The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.
The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.
A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:
• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).
• Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.
• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.
And Biden would’ve gone out a hero if he’d put country and party before personal ambition.
Trump won because it turns out it takes more then calling something populism and waving your finger at someone to convince them not to burn down a system that doesnt work for them
And the fact that the Parliamentary Conservatives will ignore this is exactly why they deserved to lose with Reform taking so much of their vote.
Fubar
Sco Mo and Frydenberg managed the economy through covid well. They put ideology aside and stimulated the economy saving many thousands of jobs. Had they not committed to AstraZenica as the vaccine of choice (which Labor also supported 100% I might add) the political environment might have been different today.
Rudd also did extremely well during the GFC.
Of the PM’s since Howard I rate them:
1. Morrison.
2. Rudd.
3. Gillard.
4. Abbott.
5. Turnbull, the worst (promised so much, delivered nothing, oh he changed the way we vote for the Senate hah).
Pity Gillard challenged Rudd, I think she could’ve potentially been the best.
OC
Good point. I have twice worked in Budapest for a period of a few months, and it is full of tiny apartments in 19th century buildings. The rents are very affordable.
I am guessing that Vienna, being an older capital, has even more of this type of accomodation.
In European cities, there are always lovely parks, markets, museums, pubs and other common spaces near where you live in your tiny unit. You can buy food and drink as you walk, and there are amazing play spaces for the kids.
This model is being replicated in Zetland / Waterloo where I live, and also in inner city Melbourne, and people are flocking to these areas.
This model has a lot to contribute to making housing more affordable. Increase the supply side, in places where people want to live.
Confessions / jt1983:
Absolutely!
It shocks me that anybody was shocked that Trump won the Republican nomination again.
That isn’t what the polling is saying.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/08/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-april-to-june-open-thread/comment-page-31/#comment-4323294
… DWYPLHAI, Cooks River renaming is imminent.
Rejoice?
BK
Yes ,merica is Fuc**d
Meanwhile in France, these are popping up everywhere:
Morrison was pushed kicking & screaming to move his slug ass into action when covid hit by the state premiers, leading the charge Dan Andrews.
Even when told what action was necessary Morrison managed to stuff it up.
There is no point in increasing housing where it is expensive. That doesn’t solve the housing crisis – it just gives wealthy people more choices.
DandM, a frenchman with a slightly stale baguette is no laughing matter 😉
Biden stepping aside would nobble the major Republican (Trump) campaign’s pitch against the Democrats: Biden is old and past it and no longer fit to govern.
Plus it immediately renders all those videos circulating on high rotation on socials of Biden stood there, mouth agog, looking like an escapee from the local nursing home null and void. They would practically disappear overnight if the Dems changed nominees.
Those videos are gold to the Trump campaign. They’re on high rotation out there (they even show up in my TikTok feed!), and they don’t have to pay a cent to distribute them. Low information voters aren’t watching CNN or MSNBC, or following Jake Tapper or Jim Acosta on X. They’re getting their information about Biden’s fitness for office direct from Biden himself thanks to the grabs from that ill-advised debate.
Find me a reputable poll where Trump is over 50% .
Biden’s issue isn’t because Trump is dominating him, it’s because he’s being hurt among key voters who turned out in 2020 for him, namely minority men and independents, but aren’t committing.
What’s required to flip this back to a Dem-leaning race is not much at all.
A Frenchman would not have a slightly stale baguette.
FUBARsays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:03 pm
nadia88 says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 5:59 pm
It’s ok if you agree with their politics. No?
Same for sports people.
==========================================
No I don’t support actors/actresses, singers & dancers running around telling elected officials how to run the country, whether they are from the left or right. Hollywood is good at making movies – sometimes – but they should keep out of politics unless they’re on the ballot. What is Clooney’s political expertise? What is Madonna or Jay-Z’s political expertise? What next, ring up Lady Gaga for her opinion!
What we are seeing in the U.S. is a replay of what happened in Australia in early 2013.
Remember Mr Swan “coming out swinging” with the comment of Mr Rudd having no labor values.
We’ve been here before. They are trying to blast out Biden. At least Australian singers et all kept out of it back then. At the moment, things in the U.S. are reaching crescendo
Asha @ #1554 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 6:23 pm
The Republican primary came up at a Bludger lunch in NSW last year – I think it was June we met for lunch. And those present were throwing names around as to likely successors. I just said straight out that Trump would be the Republican nominee, because, you know: it’s a cult!
Some were sceptical, even outright dismissive. But, the GOP is now a Trump cult, so naturally the party falls in line behind Dear Leader.
