Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
I will say this regarding the Biden situation: Whatever happens, Harris needs to be loyal and behind him to the end. She can’t publicly turn against him, express doubt or try and tap him on the shoulder. If he decides to step down, he’ll likely handpick his successor and, regardless of what you think of her, there is a reasonable chance she would be chosen. Only if and when Biden says he’s stepping down can she express any interest in the job.
Otherwise, she’s going to be seen as a disloyal, Machiavellian deputy who stabbed her boss in the back to advance her own ambitions. A bad look politically any day, but even more fatal for a woman.
Covid followed by RSV put my daughter into hospital a month back for 5 days, she’s only 20 months old. Better now.
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Jeepers. Good to hear all is well. And a reminder – I was being flippant about Soc maybe wishing it was covid. I work with an elderly chap who got sick not long after I did (even tho I went home when I felt symptoms). I told him he shouldn’t assume he caught the cold from me and shouldn’t assume my negative covid test put him in the clear. But he refused to test. WTF? At his age, why wouldn’t you test?
Leroy, yes. There will be a lot of guff floating in the media this next week. If something happens, it wont happen quickly, it will be managed carefully, there will be lies told, rumor’s from nothing and planting of info, spin….
via GIPHY
Wat Tyler
If people are saying ‘but for Biden’s age, Trump is beatable by anyone else’ there is no reason Harris shouldn’t be the candidate.
Stinkersays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 12:40 pm
…
Deleted that post.
Tomorrow is 7/1, not 6/1.
Anyway, it looks like 1/6 has no significance, here’s a list of Biden’s Pardons to date<
https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present
Way less than Nixon, Joe has pardoned a few Cocaine importers over the years, can he pardon a few more before the curtain falls?
A bloke goes fishing off the Frankston pier early this morning.
One with nature.
Minding his own business.
Within a minute he’s dead.
Stabbed by a random for no particular reason.
No argument. No fight.
Just stabbed. Dead.
Hug your kids.
TK
Sorry Sprocket, I cant watch these two (three) for an hour and a half. Can you give me the synopsis? Is it just ‘Biden is showing his age with possible signs of dementia/decline and was badly coached’, ‘Trump is a sociopath with signs of dementia but did OK for him’?
On Biden, they said his stutter and especially his technique to deal with it, has gotten worse since his 2020 debate.
His responses to the abortion question and the ‘are you up to it’ question displayed signs of dementia in a) introducing immigrant murder of a young woman into the abortion answer and b) getting into a golf handicap answer, and fluffing what it was. In both cases, whatever he was coached to say did not come out.
They talked about trauma, and what causes it. And said much of the response and what people were saying showed signs of trauma – people having put faith in the President and seeing him fail on the big stage.
On Trump, they pointed out his technique (which was I’m the best, you’re the worst, and immigrants are taking everything off you) – rinse and repeat. And compared the inability of the TV debate medium to deal with continual lying – if the only one who could push back – Biden – was incapable on the night to do so, for the most part.
David Dunning said wtte- early days. 1 drop in the puddle, there will be more. But true to the effect he discovered, he said ‘But what would I know?”
Rewi @ #3054 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 12:35 pm
I don’t disagree with that. In fact, she’s the most logical and likely candidate. My point was she must never be seen as disloyal or turning on him if she wants voters to like her.
Does global instability help the incumbent ALP or the self-styled machoism of Dutton?
Do the Liberals consider a merge with the Nationals to help them show strength in unity?
If people are saying ‘but for Biden’s age, Trump is beatable by anyone else’
Who is saying that?
Trump has said he doesn’t care if the candidate is Newsom. Joe, Harris or whoever.
While Trump didn’t keep a lot of his 2016 promises, America was in better shape when he left Office than it is now.
Barring a repeat of the 2020 Steal, Trump is the next President, so swapping him out is going to have few takers.
I think it is possible that a Coup is happening in America.
TK, I think it damages Labor coming and going.
Say your a supporter of a relationship with the US and you want the leader that seems best to get along with trump… well that’s dutton.
Say your not a supporter of the US alliance amd you want aus to distance itself… well that’s greens etc.
I don’t think this is a major vote changer either way, but it’s just another example of the death of the status quo party
Thanks Sprocket.
One thing Albo is good at is talking in a calm tone at the right time.
Dutton is programmed to be confrontational at all times.
I think voters would lean to Albo’s calmness in these times of global instability.
Huge stretch asking Americans to elect a black liberal woman from California.
If Biden releases his delegates, there will be a ballot on the floor of the Democratic Convention in Chicago on 19 August.
This used to happen all the time, for example in 2024 there was a record of 103 rounds of balloting before a winner emerged. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Democratic_National_Convention
There was 19 nominations, and the factions manoeuvred – including as David Frum put it, the Klu Klux Klan grouping versus the whiskey drinking Irish and Germans from the North East.
A footnote in the current situation, is that not only Biden has 90%+ of the President delegates, but Kamala has 90%+ of the VP ballots. So she is VP nominee no matter what, unless she releases or wins the top of the ticket.
If people are saying ‘but for Biden’s age, Trump is beatable by anyone else’ there is no reason Harris shouldn’t be the candidate.
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I’ve certainly not said that. While “Generic Dem” does OK against Trump, actual options in polling have not fared much better than Biden (usually the same or worse). Now while that can be explained by name recognition and lack of campaigning by those other Dem potential candidates, I would very much caution that;
Do not under-estimate Trump/MAGA and
Do not under-estimate the job in front of Biden or a replacement if that’s how they go.
This election needs to be WON by the Democrats. The election will not simply be LOST by Trump.
Huge stretch asking Americans to elect a black liberal woman from California.
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Indeed!
Your not wrong Lars, and it highlights the fact that the dems should have been working on a list of potential nominees for years now… if trump dropped dead, the republicans would have a blood bath but quickly has a nominee come out and ape trump as the apparent heir. For the dems… who have they got that has the appeal?
Harris? A cop that was tough on drug related crimes, is a woman, and a person of color.
Gavin is the avatar of california; the supposed punchline for right learning Americans (ignoring reality, but then this is the party of trump, where optics matter and facts go to die)
I mean who have the dems got that has broad appeal, fires up the base, and doesn’t alienate the swingstates?
That’s ignoring how the dems leaning into right wing narratives on policies (crime stats, the border etc) has completely fucked them on those narratives.
Not looking great for the Dems.
They maybe damned if they do, damned if they dont regarding Biden.
Whatever they do they have to appear more confident than they appear at the moment.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst, I say.
I have a number of large purchases coming up – all from China.
I will be aiming for delivery before November.
Very informative sprocket (if only 2024 is how the slight date error actually went)
I have been a supporter of Harris for a while. She isnt the perfect candidate, but she is substantial and worthy.
However, IF Biden withdraws from the candidature, there is merit in a show of stability by both Harris and Biden focussing solely on governing until January and the transition of power – rather than campaigning. If people start seriously questioning Bidens acuity as POTUS, having Harris there focusing only on her job helps strengthen the executive from the attacks that will come from the GOP in congress and beyond. The DNC cant drop that ball.
Kamala Harris is 1/4 African.
Her mother is subcontinental Indian, her father is a mixed heritage Jamaican.
Kamala Harris’s Jamaican American father, Donald J. Harris, is of Afro-Jamaican and Irish-Jamaican ancestry.[17] He is a Stanford University professor of economics (emeritus) who arrived in the United States from British Jamaica in 1961, for graduate study at UC Berkeley, receiving a PhD in economics in 1966.[18][19] Donald Harris met his future wife Shyamala Gopalan at a college club for African-American students (though Indian American, Gopalan was allowed to join).[20][21]
Harris was a State Prosecutor before entering politics, and this has led to some right of centre views – but mostly she is progressive.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Kamala_Harris
LB
Yes, only 100 years out – obviously meant 1924.
