Nuclear fallout (open thread)

Polling on nuclear energy from Resolve Strategic and Freshwater Strategy, the seat of Macnamara from RedBridge Group, and the relative merits of capitalism and socialism from YouGov, along with the usual weekly voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan.

Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:

• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.

• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.

• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.

• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,382 comments on “Nuclear fallout (open thread)”

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  1. Rebecca @ #3336 Sunday, June 30th, 2024 – 8:40 pm

    C@tmomma: “Because October 7” meaning an MP of one faith can speak out against party policy because civilians of his faith were killed, but that it’s fine for an MP of a different faith to get iced for speaking out against party policy because civilians of her faith were killed is getting precariously close to just saying the quiet part out loud that you think innocent civilian lives of one faith are worth more than another.

    Absolute garbage. Still, what I expect from someone who is an expert on finding ways to twist what someone says, or what the government does, to suit their pov.

    To be brutally honest, Rebecca, those ~40000 Palestinians that are no longer alive today would still be walking the streets of Gaza if Hamas hadn’t planned and executed the October 7 attack on Israel. But you’re right, too many innocent Palestinians have been killed as a result.

  5. I reckon William is hanging out for some polling so he can start a new thread – this one’s got over 3350 comments!


  6. FUBAR says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:29 pm

    What happens to Macron if he gets his arse handed to him overnight and next Sunday?

    Macron will still be president.

  7. nadia88,
    Maybe you should buy a game of Pacman to while away the time? 😉

    Newspoll will be along soon. It’s not usually released until after 9.30pm.

  9. Rebecca:

    C@tmomma: “Because October 7” meaning an MP of one faith can speak out against party policy because civilians of his faith were killed, but that it’s fine for an MP of a different faith to get iced for speaking out against party policy because civilians of her faith were killed is getting precariously close to just saying the quiet part out loud that you think innocent civilian lives of one faith are worth more than another.

    Well said.

  11. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    What happens to Macron if he gets his arse handed to him overnight and next Sunday?

    I note that the same forces that ended Truss’ PMship are already saying a RN government would destroy French and EU financial markets.
    ==================================================

    I thought UK public opinion ended Truss’ PMship? Her polling figures were certainly dismal. Though Sunak’s recently aren’t any better.

    Note: i don’t believe UK public opinion is something they care about in France though.

  12. Why did Penny Wong and the Labor leadership feel the need to amend the Greens motion? Did it even get to caucus? I just would have thought, for it being a stunt of a motion, as it was according to close Greens watchers, it could have just sailed through to the keeper with little consequence?

    On this issue, Labor is lucky its compulsory preferential at a Federal level and the Liberals are hopelessly compromised. Could a third party candidate get up though on Liberals preferences in some seats now? Maybe not Greens. Is it enough of a single issue to drive electoral change in some seats where it might not be a Greens v Labor battle.

  13. Rebecca says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8:04 pm

    Burns did not cross the floor against the ALP. It’s not that difficult a concept to understand.

  14. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    What happens to Macron if he gets his arse handed to him overnight and next Sunday?
    ====================================
    He sits there like a shag on a rock until 2027.
    All he can do is block legislation that the RN (if they form gov’t) present to him for signing.
    And if he blocks legislation, well who will the public blame. Of course they’ll blame him.
    Doesn’t seem like much of a plan for the future. Will just be conflict.
    Not too sure what he was hoping to achieve by calling an early election


  17. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:32 pm

    Newspoll ALP 32 L-NP 36 Green 13 ON 7 others 12
    51-49 2PP.

    No movement worth a dam again.

