The fortnightly Essential Research poll continues to find little separating the two major parties on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, with the Coalition up a point on last time to 47% and Labor down two to 46%, with the remainder undecided. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 30% while the Coalition is up one to 33%, with the Greens down one to 12%, One Nation down one to 7%, others up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 1% and undecided up one to 7%.
The monthly personal ratings record a three-point drop in Anthony Albanese’s approval rating to 40% with disapproval up to 49%, his worst net result and disapproval result from this pollster so far. Peter Dutton is unchanged at 41% approval and 42% disapproval. There are also questions on the leaders’ attributes which find the biggest distinction between the two being a 74-26 split against the notion that Albanese is aggressive, compared with 50-50 for Dutton. No doubt relatedly, there is a 52-48 break in favour of Dutton as decisive – probably the most positive result for either out of eight qualities canvassed – which comes at 58-42 against for Albanese.
There are also bad signs for the government on a semi-regular national mood question, which finds a five-point increase on last month to 54% for those rating Australia as on the wrong track, with right track down four to 30%. However, a series of questions on the Coalition’s nuclear energy policy produces broadly negative results: 48% rate Dutton’s plan as “serious” compared with 52% for an alternative of “just an attempt to extend the life of gas and limit investment in large-scale renewables”, and 38% rate nuclear energy as the most expensive out of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels, up two since April, with renewables down five to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (steady), Coalition 36.5% (down half), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying release notes that a preference determination based on flows at the 2022 election rather than respondent allocation produces a lead to Labor of 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1708.
And the Democratic Polling Memo has been leaked… jesus christ its a fun read,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/biden-plummets-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-says
40% of Biden ‘20 voters now say he should end his campaign, compared to 45% who say he should stay in the race. This represents a significant shift in this metric from May, when Biden ‘20 voters were more firmly behind the President’s candidacy (25% step aside, 62% stay in the race).
○ Swing voters would prefer Biden leave the race by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.
In a multi-candidate ballot, Biden trails Trump by 7.3pp in the Electoral College tipping point
Its nice when the Left gets proven correct again, and all it cost us was a fascist US to deal with 🙂
Mostly Interested:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 8:33 am
Mavis @ #40 Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 8:26 am
If something is going to happen, I don’t think Newsom is the answer:
he’s too glib, carries some baggage, and wouldn’t go down well in the battleground states. Whitmer, on the other hand, would I think do well.
[‘Yep, even though my 5c is on Biden staying…’]
So is mine, but if the 6-point lead to Trump recorded in the CNN poll is replicated, Biden should consider passing the mantle. I think the decision should be his though.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 6:36 am
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton
Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.
Changes +/- 26-27 Jun
Westminster Voting Intention (28 June – 2 July):
Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
”
Although we don’t have sweepstakes on PB for UK elections, this is what I predicted about a month ago i.e.
Labour: 41-42
Tories: between 20 and 25
Reform: mid teens
Lib Dems: ~10
Greens: 5-6
SNP: 3
Rest others
Mostly Interested,
Roy Cooper must be a close observer of Donald Trump. See how he wears a red tie sometimes? The colour of the other mob. Just like Trump did during the court case. It must be some kind of subliminal signal that is advantageous in swing states. Or court cases. 🙂
C@tmomma:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 8:43 am
Thanks cat. I’ll watch it later. I’m off to the vet.
”
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 8:58 am
And the Democratic Polling Memo has been leaked… jesus christ its a fun read,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/biden-plummets-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-says
40% of Biden ‘20 voters now say he should end his campaign, compared to 45% who say he should stay in the race. This represents a significant shift in this metric from May, when Biden ‘20 voters were more firmly behind the President’s candidacy (25% step aside, 62% stay in the race).
○ Swing voters would prefer Biden leave the race by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.
In a multi-candidate ballot, Biden trails Trump by 7.3pp in the Electoral College tipping point
Its nice when the Left gets proven correct again, and all it cost us was a fascist US to deal with
”
Unfortunately, the fascist US is not good for AUKUS and Europe countries eith Russian and China breathing down their neckneck. These countries put all their eggs in US basket. They got so used to US being their benefator, they couldn’t see trees from forest.
And the fascist US said that these countries should pay up for NATO and won’t help them anymore.
”
rhwombatsays:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 6:43 am
Holdenhillbilly @ #NaN Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 6:34 am
Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Michelle Obama leading Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical match-up for the presidential race, the only Democratic candidate to lead against him.
Oh FFS. Let’s all “win the day” & pretend that reality is a fantasy football side that can run nuclear superpowers into the ground (e.g. the Fucking Tories). After November there are going to be a lot of guilty arseholes (Pom, French & Septic) buying places on submarines heading for Brazil Argentina.
”
Que?
