The fortnightly Essential Research poll continues to find little separating the two major parties on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, with the Coalition up a point on last time to 47% and Labor down two to 46%, with the remainder undecided. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 30% while the Coalition is up one to 33%, with the Greens down one to 12%, One Nation down one to 7%, others up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 1% and undecided up one to 7%.
The monthly personal ratings record a three-point drop in Anthony Albanese’s approval rating to 40% with disapproval up to 49%, his worst net result and disapproval result from this pollster so far. Peter Dutton is unchanged at 41% approval and 42% disapproval. There are also questions on the leaders’ attributes which find the biggest distinction between the two being a 74-26 split against the notion that Albanese is aggressive, compared with 50-50 for Dutton. No doubt relatedly, there is a 52-48 break in favour of Dutton as decisive – probably the most positive result for either out of eight qualities canvassed – which comes at 58-42 against for Albanese.
There are also bad signs for the government on a semi-regular national mood question, which finds a five-point increase on last month to 54% for those rating Australia as on the wrong track, with right track down four to 30%. However, a series of questions on the Coalition’s nuclear energy policy produces broadly negative results: 48% rate Dutton’s plan as “serious” compared with 52% for an alternative of “just an attempt to extend the life of gas and limit investment in large-scale renewables”, and 38% rate nuclear energy as the most expensive out of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels, up two since April, with renewables down five to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (steady), Coalition 36.5% (down half), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying release notes that a preference determination based on flows at the 2022 election rather than respondent allocation produces a lead to Labor of 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1708.
Hmm the seats in the pommy election where Muslim candidates opposed labor turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for whom?
Labor!
All 23 seats.
If not Fatima you can bet other Zealots will form a party.How many labor seats in western Syd etc?
Says John Black AFR today.
Scandal plagued Christian megachurch Hillsong is bleeding $100,000 a week in donations as auditors warn high-powered “regulatory” investigations risk crippling its finances. Hillsong handed over a string of financial documents to the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC) last week, revealing its plunging fortunes. Documents warned that a key Hillsong entity, The Hillsong Foundation Trust, was racing to refinance a $24 million loan with NAB before September 30 this year. My heart bleeds!
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/faith-on-trial/hillsong-donations-plunge-100k-a-week-amid-probe-by-australian-taxation-office/news-story/226500bd5f69ea3745d20d701b6636fc
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/03/polls-essential-research-and-roy-morgan-open-thread-6/comment-page-31/#comment-4319355, hmmm shit lite centrist and full of shit neofascist, the major parties duopoly, in the most recent Essential something like 30% say the country is headed in the right direction, here’s to more progressive Greens/ conservative Teals
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/election-2024-campaign-updates/
How much longer is he going to drag this out.
Starmer is a very shadowy figure, indeed. Some highlights in this thread:
https://x.com/eshaLegal/status/1809206716971569187
I’m starting to worry that the more Biden tries to prove he is up for running for another 4 years the more he calls into question his ability to stay as President for another 5 months. That’s not just lame duck. It would be a crisis.
Pull out reluctantly but gracefully dude. Admit another 4 years is a stretch. It would actually show you’re still good for the WH till Jan.
[‘Truss, Rees-Mogg, Shapps, Liam Fox: so many erased after 14 years of dystopian soap opera. And not a moist eye in the house”]
I like it!
__________________________________________
Biden’s problem is that his mental acuity won’t improve, and the voting public knows this as most would have had experience with a relative suffering from the various forms of cognitive impairment. Granted, those affected can be lucid at times giving rise to hope, but it doesn’t last and decline can accelerate, as evidenced by comparing Biden today to even a year ago. This I think calls for a utilitarian approach in lieu of satisfying the needs of his family and staff.
As someone from one of Sarah Longwell’s focus groups, who was a Clinton/Biden voter, pointed out…Trump strode off the debate stage, Biden had to be helped off the stage by Jill Biden.
During Sunak’s concession speech someone stood behind him holding up a capital L on a sheet of paper. Does anyone know what that was supposed to mean?
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1809238477155746037
Why are people fighting against NDIS reform? The scheme is currently our of control and massively rorted.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Kier Starmer’s left of centre instincts are what Britain needs after 14 years of failed Tory austerity. But like Australia after Morrison, it will take Labour years to repair the UK economy and institutions.
