The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.
The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.
A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:
• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).
• Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.
• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.
I’ve tended to be of the opinion that horseshoe theory is ultimately applying an incorrect explanation for a very real phenomenon, which is that authoritarian regimes inevitably end up looking very similar regardless of the ideology they purport to represent. Left, right, centrist, whatever… without the transparency and accountability that democracy and a free press brings, and with a person’s path to the top jobs in such regimes almost always requiring some combination of violence and Machiavellian subterfuge, you almost always end up with the same awful sociopaths in charge.
… the next CHOGM probably should see all the colonies, start with Barbados and Rhianna, go after the Poms on behalf of those impacted by settlement/ colonisation/ militia, slavery, opium, financial services, such as ATSI and the like.
Chucky III can always get centrists like Sir Keir to sell Buckingham Palace to a Russian to go with a nearby (round balls, world game) football club? Or may be more royal assets can go from funding the coffers to offset the civil list to a trust.
After all the Poms haven’t had a 14 Jul, just a Boer War to Brexit.
https://x.com/independentaus/status/1811288523166921001, bring on a referendum to remove the colonial Union Jack from the flag.
Lordbain says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Hey Griff, if your going to do this, then actually take a good shot;
With regards to Macron; heres an article pointing out how much he vilified the left going into the elections
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/french-elections-macron-made-key-mistakes-vilified-the-left.html
Heres an article pointing out how there was no unified message about dropping out to support the left, while the left did have a unified message to support the centrists
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/01/french-left-centrists-scramble-unite-against-far-right-election-runoff
Note that while the left had a unified message, Macrons was supporting “only clearly republican and democratic” which would by his own admission exclude the France Unbowed (LFI) party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The left said Macron’s position, and that of his centrists, had to be made more clear.
Also your study is about the sense of certainty voters have, and its relationship to either the left or right… and? As noted, you found one shared commonality, and then used this to say “look, they are both the same!” My study (which you seem to claim ignores populism even though it doesnt but anyway) notes that the centre and the right share a favouring of autocratic systems… does this mean that fish hook theory is right?
Also, the biology comparison is an analogy, and I am very well aware the differences of the hard sciences and the soft sciences.
And the comment about 1984 was directed at TPOF.
Cool, lets use civil liberties; are we talking about theocratic systems? We talking anarchic? We talking left anarchist vs right anarchist? We talking soc dems vs ancaps vs monarchists?
Thats the point; the moment you look at the sheer volume of the systems, you can find commonalities of at least 1 point between most, even those that are extreme polar opposites. But thats like saying “hitler liked x, ergo your a nazi” its a stupid argument that doesnt actually say anything.
________
I am not aiming to take a shot. People such as yourself rarely admit to being wRONg on the internet. I am merely amusing myself by procrastinating from work 🙂
As for horseshoe theory, it is a legitimate source of academic debate. See https://ecpr.eu/Events/Event/PanelDetails/3246
You may want to move beyond wikipedia for a definition. My understanding is that Faye wrote about the tactics used by the extreme left and right rather than their ideology being similar. Hence, horseshoe, not circle.
As for Macron, thanks for the links. What did the centrist candidates actually do?
So, they were lying about oil and gas rigs hurting whales?
Over in the UK a YouGov poll has been released that polled Conservative Party Members of who they’d prefer as leader with these results:
Kemi Badenoch: 31%
Suella Braverman: 16%
Tom Tugendhat: 15%
Jeremy Hunt: 12% (has publicly declined to stand)
James Cleverly: 10%
Robert Jenrick: 7%
Priti Patel: 6%
Victoria Atkins: 2%
Putting the horseshoe theory to one side for a minute.
It’s interesting to note that, with current and former Dem politicians so far making no headway in trying to persuade Biden to step down, and with his medical advisers apparently being unwilling or unable to intercede, we are now seeing the intervention of a previously uninvolved medical expert in the form of emergency specialist Dr Doug Ross, aka George Clooney.
It’s pretty weird that a Hollywood star can make a bigger impact than leading politicians on an internal debate within a political party. But US politics have long been pretty weird.
Perhaps the Dems should make Clooney their new presidential candidate. He has never seemed to me to be especially bright, but he is handsome and dresses extremely well, and can undoubtedly deliver his lines with aplomb. And that combination of talents was enough to give ol’ Ronny Reagan eight years in the Oval Office. A Clooney vs Trump debate would certainly be something to behold!
Seriously, I think it’s good that the issue around Biden’s fitness for office is rapidly coming to a head. I thought he was going to be able to hang on by his fingernails, but I think the tide is now turning against him.