Because Lordbain wants a Proto Fascist to lead the US. You know it makes sense. 😐
He certainly doesn’t want a former leader of the Labour Young Socialists and a Trotskyite leading the UK, that’s for sure.
Good for you Cat finding a new to haunt with your son. Must be a relief.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 7:23 am
I remember a few months ago how vehement some people were that trump was going to prison any second…
_____________________
A few months…
Victoria had him in jail 4 years ago and every day since.
Yes CAT, the reason the left has been warning about the weakness of Biden as a candidate (and Clinton, and the damage Obama was setting up for, and etc etc for the last few decades) is because we want a fascist world government… you know, the natural enemy of the left.
Fuck your full of shit.
And again, that was Starmer when he was young… remind me, what are Starmers current policies? Whats the Labour parties manifesto? Why would any socialist/leftist think Thatchers policies, especially her economic policies, are good.
News flash, it turns out that people can change their politics as they grow older, or when they sell out to the establishment… just look at Albo.
You are the definition of Dunning Kruger syndrome…
Sandman @ #NaN Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 9:18 am
Thanks, Sandman. It’s super cute as well. Though beginning the process of packing up isn’t. 😆
No wonder Labor hates the “Greens Political Party”. Those annoying people keep pointing out the bleeding obvious…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jul/03/australia-politics-live-anthony-albanese-fatima-payman-peter-dutton-question-time-supermarkets-labor-caucus?page=with:block-668488b88f08a83a9aeca8a0#block-668488b88f08a83a9aeca8a0
I like the bit about Labor putting its “foot on the accelerator and the brake at the same time”. So true. You can’t claim to have “real climate action” while also supporting fossil fuel subsidies. Nothing would make the energy transition happen faster – or cheaper – than a truly level playing field.
The real question meher – is the Labor Party happy with a meh outcome ?
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 7:12 am
So Biden is finally going to meet with party leaders but only after criticism over how his staff have handled this crisis, and after Democrat governors held their own meeting to discuss their concerns.
Biden’s senior aides since then have been furiously calling top Democratic leaders and donors, but Biden as of Tuesday morning had not spoken with such top party figures as Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). This relative silence has added to Democrats’ anxiety at a time when many have been looking for reassurance from the president.
On Monday, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, held a call with other Democratic governors to discuss Biden’s reelection campaign. Several participants expressed frustration that they had not heard personally from the president, according to a person familiar with the call, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private meeting.
It was those complaints that spurred the plans for Biden to meet with the Democratic governors.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/02/biden-to-meet-with-democratic-governors/
This crisis has been so poorly handled, all we can hope now is that Team Biden can right this ship and start demonstrating he can still be a competent president in his second term. Frankly it’s a big ask.
”
If not for South:Carolina Democratic US HOR James Clyburn, Biden would not have won South Carolina Primary in 2020, which later led Biden to win Democratic Primaries. Before SC primary, Biden was in doldrums in primaries.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/how-joe-biden-won-black-voters-and-big-push-james-clyburn/6358672002/
“Clyburn is credited with helping revive Biden’s struggling campaign earlier this year. Just days before South Carolina’s primary, Clyburn gave Biden his coveted endorsement, helping him nail a decisive win and providing his campaign with unstoppable momentum. ”
My point is that Biden was never a popular leader across US. Prior to 2020, all his US Presidential runs failed in early part of Primaries.
Even in 2020 POTUS election, he won only by about 45000 votes based on electoral college math.
And that too after horrendous Trump Presidency, which included horrible handling of COVID in 2020.
Trump should not have contested second term. Now he is putting the whole wetstern world in jeopardy
And you Leadbrain are the definition of an armchair expert on everything and life achiever of SFA. Must be lonely being perfect in an unperfect world. I would hate to live in your miserable head
I see the MSM are looking after their big paying supermarket advertisers.
Sure thing Sandman, what a great response 😉
Maybe you and CAT can actually address policy questions for once… but then its easier to spout that a self proclaimed commie wants a fascist to win then to try and defend your points.
And while I would happppily meet you at a pub or something and absolutely school you in my life achievements, im not old enough or stupid enough to provide that sort of detail online
Dutton is a kaleidoscope of colours but loathes people of colour. Brandt has been cooking up deep red hate.
Albanese inherited a corrupt omnishambles. He has delivered on gender, corruption, trade, upskilling the workforce, foreign affairs, wages, health, climate, and balancing the books.
Give me principled competence over the Dutton/Bandt sound and light show.
I never saw Trump in jail. I always said he will be found to be a lying, sociopathetic, deviant, traitor.
He will either escape overseas, or stoke out and end up in an institution.
I never saw him going to jail.
Enough of the bullshit by the usual stale male contributors.
And Trump is just the puppet. Look at what the Supreme Court has been doing.
