The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.
The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.
A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:
• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).
• Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.
• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.
Vic:
Congratulations to your daughter!
I think the media is creating its own bubble about Biden, but there are genuine concerns his diminished capacity means he can’t run an effective campaign. But it seems like he’s doubling down and is likely to hold on.
This week will be key.
From the DP: [‘Dr Kevin O’Connor, Biden’s physician, met with Dr Kevin Cannard, a top neurologist, on January 17 and Cannard has visited the White House a further seven times in the last year.’]
A likely diagnosis of PD should not come as a surprise.
________________________________________
So, Le Pen has failed once again. That also didn’t come as a surprise.
Fess
Of course he isn’t as sharp. He is getting old. He has always been a gaffe machine. His lifelong stutter does not help.
But the msm is doing what they did to Hillary. Remember the health scares they reported on her prior to election?
She is still kicking 9 years later.
There were constant and countless reporting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/11/hillary-clintons-health-just-became-a-real-issue-in-the-presidential-campaign/
Sandman,
Frank Carbone does what he can to curry favour with the electorate with money given to him by the state government. I read recently that the NSW Labor government were looking at how much he and Dai Le had been given by the former Coalition government, what it was supposed to be for and what they spent it on. And didn’t. So, the short answer is, I don’t know how it’s going to pan out for him.
Vic,
Only this time, the concerns about Biden’s cognitive health are real.
Another example. It was relentless at the time
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-hillary-clintons-health-scare-creates-major-campaign/story?id=42022038
https://x.com/theshovel/status/1810076647108010134, shit lite downunder asks motherland for tips
C@t
As they should be about Trump.
In any case, Biden current VP is a youngish Kamala Harris, so what is the problem? She is a known quantity. Seriously, I just dont get it.
Trump hasn’t even nominated a running mate to give the public confidence of who could step up.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he picked a family member to be VP.
People are not seeing the forest for the trees.
Fess
As usual, lots will be happening, but probably not what people are expecting. Lol
A lightweight US-made drone which carries an explosive payload and fits in a backpack will soon enter service with the Australian Defence Force (ADF) following its successful use on the battlefield in Europe.
On Monday the Albanese government will announce it’s acquiring the “Switchblade 300”, a precision loitering munition with a range of around 10 kilometres that’s being operated by Ukrainian soldiers in their fight against invading Russian forces.
According to US manufacturer AeroVironment, the portable device weighs only a few kilograms and uses a strike missile capable of hitting beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) enemy targets.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-08/australian-military-to-buy-small-american-made-lethal-drones/104069310
Victoria @ #NaN Monday, July 8th, 2024 – 8:31 am
Kamala Harris could win, I don’t think Joe Biden can any more.
It is rumoured also that Trump may pick Lara Trump as his VP. Hoo ee! 😯
C@t
Yep Lara Trump is definitely on the list.
The convention will be fun.
C@t
I believe Biden/Harris or Biden/Newsome will win.
Harris and another VP will be more problematic
That’s my hot take. Lol
Scott says:
“Lib/nats combined primary vote at State elections 36% have been on par with the federal lib/nats
Tasmania. If the liberal party primary vote is 36% they will not win a seat in Tasmania.”
I think the Libs will win Bass again. It’s always a very tight result there; Bridget Archer has good name recognition for crossing the floor on an integrity kinda issue and Labor don’t have a worthwhile candidate (yet).
And – astonishingly – I hear people in Tas talking up Dutton’s nuclear “policy”!! In a state that is virtually self-sufficient in renewables already and will become a net exporter in a few years once the Cethana pumped hydro and Marinus Link are built. Old loyalties defy logic.
An insurgent campaign by Bill Shorten to repair the National Disability Insurance Scheme has featured Pauline Hanson in a federal minister’s office…
_____________________
Where’s the outrage ?
Ha! Too true.
The Shovel@TheShovel
Anthony Albanese has called new UK PM Kier Starmer to say he’s on hand if he ever wants advice on how to slowly squander a majority by appeasing the opposition and avoiding all risk on the way to losing voter confidence
Taylormade @ #NaN Monday, July 8th, 2024 – 8:48 am
Why should there be outrage? It shows the Minister can reach across the aisle.
Yes frednk750am
Spot-on comment. Here in Oz, there’s always much discussion about polls and their interpretation- suitably flavoured with large doses of partisanship. The MSM commentary, with some exceptions, is always sensationalising the results- as is their raison d’etre.
It’s time to stop listening to or reading these pundits- just stick with WBs commentary based on statistics. The only poll that counts is the election- and didn’t the polls in the UK and France get it wrong with regard to both Reform and Len Pens polling?