As for the political challenge of Palestinian Australians, IMO their grievance against Israel is real. Hamas and Hezbolah are tools of Iran. But five million Palestinians are the victims of both them and IDF attacks. Labor is correct not to support Iran, Hamas and Hezbolah. It must get off the fence and make clear it does not support Israel or it will suffer a large scale loss of support from Muslim Australians.
Saying that not supporting Israel is antisemitism is false. Many Israelis don’t support the Gaza war.
This is one of many issues where a smarter government would not agree with USA on everything.
Confessions @ #1560 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:18 am
Loser?
TK:
I’m stunned that his advisors thought he could breeze through the campaign without his condition being noticed!
C@t:
Surely not. It would be in such poor form for someone to tarnish the outgoing PM’s concession speech that way.
Yeah nah
Political parties that are so visibly corrupted by profit driven corporations to the detriment of society should be avoided by voters.
People still don’t understand how the community Teal independents here have changed the game.
They deliver true social democracy , rather than a society killing corporatocracy.
Donors dropping off Biden now.
What is happening over there is a tragedy.
BK @ #1539 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 7:38 am
Thanks, BK. The news items today of real importance are this …
… and this …
Oh, and Jonathan Pie singing in celebration of the defeat of the Tory scum in the UK. Magic. 🙂
I mentioned several links yesterday to recent investigations of AUKUS that are just hitting the press. They will attract more attention as they are read.
AUKUS is a ticking time bomb. Labor is hoping that it can kick AUKUS far enough down the road not to deal with it in its time of office. That is wishful thinking.
The longer Labor supports AUKUS, the more money is wasted, and the more Australia’s defence and sovereignty is compromised. Anyone who thinks it is a vote winner for Labor is certifiable. It was Morrison’s dream, and that should have told us all we needed to know.
A light blue Reform tie worn by King Charles?
I agree with Cat on Biden. What has been seen cannot be unseen. The Dems might lose if they switch to Kamala Harris. But they will lose if they don’t switch.
The US constitution provides for the possibility of replacing presidents unable to carry on. If they went by the book the Dems would do that now.
Both legally and politically that might be the safest way to proceed.
Have a good day all.
Confessions @ #1564 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 8:49 am
Positive reinforcement? He did Campaign Lite last time while many in the party were secretly questioning his fitness (people who attended his rallies etc). Back then, the opinion was that Trump was on the nose and a non-descript easy option with black voter cred like Biden would fall over the line without much trouble (and whilst I thought Sanders would have won, I agreed at the time Biden was the safest option) regardless of age and frailty of body and mind.
Then, like now, I think many democrats, from the voter to the adviser, are in denial about Trumps electability. They feel Trump will lose the election, not that they have to win it. In that scenario, a carefully managed Biden makes some sense. But they are wrong. Biden made Trump look almost presidential fit in that debate. OMFG! Anyone of the other other possible candidates wouldnt have lost that ground. Biden, as incumbent, has a good record as POTUS. But utterly unable to sell it let alone defend it. So he has lost that high ground too.
Were it a preferential compulsory election, they may still have a case. But Biden is turning off demographics that he needs to turn out.
Soc,
So the Australian government should have no sympathy for the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, nor the 1200 Israelis murdered on October 7, 2023?
Also, there’s a logical inconsistency in your argument. You say:
Saying that not supporting Israel is antisemitism is false. Many Israelis don’t support the Gaza war.
This is exactly the government’s position. They support the citizens of Israel and the citizens of Palestine. They support a 2 State solution. They don’t support Hamas. They don’t support the Settler Movement. That’s not ‘on the fence’. That’s a responsible position to take.
And this is just offensive and shows you’ve gone down the Anti AUKUS rabbit hole:
Anyone who thinks it (AUKUS) is a vote winner for Labor is certifiable.
And just to prove how obsessive you have become, when no one responded to yet another Anti AUKUS diatribe of yours yesterday, what do you do immediately today? Bring it up again.
I guess while you’ve been down in your Anti AUKUS rabbit hole you missed the announcement yesterday by Richard Marles of the secure military data deal with Amazon, no doubt to accommodate the AI and quantum computing information that will be shared between America and Australia…as an integral part of AUKUS.
