Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
Victoria at 10:46 am
Debates are a waste of time and do not determine result of elections.
Funnily enough,
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Rather highlights the folly of Biden participating in one at this point, I would say
Don’t send Biden ‘back for his hat’.
UK cartoons and other miscellany
Morten Morland
Martyn Turner
Matt
Banx
Harry Burton
Chris Riddell
Graeme Keyes
Mark Parisi
Wayno
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Stolen from the Internet
Morning all. I managed to contract a virus on the flight back home on Friday night so am not functioning at 100%. Will find out Monday if it is covid.
I really wish we could go back to requiring masks on flights and public transport (only). Covid and various respiratory viruses are rampant at present, and the cost is a lot more than the total value of the airline industry. Public messaging needs to change.
Not just participating… the Biden camp wanted this debate, and wanted it nice and early; they wanted to remind america what Trump was like.
That debate was all about optics, because optics matter in US elections (implying they dont here etc etc).
And with multiple mainstream “centrist” media entities calling for Biden to step aside… yeh, I would say the optics really did blow up in Bidens face.
Victoria
I admire your resolve in the face of adversity.
No one here has a vote, just their reasoned analysis, some better informed than others. Mavis’ comment earlier that cites 4% of respondents less likely to vote for Biden and 2% less likely to vote for Trump may better indicate that those people are less likely to vote *at all* rather than that they are switching their vote.
The issue for Democrats is not just that, in a tight race, they have to win in all the right places, but that there need to turn out the vote in the first place.
Is President Biden going to turn out the vote? Do American voters feel the same sense of existential threat from a return of Trump as liberal, even some conservative, political activists and observers?
You claim certainty that Trump cannot win, but the truth is you have no basis for the level of certainty you profess. It would be nice to enjoy it, and not be worried about how the campaign is faring (although if everyone held that view it might itself affect voter turnout).
But I’ve got to assume you know all of this. Which makes your adherence to this dogged Pollyanna position all the more perplexing.
Awaiting that Newspoll tonight. This will cover both the Paris backflip as well as the reactor locations.
Probably best to wait until late July for the polls to balance out as by then the S3 cuts will have gone into two pay packets, and there might be more details on reactor costings.
Lars – I think the 2PP will be closer than what you suggest.
YouGov are overdue a couple of days (last poll around 7-Jun)
Redbridge also a bit overdue. (They mentioned earlier this year they’d try and drop a monthly poll).
Perhaps they’re both waiting for the Boss of polls to drop tonight.
Should have Morgan and Essential too within the next 48 hours.
Kirsdarke – take a break from the site as long as you need. Stay well and look fwd to hearing from you when you’re ready. I drop on and off like a yo yo. Usually “on” when a poll or three loom, and off when no polls.
Gosh, nearly 3000 posts. My guess c@t will end up as post 3000. Big blog this one.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-family-path-forward-disastrous-debate-mess-rcna159591
Key point in the article;
“So far, the party’s top leaders have offered public support for Biden, including in tweets posted by former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Senior congressional Democrats, including Reps.
Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and Nancy Pelosi of California, have privately expressed concerns about his viability, said two sources apprised of those discussions, even as they all publicly back the president.”
The truth is that the New Deal failed by 1937 and America was sliding into Depression again by 1940.
FDR largely won in 1940 by promising to keep America out of the European War.
Now, in 1940 Roosevelt forced Cactus Jack out and replaced him with Henry Wallace, a suspected Communist. This had ramifications by 1944, since Roosevelt’s health was failing and he clearly wasn’t going to live thru another Term.
Wallace was replaced by unknown K.C. pol Harry Truman on the ticket, who ended up President by May 1945.
I think this may be a similar scenario, and the real target is Harris. Obviously, Harris’ replacement would need to be capable of winning in 2028 when Joe will no longer be on the ticket.
That indicates, imo, a mostly unknown female Black pol getting the nod.
Thoughts with Kirsdarke.
Correction, it’s just ticked over 3000 posts.
…and the winner is…Victoria.
Sprocket
A worse example was Hindenburg who remained Reichspräsident while obviously intellectually incapacitated. Surrounded by the “right sort” of advisers (all from the Junker class) he chose Hitler as the Chancellor. As they say, the rest is history.
One anecdote is that on the night that Hitler became Chancellor the Nazis staged a torchlight parade in Berlin. He allegedly said to an aide “the men seem happy to be going to the front”.
