Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

Comments Page 66 of 68
1 … 65 66 67 68

  4. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 5:22 pm
    Mavis I always ask myself What would Proust have said. It really helps.
    ====================================================

    Lars just reminded me of “Little Miss Sunshine”.

    Frank: [recounting his unrequited love for his student] He fell in love with another man,a colleague of mine; Larry Sugarman.
    Sheryl: Who’s Larry Sugarman?
    Frank: Probably the second highest regarded Proust scholar in th US.
    Richard: Who’s number 1?
    Frank: That would be me Rich.
    Richard: Really?

  6. C@tmomma:

    The SSM votes weren’t conscience votes, as Penny Wong pointed out. Not to mention, the same went the other way for SSM, with the devout Catholics who may have been personally against it, voting for it ultimately when the platform changed.

    Helen Polley and Chris Ketter voted against the Marriage Equality bill in the Senate.

  11. caf @ #3260 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    C@tmomma:

    The SSM votes weren’t conscience votes, as Penny Wong pointed out. Not to mention, the same went the other way for SSM, with the devout Catholics who may have been personally against it, voting for it ultimately when the platform changed.

    Helen Polley and Chris Ketter voted against the Marriage Equality bill in the Senate.

    And Deborah O’Neill and Don Farrell voted for it.

  12. Nah, she’s a drunk.
    __________
    On Barnaby Joyce, he crossed the floor as a backbencher, which is allowed.
    Had he done that as a Minister, that would’ve been the end of his [Ministerial] career.

  14. “On Barnaby Joyce, he crossed the floor as a backbencher, which is allowed.
    Had he done that as a Minister, that would’ve been the end of his [Ministerial] career.”

    Joyce’s ministerial career has ended more times than Nellie Melba had encores.

  18. Joyce’s ministerial career has ended more times than Nellie Melba had encores.
    Not for crossing the floor though.
    That’s final.

  27. I’d rather be a rad drinker than a bad thinker.

    (Meaning that facetiously, of course. I don’t want to encourage problem drinking and I respect sobriety.)

  29. It seems as though the disinformation campaign against Kamala Harris, IF Joe Biden drops out of the race for POTUS, has begun.

  30. That’s right, never mind the party rules and guidelines and the obvious consequences, an MP voting for something which proves half of two craps should be respected, even though she knew what would happen.

  33. Well, with bated breath I am waiting for the prediction made some weeks ago that an election would be called on August 3 or wherever ………….

  34. Rex, but its just completely impractical for Labor to make this move… I mean, we arnt some geopolitical juggernaut like Ireland.

  35. here’s a scenario i read on the trappings.

    1/ Biden resigns, citing whatever reason.
    2/ Harris declares she’s going to Focus on Running the Country.
    3/ Harris gets boasting rights to (1) 1st female president & (2) 1st black female president.
    4/ Dems get to pick brand new candidates.

  36. Rex….Every decision made by Labor and mentioned by you here has been a potential disaster for as long as you have been coming here.
    The Senator crossing the floor is just one more thing Labor has to deal with when they take on board those who want to belong to a unified party but still feel that have the freedom to express a different point of view, while still espousing the ideals of Labor.
    Not sure the good Senator can have it both ways.
    She says she wants to support Labor but wants the freedom to go it alone on here Palestinian views. She is to be admired for holding to her views but whether she can, at the same time, hold unity with Labor only she can answer.
    I doubt whether the Greens would be a direction for her to go…..Maybe she should just resign from parliament?

  37. Kamala Harris does seem to quite be unpopular, although it’s not obvious why. She’s probably getting the Julia Gillard treatment from the Republicans and also the USA’s right-wing media, although that is far less dominant than ours. Then there’s sexism and racism, rife among MAGA Republicans.

  38. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 6:50 pm
    Didn’t you eschew the Bible recently?
    Now you’re a bible basher, when it suits.
    =============================================

    Matthew 7:1.

