Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

Comments Page 67 of 68
1 66 67 68
  1. Tricot: This ignores that Josh Burns was not similarly iced out for lashing government policy on the same issue. Their treatment was poles apart.

  2. After President Joe Biden’s widely panned debate performance against former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as perhaps the president’s most forceful advocate.
    Harris, who has enjoyed a strong governing relationship with Biden, is seen by many as a top successor to the president should he exit the presidential race.
    But some of Harris’ allies are frustrated that Democratic figures like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are being touted more frequently than the vice president as potential Biden replacements in many circles, according to Politico.
    “The fact that people keep coming back to this is so offensive to so many of us,” an unnamed Harris ally told the publication. “They still don’t get that the message you’re saying to people, to this Democratic Party, is, we prefer a white person.”
    Another ally told Politico: “If they think they are going to get through South Carolina bashing an effective and qualified Black woman vice president — their instincts are as bad as I thought they were.”
    https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-biden-debate-newsom-whitmer-reaction-2024-6

  3. Nicholas, you’re not allowed to assert that Israel has murdered 50,000 civilians in Gaza, no matter how cutely you go about it, because it simply isn’t true. Take a couple of weeks off please.

  4. Here’s the double standard angle.

    We want voting group A to vote for us, so we will have members for voting group a in the party.

    When this member of voter group a votes in a way based on the views of voter group a, and the party isn’t happy… well, what was the point of claiming to support voter group a.

    Unless someone wants to argue that supporting a 2 state solution (or the actual 1 state secular approach combination that others have suggested) is directly against another ethnic group, which is wrong but let’s not get into that piss fight again plz

  5. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8:01 pm
    Payman – there goes the Western Sydney Muslim vote.
    ================================================

    Where do you see it going? Certainly not to Duttin and the LNP who have an extreme pro-Israel stance.

    Though it could be good news for Dai Le? Though i’m not really up with her stance on this issue.

  6. Paul Bongiorno with chapter and verse on the matter:

    In a surprisingly busy start to the parliamentary week, on the day news broke of the Assange plea deal there was also a miscalculation by the Greens and the Coalition in the Senate.

    The Greens proposed a simple motion on “the need for the Senate to recognise the state of Palestine”. It was a purposefully loaded device, designed to have Western Australian Labor senator Fatima Payman stand by her heartfelt response to the Palestinian death toll in Gaza and cross the floor. In putting the motion, the Greens were counting on Payman voting with them in defiance of Labor rules and forcing her expulsion from the parliamentary party.

    Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, attempted to head off the crunch by moving an amendment, making recognition part of the peace process and not consequent to it. The Greens and the Coalition voted that down. A subsequent motion, insisting any recognition happen only after a number of conditions were met, was also voted down, this time by the Greens and the Labor Party.

    Payman, along with independent Senator David Pocock, joined the Greens in voting for the original motion. She said she crossed the floor to walk with “the 40,000 killed, for the hungry and scared boys and girls, who now walk alone without their parents, and for the brave men and women who have to walk alone without their children”.

    “I walked for humanity. I am proud of what I did today, and I am bitterly disappointed that my colleagues do not feel the same way.”

    Greens leader Adam Bandt said the young senator had set a benchmark for other Labor politicians, particularly in the four seats the Greens are eyeing to take from Labor.

    Among those was Labor MP Graham Perrett, whose southern Brisbane seat of Moreton has a significant number of Muslim and Arab voters. He told The Saturday Paper, “Bandt is an opportunist, mercenary, vote-harvesting stunt-master, and he can go fuck himself.”

    The Prime Minister’s Office noted Senator Payman maintained strong Labor values and that expulsion was not mandated under the rules. It also noted the government supported the recognition of Palestine as part of the process towards a two-state solution.

    The following day, Dutton asked Albanese if he would show the same strength as his predecessor Bob Hawke and suspend the Afghan-born senator. Albanese said he could not understand why the Greens and the opposition had not supported Wong’s amendments, but he revealed he had spoken to Payman and suspended her from caucus for a week.

    This outcome disappointed some Labor MPs, given the “special circumstances” of Payman’s defiance and their view that it was both admired and supported by others in the caucus and more broadly.

    Either way, the Greens and opposition did not get the scalp they were cynically seeking. Albanese walked away with big wins on climate and the freedom, after more than a decade, of Julian Assange.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/06/29/week-wins-albanese

    I guess The Greens-Liberal-Nationals coalition will try the same stunt this week.