The other American example is Wilson who, just when the post WWI polity was forming, had a debilitating stroke that was hidden from the US people. Rather than hand on to Tom Marshall, his thoroughly decent VP, the US government was effectively run by his wife for the last 18 months of his term. The end result was no US involvement in the League of Nations and a Republican win by the crony capitalists Harding and Coolidge in 1920.
Ok Rex , my strong conviction is that Biden will prevail. It is also my strong conviction that replacing Biden at this late stage would almost certainly result in another disastrous Trump presidency.
Morning all. I managed to contract a virus on the flight back home on Friday night so am not functioning at 100%. Will find out Monday if it is covid.
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You may hope for covid. Because the cold going around Adelaide atm is a doozy. I’ve been down for over a week and still not functioning (pushing through for some of it didn’t help). Concentration still badly effected. Others I know in this wave show similar duration and symptoms. Wondering if bodies forgot what colds are and struggling to respond.
Interesting Uttering polls in WA recently. Federal Labor getting a warning shot this week and in the State election poll William told us about in another post thread there was a drop in Labors support. However,” none of this goes to the Liberals, who are at 27% as compared with 26.8%”. Not so good for the State Libs, but movement at the station for the federal campaign.
Victoria, I’d throw Pritzker in the mix.
Re Newspoll I said a couple of weeks back Coalition would get an uptick re nuclear policy. That might not eventuate now because of how poorly they’ve prosecuted it. I’m thinking 51/49 ALP but wouldn’t be surprised if it was the other way or line ball. Labor has had a good week. The Coalition looks deflated in Parliament.
Inflation and talk of interest rate rise won’t help Labor.
Warning signs for the ALP are good news. Focusses the troops and leadership. They need to keep governing with a level head, sharpen their lines and work like crazy on the economy/cost of living issue so it isn’t too much of a biggie come the election campaign.
TK
Thanks and my sympathy.
My wife works at the Adelaide Womens and Childrens Hospital. The pediatric ward is awash with respiratory virus cases at present (covid, RSV and colds). A lot of staff are going down with illnesses and it is going to impact on the ability to deliver care, especially elective surgery.
If Health Ministers (State and Federal) do not want to preside over more headlines about long delays and ramping in our hospitals, they need to start messaging the public again about correct behaviour with communicable respiratory illnesses. In the government’s rush to get the economy (and budget) back to normal, they seem to forget that having a lot of people off work won’t achieve that goal.
TK
What do you see as banarcles that Labor needs to remove in the lead up to the election ..?
Soc, absolutely. Masks don’t damage the economy. Going home when sick actually helps the economy. Washing hands as well.
Elective surgery is already a problem, shouldn’t be hard to sell a campaign that says ‘help us help people – wear a mask if you are sick, wear a mask on planes etc etc’
NBC News reports that President Biden is ‘expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David’ tomorrow.
Team Katichsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 11:25 am
Warning signs for the ALP are good news. Focusses the troops and leadership. They need to keep governing with a level head, sharpen their lines and work like crazy on the economy/cost of living issue so it isn’t too much of a biggie come the election campaign.
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Yep. Cost of living concern is always around the place in elections but it really has run over the top of most other concerns. I worry for the country and the climate if Labor drops the ball this time around.
HH
Sounds like a withdrawal from the race, due to health reasons, is imminent. The tricky bit will be to explain how he is fit to continue if he is not fit to be reelected.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-30/emerson-supermarket-review-unlikely-lower-prices/104031280
I can answer this; no, it wont.
Until Government bodies have the power and will to implement actual behaviour changing penalties… nothing will change.
Rex, for me it is the environment laws. Stop squibbing, stop watering them down. But for re-election, cost of living and maintaining employment levels.
They also need to firm up the transition to renewables both physically (build stuff/investment) and in peoples minds (which links to electricity costs and cost of living).
Things get messy if Trump wins. Would they (can they) go early if that looks likely?
TK
I agree.
I think Labor need to take a bit of the leadership back that they have ceded to ‘the market’, the big corporate and industry groups and the big 4 consultants.
Show voters that they are in charge and their focus is on them.