Griff, im well past wiki, but it represents the limit to the effort ill put into this forum. The moment i start spending time going through journals like its my old uni days for this place is the day the missus will chuck me of the balcony (at my own request).
Also i will note that even your link uses it mockingly, and again notes that voters who pick the left and right think somethings wrong with the current system… which is the most “no shit” statement known to man. Hell, out of the papers provided (based only on abstracts so naught me), one notes that the causation point of not trusting the system is a commonality (again, no shit), one notes that they both dont trust the European systems, but for different reasons (again, obvious), 2 argue both sides use populism (duh, and hardly a new discovery), and the final one notes that in the event of greece, both sides used nationalism to seek different ends, and to rebel against what they felt was undue pressure from the euro powers of Germany and France.
Also, i admit im wrong pretty often; i was wrong (and happily admitted it) about the Iran election. I was wrong (and gave due where due) about the Assange saga and the role of Labor. I was wrong in thinking Labor would never shift in the UN about Palestine (still weak, but not as weak as I thought). I was wrong that the Greens were going to out perform the vic election. Do i need to go on? Hell why note; i am shocked and happily wrong that Starmer is moving on certain topics (like Palestine and funding for public works) in a way i doubted he was capable of. I was wrong that the right didnt out perform the left and centre (i hoped the left would win, but hope and expectation are very different).
Happy to say when im wrong
Also this pre-election poll of who Tory members would prefer in head-to-head contests is interesting, given that it’s likely to be a multi-round election for leader.
Seems like it’s going to be a close one at this stage.
FUBARsays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:24 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 3:56 pm
“The science is clear: offshore wind farms don’t hurt whales.
So, they were lying about oil and gas rigs hurting whales?
===================================================
Who were? Any source for that?
Certainly oil spills from oil/gas rigs do though. Probably pure gas rigs (no oil) are not a major danger to them.
Though can you point to any oil/gas offshore rig proposal that was blocked because it endangered whales. I’m aware exploration regions embargoes. Which are the same for offshore wind farms too. As only a small region is currently allowed for them too. While allowed oil/gas offshore exploration zones are much more extensive.
@VTC:
“Chucky III can always get centrists like Sir Keir to sell Buckingham Palace to a Russian”
What is this drivel?
The threat to capitulate to Russia comes from the hard right who love Putin and from parts of the extreme left who are so knee jerk anti American and anti NATO they swallow Russian propaganda wholesale (speaking of the horseshoe theory, Russia+Ukraine is a classic example of where the ends of the horseshoe are allied vs the centre despite having different reasons for their positions).
It does not come from the likes of Keir Starmer
And by the way, the Brits made the oligarchs give up their Premier League football clubs when the war began.
Kirk, that table is… certainly something. Braverman just wont die…
Swinging voters are the people who determine the outcome of elections. They do not align themselves with either the loony left or extreme right.
They listened to the Prime Minister who campaigned with great success in 2019 “want a strong health system, education, and all other services that people rely on – you need a strong economy to fund it”.
What I always believed in, well said Sco Mo, all the way to election victory.
The loony left, left perpetually whinging!
VTC Et3e @ #1501 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 5:21 pm
You are Captain Cooked. 😐
Lordbain says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:34 pm
Griff, im well past wiki, but it represents the limit to the effort ill put into this forum. The moment i start spending time going through journals like its my old uni days for this place is the day the missus will chuck me of the balcony (at my own request).
Also i will note that even your link uses it mockingly, and again notes that voters who pick the left and right think somethings wrong with the current system… which is the most “no shit” statement known to man. Hell, out of the papers provided (based only on abstracts so naught me), one notes that the causation point of not trusting the system is a commonality (again, no shit), one notes that they both dont trust the European systems, but for different reasons (again, obvious), 2 argue both sides use populism (duh, and hardly a new discovery), and the final one notes that in the event of greece, both sides used nationalism to seek different ends, and to rebel against what they felt was undue pressure from the euro powers of Germany and France.
Also, i admit im wrong pretty often; i was wrong (and happily admitted it) about the Iran election. I was wrong (and gave due where due) about the Assange saga and the role of Labor. I was wrong in thinking Labor would never shift in the UN about Palestine (still weak, but not as weak as I thought). I was wrong that the Greens were going to out perform the vic election. Do i need to go on? Hell why note; i am shocked and happily wrong that Starmer is moving on certain topics (like Palestine and funding for public works) in a way i doubted he was capable of. I was wrong that the right didnt out perform the left and centre (i hoped the left would win, but hope and expectation are very different).