  7. And here goes Cat with the greens/coalition alliance bs again… jesus, does anyone outside your group buy that shit?

  8. Holdenhillbilly: That unnamed Harris ally is an idiot.

    Whitmer and Newsom would be vastly stronger general election candidates than Harris by any reasonable measure. They’re better, savvier campaigners on every level.

    It’s a similar problem to that with Clinton, in that people turn a blind eye to someone’s weaknesses as a candidate because they’d shatter a few firsts.

    She’s still better than Biden right now, if that’s the best they can do – but that’s the extent of it.

  9. Whitmers an unknown, but Newsom is probably only slightly better then Biden… his brand is poison where it counts

  10. Rebecca @ #3318 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 8:12 pm

    Holdenhillbilly: That unnamed Harris ally is an idiot.

    Whitmer and Newsom would be vastly stronger general election candidates than Harris by any reasonable measure. They’re better, savvier campaigners on every level.

    It’s a similar problem to that with Clinton, in that people turn a blind eye to someone’s weaknesses as a candidate because they’d shatter a few firsts.

    She’s still better than Biden right now, if that’s the best they can do – but that’s the extent of it.

    They’re also both White. Probably has something to do with it. 😐

  11. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said claims that ‘bots’ generated by foreign state agents are interfering with the UK’s general election are “cobblers”.
    Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Farage said “don’t talk cobblers” when Mr Phillips asked him if “probably Russian-inspired” bots were interfering with the election.
    Earlier, Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, said he had “grave concerns” that alleged Russian bots were boosting Reform UK. Mr Dowden was responding to claims by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that it had uncovered a suspected Russian influence operation

  12. That $900 payment was all that got Labor Minority Government in 2010.
    Can the tax cuts and Minimum Wage rise outlast the mass sackings?
    It will be a close run thing.

  13. William and Nicholas

    Latest figures…

    United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the new Israeli offensive in Shujayea has forced the displacement of “at least 60,000” residents. …

    …On Saturday, Gaza’s Ministry of Health said at least 37,834 people have been killed and 86,858 wounded in Israel’s war on Gaza since October 7.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/29/israeli-forces-intensify-attacks-in-shujayea-as-gaza-death-toll-rises

  14. We want voting group A to vote for us, so we will have members for voting group a in the party.

    When this member of voter group a votes in a way based on the views of voter group a, and the party isn’t happy… well, what was the point of claiming to support voter group a.

    I think a political party that acts in that manner is showing only a tokenistic interest in the demographic or political group in question. If they were serious about including that group in the party’s policy development processes they would provide MPs and Senators with a high degree of latitude on matters such as crossing the floor.

  15. Latest YouGov UK voting intention (25-27 June 2024). Changes from 24/25 June.
    Lab: 37% (+1)
    Con: 20% (+2 )
    Reform UK: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 13% (-2)
    Green: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

  16. ”Did the Labor political party vote against the Greens motion just because it was a Greens motion ..?”

    Labor voted against the motion because it considered that it was not yet appropriate to recognise a Palestinian State.

  17. Seems Payman has been hung out to dry all because the Labor political party wants to keep onside with the US.

  18. C@tmomma: “Because October 7” meaning an MP of one faith can speak out against party policy because civilians of his faith were killed, but that it’s fine for an MP of a different faith to get iced for speaking out against party policy because civilians of her faith were killed is getting precariously close to just saying the quiet part out loud that you think innocent civilian lives of one faith are worth more than another.

  19. My sympathies in the middle east are predominantly with the Palestinian people, as I suspect is the case with many here & elsewhere. Which is why I consider it a pity that Ireland’s recognition of a Palestinian state has done about a tenth of absolutely fucking nothing to ease the situation there. Which leads me to wonder whether the energies of local political parties might not be better spent in pursuit of other solutions.

  20. Steve777says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8:03 pm
    Tax cuts and minimum wage rise commence tomorrow.
    _____________________
    Both mine will be going straight towards my energy bills.
    Will still be behind from where I was under the Coalition.

  21. I have no idea why the ABC is exposing Russian trolls supporting Reform in the UK. A very quick glance at twitter, and basically anyone can see that. Twitter (or X) is just infested with bots and trolls since the Moron Musk took over.