Well said, Lars.
Which is why I still think that the best option is someone from the Democrat right, and therefore whatever happens, Trump is going to win.
Well Harry S Truman was seen as a lightweight too.
Maybe they have Biden resign and Harris campaigns as president ? Benefit of incumbency ?
The people baffled at the idea that the Vice President would be the most likely person to be the replacement nominee remind me of those who were baffled last time at the idea that a former VP to a popular president might actually win his party’s presidential primaries.
Which is why the whole ‘anyone but Trump’ line is a furphy. It’s actually ‘any white guy but Trump’.
Oh, hang on, no, it’s ‘any white guy who’s progressive but not too progressive but Trump’.
Wait, wait, it’s ‘any white guy who’s well known in all 50 states for being progressive but not too progressive but Trump’.
Sprocket
Thanks for this link to the forensic psychologists analysis of Biden and Trump. Depressing but accurate.
https://www.youtube.com/live/zFRFqhvDDBw
I don’t think there can be any doubt the debate showed Biden has suffered cognitive decline. I have three concerns:
1. Biden’s performance won’t convince Democrats to vote Republican. But it might be enough to deter marginal Democrats from voting in a voluntary vote system.
2. Trump is still a terrible candidate, but all of the flaws evidenced are known to the MAGA crowd. They don’t care. They might be energised by the thought their candidate looked physically and mentally stronger than his opponent.
3. Biden’s performance has turned the spotlight to himself and away from Trump. That could see increasing momentum for Trump and away from Biden. Under future scrutiny and pressure Biden might freeze up again.
As I said yesterday I think the Democrats must change candidate. The new one should be a lot younger.
Apologies sprocket, what I meant is if that aacidental mistype had occurred in real life, the dems wouldn’t be in the position they are right now
nadia88 @ #3032 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 12:01 pm
It’s not so puzzling. There is a concerted campaign underway (even right here on PB, by the usual suspects) that we’ll all be roooned if we dare to even think about adopting stronger environmental policies, or try to quit our addiction to fossil fuels.
Sadly, most people don’t see how they are being manipulated to be concerned about the cost of living crisis instead of the climate crisis, whereas the truth is that the cost of living crisis is largely caused by the climate crisis. And the climate crisis has barely even begun.
The consequences of this madness is the rise of right-wing wannabe despots- like Trump and Dutton – who offer simple sounding solutions that are actually stupid and even verge on being suicidal.
And they are being aided and abetted by weak opponents who are apparently too scared to tell even their own rusted-on supporters the truth.
It’s not likely to end well.
If it were the start of the primaries, there are several swing state governors that, paired up, would be solid tickets. Obtaining name recognition now, especially if Trump pulls out of future debates (which he would do) will be hard work.
I wonder what Manchin is doing. Does this open up for further confusion by encouraging a serious third party entrant like him? Manchin/Cheney ticket? Jeepers. Too much coffee. Not enough whisky.
LB
Yes, I think you said before that the limiting of genuine primaries by the Democrats for sitting Presidents has given us the current dilemma.
Jimmy Carter was the last encumbent to be primaried, and even though he got through, he lost the election. So maybe they are just gun shy of doing it again?
timbo – fortune favours the brave?
AnteMeridian and everyone else
Not sure if these are to your taste but I think worth a listen/watch:
https://youtu.be/HgGhhnQB1gw
https://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4
https://youtu.be/HPdHkHslFIU
Harry Hindsight:
Harris should have taken the Breyer Supreme Court vacancy and a veep lined up who was ready to go if needed.
Always important to have a plan B.
What’s Labor’s plan B for Albo?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 10:08 am
Sandman
1400 words
I have written longer university essays, which I think were equally as unread.
=======================================================
The idea that you counted every word but didn’t read them. Is what amuses me.
Quote: : “I don’t object to the concept of a deity, but I’m baffled by the notion of one that takes attendance.”