Let’s now see how the US election goes……and the media polling opinion there points to a closey or win for Trump……
https://apple.news/AHiOagDIaTh-ZeNK5PSTacw, FPTP, a third of Pommy votes for two thirds of MPs
Pied Piper:
There are 100 thousand Aussies living in Lebanon.
Wow!
Not all Muslims, but I doubt any would be happy with Labor’s wishy washiness over the War.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, and some consequential news overnight.
The French elections are the best result possible at present, with Le Pen in third place.
News that Biden may be being treated for Parkinson’s disease is confirmation of what we all suspected. How did the White House think they would get away with concealing that? Harris plus another to be determined must be the Democrat ticket.
Gettysburg1863
The only poll that counts is the election- and didn’t the polls in the UK and France get it wrong with regard to both Reform and Len Pens polling?
Polls in the UK overestimated Labor’s support by 7-10 pts, underestimated Conservatives by 3-6, overestimated Reform by a couple.
The Reform blanket dragged down 200 Conservative MPs, let’s see what Farage has to say when Starmer introduces his Hard Left agenda?
Sorry?
As of today only Victoria on PB has not wavered in her belief that Biden can win Nov election.
I would have believed you if 2 black swan political events did not happen in last 2 weeks.
1. The worst presidential debate performance by a POTUS in living memory, where his age and mental capacity were in full view like a deer in front of car headlights
2. SCOTUS immunity decision to Trump because of which his Convicted Felon sentence (atleast) by Judge Merchan needed to be postponed till September.
There is no way Biden can make a comeback feom this disaster. If he stays in the race, Democrats are not only going to handover the keys to Trump but also keys to majority Republican Senate and Majority Republican HOR.
Sohar, why do you ruin my good morning with such satire 🙁
@Lordbain, Sorry I didn’t continue the conversation about the election outcomes in 1933 Germany, got busy with the kids. I had thoughts, but probs not worth continuing to unpack.
MI thats perfectly ok, life outside should always come first!
Ven:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 9:12 am
[‘There is no way Biden can make a comeback from this disaster.’]
I wouldn’t be so sure of that if I were you. Remember, Le Pen, for instance, was a shoo-in according to polling.
”
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 9:12 am
Gettysburg1863
The only poll that counts is the election- and didn’t the polls in the UK and France get it wrong with regard to both Reform and Len Pens polling?
Polls in the UK overestimated Labor’s support by 7-10 pts, underestimated Conservatives by 3-6, overestimated Reform by a couple.
The Reform blanket dragged down 200 Conservative MPs, let’s see what Farage has to say when Starmer introduces his Hard Left agenda?
Sorry?
”
Badthinker is as usual playing loosevwith facts.
“The Reform blanket dragged down 200 Conservative MPs”
No it did not. If Tory+Reform vote was the reality(which is not), then Tories could have won anothet 94 seats from Labour and LibDems. There would still be a majority Labour government or hung parliament at worst with Labour in position to foorm government.
BTW, when Labour was defeated in 2010, Tories formed coalition government with Lib Dems because thet did not have majority seats
”
Mavissays:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 9:25 am
Ven:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 9:12 am
[‘There is no way Biden can make a comeback from this disaster.’]
I wouldn’t be so sure of that if I were you. Remember, Le Pen, for instance, was a shoo-in according to polling.
”
Mavis
The forecast was not for “Le Pen would be shoo-in” but RN would get anywhere between (190-240) seats.
And that forecast was before tactical withdrawals by Macron and LFP were known
#weatheronPB
Calm complexity.
Layers glide over layers,
challenging the sun.
Key quote:
“Remember, the honeymoon period won’t last forever, so my advice is to seize the moment by not doing anything that could remotely upset anyone”.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/07/08/anthony-albanese-calls-kier-starmer/
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 6:22 am
WOW! Oakeshott Country might be right!
Joe Biden’s doctor met with a leading Parkinson’s disease specialist at the White House earlier this year, it has emerged, amid ongoing questions about the US President’s health.
Dr Kevin O’Connor, Biden’s physician, met with Dr Kevin Cannard, a top neurologist, on January 17 and Cannard has visited the White House a further seven times in the last year.
Cannard, a “movement disorders specialist”, works at the Walter Reed Medical Centre, a military hospital in Maryland where Biden receives his checkups.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bidens-doctor-met-with-parkinsons-disease-specialist-at-the-white-house-20240708-p5jrs3.html
”
Surely, he must be taking some medicine by now.
The only way Democrats win in November is if Biden is admitted in “Walter Reed Medical Centre” in 1 week and steps down from contest.
10 US Democrat Congresspeople now calling on Biden to step down.
I reckon it will be 50 by the end of this week.
Pauline Hanson gets one thing right in recognising that the NDIS has been left riddled with rorts by the ATM Governments and Taylormade thinks it’s an outrage.
Obviously the LNP is a beneficiary of the NDIS, the rorts bit that is.
Agreed Lars and co… the interview did not go well.
And while as Marvis and others are right to point out where the polling has flopped, unless its polling in the same country/methodology/ etc its still the best info we have to work on
https://x.com/satpaper/status/1809790197581709649, https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2024/07/06/government-ignores-un-order-compensate-the-torres-strait, how much on that VTP&E, ‘from the Med to the Euphrates’ so not …, TRC, climate disruption … neither Green nor Teal
Huzzah for France
Not looking good for Biden. You’d think if that debate simply was a bad night due to sickness/travel/overpreparedness etc, he’d be quelling fears by doing daily interviews
Good Morning
Great result in French Second Round. A defeat for Macron’s style of Centrism. Good news for the EU. UK and France have seen a rise in the left meaning the EU remaining in the centre of politics is likely to continue,
Hopefully this is a very bad sign for Le Pen’s hopes of being President of France,
Badthinker @ #NaN Monday, July 8th, 2024 – 9:02 am
Yeah, it should be full tilt Netanyahu, shouldn’t it, Badthinker?
If Biden was diagnosed with Parkinson’s then they only way I can see them legitimately tapping Harris on the shoulder is if Biden also resigns the presidency.
If Harris flames out in October then all the others who have been lining up still have their powder dry for 2028.
In shocking news from USA, therate of women getting sterilised to avoid abortion issues in future has doubled after Roe was overturned
Rate of young women getting sterilized doubled after Roe was overturned
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/7/2250311/-Rate-of-young-women-getting-sterilized-doubled-after-Roe-was-overturned?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“After Roe was overturned in June 2022, doctors said a wave of young people like Ferst started asking for permanent birth control like tubal ligations, in which the fallopian tubes are removed, or vasectomies.
New research published this spring in JAMA Health Forum shows how big that wave of young people is nationally.
University of Pittsburgh researcher Jackie Ellison and her co-authors used TriNetX, a national medical record database, to look at how many 18- to 30-year-olds were getting sterilized before and after the ruling. They found sharp increases in both male and female sterilization. Tubal ligations doubled from June 2022 to September 2023, and vasectomies increased over three times during that same time, Ellison said. Even with that increase, women are still getting sterilized much more often than men. Vasectomies have leveled off at the new higher rate, while tubal ligations still appear to be increasing.”
More American women are saying No thanks to American and decided not to have kids at all. What will MAGA Republicans to these women do when they come to power? Will theytreat this treatthem like “witches” of Salem in 17th century?
Luigi comments on Bass and Tasmania. Seconded. If Labor hangs on to the 2 ALP seats here that’s as good as it is likely to get till we find better candidates.
Sohar says:
Monday, July 8, 2024 at 9:35 am
Key quote:
“Remember, the honeymoon period won’t last forever, so my advice is to seize the moment by not doing anything that could remotely upset anyone”.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/07/08/anthony-albanese-calls-kier-starmer/
_____________________
So we just all pretending that the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum didn’t happen now?
Sorry
Correction. That was Scott 1 not Scott on France.
Bizzcan @ #95 Monday, July 8th, 2024 – 10:16 am
Albo had a sudden rush of blood to the head on election eve.
He got over it.
Whoever the Democratic Candidate Is, Americans Have Already Lost
“However poorly Biden performed at that debate (and he was embarrassing), debates are theater. However ill equipped the Democratic Party is to provide an heir apparent — and they are embarrassingly unprepared for this predictable eventuality — their dysfunction is not the clear and present danger. The Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity is a harbinger of not just the court’s growing power but of Democrats’ inability to mount a populist defense. This conservative bloc on the court reflects years of undemocratic political maneuvering, from Mitch McConnell stealing a seat to the political activism of Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas. Their decisions are not only codifying minority interests, they are a show of strength for a Republican Party that has no intention of ever ceding power to majority will again.
”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/opinion/biden-debate-scotus-immunity.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5U0.jQ4E.0nME2RGv713R&smid=url-share
Yeh look… between working with the Coalition on the NACC (while the crossbench, greens etc were begging to help), putting forward the Voice and then immediately putting a pause on anything else… what other major policies are Labor putting forward at the risk of political capital?
Labor didn’t meet the moment, the electorate wanted change , Labor delivered cautious incrementalism at best.
The reward for that will be minority govt.
Less than 10 months of the term to go – but it’s pretty clear this parly won’t go the distance.