Princeplanet @ #3014 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 10:42 am
I was of that opinion until the other day. Not out of any devotion or loyalty to Biden himself but because of the risks you’ve outlined above, as well as the fact you always want to have the incumbency advantage going in, especially in a race with loads of undecided voters. However, the one fatal issue that Biden has was highlighted at that debate (which was promoted heavily by Democrats i the lead-up as the event which was going to contrast the pair and show how fit Biden is for the role and how unfit Trump is), I’ve changed my mind. I realise it’d be a risky roll of the dice, but some circumstances require that.
I am not going to keep going into it, I’ve said my piece on the topic. Obviously, we still need to wait and see how this all plays out and, ultimately, it’s Biden’s call at the end of the day. If he does stay on as the nominee, he’ll have my full support (i.e. which is basically worthless anyway because I am an Australian) to beat Trump. As I would with any replacement candidate. And, if you end up being right about keeping Biden on and Biden wins, it’ll be the happiest time I’ve ever been wrong about something.
Wrt environment laws…. Here in SA the Liberal party has a long history of conserving the environment. The leader of the ALP development friendly. The opposition leader has pushed this in interviews and leaflets and Malinauskas has responded with some interesting efforts in tree protections (and taking away some exemptions in bushfire rules) just last month. But there is no doubt Malinauskas has pulled funding from the environment sector (as did Weatherill) and the Liberals will campaign on this.
I think Labor need to take a bit of the leadership back that they have ceded to ‘the market’, the big corporate and industry groups and the big 4 consultants.
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That’s the good governing part. I don’t think it wins votes in a campaign.
Sandman….
Interesting comment from you earlier…
Tip though….anything much over 200 words and with said words with syllables over 2 will not be read, let alone understood by sundry nongs who come here.
In WA time will tell……
Not even the Liberals with Basil up front really think they can pull back enough seats to win State government next time around.
At the Federal level, maybe one or two seats go to the LNP but I would not put money on it.
A lot will be depend how the economy is looking first quarter in 2025.
Team Katichsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 11:42 am
Rex, for me it is the environment laws. Stop squibbing, stop watering them down…….
…Things get messy if Trump wins. Would they (can they) go early if that looks likely?
================================================================
The election window to call one opens up in 12 hours time for Albo. Very unlikely.
Fairly confident to say he will wait until well after QLD is over (ie > Oct-26).
Most likely will wait until after the U.S. election too. Quite a lot going on in the world at the moment with 3 of the five U.N. veto holders having elections, starting with France today. The posters on this blog overnight tonight will probably start getting a drip feed of the primaries from France where it looks like R.N. will jump well over the 30% threshold. From Le Monde – the first offical results should start coming through after 8PM Paris time (4 am Canberra time Monday 1-Jul).
Per the environment laws – people keep telling opinion pollsters that this is a major issue, yet there seems to be a continuous movement towards right wing national political parties, who are generally hostile to stronger environmental protections. Puzzling state of affairs. I haven’t followed much of the U.K. but I sense that the environment is not a major issue this election, it is more immigration and anger towards the tories.
nadia88
Respondents have been saying climate change is an important issue but of declining importance over recent polls. The degree of correlation between that decline and the rise of the Right bears some scrutiny I reckon.
I’m not suggesting people with environmental concerns are themselves shifting to the Right (though the phenomenon of progressives getting into wellness culture and then drifting rightward is something I’ve commented on in the past).
These psychiatrists usually analyse Trump’s cognitive decline.
In this episode, they hone in on Biden’s performance at the debate – definitely worth watching. And as a bonus they have a special guest at the end, David Dunning, the professor who defined the Dunning Kruger effect. Who is worth the watch alone…
https://www.youtube.com/live/zFRFqhvDDBw?si=EZhdXXjM5w5mdweP
The Economist’s poll of polls says it will be ‘several days’ until the impact of the debate is registered in polling.
You can be sure the DNC has its internal numbers now.
EDIT: and noting it’s not just the debate performance itself but the reaction by Democrats to the performance that has been so damaging. Self-perpetuating catastrophising.
Nadia, I agree. Environment protection laws are my personal bugbear. I doubt they will play a part in an election (either way, strong or weak).
Clear and concise and strong environment laws help good governance. They can speed up approvals (or rejections). They can avoid lengthy and costly appeals. They can stop a company wasting money on applications that should never be started.
Just more feels like people tell opinion pollsters what they think pollsters want to hear, but then go to the ballot box and vote differently. Perhaps the issue of climate change has become so polarised that people who are indifferent tell people who are “into it” what they want to hear to avoid an argument.