And your alternative is what if we go down your rabbit hole with you and Australia pulls out of AUKUS? A deal with a country with a 28 year old Prime Minister, who is a puppet of Marine Le Pen, who is a puppet of Vladimir Putin?
You need to wake up and smell the coffee.
That asks a lot of Harris in a short timeframe (to take over as POTUS and run for president) and runs the risk of a constitutional crisis if a new VP isnt sworn in.
Masonic handshake between Chuck and Starmo?
Confessions @ #1564 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:20 am
That’s the world we live in now, ‘Fess. Political niceties are so 20th century it seems. The internet age has turbo-charged disrespect.
Team Katich @ #1573 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:33 am
The new VP would be her chosen Running Mate.
Hoover served out his term without a VP, Charles Curtis [first POC VP] died during the Term.
Why can’t Harris do the same?
BBC interactions with Democrat voters in USA
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6p2w01lg77o
”
Confessionssays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 8:45 am
President Biden dismissed reports of an effort by Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.) to rally Democratic senators to force the 81-year-old Democrat out of the race.
“Mark R. Warner, is my understanding, is the only one considering that,” Biden told reporters in Wisconsin on Friday, when asked about the effort, first reported by The Washington Post. “No one else has called me with that,” Biden added.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/election-2024-campaign-updates/
How much longer is he going to drag this out.
”
Some say that hevis putting Western free world at risk.
Cat
“ So the Australian government should have no sympathy for the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, nor the 1200 Israelis murdered on October 7, 2023?”
I said nothing of the sort and you know it.
Now the donors are getting on the bandwagon!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/election-2024-campaign-updates/#author-box
I watched Biden’s Wisconsin rally speech this morning – somewhere between 10-15 minutes off a teleprompter. He can do this (mostly) effectively in a supportive environment.
His voice was mostly upbeat, barely any stumbles – though at one point he said ‘I shouldn’t say that..’ when it appeared he was about to ad lib something, caught himself, and went back to teleprompter.
The speech writers hit all the right buttons – good economic record, restore Roe v Wade, and over 50% of the time devoted to bagging out Trump. Morals of an alley cat. And the Supreme Court.
And took on the age issue. ‘Am I old enough to great 15 million jobs? Am I old enough to restore Roe v Wade?..’ call/response with the audience.
In retrospect, Biden’s team should have got him to say ‘I’m not debating Donald Trump – he is not fit to be on the stage of a Presidential Debate after what he did on January 6’. And followed up the predictable bleating with a full court press hammering Trump.
Next week is the NATO Summit in Washington, with global leaders descending, including Keir Starmer.
Biden has to be Presidential at that event
Gittins has a very poor memory:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-you-care-about-your-offspring-you-should-support-nature-positive-20240704-p5jr8k.html
The reason why Ken Henry talked about natural capital stocks is because a substantial amount of work was being done by economists on this when he was in the APS (along with Martin Parkinson and his push for a complete wellbeing framework).
But the public rejected all this and voted for Abbott – and now blame the economics progression for their own stupidity:
Treasury in 2012:
https://treasury.gov.au/publication/economic-roundup-issue-3-2012-2/economic-roundup-issue-3-2012/treasurys-wellbeing-framework
And Ken Henry in 2010:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/Value_of_the_Environment.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwipwazFipGHAxXf_aACHX4yCb8QFnoECBQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3iCsAWnwvPgaU4jZJp2_IM
Rex Douglast 9:23 am
Donors dropping off Biden now.
Sure.
The donors haven’t actually stumped up the $$$ yet, so the campaign is running on credit.
Soon the credit tap will be switched off, that’s the end of the Biden campaign.
Yeah, his team will be trying to sell his sorry arse to everyone from Vlad Putin to the King of France, but, … not long now.
”
Team Katichsays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 9:10 am
I’m starting to worry that the more Biden tries to prove he is up for running for another 4 years the more he calls into question his ability to stay as President for another 5 months. That’s not just lame duck. It would be a crisis.
Pull out reluctantly but gracefully dude. Admit another 4 years is a stretch. It would actually show you’re still good for the WH till Jan.