  40. Nicholas….
    You have not got a clue as to whether the “vast majority of Australians” would support the views of the errant Senator. I would lay money the majority of voters would not even know who she is and care even less.
    The situation in this horrible war has no moral high ground for either side. In any event, what influence do you really think – other than expressing outrage – can Australia have on this diabolical conflict?
    The whole mess is not an “either/or” situation and those who simplify the matter to this are deluded.

  41. Reminder number 600million… the more countries acknowledge palestine, the more pressure it puts on the big players. This is part of the same action behind pretty much every geopolitical movement of the last century. It’s recognition, then it’s boycotts, then it wins.

    Australia is historically seen as a Middle power that was actually once quite influential. Shame we burned that with hypocritical actions…

  42. Rex Douglas @ #3290 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 7:33 pm

    Huge blowback is coming if the ALP sacks Senator Fatima Payman for expressly supporting the ALP’s national policy platform.Read it for yourself. P132 https://t.co/CCPia4QBpg pic.twitter.com/m1dY2CstHK— Hugh Riminton (@hughriminton) June 30, 2024

    This is an own goal from the Labor political party.

    Sorry, but that policy does not say that the Australian government must recognise Palestine as a state now.

  43. ”Well, with bated breath I am waiting for the prediction made some weeks ago that an election would be called on August 3 or wherever ………….”

    We’ve got until Tuesday.

    I rate the probability of an August 3 election as being approximately equal to that of Peter Dutton disowning nuclear power and embracing renewables.

  44. alfred venison @ #3293 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 7:36 pm

    here’s a scenario i read on the trappings.

    1/ Biden resigns, citing whatever reason.
    2/ Harris declares she’s going to Focus on Running the Country.
    3/ Harris gets boasting rights to (1) 1st female president & (2) 1st black female president.
    4/ Dems get to pick brand new candidates.

    Sounds plausible. Probably not going to happen from what I’ve read.

  45. The situation with Payman is disappointing.

    It seemed very much like Payman was pointedly frozen out after her initial speech. If you’re asking people to fundamentally vote against things they believe in that are, for them, very close to home in the party’s interests – it sure helps if, as the party did with Penny Wong, Josh Burns and others, they support them through it.

    The initial statement after Payman crossed the floor was very gracious and showed her some respect, but everything after that seemed like it was back to icing her out.

    If Payman had received the same treatment Josh Burns got for lashing party policy in the first instance instead of being iced out, I don’t believe for a second that we would be here now. It reeked of double standards.

  46. Lordbain says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 5:22 pm
    “Hey, maybe Payman voted for it because she believed in it… crazy right”

    Yes. Crazy.
    You can argue (behind doors) that a massacre was a massacre, but if outvoted you must salute the flag and vote to say it wasn’t.

    Ethical integrity!!??

  47. I’ve always despised Harris for her politics, going all the way back to when she was a DA, but it’s hard to argue at this point that the US would be less rooted if she was allowed to take over as the Democratic nominee.

    The US has got to break this habit of being willing to throw democracy off the cliff because an elderly, powerful, figure who has otherwise been a significantly positive figure can’t admit that they’re past it and put their ego above the future of the country.

    Ginsburg’s refusal to retire gave Trump the Supreme Court, Feinstein’s refusal to retire (and their failure to sack her from the Judiciary Committee when she was patently senile) hampered their abiity to respond to the mess Ginsburg caused, and now Biden seems to be going to go for the trifecta and do American democracy in once and for all.

  49. Rebecca….Not so sure about double standards. If one aspires to becoming a Senator for Labor, there are certain rules which, at the point of standing for Labor, must surely be understood? Sure, if you don’t like a rule, try to get it changed as part of new policy. However, to accept the nomination for Labor and all that it implies, and then take a stand (no matter how close to one’s heart) and thereby claim double standard is a bit rich don’t you think? My observation is the PM is doing his best to keep the good Senator on side as part of good politics for Labor and for keeping a potentially good Senator in the Labor camp.

Comments Page 66 of 68
1 … 65 66 67 68

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *