Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
Player One:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 5:07 pm
Well said.
The groupthink that operates on Poll Bludger at times does my head in, for example yesterday’s unanimous view that the debate apparently wasn’t all that bad for Biden and he’ll defeat Trump in November – this from the same people who reckoned the Yes case would win the Voice Referendum, or Labor would win the 2019 election.
One thing she didn’t explain is how the Australian Senate passing a motion to recognise a two state solution in the Middle East helps those 40,000 dying Palestinians she referenced this morning.
It is ALP policy to recognise a two state solution. She could’ve held her convictions, expressing them boldly and loudly within the Caucus (the appropriate place for it), and toed the party line in the Senate. She would’ve kept her position in Caucus where she had the opportunity to influence debate and decisions in ways that the government could prosecute on the international stage.
Alas she has fallen for a Greens stunt, which has led to where we are now. She is voiceless within the government, and headed towards the cross bench. A much worse outcome if she is genuine about influencing what happens in Palestine because she loses her line to the PM and the FM.
Golf clap to the Greens for engineering this for rank political opportunism. And yet another reason why I no longer consider the Greens fit for the business of parliament. They are children trying to play in the adult sandpit, and failing.
I’m not saying she shouldn’t face a price for crossing the floor. I’m saying the people saying she’s been hoodwinked are ridiculous.
Hi Kirsdarke
Hope things are getting better. Black Dog is a bastard.
We may have crossed paths; in 2010 I started the Wiki pages for NSW state elections for the 1930s -60s
So, has Payman been suspended because she voted against an amendment demanded by the Greens that Labor didn’t really want but voted for anyway because the Coalition wouldn’t?
Kirsdarke:
All the best to you and looking forward to you dropping by periodically.
Too right player 1.
Kirk, you wanna take a guess at how round 2 will go?
David Rowe!!!
Hey, maybe Payman voted for it because she believed in it… crazy right
Labor is alienating itself from large sections of Australia’s population growth areas.
@Oakeshott Country
Thanks. Ah, possibly not, I only really started editing in 2011, mainly because I was annoyed that the Victorian electorate pages hadn’t been updated for the 2010 election, so I resolved to do them myself, then when I learned how to do that I did the same for the 2006, 2002 and 1999 elections, and thus it became a deeply involved hobby of mine, to the point that I’d take train trips to the State Library of Victoria to scan the books they had there on historical elections in my spare time.
Mavis I always ask myself What would Proust have said. It really helps.
Confessions @ #3203 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:16 pm
Those fiendishly clever Green bastards!
@Lordbain
I think the Principalists have an advantage, because the main other candidate that was knocked out in Round 1 was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also aligned with the Principalists, so most of the 14% of the vote that went his way will probably go to Jalili.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_presidential_election
It really gives me the sh1ts that middle east goings on and their religious undertones have such an effect on our politics and society.
Shouldn’t that stuff be a conscience vote issue anyway, considering how important it is to some people? Abortion votes and LGBT+ votes often are. Or is it only when the RWers in the party are the minority on an issue that it becomes important to the minority to express their conscience?
Kirk, that sounds right. Would suspect the principalists arnt exactly hurt by the blowback re the nuclear deal back and forth.
BK, it was fun when Australia was influenced by European views on protestants and catholics
Kirsdrake
For NSW we were very lucky. Antony Green had been commissioned by the Parliament to produce a compendium of the election results, which is online.
BK @ #3217 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:25 pm
Me too. The protests happen every weekend in Sydney, disrupting traffic, public transport and diverting police resources unnecessarily when as we’ve seen, need to be deployed to domestic violence – actual issues impacting people.
The actions of these Palestinian protesters are changing no minds. Netanyahu nor Hamas are looking at Australians occupying university campuses or protesting every weekend and reconsidering their positions. So what is this for other than grandstanding and ‘look at me!’ social media images.
Democracy Sausage @ #3202 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 4:45 pm
In what universe was this place unanimous that the debate wasn’t bad for Biden and certain he will defeat Trump in November? I think it’s fair to say not only was that not the unanimous view but I daresay the majority of posters (including some rusted-on Labor voters) were actually posting the opposite.
BK, it was fun when Australia was influenced by European views on protestants and catholics
______
Too bloody right!
To be fair Wat, the consensus that emerged on here was Biden was toast, but early on there was quite a few touting the “he had a cold”, “he was overbriefed”, and even “it was a cunning stunt to lure Trump into a false sense of security” lines.
I think that our politics would be better if our political parties could agree on a set of core principles but allow their members a degree latitude in how they vote on specific pieces of legislation.
“In what universe…..”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQJnJCpwdfQ
Except what was proposed was not contrary to the Labor or the Coalition positions.
I’m all for conscience votes for these kinds of tricky issues, but given those circumstances, why would you need a conscience vote for a motion of that nature?