”
At a rally in Wisconson on Friday he was defiant that Democrat voters selected him to be the candidate and hence he will stay in the race.
It appears increasingly that the only way he would step down is by being admitted in hospital for some serious illness at this stage.
People under the age of 45 do not understand what this means. Evidenced by the Pod Save America crew wondering at the phrase and asking what had cats done to deserve the assumption they have no morals.
Biden should just state the plain truth: that Trump has all the innocence of a 34 times convicted felon.
”
Mavissays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 9:17 am
[‘Truss, Rees-Mogg, Shapps, Liam Fox: so many erased after 14 years of dystopian soap opera. And not a moist eye in the house”]
I like it!
”
I endorse it. 🙂
I am fond of alley c@ts.
Did he actually say this?
Roe v Wade was a decision of SCOTUS in 1973, struck down by SCOTUS recently.
The Executive can’t restore Roe v Wade, Separation of Powers, unless he’s signaling that he’ll stack the Supreme Court in a 2nd Term?
https://x.com/MarkOgge/status/1809113670405779554
You need to read this thread.
We saw in 2020 how important a VP can be in the transition of power.
And the VP currently has the deciding vote in the senate.
There is no constitutional amendment in not having a VP and it occurred frequently before the XXV amendment was passed after Kennedy was assassinated (btw Curtis survived the term).
If there is no VP the Speaker is next in line – having Johnson as speaker might encourage a quick confirmation of Harris’ choice for VP. In the Senate the president pro tempore presides but does not have a casting vote and tied votes automatically fail.
”
Socratessays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 9:18 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Kier Starmer’s left of centre instincts are what Britain needs after 14 years of failed Tory austerity. But like Australia after Morrison, it will take Labour years to repair the UK economy and institutions.
As for the political challenge of Palestinian Australians, IMO their grievance against Israel is real. Hamas and Hezbolah are tools of Iran. But five million Palestinians are the victims of both them and IDF attacks. Labor is correct not to support Iran, Hamas and Hezbolah. It must get off the fence and make clear it does not support Israel or it will suffer a large scale loss of support from Muslim Australians.
Saying that not supporting Israel is antisemitism is false. Many Israelis don’t support the Gaza war.
This is one of many issues where a smarter government would not agree with USA on everything.
”
Socrates
5 (or is it 6?) Muslim independents were elected in safe Labour seats in just concluded UK election.
The only loss of Labour to Tories is in Leicester East, where South Asians consititute 2/3 of voters(as per BBC)
Even Bruce Hawker is advising ALP to loosen caucus rules in some circumstances, where government decision won’t change.
@Rex
Yeah nah
Political parties that are so visibly corrupted by profit driven corporations to the detriment of society should be avoided by voters.
People still don’t understand how the community Teal independents here have changed the game.
They deliver true social democracy , rather than a society killing corporatocracy.
______________________
Ok, let’s say you believe that. What the Teals represent is that the $money$ couldn’t hold their nose any longer and side with a party that had forgotten that you need to keep the $money$ and religion seperate.
And incase you might forget, the Teals won their seats through tactical voting by Labor voters, not by the standard wealthy voters of those seats. Labor voters kicked out the Libs.
Badthinker @ #1591 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:25 am
There are ways but it is debatable if Congress would pass the laws or SCOTUS would allow those laws to stand or any executive orders to stand. So you are right. He would probably have to stack the court.
BK
“Will Fatima Payman become the Pauline Hanson of the left? That’s up to her, says Peter Hartcher.”
————-
I do find it disconcerting and worrying how the western contemporary left identify Islam as a left wing ideology.
Given the west is almost universally post-Christian there is, arguably, a vacancy for religious meaning. The left seems to promote Islam as the preferred “franchisee”.
I wonder does the contemporary left truly believe that Islamic countries represent the “progressive” future for the west or are they using it as a useful stalking horse that will be cynically disposed of once its helped to destroy what the left hates in the current political economic order.
A bit like some of the industrialists in ‘30s Germany who thought they could control the German fascists they supported.
Did I read that Jezza crossed the floor 400 odd times during 33 years on the Backbench?
Albo and Marles don’t have the political wherewithal to transition away from AUKUS.