Just looking a bit at France, there is a 28 year old right winger up against a 72 year old left winger. Younger people seem to be lining up behind the 28 year old. From the report on the BBC a couple of weeks ago, it also seemed younger people lined up more in support of the German far right wing party too per Europe elections.
Link: https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-europe-young-voters-election-2024-foreigners-out-generation-france-germany/
I don’t know if “Politico” is a left or right wing outfit. Maybe it’s not important or perhaps it’s a sign of polarisation if a reader questions whether the author is left or right and then ignore it. (The equivalent I suppose when Trump derides the verdict of “left wing” Judges, which sends a message to his supporters that the Judges verdict is naturally wrong. It’s a crazy / polarised world we’re heading too.
nadia88
Maybe so.
Ante Meridian
Feel the understated power of this timeless classic.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cMer297X_LI&pp=ygUnYmlsbHkgZmllbGQgeW91IHdlcmVuJ3QgaW4gbG92ZSB3aXRoIG1l
Nadia88 only 9 hrs to go !!!
These psychiatrists usually analyse Trump’s cognitive decline.
In this episode, they hone in on Biden’s performance at the debate – definitely worth watching. And as a bonus they have a special guest at the end, David Dunning, the professor who defined the Dunning Kruger effect. Who is worth the watch alone…
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Sorry Sprocket, I cant watch these two (three) for an hour and a half. Can you give me the synopsis? Is it just ‘Biden is showing his age with possible signs of dementia/decline and was badly coached’, ‘Trump is a sociopath with signs of dementia but did OK for him’?
Socrates @ #3019 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 11:26 am
Covid followed by RSV put my daughter into hospital a month back for 5 days, she’s only 20 months old. Better now.
Badthinker at 12:35 pm
Looking at the list of Nixon Pardons, he resigned 8/ 8 1974, last round of Pardons was 6/1/74.
https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-richard-nixon-1969-1974
Which is tomorrow.
Was Joe planning on pardoning Hunter tomorrow, news leaked and precipitated a Coup?
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Yes, that’s a much more likely reason for Biden to potentially step down than the debate performance and the myriad of concerns that crystallised. Bloody hell.
And while I’m sure a few of us watched Total Control on ABCTV this live performance is quite something.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F1Uu5nsfmic&pp=ygUUbW90ZWxzIHRvdGFsIGNvbnRyb2w%3D
Anyhoo, that’s my diversion for the day.
Stinker @ #3042 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 12:40 pm
Conspiracy theories don’t take long to take root in febrile fertile RW minds, do they? Especially when the ridiculousness is reinforced by other bad actors. 😐
BREAKING: https://twitter.com/AdamBandt/status/1807239538202566772
Lordbain @ #3008 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 10:54 am
They’ll all support publicly until they dont. We’ve seen this game time and time again.
I did a back of the napkin swot analysis on it, and on balance I reckon the Dems will stay with Biden, even though the likelihood of a loss has just risen significantly.
Mainly due to the massive amounts of money already spent, and the need to get that back off donors a second time and then re-spend it. Printing presses alone would need a month before the stuff was street ready. Then followed by the ground game impact, do Biden volunteers switch to someone else. Possibly not, that impacts the down ticket ballots immensely.
I of course acknowledge I may be 100% wrong, as it is very early after the debate and in a week true assessments of all the impacts will have been conducted. Parties dont just drop candidates because of bad polling and the US really doesn’t do it very often.
Time for Labor to relax their parliamentary voting rules.
Rex Douglas @ #3046 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 12:45 pm
My split second very initial partisan reaction is the Greens are trying to wedge Labor and they dont care if a Liberal government is the outcome.
My second option is pretty much along the same lines of this, but I do wonder why the Greens would do this with the very strong likelihood of failure, why not take it to the election and then claim a mandate when they get 14% of the vote.
MI, the probability of the dems sticking with biden will jump if nothing has changed by mid week, especially for the reasons you gave. Picking a new nominee is difficult, but the shifting of resources is a cluster fuck waiting to happen.
Again, comes down to the point people have been making for a while… the dems should have had a backup plan, because when your candidate is 80 plus, decline hits hard and fast
Biden spending time with his family was announced a week ago, its not about discussing the future post debate.
https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1807230395781390788/photo/1
He could discuss running or not of course, and presumably have other meetings (the job never stops), but I think journos are making that bit up.