Happy to say when im wrong
___________
Fair dues in your response.
While you may not agree with the arguments put forward in the paper abstracts at that political science conference, you would agree that horseshoe theory is academically debated? Again, I am not saying it is correct. Nor am I saying it is incorrect for that matter. After all, it is a political theory 😉
Lordbain – PM Melenchon looms.
You were spot on with that electoral result and Melenchon is now in the box seat, so don’t put yourself down. I would say within a week, Macron will bite his lip and appoint Jean Luc. Apparently they hate each other and can’t be in the same room together, so it will be an interesting period in French politics. Macron, no doubt, will force another election if he needs to.
Griff, I would argue it isnt a theory because it doesnt meet the definition 😉
Would you be comfortable with the following; a broad, natural explanation for a wide range of phenomena. Theories are concise, coherent, systematic, predictive, and broadly applicable, often integrating and generalizing many hypotheses. They must also be falsifiable.
So Horseshoe theory purports… what?
What evidence is there to support this?
And most importantly; who would you prove it wrong?
Until these are defined, I argue it doesnt meet the criteria, and is simply at most a hypothesis.
@Lordbain at 5:38pm
It looks like a similar situation to the 2022 Tory leadership election on who would replace Boris Johnson, with Rishi Sunak getting a plurality on the first vote but the crazies ended up piling up their preferences to eventually elect Liz Truss when Penny Mordaunt was eliminated.
Thankfully for the UK, this is for the position of Opposition Leader, not Prime Minister this time.
I can’t believe some here have a problem with most businesses being forced to close on ANZAC Day.
It’s one day for goodness sake, why shouldn’t we honour those who have served our country in the past the way we do? Sheesh.
Lordbain @ #1512 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 5:38 pm
The recent trajectory of Tory leaders – i.e. … Cameron … May … Johnson … Truss … Sunak … apparently demands that each new leader has to be demonstrably far worse than the one before.
If the Tories want to keep this up, it would seem to indicate that the next leader has to be Braverman. But picking the one after that gets a bit tricky – Barrel. Bottom of.
Lordbain says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:45 pm
Griff, I would argue it isnt a theory because it doesnt meet the definition
Would you be comfortable with the following; a broad, natural explanation for a wide range of phenomena. Theories are concise, coherent, systematic, predictive, and broadly applicable, often integrating and generalizing many hypotheses. They must also be falsifiable.
So Horseshoe theory purports… what?
What evidence is there to support this?
And most importantly; who would you prove it wrong?
Until these are defined, I argue it doesnt meet the criteria, and is simply at most a hypothesis.
________
Nice one! In accordance with the principle of falsifiability you are required to disprove that it is a theory. Back to work 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7Rab6SZKzM
A game of football, a boom, then scattered bodies: video shows moment of Israeli strike on Gaza school
As death toll from strike rises to 31…..
_____________
What’s the definition of terrorism?
Centre @ #1519 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 5:47 pm
Honour them with idleness, gambling and drugs? Actually, I think you may have a good point.
@Player One at 5:49pm
One possibility is that they decide “Well, Nigel’s out there promising to blow our house down and he probably will next election, so why not just invite him into our house of sticks to be leader and let him try and turn it into a house of bricks?”
meher baba says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Clooney does have the advantage that he’s known Biden for some time and actually met him within the last few weeks. He’s able to compare the pair, so to speak.
Time for me to tap out. Real life intrudes.
Lordbain at 5.15
chum?
Protestors against them. Don’t tell me you missed them.
As would one from a turbine gearbox.
I was referring to the protestors and their messaging.
Kirsdarke @ #1525 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 5:55 pm
Good plan. Then they could save Braverman for the next round.
Centresays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:38 pm
Swinging voters are the people who determine the outcome of elections. They do not align themselves with either the loony left or extreme right.
They listened to the Prime Minister who campaigned with great success in 2019 “want a strong health system, education, and all other services that people rely on – you need a strong economy to fund it”.
What I always believed in, well said Sco Mo, all the way to election victory.
===================================================
Worst PM in Australia’s history, was secret Ministries ScoMo. Only the odd extreme ScoMo lover now has a good word to say about him. Most on his side have washed their hands of him too.
meher babasays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Putting the horseshoe theory to one side for a minute……
……perhaps the Dems should make Clooney their new presidential candidate.
===============================================================
I’m surprised they haven’t turned to Jay-Z, or Madonna. Obviously actors, singers and rappers have such an extensive knowledge of the world, than mere politicians. Mr.Clooney – go away Sir!
