Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 10 of 21
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  1. WB: “While I’d doubt that it would have too many liberal Democrats on its books, I’ve searched in vain for Demolition Ranch associating itself with any political position that doesn’t involve gun rights.”
    ———————————————————————————
    FWIW, they also don’t seem to like EVs.

    Also, Matt Carriker, who is the man behind the whole thing, is a devout Christian and also has a bit of a “prepper’ flavour to him.

    But I agree that he doesn’t seem to be a blatant promoter of far right political positions.

  2. To change the subject to another shooting. I see Alex Baldwin’s case was thrown out on what some might call a technicality.

    I don’t know if it was a deliberate attempt to withhold evidence by the Police or prosecution, or just shoddy work. In either case, I wonder how often this sort of thing happens, but the defendant can’t afford the legal talent to pick it up? Is this sort of thing normal practice by some Police forces who normally get away with it, and thought they would in this case too?

  3. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:45 pm
    What are the odds?
    Registered Republican fires shot at Trump?
    A million to one?
    _____________________
    You have reminded me of the scene in Chappaquiddick where the party operatives organised a valid driver’s license for Teddy Kennedy.
    The day after he drove off the bridge.

  5. Anybody else noticed that Murdoch media here and in the US is not reporting that the shooter was a registered republican, but is dedicating a lot of ‘opinion’ re: the radical left being behind or supportive of the attack? Thank Allah the nutter was not a muslim, black, migrant or democrat -but I’m sure the murdoch scum would be reporting any of those really loudly if he was.

  6. Meher Baba
    I suspect the Wiki article goes close to libel and I am not going to repeat it.
    There are more details in that masterclass of political writing “Whatever it takes” by Richo

  7. Trump would’ve lost a shoe or maybe two from the security protecting him on the ground.

    A slight movement of the head to the right and Trump could easily have been killed today. It makes you think, is it all random probability or fate?

    Trump could be close to greatness without realising it, he now has a reason, to do a John Howard and finally get rid of those bloody things (guns), he won’t though!

  8. OC: “Meher Baba
    I suspect the Wiki article goes close to libel and I am not going to repeat it.
    There are more details in that masterclass of political writing “Whatever it takes” by Richo”
    ———————————————————————————
    Fair enough: I was just stirring you. You left yourself open to it by the way you worded your comment.

  9. Unbelievable photo of the shooter taken just before shots fired Syd morn herald online.

    Seems like half the planet saw the shooter before the secret service did nothing until the shots rang out.

  10. Anybody else noticed that Murdoch media here and in the US is not reporting that the shooter was a registered republican …

    I just checked three Murdoch publications from both countries, and in each case it was the work of ten seconds to find the shooter identified as a registered Republican.

  13. ‘Team Katich says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 6:52 pm

    Derry Girls, on occasion, is the funniest TV show this Century.’
    —————————–
    Sort of. OH and myself, both of whom at times endured nunnish education found some of the humour rather close to the bone.

  14. Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 6:32 pm
    Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:45 pm
    What are the odds?
    Registered Republican fires shot at Trump?
    A million to one?
    _____________________
    You have reminded me of the scene in Chappaquiddick where the party operatives organised a valid driver’s license for Teddy Kennedy.
    The day after he drove off the bridge.
    ===============================================

    Reminds me more of the stupid right wing birther theory. Against all evidence right wing idiots still don’t believe Obama was born in the USA. So even though this guy has been a registered Republican voter since Sept 2021. There will be some right wing idiots telling us it was just made up now and records falsified. You aren’t planning on being one of those idiots are you?

  15. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 6:39 pm
    I’m glad that the shooter failed.
    I’m sorry that there was yet another assassination attempt in the US.
    =====================================
    I am too Boer.

    On other issues,
    it would appear no Resolve Poll tonight, or at least no update to their site.
    They join “YouGov” on my hate list and difficult to get off it once added.
    I’m not a big fan of Resolve anyway, so Resolve can go and Dissolve. Prefer Newspoll & RoyMorgan.