The monied class and the republicans have been working on stacking the court to consolidate power into the ruling class.
The federalist society has been working on this for years and Trump has been their useful idiot.
Victoria, whats your view that the whitehouses own internal polling has Biden down 7ish points
And by the monied class, I include foreign adversaries.
Lordbrain
I expressed my view yesterday.
And seriously, just one more time. I’m sick of repeating myself.
Unless Biden strokes out. He needs to see it through. Any change now will guarantee a landslide loss.
It wouldnt matter which candidate the dems put, and that includes Gavin Newsome who is their best bet. If he were VP, Biden would sail through getting another term.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-real-conservatives-keir-starmer-protect-way-life-2337576
Labour are the real conservatives, says Keir Starmer as he promises to protect ‘our way of life’
Sir Keir will say the Tories’ attacks on the UK means “the Conservatives can no longer claim to be conservative”.
He is expected to say: “We can seize the opportunities of tomorrow and make them work for working people. But this ambition must never become unmoored from working peoples’ need for stability, for order, security.
He will insist a Labour government will be about “restoring hope for working people”
But this will not simply be about “redistributing” the proceeds of growth from the south-east, insisting his party’s transformation will be like “Clause IV on steroids” – a reference to Sir Tony’s decision to abandon the goal of common ownership of industry – with a focus on putting communities “in charge of their own destiny” and a reformed state.
Sounds reallly socialist/left to me…
There’s an interesting article on the ABC about the housing crisis.
I say interesting, but what I mean is it’s a rare case of a major media outlet saying what anyone with more than two brain cells has known for decades.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-03/housing-crisis-problems-with-labor-promise-coalition-policy/104049622
“It’s why, at state and federal levels, governments will periodically pretend that the best way to address the raging bin-fire of real property prices is to give first-home buyers money to spend. Arm them with their own personal can of accelerant, in other words.
Between 2012 and 2021, according to the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Australian governments spent $20 billion on assistance to first-home buyers.
Over that time, according to CoreLogic, house prices in Sydney doubled.
These types of measures are by no means out of favour, despite their hilariously predictable effects on the market. “
Good link Ante!
”
Where Tony Blair arrived at a point of hope, Keir Starmer enters at a point of despair. The excitement and pride of 1997 have given way to deep cynicism and Brexit division, writes Gary Nunn who says Brits hoping for a return to the Blair-era glory days are dreaming.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/fool-britannia-brits-hoping-for-a-return-to-the-blair-era-glory-days-are-dreaming-20240627-p5jp7y.html
”
BK
The author of this article is right about that summation.
I felt the same optimism and hope when Rudd government came to power. Then RGR happened.
The UK people will be extremely disappointed within a short time.
Correct me if I am wrong but there is not a single MP with Ministerial experience within British Labour ranks. That will bee telling when they start to govern after the election.
The Tories not screwed UK in every which way but also left noone with ministerial experience in opposition ranks by hanging on to power for 14 long years without doing any good for their country.
The latest Supreme Court decision is not a tremor but an earthquake.
Governance and informing the public of the dark turn the country has taken is what is needed above all else.
The Supreme Court has seen fit to take away women’s reproductive rights and make them criminally responsible.
Even homeless people are now criminally responsible for,being homeless.
Yet they have decided they are the gate keepers and will decide whether their king or even a democratic president, has immunity.
This is what will be meaningful going forward.
Not debates or campaigning.
LB
Accelerationist. Does that term mean anything to you?
Indeed sprocket, and youll note iv said I am not one.
If I was an accelerationist I would be cheering Biden on, because he is going to be the best way for Trump to win.
If I was an accelerationist, I would want Starmer to be the most neoliberal person ever, because that will help Farage next election.
If I was an accelerationist, I would be cheering on labors climate, housing and social support policies… because guess what. If your wondering why that Labor vote keeps gooooooinnnng down, thats why.
I dont believe in accelerationism, because it makes the exact same mistake alot of people (including our lord and savior Marx) make; that history has this trajectory towards something better, and its all about getting there.
Guess what; if the right wins, I dont expect there to be so moment of self reflection and a peaceful return to the centre or the left… i expect the right to do what they always do; grab onto power, with nothing short of a global war needed to prise their fingers from it.
So between the people who have called me a Jew Hater, a Trump lover, a Fascist supporter, an eco fascist etc… how about you pull your heads in and learn what the last several decades of politics has shown, before we are all fucked.
I actually am warming to Kamala Harris as the natural step up should Uncle Joe put the cue in the rack.
1. The Dems can promote her quickly and cleanly.
2. She is in the ticket, so gets all the Biden/Harris war chest of $200m+ (other candidates don’t)
3. She a woman of colour with liberal ideas
Point #3 will piss of the white MAGA crew, and the blue collar NASCAR/WWE males. And the Elon bro types. But these are gone anyway.
