how great Hannibal Lecter is.
I kid you not.
Fess
Rick Wilson said it and i agree. The dems need to hold their nerve.
If they change horses now, they will lose bigly. Only the VP can be up for grabs.
Victoria…
Trump is delusional, and no1 here other then the usual trolls would argue differently.
But he has been delusional since he announced his run almost a decade ago… and thats the problem.
Trump is still sounding like Trump.
Biden… is not sounding like 2020 Biden.
2020 is not 2024, and Biden barely won in 2020.
Victoria at 10:31 am
The only person with cognitive decline is Trump.
—————-
I disagree. Trump is a lunatic, but I don’t think he’s nearly as cognitively fried as Biden. What he says may be vile, but it is deliberate.
If you genuinely think that Biden is cognitively competent, then all I can say is that there are none so blind as those who will not see.
I will concede one thing though.
I previously called for Biden to step down ASAP and for Harris to be sworn in.
Bludgers have convinced me that the best course of action is for Biden to see out this term but withdraw his nomination for another term.
The Dems have enough time to determine another candidate.
There’s a photo of FDR being carried up a flight of stairs in his chauffeurs arms, that’s not his 1944 campaign, when he was obviously dying, that was from the Thirties.
The truth is that the Press conspired to keep the facts from the American people.
He only lived to 62, was crippled from the waist down 26 years.
Officially ‘Polio’, some said ‘Syphilis’.
Lordbain at 10.33, that is true about Biden not being his 2020 self, but to balance that, this time voters know much more about Trump, both as a person and as POTUS.
Gavin Newsome or Gretchen Whitmer will figure in calculations going forward.
Bad thinker
And FDR was a consequential President.
Thanks Granny, I am glad to see Climate 200 are backing Teals in WA – good luck to them. Have you got a reference article on the new Climate 200 funding announcements.. Oh the West Australian. Me go lookie. Oh nice, Forrest on 4.2 2PP just got interesting.
Indeed Granny… and look at the polls.
Knowing what Trump is like, the polls are “using the nicest language possible for Biden” neck and neck.
Hell, Silver came out just before the debate and said Bidens probably got a 30ish percent chance of winning.
Bidens job is 2 fold; get out the base, and get enough swing voters in enough key states to win the College.
His base… is currently apathetic. And time and time again has shown that a key point for swingvoters is a strong looking leader.
So on the two key practices needed to win the election… Biden is not doing hot.
And before someone repeats AGAIN that Trump is a lying liar who lies… no shit. His been doing that for decades. He did it the entire time in the 2016 run… and won. He did it the entire time in 2020… and almost won.
Side note; debates are a complete waste of time in their current format, it also comes down to sophistry; a true form of the black arts.
Very smart to seed-fund some Teal in WA.
That will cut the Libs overall hopes off at the knees.
FDR had a sort of special railway platform built for him in an out of the way part of a big station, it would’ve been New York or Chicago. He could be helped in & out of his carriage away from prying eyes.
Debates are a waste of time and do not determine result of elections.
Funnily enough,