Sprocket
The problem with the 1924 Democrat convention was that the two leading candidates were intolerable for different sections of the party
The South favoured John McAdoo who was most likely a member of the KKK and was certainly happy to have their support and the North wanted Al Smith a Catholic (Shock, horror, they weren’t ready for that for another 36 years).
In the end after 103 ballots John Davis got up as the compromise after initially receiving less than 5% of the delegate votes.
The reason why incumbent presidents rarely get serious primary challengers is because they know it’s quixotic and they will get a big share of the blame if the president loses re-election. It’s easier to just let the President run again unchallenged because, either way, they won’t be the nominee next time (unless it’s Trump) and they can run when the seat is open and they have a shot, without looking like a spoiler.
The only modern challenger against an incumbent I can think of against an incumbent who lost but went on to be politically successful is Ronald Reagan against Gerald Ford in 1976. But that was an exceptional circumstance: Ford had never been nominated by his party’s voters, nor elected in general, on either end of the Republican ticket. He was appointed VP via the 25th amendment and became president via Nixon’s resignation, so he was hardly “their guy” and Reagan also rode on the back of an ideological revolution of sorts – the increasingly conservative party membership rising up against the more moderate establishment.
Also worth noting that election wasn’t that long after nominations were still decided on the convention floor, so it wasn’t that controversial for an incumbent to have a fight.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Harry Hindsight:
Harris should have taken the Breyer Supreme Court vacancy and a veep lined up who was ready to go if needed.
Always important to have a plan B.
What’s Labor’s plan B for Albo?
================================
Lars – Albo’s not getting replaced. He’s from the socialist left faction which has the numbers. If anything, it would be someone from the left, but it’s not going to happen. Bill doesn’t stand a chance if that’s who you are alluding to.
Oh no, I read them but I am no better informed.
P1:
And how exactly can you justify the absolutely farcical claim that the climate crisis is the cause of the basic economic problem called increased cost of living?
Oh that’s right, by making broad and insubstantial hard to reprove claims that don’t prove much but spread smoke.
HaveAchat
Not to mine, but always happy to see what others enjoy.
It was actually 1397 words. I did a word count, though I’m not actually sure why I did.
Gosh, i must be losing it. Catch up again this evening.
A potential Trump VP pick?
https://x.com/antifaoperative/status/1807202731750199357
Entropy @ #3086 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 1:21 pm
Hey, you know it’s pretty easy to do a word count when it’s typed on a screen, right? OC doesn’t have to sit there counting each word to know the word count. There are tools in most text software that instantly do it.
Badthinker
“Barring a repeat of the 2020 Steal”
Ah yes, that thing that didn’t happen. That thing over which there were some 60 court cases, often presented to judges appointed by Trump himself, all dismissed due to the absence of evidence
nadia88says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 2:03 pm
It was actually 1397 words. I did a word count, though I’m not actually sure why I did.
Gosh, i must be losing it. Catch up again this evening.
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In defence of OC’s number. There was a lot of hyphenated words in there and numbers. Which would be open to interpretation of what constitutes a word. Is “soft-shoe” one or two words? Even “Covid-19”?
Parties like other organisations have succession plans.
Good organisations update their succession plans for prudent contingencies.
Biden is exhibit A for poor succession planning.
It’s not unreasonable to ask what’s Labor’s for Albo. (Sprocket pls don’t jump in and say Albo will retire as PM in 2032 is the succession plan).
Yeah, we’re almost at the point of the announcement of Trump’s running mate. The convention is just a bit over two weeks away, so it’ll be known by then. Although, he could technically do it at the convention, I expect it will happen before then.
Wouldn’t surprise me that, if they had an announcement planned this week, they delay it a bit to avoid stealing oxygen from the current issues Biden has.
Biden is exhibit A for poor succession planning.
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That statement cannot be argued against.
But really, what structure exists in which to institute such a plan in the US political system?