The fortnightly Essential Research poll continues to find little separating the two major parties on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, with the Coalition up a point on last time to 47% and Labor down two to 46%, with the remainder undecided. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 30% while the Coalition is up one to 33%, with the Greens down one to 12%, One Nation down one to 7%, others up one to 10%, the United Australia Party steady on 1% and undecided up one to 7%.
The monthly personal ratings record a three-point drop in Anthony Albanese’s approval rating to 40% with disapproval up to 49%, his worst net result and disapproval result from this pollster so far. Peter Dutton is unchanged at 41% approval and 42% disapproval. There are also questions on the leaders’ attributes which find the biggest distinction between the two being a 74-26 split against the notion that Albanese is aggressive, compared with 50-50 for Dutton. No doubt relatedly, there is a 52-48 break in favour of Dutton as decisive – probably the most positive result for either out of eight qualities canvassed – which comes at 58-42 against for Albanese.
There are also bad signs for the government on a semi-regular national mood question, which finds a five-point increase on last month to 54% for those rating Australia as on the wrong track, with right track down four to 30%. However, a series of questions on the Coalition’s nuclear energy policy produces broadly negative results: 48% rate Dutton’s plan as “serious” compared with 52% for an alternative of “just an attempt to extend the life of gas and limit investment in large-scale renewables”, and 38% rate nuclear energy as the most expensive out of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels, up two since April, with renewables down five to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (steady), Coalition 36.5% (down half), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% (down one-and-a-half). The accompanying release notes that a preference determination based on flows at the 2022 election rather than respondent allocation produces a lead to Labor of 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1708.
The court definitely needs stacking to restore its independence and impartiality.
The current court is essentially the judicial wing of the Republican party, such that it has made the policy changes the party hasn’t been able to achieve via the legislature.
Oakeshott Country @ #1594 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:28 am
The democrats can not afford to have this level of instability leading up to the election.
Biden needs to pull out of the candidature and focus on showing he is up to the next 5 months of being POTUS. Harris becoming the candidate AND being VP is asking a lot in these circumstances (the late change and the uncertainty of Biden being fit for office), but the option of her taking on the presidency and dealing with the lack of a VP and the shenanigans that will incur in congress AND being candidate for 2024 is too much for anyone.
Good morning bludgers:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-dirty-secret-of-australia-s-green-energy-transition-20240704-p5jr9m.html
This is a good article in that it provides a reasonable overview of the current state of energy generation and the future over the next 30 years.
That being said the article is still deficient in certain ways.
Pumped hydro. It only uses Snowy 2.0 as evidence that that technology has problems associated with cost and speed of being rolled out. In reality 2.0 was a lemon from its inception, something that – as modern beat poet Donald Rumsfeld – would have commented – was ‘a known known’ back in 2016. Other pumped hydro projects are much more straight forward.
Offshore wind. little to no analysis is provided as to how far offshore wind changes the equation in terms of firming. At up to 55% capacity of ‘nameplate’ generation, this is quite a lot.
These two factors alone indicate that Gas may not end up being needed as ‘peakers’ for the last 10%, but something a lot less than that. I read somewhere just the other day that the current thinking is that we will only need another 5 Gigawatts of gas generation on top of our existing inventory of gas plants (I can’t recall now however where I read that).
The article does not expose the fundamental bullshit associated with the LNP’s policies.
1. 2037 as the commencement of the rollout of nuclear power generation entering the grid is – in the best possible world – still a bullshit date. Even using the beloved by LNP Korean power plants as ‘the benchmark’ the first watt of energy generated by a nuclear plant would not enter the grid for another 5 years, and the plant (a four unit system) would not be fully operational for another 5 years. of course, even that is fantasy: in ‘Strayla’ there is no way we could spool up a nuclear regulatory framework – or workforce to meet those time frames. The UAE – who ultimately contracted to the Koreans – took around 7 years of decision making, regulatory framework establishment, contract negotiations before they started building on. Greenfield s site, and it will be a full 14 years after construction first started there before that plant will achieve full operational status later this year, or in 2025. Add another decade on top of that if the plan is to use brown fields sites, that have to be remediated whilst also dealing with community backlash and pushing through enabling legislation through a bi-cameral parliament where only the LNP supports this brainfart (and then making the necessary ‘disallowable instruments’ dealing with all the nitty gritty associated with the regulatory framework).