    Link for Resolve, if anyone wishes to monitor.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html

    There could still be a Freshwater poll this evening, via the AFR, but given the world events I assume it’s not much of a priority. Looks like we are all awaiting the next Roy Morgan tomorrow arvo at 5PM, or at least I am. Interesting day which I think has been well handled by the posters too.

  16. sprocket_ @ #416 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 5:32 pm

    Just on the early commentary, after FUBAR who is ex-military posted what he thought the weapon sounded like, I was just about to post ‘sounds like an AR15 in the distance’ to me, having fired and heard these myself on a rifle range. They do ‘pop’ sounds rapidly.

    Plus, the AR15 appears to be the mass shooting weapon of choice – flooding the markets in the US.

    He was 118m away, and got away 7 shots before the police sniper took him out within a few seconds.

    Whatever was motivating Thomas Matthew Crooks, 21, of Bethel Pa remains to be seen..

    Are they sure the shooter wasn’t this guy? 😉

  20. You know if the shot was round 1/20th of a degree to the right, we would now be speculating on who out of DeSantis, Haley or Trump Jnr would be the Republican nominee, while right wing social media would be full of conspiracy theories around the deep state, Crooks being a patsy and there being a second shooter.

  21. I just checked three Murdoch publications from both countries, and in each case it was the work of ten seconds to find the shooter identified as a registered Republican.
    ——-

    I looked at sky, Fox and the Oz, and it certainly wasn’t being highlighted amongst a flurry of pieces stating or implying the left were behind it. They seem slower off the mark to report it and are giving it less prominence than other media.

  22. The shooter made one singular $15 donation to the liberal ActBlue political action committee on January 20, 2021 — Biden’s Inauguration Day, the Intercept reported.

    N.Y. Post

    ActBlue Charities Inc.[1] is an American political action committee and fundraising platform established for serving left-leaning and Democratic nonprofits and politicians

    Donated to a Leftist organisation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue

    In Pennsylvania, only registered party members can participate in a political party’s primary election

    Registered as a Republican to vote in Republican primary.
    https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_elections_in_Pennsylvania

  23. I looked at sky, Fox and the Oz …

    You can’t have looked very hard. On the very front page of The Australian’s website, not far from the top, is an article that opens: “Registered Republican Thomas Matthew Crooks bear-crawled onto a one-storey building and within minutes opened fire.”

  24. I guess any chance Biden had of a second term went down the toilet today. I worry what this will do to democracy in the US if Trump wins and if he loses. What a mess.

  27. “The shooter made one singular $15 donation to the liberal ActBlue political action committee on January 20, 2021 — Biden’s Inauguration Day, the Intercept reported.”

    The shooter was so young – 20. In January 2021, if it is the same individual in question, he would have been, what, 16, 17 – old enough to have opinions, certainly, but old enough to legally donate in the jurisdiction concerned? Could it have been a donation by a family member on his behalf, a tongue-in-cheek jest if his views were otherwise (though I’d imagine probably illegal, if so)?

    Nothing can be assumed and yet narratives are being written.

  29. I guess any chance Biden had of a second term went down the toilet today.
    Not necessarily.
    114 days to go, Trump won’t be holding any more outdoor rallies, which brings him back to the field.

  30. Why would Trump being shot in the ear mean Biden has no chance. In fact it could be argued that many will see this as another example of the chaos surrounding Trump. I hope Trump is ok by the way but this has got to shake his confidence, it certainly would mine.

  33. Meanwhile the SMH reported poll had 11% giving their PV to Independents , not far behind the Greens on 14% . It seems the trend of 25-30% of people not backing the blue or red camps is going to continue to 2025 at least. CLIMATE 200 has backed 10 campaigns for 2025 already and wants to invest in “up to 30” including current Independent seat holders. I’ve identified 20 currently active Voices of Groups, xxx Matters or Voices For Groups targeting 2025 so far and all of them are targeting Coalition held seats. The noteable one almost noone it talking about in Qld is Groom where an Indy got into 40s 2PP in 2022.