  21. The Newspoll showed voters virtually evenly divided over Mr Dutton’s nuclear energy plan, following his nomination of seven regional sites around the country for nuclear plants to replace retiring coal-fired power plants beyond the mid-2030s.
    A total of 42 per cent of voters said they approved when asked their opinion of Mr Dutton’s plans to build nuclear reactors in Australia on seven sites of current and former coal-fired power stations before 2050, if elected.
    This compared to 45 per cent who said they disapproved of the plan, with 13 per cent of voters having yet to form an opinion. Women were the strongest ­opponents at just 32 per cent ­approving of the policy.
    The level of support was highest among Coalition voters at 69 per cent compared to 23 per cent of Labor voters and 19 per cent of Greens voters. There was a significant divide among men and women, with a majority of male voters backing the plan (54 per cent) but 51 per cent of female voters disapproving.

    Mr Albanese’s approval fell a point to 42 per cent while dissatisfaction with his performance rose three points to 53 per cent. This was the second highest level of dissatisfaction since he was elected.
    Mr Dutton’s approval rating fell a point to 38 per cent but those dissatisfied rose five points to 54 per cent.
    Mr Albanese’s net approval rating of minus 11 was two points higher than his worst result of minus 13 following the failed voice referendum. Mr Dutton’s net approval of minus 16 was also not as low as the minus 20 he recorded in September last year.

  24. Entropy says:
    Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:34 pm

    You have the comprehension skills of a tire iron, the logic skills of a kelpie on meth, and the debating skills of a lamp post.

    I’m being polite.

  26. I also truly have to laugh at all the champions of the free market all blaming the free market for what happened after the Truss budget, as if all these mean traders should have acted against their self-interest and bravely HODLed in order to protect the Tories from the consequences of their own action.

  27. The LNP primary above 36-37 was pretty short lived.

    I always used to think that if ALP + Green was 46% or above, then Labor was in front on TPP. Now with the large ON+ Others, its 45% or above.

    I suspect KB might get almost 52/48 off those primaries.

  28. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham

    #Newspoll 51-49 to ALP
    #Newspoll ALP 32 L-NP 36 Green 13 ON 7 others 12

    #Newspoll Albanese net -11 (42-53) worst this year
    Dutton net -16 (38-54) worst since October
    Better PM (skews to incumbents) Albanese leads 46-38 unchanged (= lowest lead of term)

  30. https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1807239275265884602, Kos Samaras on what a younger and more diverse Australia wants …

    https://t.co/i07f6cTE8L quoting YouGov, younger Australians seem to want more socialism, yet [Med Sea to the Euphrates River] ‘Tel Aviv … Albo’s’ gone to the centre and beyond, trying to appeal to those on the right, and so the major parties duopoly is down to about 2/ 3s of the PV

    https://x.com/sudharmapala/status/1807295879445086554, so here’s some [neither socialist, nor liberal] centrist, blue Libs lite held electorates by Muslim percentage of population

    I guess he/ they/ she got the messages from 1975 and 2019? May be 1996 or 2013 not so much?

    Note, the imagery, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fatima-payman-suspended-from-labor-after-crisis-talks-with-pm-over-palestine-20240630-p5jpux.html,

  31. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/06/30/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/comment-page-1/#comment-4313689

    Hmmm, rounding error.
    Indeed, centrist, blue Libs lite, ‘from the Med Sea to the Euphrates River … Albo’s’ gotta go.
    About a third of the electorate, kinda like the PV is with the gov, says the country is on the right track.
    Values, principles, risks/ threats, promises, policies, competencies, services.
    Be it governance (Ersatz fICAC/ CIC, campaign finance reform, useful FoI/ whistleblowers/ journos/ activists, VTP&E), powershift ($$Ns+), climate, inequality (JobGiver after JobKeeper but nothing on JobSeeker), health …
    Opportunity, cost of living, education, environment, healthcare, human rights, infrastructure (Comms, energy, housing, transport, water), public safety and security.
    After the 2025 Federal Election I’d like to see one of the major parties in minority fed gov, in alliance/ coalition with minor parties and independents.
    To actually bring some commonsense into pollyTICs and actually progress/ advance Australia fair, ending the cycles of damage limitation/ destruction.
    And of course the senate balanced the other way.

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