2. IF (and when) nuclear power turns up it will do a terrible job of ‘firming’ the grid to deal with dunkleflaute events – for exactly the same reason why coal would do such a bad job. Both coal and nuclear provide ‘baseload’ – an irrelevant requirement for a national grid based on interlocking and overlapping variable generation systems. What is required – of anything is actually required – is technology that rapidly firms the grid. For small fluctations in power generation batteries are good, but for larger ‘dunkleflaute’ type events pumped hydro is the best technology – complemented by a residual 15-20 Gigawatts of back up gas generation (a lot less than the article states): – and the amount of use these gas systems will get depends on just how much pumped hydro is built over the next 20 years.
Team Katich @ #1589 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 9:54 am
The last alley cat we tried to save ended up putting my husband in hospital for a week with sepsis after it bit him. 😆
Is that symbolic in any way? Nah, I’m a pussyc@t. 😉
Gee, the early clips from Biden and Stephanopolus are as hard to watch as the debate. Any acuity he has is not being displayed
https://trib.al/Pblq7lM
Sprocket_ @ #1604 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 10:14 am
Did you put up that compare and contrast video the other day that compared Biden V Sarah Palin and Biden V Trump the other week? It was a damning indictment all on its own.
Yes, it’s true that if we stay on the trajectory of large scale Renewable projects plus battery and pumped hydro backup, we will ultimately not need gas firming very much at all. We definitely won’t need nuclear.
Also, for all its faults and holdups, Snowy Hydro 2.0 is slowly going ahead, and every week we don’t hear about another stoppage is another week when drilling is proceeding successfully. Not to mention all the other, smaller pumped hydro projects that are being approved and are going ahead successfully.
The appointment of Field was distinct from the Gough/Joh shenanigans that led to the abolition of special senate elections by the 1977 amendment (known as “The Night of the Long Prawns”).
Before the amendment replacements for senators did not complete the original senator’s term but filled in until the next federal election. This meant that occasionally 6 or 7 senators were elected instead of the then usual 5.
A half Senate election was required in May 1974 as the House and Senate elections had been out of kilter since 1963. Whitlam was facing a tough election in Queensland which would likely end as 3 coalition and 2 Labor, but if a non Labor senator who was not facing election, could be persuaded to resign there would be 6 vacancies which would almost certainly end with a 3:3 result.
Obviously a tough order but he offered Vince Gair a former Qld ALP premier and well known piss artist and now DLP Senator the role as Ambassador to Éire and the Holy See.
However, under the constitution the State Governor on the recommendation of the Premier issues the writ for senate elections and Joh organised his federal colleagues to divert Gair from seeing the President of the Senate to hand in his resignation. They put on a beer and prawn night for him. In the meantime the Governor was instructed to issue the writs for 5 senate positions as Gair had not officially resigned and there was no casual vacancy
When all this became known Billie Sneddon was so shocked that he threatened to withhold supply and Whitlam requested a double dissolution.
To prevent a similar farce casual vacancy senators now serve the full term of the senator they replace.
You can watch the Biden interview here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFyBapzgbSs&ab_channel=News5Cleveland
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 7:00 am
He will, Scott.
Labor reckons the cost of the Renewables rollout will be $122 Bn.
Dutts hasn’t turned his attention to that mindblowing lie yet, I’d say it’s only a matter of time, because support for Renewables is a mile wide and an inch deep.
=======================================================
$122 billion will get us to around 100% renewable energy. The same amount at a minimum but possibly up to $600 billion. Will give us 3.7% of the grid being run on nuclear power. With 100’s of billions more spent on coal fired stations as the LNP wants to block new renewables. The Australian public can’t afford Dutton’s nuclear dream as it is incredibly expensive and results in only 3.7% of the grid being supplied by nuclear anyway. Suggesting Dutton’s true dream is extend the life of polluting fossils fuels for as long as possible. For which the whole world pays and the Australian taxpayer pays through the nose financially too.
Biden said he doesn’t believe the polls are accurate.
My god.
Is it true the Biden said, “step back and wait for applause to finish” during his Wisconsin speech?
Confessionssays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 8:43 am
ian bremmer@ianbremmer
·
4h
the second american revolution apparently not polling as well as the first in internal focus groups
=================================================
Trump denies the foundation stone on which he plans to build his empire.
Quote:
“And he said, I tell thee, Peter, the cock shall not crow this day, before that thou shalt thrice deny that thou knowest me.”
Oakeshott Country @ #1612 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 10:29 am
Probably. He’s done that many times in the past, so it’s a likelihood.
Probably need an old school Republican to run for POTUS as an independent.
Maybe Chaney… ?
OMFG! There is a different meaning of Alley Cat. Jeepers.
As for the traditional meaning. We adopted a couple of strays. Lovely cats – they were kittens at the time tho.
Not lap cats. They love on their terms. Except the girl cat with my daughter. That was unconditional.
Pauline Hanson of the left… man Hatcher is a hack. If it’s a single issue party (and again this is alllll based on a lot of shit being flung at the senator to see what sticks) then it’s hardly hansonite. And if it turns out to be a Muslim issues party… then how the hell is that left wing.
Seriously, i would ask how these people have jobs, but then again the Australian media landscape is 95 percent shit anyways
Also not surprised to see CAT trying to lie about what others have have… seems to be a habit
Fess
I said that as a joke but you are right.
One example
https://www.tiktok.com/@ifenglobal/video/7361734672872770859
The world’s greatest democracy is being run by a teleprompter.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 10:21 am
Yes, it’s true that if we stay on the trajectory of large scale Renewable projects plus battery and pumped hydro backup, we will ultimately not need gas firming very much at all. We definitely won’t need nuclear.
Also, for all its faults and holdups, Snowy Hydro 2.0 is slowly going ahead, and every week we don’t hear about another stoppage is another week when drilling is proceeding successfully. Not to mention all the other, smaller pumped hydro projects that are being approved and are going ahead successfully.
As an EV owner I’m amazed at the proliferation of EVs around my area and daily drive. The media have noticed too and are engaged in a massive program of massaging bruised egos with ‘feel good’ confections; even their ABC is in on it.
My take away is that renewables are winning…just so much fuel out there for the forces of darkness to use to stoke division, sadly.
Could someone tell me what the percentage of eligible voters in Australia are Muslim
TK:
Well, yes! Which is why Biden uses that phrase.
If more people actually understood what it meant, he’d likely cop flak for it. I mean, women have been enjoying their sexual freedom for decades now, so to infer that a woman who has numerous sexual partners is of questionable morals is pretty inappropriate these days.
OC:
It’s a running joke about Biden. There are many videos over the years of him speaking verbatim from the teleprompter and not actually recognising when to stop speaking and just read.
Joe Biden – just pull out. Get through your lame-duck period and then honorably leave the White House in January.
I didn’t watch the debate but that interview was cringeworthy to watch. Clearly not up to it. He doesn’t realise that he’s just consigned Ukraine to Russian annexation and democracy in the world to oblivion at a stroke (no pun intended).
Just leave. So that someone else can have a go at saving the furniture. Your party recognises that winning is not on the table.
He aint winning votes with that performance.
He should be able to convince people he can finish his term.
@Team Katich, 10:02 AM:
“There are ways but it is debatable if Congress would pass the laws or SCOTUS would allow those laws to stand or any executive orders to stand. So you are right. He would probably have to stack the court.”
Well, the ‘good’ news is that – since just about anything the POTUS does is now officially legal – Biden can easily stack the SCOTUS. Just have the 6 RWNJ justices whacked. Then, start whacking GOP Senators and their families until they get the message and fast-track Biden’s replacement Justices. (This is not approval of such a course of action – it’s merely noting that it can now be done without consequence.)
Seriously, I wish I could say, ‘I can’t believe the SCOTUS chose to reinstate monarchy!’, but I was sinkingly certain that this would be the ruling. And yes, that is now what the USA is for all intents and purposes. A four-year, elective monarchy, where not only is the monarch immune from prosecution, but nothing they do can even be taken as evidence for criminal actions outside their official duties.
English Kings haven’t had it this good since 1649!
Team Katich @ #1624 Saturday, July 6th, 2024 – 10:49 am
The biggest red flag is that Biden doesn’t even seem aware of, or even accepts the state of the polling! He said straight out that he doesn’t believe his approval numbers are what are showing up in polls.
How is that meant to convince Democrat leaders and down ballot candidates that he’s capable of running an effective campaign? When Biden can’t even see the train wreck in front of him, why would others want their campaigns tethered to his?
It doesnt make it legal, just that the POTUS is immune from prosecution in many circumstances. He might have to top them himself. Imagine that. Bystanders look out!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/election-2024-campaign-updates/
Another red flag. He hasn’t cottoned on yet that it is no longer Biden v Trump.
It’s now Biden v ‘I’m sitting this election out’.
Bulldustsays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 10:40 am
Could someone tell me what the percentage of eligible voters in Australia are Muslim
===============================================================
About 813k
Link : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Australia#:~:text=Islam%20is%20the%20second%20largest,of%20the%20total%20Australian%20population.
They are, however, concentrated in relatively few seats;
* Calwell (VIC)
* Blaxland (NSW) Biggest proportion
* Watson (NSW)
* Maribyrnong (VIC)
* Wills (VIC) 2nd biggest proportion
* Werriwa (NSW)
He could have said that 2 months ago. Even when he was behind in the polling he could say ‘it is far enough out that when people focus in during a campaign the polls would improve’. The problem is, when they focus in, they will see more of Biden and I dont think they will like it.
Biden has previously ruled out expanding the Supreme Court. May happen under a future Democrat President, but not under Biden.
Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-calls-us-colleges-consider-adversity-during-admission-process-2023-06-29/
I believe his concern is that the increase would only be temporary, because when the Republicans got back in again, they would in turn increase to suit themselves. And then, I suppose, we’d end up with the Supreme Court loooking like the U.K. House of Lords.
Unprecedented heat waves are becoming the precedent now for many peoples summers around the world.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/05/weather/west-coast-california-oregon-heat-wave/index.html
A logical conclusion.
Yep.
Rishi Sunak Lost Big. YouTuber Mocked Him With A Giant “L” Sign Behind Him
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/rishi-sunak-lost-big-youtuber-niko-omilana-mocks-him-with-a-giant-l-sign-behind-him-6042279
Pathetic click bait from nine media.
Yeh Rex, hatchers a hack with that take…
Can Kamala Harris beat Trump?
How many Democrats will be debating exactly this question ?
You can’t see how ridiculous your post is?
As long as it is making decisions you prefer it is impartial?
FFS. What a joke.
Having lied and connived his way into no.10, Starmer, the red Tory, now has 4 yrs to hopefully do some good things for the UK society.
I prefer fixed 4 yr terms as that gives the incumbent the opportunity to say, right, I’m going to govern as if I’ve only got 4 yrs in the job and I’ve got the time to actually do things.
Too often these days with 3 yr terms, the incoming Govt become careerists too afraid to do anything of substance always focusing on re-election.
The polling doesn’t indicate she can.
The Republicans must be absolutely loving this. The longer Biden stays the worse it is getting.
If Biden stays, it looks like the Republicans win.
If Harris is rammed in, it looks like the Republicans win.
If they try and take the nomination away from Biden, involuntarily, it will be a blood bath, it looks like the Republicans win.
The best hope for the Democrats is Biden voluntarily stands down and they somehow find a competitive candidate – yet that seems to be a highly unlikely outcome at this point in time.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 11:31 am
It’s 5 years, Champ.
I think that’s terrible. The concession speech is an important part of vesting legitimacy with the newly elected government.
Just look at America where the losing presidential candidate in 2020 did not concede and for the past 3 and a half years 1/3 of the country has had its hair on fire believing the incumbent to be illegitimate and the results rigged!
Scott says Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 6:52 am
Who would believe the numbers if he did?
Lordbain
A little known journo from the GA, Stephanie Convery (well worth a follow) summed up the CPG this week.
Thanks FUBAR.
I’m good with 5yrs fixed as well.
Those political donors who are ‘never Trumpers’ are going to have to fund a ‘republican’ independent to split off some GOP votes.
UK cartoons and other miscellany
Brian Adcock
Ben Jennings
Kipper Williams
Stokoe
Dave Brown
Matt
Banx
Martin Rowson
Graeme Bandiera
Christian Adams
James Mellor
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Marian Hyde (Guardian)
“Baker?… Gullis?… Mercer?… Mordaunt?… Rees-Mogg?… Shapps?… Shapps, using any other name?… No?… Truss?….”
Larry the Cat
@Number10cat
How’s it going with my new housemate?
I asked Starmer if it felt strange as an Arsenal fan not to come second in a two horse race and now he’s not talking to me… #kitileaks
Larry the Cat
@Number10cat
As Starmer announces his first cabinet, confirmation of the one individual staying put:
Some talk here on Field and Gough and House of Lords. Have we all listened to this weeks Radio National LNL special with Keating and Frank Cain?
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, July 6, 2024 at 11:41 am
Those political donors who are ‘never Trumpers’ are going to have to fund a ‘republican’ independent to split off some GOP votes.
==========================================================
Think it’s too late Rex.
RCP polling averages show Trump now up 3.3% over Biden since the debate. They drew even mid June.
In the 5-way calculations it’s nearly 5%, so when you add further candidates, it only serves to peel votes off Biden. I think it’s too late to replace Biden now for the reasons Fubar outlined above and I said last night. Trying to force him out at the DNC will only split the party, especially if Biden decides to stay. Prepare for a Trump presidency.
RCP Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
It seems the Dems and Biden are doing everything they can to get Trump in the WH.