Point #3 will also potentially attract more women, especially women of colour, and have some chance of penetrating the younger cohort who are not interested in old stale male farts running for president. And of course retain all the Trump haters.
The CNN poll has
Trump 47
Biden 43
Trump 47
Harris 45
Taylormade
Dusty Martin is moving to Suns next year. I thought he is a 1 club player.
‘It’s done’: David Schwarz drops Dustin Martin trade bomb, says he’s ‘100 per cent’ at the Suns in 2025
https://amp-nine-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.nine.com.au/article/e1866d06-6593-43cb-aa59-3144827c4301?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17199644688076&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com
Just reading about Project 2025. Pretty alarming stuff:
Who’s behind Project 2025?
Project 2025 is the brainchild of The Heritage Foundation, the 50-year-old conservative think tank that’s among the most influential right-wing organizations in the country.
In its nearly half century of existence, The Heritage Foundation has used its resources, influence and money to push its conservative agenda in just about every facet of American life: anti-abortion advocacy, voter suppression, anti-climate policies, and anti-LGBTQ advocacy.
Though The Heritage Foundation organized Project 2025, the initiative is actually a coalition made up of more than 100 right-wing groups, including notorious groups like America First Legal, the Public Interest Legal Foundation and Moms For Liberty. According to NBC News, a huge web of right-wing dark money groups connected to Project 2025, led by the Leonard Leo-connected Donors Trust, has seen a large bump in donations since the project was announced.
Harris would need a VP with a lot of charisma. Sarah Palin is an example of a VP pick that really gave a boost to a faulting campaign (even if she was equally despised). So Harris would need to choose a “star”, maybe literally a movie star.
Yes, all Biden has to do is make sure that shrill black lady is replaced by a white guy, and he will sail forward to victory. FFS.
sprocket:
I’ve never understood the hate for Kamala Harris, and I think she would be perfectly fine as a candidate.
Agreed Asha… I think Harris has the charisma of a wet lettuce, but for anyone who thinks pushing her to the side wont hurt in certain demographics then your crazy.
Ven@9:07
And the fascist US said that these countries should pay up for NATO and won’t help them anymore.
Do you have a clue what the word fascist means? The USA is not it.
The greens are all in with hamas… 😡
“Australia politics live: Greens ‘proud’ of Gaza stance as Labor remains in the spotlight over Payman suspension”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jul/03/australia-politics-live-anthony-albanese-fatima-payman-peter-dutton-question-time-supermarkets-labor-caucus
A drover’s dog could beat Donald Trump.
All the dog has to do is be able to articulate Trump’s record looking back, and his policy looking forward.
And have a bite and a bark.
Ante Meridian @ #77 Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 9:52 am
Which is why Labor has as its policy, building more housing to take the heat out of the demand side of the market.
Asha @ #88 Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 10:22 am
I just listened to a podcast about that topic and the consensus was that she’s not that great on the stump. Which was why her candidacy flamed out in 2020.
Asha @ #88 Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 10:22 am
You are looking at the issue with “Australian” eyes. If you look at it with “American” eyes (which I agree is hard to do) I think things look quite different.
It used to be said that Australians were a “Weird Mob” – but we can’t hold a candle to the Yanks on that score 🙁
Asha @ #87 Wednesday, July 3rd, 2024 – 10:20 am
There’s also been polling done to see how wedded the Democratic Party voters of colour are to the ‘shrill black lady’. Answer? Not as much as it was supposed.
davo, if your going to lie, try harder…
And the Supreme Court.
None of this Biden institutionalism – I respectfully dissent FFS
‘Trump’s unelected lackeys on the Supreme Court are destroying the country – taking your freedoms away, saying Trump is a King, verging on corruption with $millions in gifts and trashing Our Constitution.’ – the populist rallying stuff writes itself.
‘I will fix the Supreme Court by making them more reflective of our country by increasing the size from 9 to 15’ – an actual policy
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 10:24 am
A drover’s dog could beat Donald Trump.
All the dog has to do is be able to articulate Trump’s record looking back, and his policy looking forward.
And have a bite and a bark.
+1
Re: Albo gubbermint.
I’ve just ordered beige hearing aids so as not to ‘scare the horses’ basically.
Albo infuriates me mainly because his actions are driven by hidden forces that come with the reality of governing, but he maintains the secrecy instead of ‘speaking the truth’ behind their decisions.
They don’t have day-glow hearing aids and while life with them would be interesting I guess Albo is content to be beige and essentially meh, just like my hearing aids I suppose, but they do the job, I hope!
C@t
They have who they have. I’ve seen Harris on the stump, she is not too bad in staying on message. All that’s needed.