What’s going to be interesting is if by some small miracle Trump is defeated in November, who takes over the cult. Don Jnr? Or does Trump Snr continue to contest the next presidential campaign in 2028?
jt1983 says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:30 pm
Of the last 13 polls for Biden v Trump,one has been a tie, the rest have Trump leading.
Are they all wrong?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
See, the Bludgers here are even torn between the “Biden must go v Biden to stay camp”.
Imagine the Democrats themselves in real life LOL
All while Trump trumps into the Whitehouse!
I didn’t say Trump wasn’t ahead in polling.
I said there was a MAJORITY anti-Trump electorate.
The nuclear option is invoking the amendment to remove Biden as President – let’s hope it doesn’t get to that, and The Biden clan sees reason and lets him save his dignity before then.
Will Harris be uncontested – remains to be seen.
WB
I am back to post about a survey in America regarding voting nintensions among Asian Americans
Support for Biden among Indian-origin people drop by 19 percentage points
As Joe Biden’s presidential election campaign flounders, there is a sharp 19 percentage point decline in support from Indian-origin Americans between the last election of 2020 and 2024, according to a survey. The staggering drop of 19% is the largest among all Asian-American voters.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/us-news/story/biden-support-drop-indian-american-origin-people-2024-presidential-elections-trump-election-campaign-2565196-2024-07-11
”
The survey highlights that 46% of Indian Americans want to vote for Biden in 2024 as opposed to 65% in 2020. What more, the survey was conducted before Biden’s disastrous debate.
The survey was undertaken by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote), AAPI Data, Asian Americans Advancing Justice (AAJC) and AARP.”
“As for Asian Americans, 46% of Asian Americans who vote for Biden might vote for Biden, 9% below from 2020. On the other hand, 31% might vote for Trump, one point above 2020.”
“In 2020, an increase in the number of Asian-American voters, especially first-time voters, was crucial to Biden’s victory.”
Centre:
Why do you think it’s odd that there is a plurality of opinion here?
Seriously, I want the old Centre back. The one who was fun and irreverent and sensible.
Hey Ven, thanks for the data drop. Any thoughts on the reason why?
nadia88 says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:32 pm
It was so good having all those Entertainers, Sports Stars, Sporting Bodies and Clubs and ASX200 businesses telling us how to vote in the Voice referendum.
jt1983 says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:38 pm
Based on what evidence?
Update on Australian polling.
Well, there isn’t one.
I have been down the rabbit hole today including, Ipsos, Australia institute, Dynata, SEC Newgate, JWS Research & Ucomms. Very sad.
Hopefully YouGov soon, but should be a busy week next week regardless, which should give the site an indication of how the W.A. Senator issue/TAX cuts are playing out.
Rex
Why?
You bring up voluntary euthanasia for long-term prisoners every time someone here makes a comment that gives you an appropriate opening. My guess is that you favour the death penalty, and want to make it “optional and more humane”, until of course in the future, it stops being optional. Voila, you re-introduce the barbaric state-sanctioned murder that is Capital Punishment by stealth, normalising what we as a liberal society repudiated four decades ago.
Are you saying that jails should be such horrible places that prisoners would choose death instead? Are you saying that these people, from within their jail, have nothing to contribute to society. Many of them have a far lower IQ than the general populace, and have come from backgrounds of incredible disadvantage. And just look at the overrepresentation of the indigenous population in our jails.
Are you OK for them to (statistically) die in greater numbers because of the disadvantaged situation into which they were born?
Some prisoners go on to educate themselves, and can contribute to the body of knowledge about how to prevent the crimes they have committed in the first place. Is this worth nothing?
And what makes you think that their request for euthanasia would be “voluntary”? It would be very easy for prison guards / other prisoners to make an inmates life such hell that they would be choose death. Then, euthanasia is not “an option” , but something they are bullied into.
As the late, great Shelby Spong said, he was not in favour of the death penalty, because society as a whole contributes to who a person becomes, and how they act. We all have a responsibly to do everything we can to promote a non-violent society.
Biden claiming to be the “First black woman to serve with a black President”.
If you can’t see why that’s a problem then I worry about you deciding if you’re fit to drive a car.
Asha says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:23 pm
It’s not shocking since it became the Party of Trump.
I guess the primary system is vulnerable to outside takeover.
Confessions you were my favourite too haha x
I haven’t changed. 🙂 I changed my vote coz I could not vote for Shorten’s policies in 2019 and coz Chris Bowen told me to 🙂
My political party values are the same, honestly. I have a top, can’t decide if it’s blue or green, it gets binned, better to be safe than sorry LOL
For those complaining about Clooney being an actor and keeping out of it.