@Oakeshott Country
Yeah, Antony Green’s data has been very helpful for NSW elections when I was doing the detailed results for those.
Also Adam Carr (“Psephos”) has compiled a database for all Victorian and Queensland state elections.
There’s also a database up for Tasmanian elections, and downloadable papers for SA state elections, so the only ones I really needed to do were WA (which I have completed since I scanned a copy of David Black and Valerie Prescott’s book, I just need to sort out candidate link pages) and NT.
Eventually I’m hoping to do more deep research on prominent state politicians themselves, some pages on them are disappointingly short and have a lot of room for improvement.
Democracy Sausage while I agree there is an element of groupthink on PB at times I disagree that was the case yesterday regarding Biden. There was a mix of views with an arguable majority wanting Biden to stand aside.
Wat:
Yeah, there were what – two? – people here suggesting the debate wasn’t anything to worry about? Even otherwise hardcore Biden fans were acknowledging what a disaster it was.
Yeh, because protesting never works. Seriously it’s exhausting how some people here clutch their pearls and complain about protests as if it breaks the decorum of good manner politics… also I would argue gaza is less religious and more… you know, being against civilians being killed en mass in a imperial land grab.
Steve777 at 5:32 pm
I think that our politics would be better if our political parties could agree on a set of core principles but allow their members a degree latitude in how they vote on specific pieces of legislation.
L/NP does allow that, except for Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet.
Labor could adopt L/NP Rules.
Except Labor politics is built around Hunting With The Hounds while pretending to Run With The Foxes, AKA, Lying.
Wat Tyler @ #3221 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:25 pm
The SSM votes weren’t conscience votes, as Penny Wong pointed out. Not to mention, the same went the other way for SSM, with the devout Catholics who may have been personally against it, voting for it ultimately when the platform changed.
Asha @ #3233 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:41 pm
Exactly. Anyone who tries to characterise it any other way is lying.
Confessions @ #3230 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:35 pm
The Greens worded their proposal specifically so they could wedge Payman. It worked. I echo Graham Perrett’s assessment of Adam Bandt.
Looks like we have a groupthink consensus that we didn’t have a groupthink consensus
Good point, C@t and something I’d overlooked.
Urgh, the wording was a simple statement about immediate recognition. A statement in line with over 100 plus other sovereign states. How is this some sort of green plot…
Someone brought up a while ago Bridget Archer as a comparison to Fatima Payman. There are different Liberal party rules regarding crossing the floor, but it backfires in voter terms.
Here’s what Johnno, the other Bridget, and what me and the other remaining Bass Liberal voters think about our incumbent member: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-30/bridget-mckenzie-has-referred-to-her-coalition/103913548
A good 20 second laugh for you all.
davidwh @ #3235 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:17 pm
I don’t agree to that.
There is always one Wat. 🙂
She wouldn’t have been vulnerable to being wedged if she remembered the power of unity and collective, something those unions she claims to have on her side preach daily to their membership.
It likely would’ve sent a more powerful message for her to stare down the Greens knowing her position in the Caucus gave her a direct line to the PM and FM and the influence she could have on decisions that actually matter on the world stage.
Alas, she was spooked by a cheap Greens stunt that had zero to do with dying Palestinians.
Looks like we have a groupthink consensus that we didn’t have a groupthink consensus
—————————————–
Quick! Close it down, bottle it, bury it…….. and run!
Democracy Sausage @ #3202 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 5:15 pm
That looks a little like confirmation bias cause I saw, and posted, just as many opposite views, ie Biden is pretty much cooked, and so are the Dems unless they do something radical (Which I am going out on a limb and saying the possible wont). {I will shout loudly from the tree tops if I got that wrong}
Yes, the senator who spent her youth growing up in Afghanistan, fleeing to Pakistan before coming to Australia, running in political circles and being elected as a young Muslim women proud of her heritage… was spooked by the greens. Jesus christ
Greens voters preference Labor around 80% of the time , I believe.
Federal parliament is full of Labor politicians elected on Greens preferences.
They’re more friends than enemies in my opinion.
Was the 2019 Labor loss really foreseeable? I recall them leading in every poll for months leading up to it
Pro Palestinian protestors attacked and defaced the Australian War Memorial again today. OK with that are you Lordbain ?
Damo, that’s not really accepted by some people here… they argue that the greens support the liberals and actually want to destroy Labor at every turn. And that’s not getting started on those who argue the greens are secret trots. You’ll also find that when the rolls reversed, less then 80 percent of Labor preferences flow to the libs, suggesting that a larger portion of Labor voters prefer Labor over the greens then vice versa. But again, certain groups here just can’t accept that
Sandman, I could rant for hours on my view of that abomination… but short answer, yeh pretty much.
Insert argument about centrist defence of property over rights and lives of actual living breathing humans here
Sandman if I were to rank my grievances, seeing a defaced memorial would come in somewhere below seeing a child with their skull caved in from a bomb blast