  34. Lots of people can’t help themselves in a disaster like a plane crash and grab things that slow them down, like shoes, reducing their chance of survival.
    I saw a few die going back into a house fire for pets and photos.

  37. Sandman – which SMH poll are you referring too.
    Can you provide a link pls, as it looks like you are quoting the figures from the 16-Jun Resolve Poll.

  38. Warrigal @ #476 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 7:43 pm

    “The shooter made one singular $15 donation to the liberal ActBlue political action committee on January 20, 2021 — Biden’s Inauguration Day, the Intercept reported.”

    The shooter was so young – 20. In January 2021, if it is the same individual in question, he would have been, what, 17, maybe 18 – old enough to have opinions, certainly, but old enough to legally donate in the jurisdiction concerned? Could it have been a donation by a family member on his behalf, a tongue-in-cheek jest if his views were otherwise (though I’d imagine probably illegal, if so)?

    Nothing can be assumed and yet narratives are being written.

    Mainly by one self-interested poster who wants to direct attention to anywhere but the Radical Right.

  40. With Trump’s near death experience I thought of JFK’s assasination and where I was at the time: playing cricket on Gerringong (NSW) Oval. Play was briefly stopped.

  41. I agree entirely with William. There’s enough bullshit going to be put about on this topic without inventing more. That goes for making up stuff about News as much as nothinker’s imaginary Antifa shit.

    @bc – yeah I saw the Alec Baldwin story yesterday. Textbook what not to do by the prosecution especially in the US where they are much stricter and have less discretion to overlook breaches of evidence law. Hard to say how often prosecutors do this and get away with it.

    It may well be that the bullet evidence is total bullshit created by a friendly party to try and get the armourer off. But the system does not let the prosecutor decide that alone without disclosing it to the defence.

  44. Sad to see Mary Kostakidis a raving anti-Semite but hey, I got to give her props for highlighting a Hezbollah speech that makes it explicitly clear that the from the river to the sea line is still about genociding all Jews in that region, for the benefit of naive protesters in the West who don’t realise what they’re chanting for.

  45. Princeplanet:

    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 7:49 pm

    [‘Why would Trump being shot in the ear mean Biden has no chance.’]

    I think it was John Barron (“Planet America” co-host) who on News Radio said something similar but didn’t elaborate. I can’t see today’s events having any effect on Biden’s re-election chances.

  47. All good Sandman – I thought so. I know those resolve primaries like an elephant’s memory.
    I’m one of the sites “poll lunatics” – I usually just drop by for a poll and a bit of follow up chit-chat with the sites’, “big looneys”, but keep out of most of the other stuff.

  48. Can tomorrow’s dawn patrol just do Trump shooter visual memes, there’s just so many great ones out there.

  49. Arky @ #493 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 8:16 pm

    Sad to see Mary Kostakidis a raving anti-Semite but hey, I got to give her props for highlighting a Hezbollah speech that makes it explicitly clear that the from the river to the sea line is still about genociding all Jews in that region, for the benefit of naive protesters in the West who don’t realise what they’re chanting for.

    I’m especially pissed off at Fatima Payman for disingenuously trying to impute that, when she said it, she only meant it in a nursery rhyme and innocuous sense. Yeah right. 😐

  50. Sustainable futuresays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 7:27 pm
    I looked at sky, Fox and the Oz, and it certainly wasn’t being highlighted amongst a flurry of pieces stating or implying the left were behind it. They seem slower off the mark to report it and are giving it less prominence than other media.
    _____________________
    Top story on the Herald Sun website. 3rd paragraph and they are not very long paragraphs.
    I just got the stopwatch out – 7 seconds from clicking on the article

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