It’s his fundraising that gives him clout with the Democrats. Not his celebrity.
You are complaining about elite lobbyists. In the US system for good or bad money talks
Looking at the electoral calendar, the next significant world election seems to be in Venezuela on 28 July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election
According to opinion polls, it seems like voters there are very much prepared to throw out Maduro in favour of Edmundo González.
I don’t know much about him, but hope that he brings betterment to Venezuela. And boy do the Venezuelan voters hate Maduro. The latest poll taken from 4-7 July has González leading Maduro 72-12.
jt1983says:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:30 pm
Find me a reputable poll where Trump is over 50% .
=======================================
They have FPTP, so he doesn’t need to be over 50%.
Current U.S. polling link :
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
FUBAR @ #1573 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 6:40 pm
I bet you loved Ronnie Reagan.
Trump is a right wing nut. He should go.
Kirsdarke says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:49 pm
But will the result reflect the polls, or more importantly, the way people actually vote?
Who says that actors can’t be intelligent as well as handsome!?! Human Rights lawyer, Amal, certainly thinks her husband is both.
Speaking of George Clooney, I think he delivered a killer blow today on Joe Biden. He said that, at the campaign fundraiser for Biden which he held recently, Joe Biden behaved exactly the same way he did at the debate. Ouch!
In his opinion piece, Clooney wrote: “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010.
Just a few weeks after helping the president raise tens of millions at an LA fundraiser, George Clooney is calling on Joe Biden to step aside. It’s deeply damaging on several fronts.
“He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-11/joe-biden-pressure-drop-out-presidential-election-donald-trump/104084748
Boerwar@Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 3:13 pm
Never fear, our Rex will make sure they get the chance to be “voluntarily” euthanised on their 18th birthday.
Just imagine how much fun their years from 10 to 18 will be.
“Teacher”: You are reading enjoying algebra [now that you have enough to eat and a roof over your head]. Maybe you can take part in the maths Olympiad via Zoom,
“Child”: I would love to , but as I will die when I am 18, it would really hurt to interact with other teenagers who can go on and live full lives.
Lordbain
In the prison system, they will be the same thing.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:38 pm
The nuclear option is invoking the amendment to remove Biden as President – let’s hope it doesn’t get to that, and The Biden clan sees reason and lets him save his dignity before then.
=============================================
He’s got to go quietly, pull the sympathy vote from the public, and it’s important VP Harris has no blood on her hands. That is the only way, from what I can see of it.
The alternative is that there is a messy transition involving lawyers, Doctors and goodness forbid the Supreme Court, all in the lead-up to a Presidential election. Would be a disaster.
C@tmomma says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:55 pm
Maybe it was past Joe’s bedtime.
The Daily Show are making fun of Biden. If he continues he’s going to become a point of ridicule.
@bc at 6:55pm
That remains to be seen. I haven’t been keeping track on Venezuelan politics since 2012-13 with the transition between Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro with Henrique Capriles in opposition for both of those elections.
But if Maduro is re-elected with published opinion polls like that, I’ll assume it would be about as legitimate as elections in Russia and Belarus.
I think the risk is exactly that nadia88 – that in removing him all hope of winning is destroyed by the collateral damage inflicted by the process..
All it needs is a sane credible Democrat with governing experience to be the nominee and it’s over for Trump. Whether that is Harris I dont know.
I doubt Biden would resign immediately and hand over the Presidency to Harris.
Centresays:
Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 6:49 pm
Confessions you were my favourite too haha x
I haven’t changed. I changed my vote coz I could not vote for Shorten’s policies in 2019 and coz Chris Bowen told me to
===============================================
The selfish boomer vote over negative gearing and franking credits i assume. The central issue here is just self-centeredness i suspect. Not what is good for society but what is best for me, type voting attitude.
D&M I dont care what OC says, I love Vienna.
For those with the means I recommend the Spanish Riding School, such beautiful and intelligent horses. The humans not so much.
Bravo, Douglas and Milko @ 6.46pm!
Yes, every so often Rex Douglas shows us who he really is, and it’s not a pretty picture. Definitely not a warm and fuzzy Ultra Progressive, that’s for sure.
@bc at 7:02pm
Reminds me of one of my favourite scenes from The Thick of It
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALNjevGdB5g
“The cameramen are laughing.”
Ahoy there nadia88 – no polling yet but I do see sub 30 Primary Newspoll coming up. I am worried about Scott when it comes though.