Hollywood! – Go away and make a movie pls. You want to get caught up in politics, then put your name on a ballot paper and let the public suss you out.
I’ve already said that Biden needs to go, and be replaced by Mrs Harris, preferably ASAP, to give her at least 3-4 months. Clearly Biden doesn’t want to go, so now we see “leaking” of medical records and Senior Democrat officials calling on him to go. They are trying to blast him out.
Surely there can’t be long for Pres.Biden to remain because the longer this goes on, we all know who wins, and it’s not just Mr Trump. World leaders are looking at this circus.
A Democrat Senator has broken ranks and called for Biden to go to bed.
You can understand how scared the Senators and Congressmen must be to express this. Career ending for them if it goes wrong. The fact that any are doing so openly shows how bad morale must be.
Centre, who is probably due for a name change:
And what a great job he did at providing all of those things!
nadia88 says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:59 pm
It’s ok if you agree with their politics. No?
Same for sports people.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/
Biden’s already ruined. These two have achieved what they set out to do, and I don’t see any option at this point other than move to Harris.
Whether there is a legitimate theory called ‘horse shoe’ I will leave it up to others to decide. What I do notice is those passionate on the more extreme right/left of politics seem to need dictionary-length contributions here to try to prove their point. Not only that, but their points while different in direction sound uncannily the same in style.
My observation is that when either extreme group in politics gets into power they also uncannily look and operate like one another. Power and wealth for the few. Poverty and repression of the many.
Yep, the momentum to replace Biden is starting to build.
You know, in 2022 the Democrats should have grounded Kamala Harris for the presidency. To be honest, I don’t even know how Trump won his nomination
The election should have been fought by Kamala Harris v Nikki Hayley. Still, it’s too late for the Democrats. President Trump mark 2 awaits.
The Democrats deserve it lol
Trump has long since eliminated independent thought. For some reason LIBERALS like Dutton turn to water when confronted by Trump.
Asha says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:02 pm
He did. On the vast majority of socioeconomic measures we are one of the best places in the world. All similar Western Economies are suffering from expensive housing.
I wonder what the original speech bubble said?
Am I missing something, because seamlessly replacing the original text is trivial these days. Why does it look like a literal cut-and-paste job?
FUBARsays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Entropy says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:36 p
Certainly oil spills from oil/gas rigs do though.
As would one from a turbine gearbox.
=====================================================
What medication are you on? A gearbox leak from a wind turbine would not make an oil slick anywhere near big enough to do much damage. Unlike from a oil rig.
” The death toll of animals that perished as a result of the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico may be 50 times higher than presently believed, according to a new study in the latest issue of Conservation Letters.
Until now, fatality figures have primarily been based on the number of recovered carcasses. Data on this varies depending on the source and the date of the count, but the authors report that as of Nov. 7, 2010, 101 whale, dolphin, and porpoise carcasses had been detected across the Northern Gulf of Mexico.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna42340813
Trump should go. Biden should go. Only one of them is getting that right.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:05 pm
When has been confronted by Trump?
Tricot says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:04 pm
Correct.
That’s all it comes down to. Fascism is campy and fun! Let’s vote for it.
Player One says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:57 pm
It’s a stupid plan and it isn’t going to happen.
FUBAR @ #1547 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 6:12 pm
You’ll have to be more specific. Stupid plans abound here on PB!
Even if mid last year Biden had been honest with voters, saying he was getting on, the old body isn’t what it once was, and he wouldn’t be seeking the party’s nomination after his term, the Democrats could’ve had a primary and chosen his replacement. Instead we are here.
Trump won the nomination because the Republican party is now a cult of one, and fealty to Dear Leader is the order of the day. Trump said it himself: he could literally stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and he wouldn’t lose any voters.
It’s a cult, it’s not a political party!
@centre – Nonsense – the election is far from done, if things change.
Biden going would be an opportunity for a dramatic reset (I think vastly underestimated by the commentariat) – would it last all the way to November? No idea.
There is an anti-Trump majority electorate, the issue is getting them to unite and turn out.
I have tremendous respect for President Biden, but his increasing disconnection and/or arrogance is showing he does not have the common sense or grace to see what’s going on and he’s not getting the advice he should be getting from those closest to him.
Biden’s legacy was the person who defeated Trump, if he doesn’t go, he will be the one enabling the return of a vengeful and unhinged Trump. While I don’t think Trump can actively turn the US into Russia, he can try very hard to turn it into Turkey.