  22. If you think things will get better with the removal of Netanyahu, please look at the polls of the average Israelis review with regards to a 2 state solution. Also think how many times people have counted Netanyahu down and out… and sure, just because you call someone a stunt doesn’t it so. Hell, I’m going to start calling the NACC a stunt, because its done absolutely nothing, and there’s now an investigation as to why its made the choices it has. Shame Labor didn’t work with the cross bench to make it… you know, the institution the Australian people wanted

  23. Rex – Payman has been hung out to dry because she did something and was told not to do it again, but then goes on TV and makes a statement saying she would do it again. Whether on not she is out there forever is probably up to her to decide now.

    It has certainly made the chance of Double dissolution in the post next election world that little bit more likely.

  24. The Middle East is where progressive politics in Australia goes when it doesn’t want an actual future in shaping THIS country.

  25. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8:49 pm
    I have no idea why the ABC is exposing Russian trolls supporting Reform in the UK. A very quick glance at twitter, and basically anyone can see that. Twitter (or X) is just infested with bots and trolls since the Moron Musk took over.
    ===================================================

    I think the ABC was just reporting what UK media has already reported though.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-29/uk-election-pro-russian-facebook-pages-coordinating/104038246

    Though the ABC report seems to be all about “Meta”. Yet the earlier BBC reports says they are across all social media. With more emphasis on “X’.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1335nj316lo

  26. 25.9% Midday turn out in France. Compare to 18.9% last time at Midday. So turnout is up.

    Voting goes until 7.30 PM. (4.30 AEST)

  27. Lurking after having a few.

    Trying hard not to comment re Fatima Payman (on her side), or for that matter anything.

    Too much stuff going on around the world that is basically upsetting.

    Most of you guys have put on a good show today.

    That is why Pollbludger needs to be supported.

    I mean how many of you were lost the weekend Pollbludger went down?

    I was for one, I’ll own that!

    Anyway, cheers all you good people and keep sending your kind donations Williams way!

  28. Lordbainsays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:09 pm
    Fairman, this is going to be very interesting
    =========================================
    Will be Lordbain. PM Jordan Bardella looms, although they’ve said they won’t form gov’t unless they get an outright majority. Regardless, a big RN rump in the new parliament should result.
    Speaking of looming – where the heck is newspoll.

  29. Rex

    I agree with B S Fairman on the reasons for Paxman being expelled from Caucus.

    That being said, I also increasingly sympathise with the Palestinian cause. Hamas and Hezbolah are both terrorist movements, but these days I suspect the Israeli army is committing more war crimes than either.

    If Paxman is shrewd, she might only need to wait a few months and, depending on the outcome in US politics, policy might change in her direction.

  30. Looks like it will be a RN majority government in France, as they will be in a runoff with the Left rather than the Centre.

    I’m waiting for Newspoll with baited breath. Although for the world who runs Australia matters little as long as Trump is president.

  31. We are told that the Palestinian people in Gaza have no power over Hamas and can’t stop Hamas from keeping the hostages. Hamas runs Gaza.

    Then they claim they support a two State solution. Hamas is completely opposed to a two state solution. Therefore, a two state solution will not happen. It is completely illogical to hold the two positions. How can a two state solution occur when Hamas retains total control and a ceasefire is being demanded, which will only keep them in power.

  32. Taylormade @ #3338 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 8:45 pm

    Steve777says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8:03 pm
    Tax cuts and minimum wage rise commence tomorrow.
    _____________________
    Both mine will be going straight towards my energy bills.
    Will still be behind from where I was under the Coalition.

    You’re also going to be getting Energy bill relief. 🙂

  33. ajm – Oh yes, I forgot Daylight savings over there.

    But my croissants wouldn’t be deliver until later….

  34. What happens to Macron if he gets his arse handed to him overnight and next Sunday?

    I note that the same forces that ended Truss’ PMship are already saying a RN government would destroy French and EU financial markets.

  35. Lordbainsays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:22 pm
    Nadia, do we need to find you some polls to tied you over
    =============================================
    Perhaps. I would’ve thought there would have been a spasm of polls given the events of the past 3 weeks, but no they must be all on holidays or playing pacman or something.
    I’ve even started keeping an eye out on Ipsos, in case they might start polling again.
    It’s all getting quite sad. I really should find something else to focus attention on. Perhaps they’ve all just stopped polling because it’s getting too hard.

Comments Page 67 of 68
1 66 67 68

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *